Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

[Marcus G. Daniels]

Steve writes:

“Gary and Jill (and the others) may be irrelevant in the sense that neither has a chance of "winning the contest", but I would claim that yet another presumed irrelevant (Bernie Sanders) HAS significantly shaped the discussion and possibly the shape of Hillary's platform and possibly even policy once in office.  I also believe that they are reshaping the field itself.   Jill has been promoting ranked choice voting for months now... THAT is a significant change to the playing field and one that I claim will help our elections more accurately reflect "the will of the people" rather than distort and manipulate it.”

Bernie’s campaign was exciting and it seems Hillary did benefit from his constituents tactics and enthusiasm.  (We’ll see tonight how some undecided voters split in battleground states.)  In the end, the average donation to Hillary’s campaign was $43 (over more than 3 million people).  Seems to me it could scale to billion dollar campaign costs if everyone was engaged.  And the `market’ could be much more interesting with ranked choice voting (and a richer ecology of fundraising).   I think there is an aspect of governing that is about maturity, patience, long term relationships, and knowing how to work the system, and that is an area I believe the less experienced participants like Jill Stein will have no chance for some time.   Bernie was a plausible candidate because he knew his way around Washington.

 

Marcus

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[Roger Critchlow-2]

The flaw with Coulter's argument, I realized as walking to the poll, is that there wouldn't be any filthy grandson of a German immigrant on the ballot for all those three generation born in americans to vote into office.  In fact, I expect that there would be a fairly tiny population of people with all four grandparents born in the US.

-- rec --

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 10:56 AM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

In contrast to this one.

 

http://www.thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/304867-coulter-trump-would-win-if-only-people-whose-grandparents-born

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Robert J. Cordingley
Sent: Tuesday, November 08, 2016 8:34 AM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

as is this:

http://election.scholastic.com/vote/

Robert C

 

On 11/5/16 12:20 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Somewhat more optimistic, from my point of view:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone <a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918" value="[phone]" target="_blank">[phone]

 

On Nov 5, 2016 11:42 AM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting 538 info-graphic, which also makes the 65%-35% "chance to win" much less secure: 

 

   -- Owen

 

The winding path to 270 electoral votes

 

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

 

 

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 10:55 AM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

That is really good, Frank. 

 

Thanks,

 

Nick

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Saturday, November 05, 2016 10:06 AM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Lesser of two evils?

Posted on Facebook by Ricky Martin

Trump admitting sexual assault. Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud. Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation. Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk. Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba. Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud. Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA. Clinton emails. Trump doesn't pay taxes for 20 years. Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia. Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US. Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate. Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia's Crimea occupation. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria. Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination. Clinton emails. Trump files for bankruptcy 6 times. Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics. Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs. Clinton emails. Trump calls Mexicans rapists. Clinton emails. Trump questions judge's integrity because of parent's heritage. Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal. Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after Florida hurricane. Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse. Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms America for being overweight. Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am. Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo. Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used. Clinton emails. Trump asks why cant we use our nukes if we have them. Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger. Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists. Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions. Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people. Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press. Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a Chinese hoax. Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un's strong leadership. Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate. Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate non-citizen hundreds of times over 7 years. Clinton emails. Trump uses campaign donations to enrich his own businesses. Clinton emails. Trump says laziness is an inherent trait in black people. Clinton emails.

Frank Wimberly
Phone <a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918" target="_blank">[phone]

 

On Nov 4, 2016 5:31 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Oh.  Ok;  I thought you meant Liberals and I could not make that work.  Thanks for the clarification.

 

n

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 2:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Nick --

 

Just joking that Libertarians (ie libbies) should refuse to take campaign funding from the government and refuse to participate in government run elections, or they're clearly acting as LINO's (Libertarians In Name Only).  Sorry, it was an old joke the first time.

 

-- rec --

 

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 4:12 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hi Roger,

 

Perhaps my humor and imagination have been totally destroyed by this election (which somebody aptly described as a political dumpster fire), but … I didn’t understand your comment,  AND I want to.

 

Nick

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 1:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Aren't the libbies constitutionally required to disdain funding from the government?  Seems like they should disdain elections, too, hold out for victory by acclamation?

 

-- rec --

 

 

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:28 PM, ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]> wrote:

On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Very nice presentation.  Thanks, Marcus!

On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their mouths are were saying:
>
> https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

That's only 1 market.  Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this list?) aggregates some markets:
http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ChartPres.png

But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of course, in various amounts.  So, it's not clear whether these markets are predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be.

> Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"?   There sure is a lot of volatility!

My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the late-comers digging into the subject.  Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed their opinion.  More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't affect that.  But those who only started really paying attention last month may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's and Trump's foibles and qualities.  The falsifying question would be: What % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started digging?

I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also forget where I learned about that one. [sigh]

> Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and automatic ballot inclusion next round.

It would be great to see the Green party get the funding.  I wouldn't celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though.

--
␦glen?

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-- 

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Web Design & Development

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

I wonder how many people that fit Coulter’s constraint (me) would be willing to delegate their vote to others?   Can I specify it be to a Hispanic illegal immigrant in Florida that would like to be a registered democrat?   Can I pay their employer to give them the day off and pay a reliable Uuber driver to get them to the polls?   Can I buy them lunch?   How can I maximally annoy Coulter?  I would like that.    

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Tuesday, November 08, 2016 10:02 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

The flaw with Coulter's argument, I realized as walking to the poll, is that there wouldn't be any filthy grandson of a German immigrant on the ballot for all those three generation born in americans to vote into office.  In fact, I expect that there would be a fairly tiny population of people with all four grandparents born in the US.

 

-- rec --

 

 

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 10:56 AM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

In contrast to this one.

 

http://www.thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/304867-coulter-trump-would-win-if-only-people-whose-grandparents-born

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Robert J. Cordingley
Sent: Tuesday, November 08, 2016 8:34 AM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

as is this:

http://election.scholastic.com/vote/

Robert C

 

On 11/5/16 12:20 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Somewhat more optimistic, from my point of view:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone <a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918" target="_blank">[phone]

 

On Nov 5, 2016 11:42 AM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting 538 info-graphic, which also makes the 65%-35% "chance to win" much less secure: 

 

   -- Owen

 

The winding path to 270 electoral votes

 

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

 

 

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 10:55 AM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

That is really good, Frank. 

 

Thanks,

 

Nick

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Saturday, November 05, 2016 10:06 AM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Lesser of two evils?

Posted on Facebook by Ricky Martin

Trump admitting sexual assault. Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud. Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation. Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk. Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba. Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud. Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA. Clinton emails. Trump doesn't pay taxes for 20 years. Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia. Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US. Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate. Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia's Crimea occupation. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria. Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination. Clinton emails. Trump files for bankruptcy 6 times. Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics. Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs. Clinton emails. Trump calls Mexicans rapists. Clinton emails. Trump questions judge's integrity because of parent's heritage. Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal. Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after Florida hurricane. Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse. Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms America for being overweight. Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am. Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo. Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used. Clinton emails. Trump asks why cant we use our nukes if we have them. Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger. Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists. Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions. Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people. Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press. Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a Chinese hoax. Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un's strong leadership. Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate. Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate non-citizen hundreds of times over 7 years. Clinton emails. Trump uses campaign donations to enrich his own businesses. Clinton emails. Trump says laziness is an inherent trait in black people. Clinton emails.

Frank Wimberly
Phone <a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918" target="_blank">[phone]

 

On Nov 4, 2016 5:31 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Oh.  Ok;  I thought you meant Liberals and I could not make that work.  Thanks for the clarification.

 

n

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 2:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Nick --

 

Just joking that Libertarians (ie libbies) should refuse to take campaign funding from the government and refuse to participate in government run elections, or they're clearly acting as LINO's (Libertarians In Name Only).  Sorry, it was an old joke the first time.

 

-- rec --

 

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 4:12 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hi Roger,

 

Perhaps my humor and imagination have been totally destroyed by this election (which somebody aptly described as a political dumpster fire), but … I didn’t understand your comment,  AND I want to.

 

Nick

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 1:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Aren't the libbies constitutionally required to disdain funding from the government?  Seems like they should disdain elections, too, hold out for victory by acclamation?

 

-- rec --

 

 

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:28 PM, ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]> wrote:

On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Very nice presentation.  Thanks, Marcus!

On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their mouths are were saying:
>
> https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

That's only 1 market.  Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this list?) aggregates some markets:
http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ChartPres.png

But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of course, in various amounts.  So, it's not clear whether these markets are predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be.

> Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"?   There sure is a lot of volatility!

My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the late-comers digging into the subject.  Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed their opinion.  More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't affect that.  But those who only started really paying attention last month may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's and Trump's foibles and qualities.  The falsifying question would be: What % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started digging?

I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also forget where I learned about that one. [sigh]

> Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and automatic ballot inclusion next round.

It would be great to see the Green party get the funding.  I wouldn't celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though.

--
␦glen?

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[Steve Smith]

Glen -

I appreciate the nuance here.  

I have been dealing with crypto-fascists all of my life... we have discussed the libertarian vs the Libertarian,  I have endured the years where Lefty political correctness was approaching fascism and I have had to endure the Righty style fascism that seems to be hitting a crescendo under the rallying cry of that "man-child" running for president.

I isolate myself enough in daily life so as NOT to have to spend too many cycles on this constant interpretation, for those who do not have that luxury, I understand that this can be deeply painful to the psyche if not the soul.

I refer you to the musical observations of the philosophers known as "They Might be Giants":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-nuHCTA5E

Unfortunately, *I* believe that the language we use in our communication deeply informs the language we use to think... and that by adjusting our discourse with others can lead us to think (for better or worse) differently.  I believe that the damage being done to our culture today is as much the way our thinking is modified by this presidential race as it is the possible outcomes.   We are leading ourselves to believe that our only two choices are to become a xenophobic, retrograde, bigoted people or to continue with a status quo which is clearly not serving many, many people very well.  

While I don't completely agree with or support Jill and the Greens, I DO appreciate the alternative rhetoric they have offered.  Her *very* low polling indicates to me that either *many* of us really aren't willing to think outside of one of the two boxes offered to us, OR, there is something specifically wrong with their message that *I* am not getting?

What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".

- Steve

On 11/8/16 8:25 AM, ┣glen┫ wrote:

Right.  It's not quite right to suggest that switching codes is bimodal or bivalent.  I think it's more of a spectrum, at least in an informal sense.  If we were talking about a person trying to communicate a complex idea in a non-native language then switching to their native language, that would be more bimodal.  But I'm talking more about, eg, realizing in the middle of a conversation that you're talking to a crypto-fascist who puts up a good veneer at first, then reveals their fascism over the course of the conversation.  When I realize it, I switch, either to something that will completely alienate the person, or to language that makes me sound more like a fascist, depending on how I feel at the time.

Marcus' idea of a an interpreter vs. languages closer to the bare metal is, I think, akin to Nick's idea of imaginary vs. factual.  And the gist is solid.  There's a very high overhead interpreting through many layers of abstraction or entertaining imaginary worlds through the suspension of disbelief.  It's a luxury we can't always afford.  But both assume there exists a bare metal.  I'm a constructivist, for the most part, and believe all our languages are interpreted and there really is no such thing as a natural, close to the metal, machine code.  There are no linguistic or cognitive facts, only action facts.  And this may be closer to what you're trying to say, because that means that we are always interacting through an interpreter, albeit sometimes many layers out vs. only a few layers out.



On 11/07/2016 08:05 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

I guess I already feel I have to "code switch" all the time already...  I have to speak a pidgin of Left/Right/Green/Libertarian/Anarchist just to communicate with my friends and colleagues on these matters.  I understand and agree that in world D, the emergent patois will be much less familiar/comfortable than the one I have now and that in world H, it will be much more familiar, less abrupt of a change.  I guess I assumed that Agent G and agent M were more like me in this regard than maybe they are.

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[gepr]

There's a lot to [dis]agree with, here. >8^D  But I'll start with the thing I mostly agree with: the damage being done to our culture is a function of the language we use.  I don't think Trump or his ilk are the cause, though.  They're the symptom.  The cause is electronic communication.  "Innovation" like email, usenet, html, ..., facebook, twitter, 4chan, etc. has altered our language and, hence, altered our minds.  Say what you will about Trump (or Guy Fieri or whoever), they're modern creatures.

Now to the 3 parts I fundamentally disagree with:

0) Political Correctness isn't even close to fascist.  Political correctness (even run amok) is simply the attempt to empathize with one's audience.  Is it fascist to have good manners?  ... to care about the person you're talking to/about as if they were a person deserving of respect?  No, clearly that's not fascist at all.  I can sympathize with the idea that nobody's perfect and we all fail to respect everyone always.  But the overwhelming majority of us _try_ to be respectful most of the time.  And if we see someone (like Trump) failing _all_ the time, it's right to shame them for their lack of respect.  When you meet these hypersensitive people who seem like all they do is shame others for disrespect, it's useful to consider the electronic comm. dominance.  They see nothing but hate and nastiness online all the time and are making some attempt to combat it.  Cheers to those hypersensitive people.  I wish I could be more sensitive.

1) We are not limiting our thoughts to the 2 choices.  It seems to me that most people are upset with either choice and are voting according to whatever strategy they hold.  It's multi-objective optimization projected down onto a lower dimensional space.  The only way voting for a known-to-lose candidate supports an objective is as a protest vote or because you place ideology above practice. (... barring the 5% funding objective, which is a bit obscure)  Both of those perspectives are fine.  But few of us are really that ideological.  Most US citizens are moderates.  To read these votes as a purely disjoint bifurcation in all voter _thought_ is too strong.

2) I'm not hearing a herd mentality towards the presidential vote.  I'm hearing "Fine, I'll vote for that one, but will keep supporting my ideological champions so that we can still make progress over the next 4 years."  This is the case for my vote.  I voted for Stein in 2012 because I didn't really care who won.  Romney and Ryan are rational people.  They'd have done a fine job.  I had to vote for Obama in 2008 because: Palin.  But if McCain had picked a rational person, I would have voted Green or Libertarian.  The same is true this time around.  I think Pence is a fine candidate.  If Trump weren't on the ticket, I'd vote for Jill.  This reasoning is not as you caricature.  I'm not avoiding voting for Stein because nobody else is.  I voted for Clinton because a) nobody irrational is on her ticket and b) she's the most competent candidate.

On 11/08/2016 04:16 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

> Glen -
>
> I appreciate the nuance here.
>
> I have been dealing with crypto-fascists all of my life... we have discussed the libertarian vs the Libertarian,  I have endured the years where Lefty political correctness was approaching fascism and I have had to endure the Righty style fascism that seems to be hitting a crescendo under the rallying cry of that "man-child" running for president.
>
> I isolate myself enough in daily life so as NOT to have to spend too many cycles on this constant interpretation, for those who do not have that luxury, I understand that this can be deeply painful to the psyche if not the soul.
>
> I refer you to the musical observations of the philosophers known as "They Might be Giants":
>
>     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-nuHCTA5E
>
> Unfortunately, *I* believe that the language we use in our communication deeply informs the language we use to think... and that by adjusting our discourse with others can lead us to think (for better or worse) differently.  I believe that the damage being done to our culture today is as much the way our thinking is modified by this presidential race as it is the possible outcomes.   We are leading ourselves to believe that our only two choices are to become a xenophobic, retrograde, bigoted people or to continue with a status quo which is clearly not serving many, many people very well.
>
> While I don't completely agree with or support Jill and the Greens, I DO appreciate the alternative rhetoric they have offered.  Her *very* low polling indicates to me that either *many* of us really aren't willing to think outside of one of the two boxes offered to us, OR, there is something specifically wrong with their message that *I* am not getting?
>
> What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".

--
☣ glen

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[Owen Densmore]

Wow, 538 has huge turn around:

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[Owen Densmore]

Twitter is, oddly enough, one of the most interesting live election programs. Weird.

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 8:33 PM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

Wow, 538 has huge turn around:

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

<<What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".>>

I have been far more afraid of a major regression to our democracy than any compulsion to pursue the kind of progressive efforts I would try to advance.   I don't think my fear was misplaced.    I take some comfort that I was not alone in this.   Kind of like that feeling after 9/11 that minor disagreements were silly and irrelevant.    Will have to find a way to navigate all this.  Sigh.  

Marcus

---

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Steven A Smith <[hidden email]>
Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2016 5:16:56 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Glen -

I appreciate the nuance here.  

I have been dealing with crypto-fascists all of my life... we have discussed the libertarian vs the Libertarian,  I have endured the years where Lefty political correctness was approaching fascism and I have had to endure the Righty style fascism that seems to be hitting a crescendo under the rallying cry of that "man-child" running for president.

I isolate myself enough in daily life so as NOT to have to spend too many cycles on this constant interpretation, for those who do not have that luxury, I understand that this can be deeply painful to the psyche if not the soul.

I refer you to the musical observations of the philosophers known as "They Might be Giants":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-nuHCTA5E

Unfortunately, *I* believe that the language we use in our communication deeply informs the language we use to think... and that by adjusting our discourse with others can lead us to think (for better or worse) differently.  I believe that the damage being done to our culture today is as much the way our thinking is modified by this presidential race as it is the possible outcomes.   We are leading ourselves to believe that our only two choices are to become a xenophobic, retrograde, bigoted people or to continue with a status quo which is clearly not serving many, many people very well.  

While I don't completely agree with or support Jill and the Greens, I DO appreciate the alternative rhetoric they have offered.  Her *very* low polling indicates to me that either *many* of us really aren't willing to think outside of one of the two boxes offered to us, OR, there is something specifically wrong with their message that *I* am not getting?

What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".

- Steve

On 11/8/16 8:25 AM, ┣glen┫ wrote:

Right.  It's not quite right to suggest that switching codes is bimodal or bivalent.  I think it's more of a spectrum, at least in an informal sense.  If we were talking about a person trying to communicate a complex idea in a non-native language then switching to their native language, that would be more bimodal.  But I'm talking more about, eg, realizing in the middle of a conversation that you're talking to a crypto-fascist who puts up a good veneer at first, then reveals their fascism over the course of the conversation.  When I realize it, I switch, either to something that will completely alienate the person, or to language that makes me sound more like a fascist, depending on how I feel at the time.

Marcus' idea of a an interpreter vs. languages closer to the bare metal is, I think, akin to Nick's idea of imaginary vs. factual.  And the gist is solid.  There's a very high overhead interpreting through many layers of abstraction or entertaining imaginary worlds through the suspension of disbelief.  It's a luxury we can't always afford.  But both assume there exists a bare metal.  I'm a constructivist, for the most part, and believe all our languages are interpreted and there really is no such thing as a natural, close to the metal, machine code.  There are no linguistic or cognitive facts, only action facts.  And this may be closer to what you're trying to say, because that means that we are always interacting through an interpreter, albeit sometimes many layers out vs. only a few layers out.



On 11/07/2016 08:05 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

I guess I already feel I have to "code switch" all the time already...  I have to speak a pidgin of Left/Right/Green/Libertarian/Anarchist just to communicate with my friends and colleagues on these matters.  I understand and agree that in world D, the emergent patois will be much less familiar/comfortable than the one I have now and that in world H, it will be much more familiar, less abrupt of a change.  I guess I assumed that Agent G and agent M were more like me in this regard than maybe they are.

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[Steve Smith]

Marcus -

It would appear that your fears were more founded than I could have imagined.

It would also seem that I was standing in the wrong lane staring down the headlights (again).
    <schmeeeaarrrrrr!>

Small solace, but I am pretty sure Gary took more Trump votes in every case than Jill took Hillary ones, if that is not an oversimplification.  If there were any spoilers, it was probably in States where Gary split the vote on Trump, giving it to Hillary.

To me, there is a paradox in the apparent fact that Populism seems to always support or lead to Fascism.  And now "here we go!"

<<What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".>>

I have been far more afraid of a major regression to our democracy than any compulsion to pursue the kind of progressive efforts I would try to advance.   I don't think my fear was misplaced.    I take some comfort that I was not alone in this.   Kind of like that feeling after 9/11 that minor disagreements were silly and irrelevant.    Will have to find a way to navigate all this.  Sigh.  

Marcus

---

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Steven A Smith [hidden email]
Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2016 5:16:56 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Glen -

I appreciate the nuance here.  

I have been dealing with crypto-fascists all of my life... we have discussed the libertarian vs the Libertarian,  I have endured the years where Lefty political correctness was approaching fascism and I have had to endure the Righty style fascism that seems to be hitting a crescendo under the rallying cry of that "man-child" running for president.

I isolate myself enough in daily life so as NOT to have to spend too many cycles on this constant interpretation, for those who do not have that luxury, I understand that this can be deeply painful to the psyche if not the soul.

I refer you to the musical observations of the philosophers known as "They Might be Giants":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-nuHCTA5E

Unfortunately, *I* believe that the language we use in our communication deeply informs the language we use to think... and that by adjusting our discourse with others can lead us to think (for better or worse) differently.  I believe that the damage being done to our culture today is as much the way our thinking is modified by this presidential race as it is the possible outcomes.   We are leading ourselves to believe that our only two choices are to become a xenophobic, retrograde, bigoted people or to continue with a status quo which is clearly not serving many, many people very well.  

While I don't completely agree with or support Jill and the Greens, I DO appreciate the alternative rhetoric they have offered.  Her *very* low polling indicates to me that either *many* of us really aren't willing to think outside of one of the two boxes offered to us, OR, there is something specifically wrong with their message that *I* am not getting?

What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".

- Steve

On 11/8/16 8:25 AM, ┣glen┫ wrote:

Right.  It's not quite right to suggest that switching codes is bimodal or bivalent.  I think it's more of a spectrum, at least in an informal sense.  If we were talking about a person trying to communicate a complex idea in a non-native language then switching to their native language, that would be more bimodal.  But I'm talking more about, eg, realizing in the middle of a conversation that you're talking to a crypto-fascist who puts up a good veneer at first, then reveals their fascism over the course of the conversation.  When I realize it, I switch, either to something that will completely alienate the person, or to language that makes me sound more like a fascist, depending on how I feel at the time.

Marcus' idea of a an interpreter vs. languages closer to the bare metal is, I think, akin to Nick's idea of imaginary vs. factual.  And the gist is solid.  There's a very high overhead interpreting through many layers of abstraction or entertaining imaginary worlds through the suspension of disbelief.  It's a luxury we can't always afford.  But both assume there exists a bare metal.  I'm a constructivist, for the most part, and believe all our languages are interpreted and there really is no such thing as a natural, close to the metal, machine code.  There are no linguistic or cognitive facts, only action facts.  And this may be closer to what you're trying to say, because that means that we are always interacting through an interpreter, albeit sometimes many layers out vs. only a few layers out.



On 11/07/2016 08:05 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

I guess I already feel I have to "code switch" all the time already...  I have to speak a pidgin of Left/Right/Green/Libertarian/Anarchist just to communicate with my friends and colleagues on these matters.  I understand and agree that in world D, the emergent patois will be much less familiar/comfortable than the one I have now and that in world H, it will be much more familiar, less abrupt of a change.  I guess I assumed that Agent G and agent M were more like me in this regard than maybe they are.

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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

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[Roger Critchlow-2]

Welp, just sitting around shaking my head this morning, think I'll take out the trash.

-- rec --

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 6:38 AM, Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Marcus -

It would appear that your fears were more founded than I could have imagined.

It would also seem that I was standing in the wrong lane staring down the headlights (again).
    <schmeeeaarrrrrr!>

Small solace, but I am pretty sure Gary took more Trump votes in every case than Jill took Hillary ones, if that is not an oversimplification.  If there were any spoilers, it was probably in States where Gary split the vote on Trump, giving it to Hillary.

To me, there is a paradox in the apparent fact that Populism seems to always support or lead to Fascism.  And now "here we go!"

<<What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".>>

I have been far more afraid of a major regression to our democracy than any compulsion to pursue the kind of progressive efforts I would try to advance.   I don't think my fear was misplaced.    I take some comfort that I was not alone in this.   Kind of like that feeling after 9/11 that minor disagreements were silly and irrelevant.    Will have to find a way to navigate all this.  Sigh.  

Marcus

---

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Steven A Smith [hidden email]
Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2016 5:16:56 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Glen -

I appreciate the nuance here.  

I have been dealing with crypto-fascists all of my life... we have discussed the libertarian vs the Libertarian,  I have endured the years where Lefty political correctness was approaching fascism and I have had to endure the Righty style fascism that seems to be hitting a crescendo under the rallying cry of that "man-child" running for president.

I isolate myself enough in daily life so as NOT to have to spend too many cycles on this constant interpretation, for those who do not have that luxury, I understand that this can be deeply painful to the psyche if not the soul.

I refer you to the musical observations of the philosophers known as "They Might be Giants":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-nuHCTA5E

Unfortunately, *I* believe that the language we use in our communication deeply informs the language we use to think... and that by adjusting our discourse with others can lead us to think (for better or worse) differently.  I believe that the damage being done to our culture today is as much the way our thinking is modified by this presidential race as it is the possible outcomes.   We are leading ourselves to believe that our only two choices are to become a xenophobic, retrograde, bigoted people or to continue with a status quo which is clearly not serving many, many people very well.  

While I don't completely agree with or support Jill and the Greens, I DO appreciate the alternative rhetoric they have offered.  Her *very* low polling indicates to me that either *many* of us really aren't willing to think outside of one of the two boxes offered to us, OR, there is something specifically wrong with their message that *I* am not getting?

What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".

- Steve

On 11/8/16 8:25 AM, ┣glen┫ wrote:

Right.  It's not quite right to suggest that switching codes is bimodal or bivalent.  I think it's more of a spectrum, at least in an informal sense.  If we were talking about a person trying to communicate a complex idea in a non-native language then switching to their native language, that would be more bimodal.  But I'm talking more about, eg, realizing in the middle of a conversation that you're talking to a crypto-fascist who puts up a good veneer at first, then reveals their fascism over the course of the conversation.  When I realize it, I switch, either to something that will completely alienate the person, or to language that makes me sound more like a fascist, depending on how I feel at the time.

Marcus' idea of a an interpreter vs. languages closer to the bare metal is, I think, akin to Nick's idea of imaginary vs. factual.  And the gist is solid.  There's a very high overhead interpreting through many layers of abstraction or entertaining imaginary worlds through the suspension of disbelief.  It's a luxury we can't always afford.  But both assume there exists a bare metal.  I'm a constructivist, for the most part, and believe all our languages are interpreted and there really is no such thing as a natural, close to the metal, machine code.  There are no linguistic or cognitive facts, only action facts.  And this may be closer to what you're trying to say, because that means that we are always interacting through an interpreter, albeit sometimes many layers out vs. only a few layers out.



On 11/07/2016 08:05 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

I guess I already feel I have to "code switch" all the time already...  I have to speak a pidgin of Left/Right/Green/Libertarian/Anarchist just to communicate with my friends and colleagues on these matters.  I understand and agree that in world D, the emergent patois will be much less familiar/comfortable than the one I have now and that in world H, it will be much more familiar, less abrupt of a change.  I guess I assumed that Agent G and agent M were more like me in this regard than maybe they are.

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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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[cody dooderson]

If "take out the trash" is a code for "sail my house up to Canada", I want to "take out the trash" too, nudge nudge.
But seriously how did this happen? Would this have happened with ranked choice voting?

On Nov 9, 2016 6:57 AM, "Roger Critchlow" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Welp, just sitting around shaking my head this morning, think I'll take out the trash.

-- rec --

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 6:38 AM, Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Marcus -

It would appear that your fears were more founded than I could have imagined.

It would also seem that I was standing in the wrong lane staring down the headlights (again).
    <schmeeeaarrrrrr!>

Small solace, but I am pretty sure Gary took more Trump votes in every case than Jill took Hillary ones, if that is not an oversimplification.  If there were any spoilers, it was probably in States where Gary split the vote on Trump, giving it to Hillary.

To me, there is a paradox in the apparent fact that Populism seems to always support or lead to Fascism.  And now "here we go!"

<<What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".>>

I have been far more afraid of a major regression to our democracy than any compulsion to pursue the kind of progressive efforts I would try to advance.   I don't think my fear was misplaced.    I take some comfort that I was not alone in this.   Kind of like that feeling after 9/11 that minor disagreements were silly and irrelevant.    Will have to find a way to navigate all this.  Sigh.  

Marcus

---

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Steven A Smith [hidden email]
Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2016 5:16:56 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Glen -

I appreciate the nuance here.  

I have been dealing with crypto-fascists all of my life... we have discussed the libertarian vs the Libertarian,  I have endured the years where Lefty political correctness was approaching fascism and I have had to endure the Righty style fascism that seems to be hitting a crescendo under the rallying cry of that "man-child" running for president.

I isolate myself enough in daily life so as NOT to have to spend too many cycles on this constant interpretation, for those who do not have that luxury, I understand that this can be deeply painful to the psyche if not the soul.

I refer you to the musical observations of the philosophers known as "They Might be Giants":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-nuHCTA5E

Unfortunately, *I* believe that the language we use in our communication deeply informs the language we use to think... and that by adjusting our discourse with others can lead us to think (for better or worse) differently.  I believe that the damage being done to our culture today is as much the way our thinking is modified by this presidential race as it is the possible outcomes.   We are leading ourselves to believe that our only two choices are to become a xenophobic, retrograde, bigoted people or to continue with a status quo which is clearly not serving many, many people very well.  

While I don't completely agree with or support Jill and the Greens, I DO appreciate the alternative rhetoric they have offered.  Her *very* low polling indicates to me that either *many* of us really aren't willing to think outside of one of the two boxes offered to us, OR, there is something specifically wrong with their message that *I* am not getting?

What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".

- Steve

On 11/8/16 8:25 AM, ┣glen┫ wrote:

Right.  It's not quite right to suggest that switching codes is bimodal or bivalent.  I think it's more of a spectrum, at least in an informal sense.  If we were talking about a person trying to communicate a complex idea in a non-native language then switching to their native language, that would be more bimodal.  But I'm talking more about, eg, realizing in the middle of a conversation that you're talking to a crypto-fascist who puts up a good veneer at first, then reveals their fascism over the course of the conversation.  When I realize it, I switch, either to something that will completely alienate the person, or to language that makes me sound more like a fascist, depending on how I feel at the time.

Marcus' idea of a an interpreter vs. languages closer to the bare metal is, I think, akin to Nick's idea of imaginary vs. factual.  And the gist is solid.  There's a very high overhead interpreting through many layers of abstraction or entertaining imaginary worlds through the suspension of disbelief.  It's a luxury we can't always afford.  But both assume there exists a bare metal.  I'm a constructivist, for the most part, and believe all our languages are interpreted and there really is no such thing as a natural, close to the metal, machine code.  There are no linguistic or cognitive facts, only action facts.  And this may be closer to what you're trying to say, because that means that we are always interacting through an interpreter, albeit sometimes many layers out vs. only a few layers out.



On 11/07/2016 08:05 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

I guess I already feel I have to "code switch" all the time already...  I have to speak a pidgin of Left/Right/Green/Libertarian/Anarchist just to communicate with my friends and colleagues on these matters.  I understand and agree that in world D, the emergent patois will be much less familiar/comfortable than the one I have now and that in world H, it will be much more familiar, less abrupt of a change.  I guess I assumed that Agent G and agent M were more like me in this regard than maybe they are.

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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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[Owen Densmore]

You notice, of course, that the OP was right, right?

​What's spooky is, even tho the overall percentage is currently 
    Hillery 67.8% Trump 32.1%
(good as a sure thing, right?) but the details show margins that could easily lead to a Trump win.
There's even an article on the same site: "Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton"
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

​

​Listen to your elders, for they have wisdom.  :)

   -- Owen​

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[Gillian Densmore]

The better question is what's the beer like in Canada. :P

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 9:38 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

You notice, of course, that the OP was right, right?

​What's spooky is, even tho the overall percentage is currently 
    Hillery 67.8% Trump 32.1%
(good as a sure thing, right?) but the details show margins that could easily lead to a Trump win.
There's even an article on the same site: "Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton"
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

​

​Listen to your elders, for they have wisdom.  :)

   -- Owen​

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

The margins were tight in some cases, so Comey and voter suppression tactics in places like NC could have been factors.   But no excuses for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania it seems to me.    And it wasn’t Nader’s (etc) fault -- that kind of discontent needs to be taken seriously by the relevant party in a two party system.   There’s also no point in blaming progressives (democrat or not) that failed to see the risk here.    It was the DNC and the Clinton campaign’s job to make it appealing to voters that wanted a more empathic/emotional appeal.  If there are to be two big political parties they need to know their constituents and how to adapt to them and, frankly, how to lead them to a better place when their preferences aren’t going to work (like in the rust belt).   Rhetorically, at least, Obama and his campaign, more deftly than H. Clinton’s did.

 

Also, Obama was very careful to avoid the `angry black man’ optics, but I think racism has always been a part of the opposition to his administration’s legislative efforts.  It could have been much worse if he wasn’t so gifted with people.   One of the things that really has shaken me about what happened is how Hillary brought out the misogyny of so many men.   One could argue that she could have, somehow, optimally navigated that like Obama did, but that doesn’t take away from the plain horror of it all.   The larger threat of fascism can be resisted, I hope, but I don’t know how to respond to this other than to hang my head in shame and take shower after shower.   It is disgusting.   

 

Marcus

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of cody dooderson
Sent: Wednesday, November 09, 2016 9:25 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

If "take out the trash" is a code for "sail my house up to Canada", I want to "take out the trash" too, nudge nudge.
But seriously how did this happen? Would this have happened with ranked choice voting?

 

On Nov 9, 2016 6:57 AM, "Roger Critchlow" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Welp, just sitting around shaking my head this morning, think I'll take out the trash.

 

-- rec --

 

 

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 6:38 AM, Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Marcus -

It would appear that your fears were more founded than I could have imagined.

It would also seem that I was standing in the wrong lane staring down the headlights (again).
    <schmeeeaarrrrrr!>

Small solace, but I am pretty sure Gary took more Trump votes in every case than Jill took Hillary ones, if that is not an oversimplification.  If there were any spoilers, it was probably in States where Gary split the vote on Trump, giving it to Hillary.

To me, there is a paradox in the apparent fact that Populism seems to always support or lead to Fascism.  And now "here we go!"

<<What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".>>

I have been far more afraid of a major regression to our democracy than any compulsion to pursue the kind of progressive efforts I would try to advance.   I don't think my fear was misplaced.    I take some comfort that I was not alone in this.   Kind of like that feeling after 9/11 that minor disagreements were silly and irrelevant.    Will have to find a way to navigate all this.  Sigh.  

Marcus

---

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Steven A Smith [hidden email]
Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2016 5:16:56 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Glen -

I appreciate the nuance here.  

I have been dealing with crypto-fascists all of my life... we have discussed the libertarian vs the Libertarian,  I have endured the years where Lefty political correctness was approaching fascism and I have had to endure the Righty style fascism that seems to be hitting a crescendo under the rallying cry of that "man-child" running for president.

I isolate myself enough in daily life so as NOT to have to spend too many cycles on this constant interpretation, for those who do not have that luxury, I understand that this can be deeply painful to the psyche if not the soul.

I refer you to the musical observations of the philosophers known as "They Might be Giants":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-nuHCTA5E

Unfortunately, *I* believe that the language we use in our communication deeply informs the language we use to think... and that by adjusting our discourse with others can lead us to think (for better or worse) differently.  I believe that the damage being done to our culture today is as much the way our thinking is modified by this presidential race as it is the possible outcomes.   We are leading ourselves to believe that our only two choices are to become a xenophobic, retrograde, bigoted people or to continue with a status quo which is clearly not serving many, many people very well.  

While I don't completely agree with or support Jill and the Greens, I DO appreciate the alternative rhetoric they have offered.  Her *very* low polling indicates to me that either *many* of us really aren't willing to think outside of one of the two boxes offered to us, OR, there is something specifically wrong with their message that *I* am not getting?

What I hear pretty exclusively is "I won't vote for them because nobody else is voting for them" or maybe even more pointedly "I won't listen to them because nobody else is listening to them".

- Steve

 

 

On 11/8/16 8:25 AM, ┣glen┫ wrote:

Right.  It's not quite right to suggest that switching codes is bimodal or bivalent.  I think it's more of a spectrum, at least in an informal sense.  If we were talking about a person trying to communicate a complex idea in a non-native language then switching to their native language, that would be more bimodal.  But I'm talking more about, eg, realizing in the middle of a conversation that you're talking to a crypto-fascist who puts up a good veneer at first, then reveals their fascism over the course of the conversation.  When I realize it, I switch, either to something that will completely alienate the person, or to language that makes me sound more like a fascist, depending on how I feel at the time.

Marcus' idea of a an interpreter vs. languages closer to the bare metal is, I think, akin to Nick's idea of imaginary vs. factual.  And the gist is solid.  There's a very high overhead interpreting through many layers of abstraction or entertaining imaginary worlds through the suspension of disbelief.  It's a luxury we can't always afford.  But both assume there exists a bare metal.  I'm a constructivist, for the most part, and believe all our languages are interpreted and there really is no such thing as a natural, close to the metal, machine code.  There are no linguistic or cognitive facts, only action facts.  And this may be closer to what you're trying to say, because that means that we are always interacting through an interpreter, albeit sometimes many layers out vs. only a few layers out.

On 11/07/2016 08:05 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

I guess I already feel I have to "code switch" all the time already...  I have to speak a pidgin of Left/Right/Green/Libertarian/Anarchist just to communicate with my friends and colleagues on these matters.  I understand and agree that in world D, the emergent patois will be much less familiar/comfortable than the one I have now and that in world H, it will be much more familiar, less abrupt of a change.  I guess I assumed that Agent G and agent M were more like me in this regard than maybe they are.

 

 

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[Owen Densmore]

OTOH: California, Massachusetts and Nevada legalized marijuana.

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[Roger Critchlow-2]

The funny part of this -- there are actually many funny parts, but I'll save some for later -- the immediately funny part is that I've been literally living in a bubble for a week now.  I attach a degraded cell phone image as demonstration.

And, no, we are not sailing off in the near future.  It would waste the money we spent on the nifty bubble, and it's sort of hard to get out of the marina at this point.

Anyway, I have high expectations for The Political Apprentice.

-- rec --

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 12:34 PM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

OTOH: California, Massachusetts and Nevada legalized marijuana.

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[Roger Critchlow-2]

Maine apparently legalized cannabis, too, though too close to call through the night.

-- rec --

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 12:34 PM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

OTOH: California, Massachusetts and Nevada legalized marijuana.

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[Owen Densmore]

I *love* the bubble!

Joy is Hope's best friend.

BTW: I realize I've posted this in the past, and my version of it uses s/fuck/damn/. But I've only got a limited number of Damn's to give, and the fewer, the stronger.

    https://markmanson.net/not-giving-a-fuck

So I just don't give a Damn about the president, no matter who. I have too few to give. My first Damn is for Love & Compassion, kinda weak I realize but then I think I can stop war by being peaceful myself. It all starts at home.

So how are your Damn's coming along?

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 11:05 AM, Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

The funny part of this -- there are actually many funny parts, but I'll save some for later -- the immediately funny part is that I've been literally living in a bubble for a week now.  I attach a degraded cell phone image as demonstration.

And, no, we are not sailing off in the near future.  It would waste the money we spent on the nifty bubble, and it's sort of hard to get out of the marina at this point.

Anyway, I have high expectations for The Political Apprentice.

-- rec --

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 12:34 PM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

OTOH: California, Massachusetts and Nevada legalized marijuana.

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

“So I just don't give a Damn about the president, no matter who.“

 

You might as well round-up to all U.S. law for most of your kids’ lives as there will be enough turnover in the president’s Supreme court nominations to dramatically skew things to the right.

 

“My first Damn is for Love & Compassion, kinda weak I realize but then I think I can stop war by being peaceful myself. It all starts at home.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/apr/20/war-what-is-it-good-for-ian-morris

 

Marcus

 

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[Sarbajit Roy (testing)]

http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

It seems that depressed economies imply we are going to have a rash of fascism everywhere. Here's to World War III. Cheers.

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 3:55 PM, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:

Well put. This is not a game. 

On Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

"The fact that world H and world D are such closely adjacent possibles is what I am savoring (in the sense of morbid fascination) for roughly the next 24-36 hours. "

To first order, this isn't about the ideological aspirations of one candidate vs. the other (or the completely irrelevant others).  It's about choosing between a person who can and has managed in relevant circumstances, and a man-child that obviously needs to be managed and who obviously draws-from and amplifies the worst in people, has many indicators of an authoritarian personality, and is a likely target for blackmail and manipulation by foreign powers.   The potential upside of this non-contest  is that a thinker and policy wonk may sneak through as the winner by default.  Even stranger is that it would be historic -- and somehow that is almost a footnote.    The whole thing is surreal and even scarier than Brexit.

Marcus

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