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Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Lesser of two evils?

Posted on Facebook by Ricky Martin

Trump admitting sexual assault. Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud. Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation. Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk. Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba. Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud. Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA. Clinton emails. Trump doesn't pay taxes for 20 years. Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia. Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US. Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate. Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia's Crimea occupation. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria. Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination. Clinton emails. Trump files for bankruptcy 6 times. Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics. Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs. Clinton emails. Trump calls Mexicans rapists. Clinton emails. Trump questions judge's integrity because of parent's heritage. Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal. Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after Florida hurricane. Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse. Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms America for being overweight. Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am. Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo. Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used. Clinton emails. Trump asks why cant we use our nukes if we have them. Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger. Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists. Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions. Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people. Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press. Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a Chinese hoax. Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un's strong leadership. Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate. Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate non-citizen hundreds of times over 7 years. Clinton emails. Trump uses campaign donations to enrich his own businesses. Clinton emails. Trump says laziness is an inherent trait in black people. Clinton emails.

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 4, 2016 5:31 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Oh. Ok; I thought you meant Liberals and I could not make that work. Thanks for the clarification.

n

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 2:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Nick --

Just joking that Libertarians (ie libbies) should refuse to take campaign funding from the government and refuse to participate in government run elections, or they're clearly acting as LINO's (Libertarians In Name Only). Sorry, it was an old joke the first time.

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 4:12 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hi Roger,

Perhaps my humor and imagination have been totally destroyed by this election (which somebody aptly described as a political dumpster fire), but … I didn’t understand your comment, AND I want to.

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 1:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Aren't the libbies constitutionally required to disdain funding from the government? Seems like they should disdain elections, too, hold out for victory by acclamation?

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:28 PM, ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]> wrote:
On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Very nice presentation. Thanks, Marcus!

On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their mouths are were saying:
>
> https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

That's only 1 market. Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this list?) aggregates some markets:
http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ChartPres.png

But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of course, in various amounts. So, it's not clear whether these markets are predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be.

> Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"? There sure is a lot of volatility!

My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the late-comers digging into the subject. Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed their opinion. More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't affect that. But those who only started really paying attention last month may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's and Trump's foibles and qualities. The falsifying question would be: What % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started digging?

I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also forget where I learned about that one. [sigh]

> Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and automatic ballot inclusion next round.

It would be great to see the Green party get the funding. I wouldn't celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though.

--
␦glen?

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Should be a plus!

http://textsfromhillaryclinton.tumblr.com/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Saturday, November 05, 2016 10:06 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Lesser of two evils?

Posted on Facebook by Ricky Martin

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 4, 2016 5:31 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Oh. Ok; I thought you meant Liberals and I could not make that work. Thanks for the clarification.

n

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 2:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Nick --

Just joking that Libertarians (ie libbies) should refuse to take campaign funding from the government and refuse to participate in government run elections, or they're clearly acting as LINO's (Libertarians In Name Only). Sorry, it was an old joke the first time.

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 4:12 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hi Roger,

Perhaps my humor and imagination have been totally destroyed by this election (which somebody aptly described as a political dumpster fire), but … I didn’t understand your comment, AND I want to.

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 1:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Aren't the libbies constitutionally required to disdain funding from the government? Seems like they should disdain elections, too, hold out for victory by acclamation?

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:28 PM, ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]> wrote:

On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Very nice presentation. Thanks, Marcus!

On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their mouths are were saying:
>
> https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

That's only 1 market. Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this list?) aggregates some markets:
http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ChartPres.png

But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of course, in various amounts. So, it's not clear whether these markets are predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be.

> Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"? There sure is a lot of volatility!

My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the late-comers digging into the subject. Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed their opinion. More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't affect that. But those who only started really paying attention last month may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's and Trump's foibles and qualities. The falsifying question would be: What % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started digging?

I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also forget where I learned about that one. [sigh]

> Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and automatic ballot inclusion next round.

It would be great to see the Green party get the funding. I wouldn't celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though.

--
␦glen?

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Nick Thompson

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

That is really good, Frank.

Thanks,

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

Lesser of two evils?

Posted on Facebook by Ricky Martin

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 4, 2016 5:31 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Oh. Ok; I thought you meant Liberals and I could not make that work. Thanks for the clarification.

n

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 2:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Nick --

Just joking that Libertarians (ie libbies) should refuse to take campaign funding from the government and refuse to participate in government run elections, or they're clearly acting as LINO's (Libertarians In Name Only). Sorry, it was an old joke the first time.

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 4:12 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hi Roger,

Perhaps my humor and imagination have been totally destroyed by this election (which somebody aptly described as a political dumpster fire), but … I didn’t understand your comment, AND I want to.

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 1:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Aren't the libbies constitutionally required to disdain funding from the government? Seems like they should disdain elections, too, hold out for victory by acclamation?

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:28 PM, ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]> wrote:
On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Very nice presentation. Thanks, Marcus!

On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their mouths are were saying:
>
> https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

That's only 1 market. Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this list?) aggregates some markets:
http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ChartPres.png

But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of course, in various amounts. So, it's not clear whether these markets are predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be.

> Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"? There sure is a lot of volatility!

My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the late-comers digging into the subject. Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed their opinion. More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't affect that. But those who only started really paying attention last month may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's and Trump's foibles and qualities. The falsifying question would be: What % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started digging?

I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also forget where I learned about that one. [sigh]

> Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and automatic ballot inclusion next round.

It would be great to see the Green party get the funding. I wouldn't celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though.

--
␦glen?

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Owen Densmore

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Administrator

Interesting 538 info-graphic, which also makes the 65%-35% "chance to win" much less secure:

-- Owen

The winding path to 270 electoral votes

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 10:55 AM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

That is really good, Frank.

Thanks,

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Saturday, November 05, 2016 10:06 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Lesser of two evils?
Posted on Facebook by Ricky Martin
Trump admitting sexual assault. Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud. Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation. Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk. Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba. Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud. Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA. Clinton emails. Trump doesn't pay taxes for 20 years. Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia. Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US. Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate. Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia's Crimea occupation. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria. Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination. Clinton emails. Trump files for bankruptcy 6 times. Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics. Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs. Clinton emails. Trump calls Mexicans rapists. Clinton emails. Trump questions judge's integrity because of parent's heritage. Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal. Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after Florida hurricane. Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse. Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms America for being overweight. Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am. Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo. Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used. Clinton emails. Trump asks why cant we use our nukes if we have them. Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger. Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists. Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions. Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people. Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press. Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a Chinese hoax. Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un's strong leadership. Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate. Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate non-citizen hundreds of times over 7 years. Clinton emails. Trump uses campaign donations to enrich his own businesses. Clinton emails. Trump says laziness is an inherent trait in black people. Clinton emails.
Frank Wimberly
Phone <a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918" value="+15056709918" target="_blank">(505) 670-9918

On Nov 4, 2016 5:31 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[hidden email]> wrote:
Oh. Ok; I thought you meant Liberals and I could not make that work. Thanks for the clarification.

n

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 2:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Nick --

Just joking that Libertarians (ie libbies) should refuse to take campaign funding from the government and refuse to participate in government run elections, or they're clearly acting as LINO's (Libertarians In Name Only). Sorry, it was an old joke the first time.

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 4:12 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hi Roger,

Perhaps my humor and imagination have been totally destroyed by this election (which somebody aptly described as a political dumpster fire), but … I didn’t understand your comment, AND I want to.

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 1:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Aren't the libbies constitutionally required to disdain funding from the government? Seems like they should disdain elections, too, hold out for victory by acclamation?

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:28 PM, ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]> wrote:
On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Very nice presentation. Thanks, Marcus!

On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their mouths are were saying:
>
> https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

That's only 1 market. Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this list?) aggregates some markets:
http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ChartPres.png

But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of course, in various amounts. So, it's not clear whether these markets are predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be.

> Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"? There sure is a lot of volatility!

My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the late-comers digging into the subject. Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed their opinion. More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't affect that. But those who only started really paying attention last month may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's and Trump's foibles and qualities. The falsifying question would be: What % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started digging?

I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also forget where I learned about that one. [sigh]

> Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and automatic ballot inclusion next round.

It would be great to see the Green party get the funding. I wouldn't celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though.

--
␦glen?

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Owen Densmore

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Administrator

In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:51 PM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

I found the article from the Dalai Lama in the NYT today fairly plausible explanation of why we have the current problem. But, I would say, no, there will be no brotherhood with the Bundy's. The redistributionist approach (that Brooks -- libertarian -- objects to elsewhere) arises in order to give the possibility of free enterprise, not to preserve it for those that haven't realized they've simply failed to be sufficiently enterprising.

I just took a look at the article, and it certainly is interesting and puts into perspective why wealthy countries have a "The Sky Is Falling" syndrome.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/opinion/dalai-lama-behind-our-anxiety-the-fear-of-being-unneeded.html

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

Somewhat more optimistic, from my point of view:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 5, 2016 11:42 AM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting 538 info-graphic, which also makes the 65%-35% "chance to win" much less secure:

-- Owen

The winding path to 270 electoral votes

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 10:55 AM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
That is really good, Frank.

Thanks,

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Saturday, November 05, 2016 10:06 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Lesser of two evils?
Posted on Facebook by Ricky Martin
Trump admitting sexual assault. Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud. Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation. Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk. Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba. Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud. Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA. Clinton emails. Trump doesn't pay taxes for 20 years. Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia. Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US. Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate. Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia's Crimea occupation. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria. Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination. Clinton emails. Trump files for bankruptcy 6 times. Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics. Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs. Clinton emails. Trump calls Mexicans rapists. Clinton emails. Trump questions judge's integrity because of parent's heritage. Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal. Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after Florida hurricane. Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse. Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms America for being overweight. Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am. Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo. Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used. Clinton emails. Trump asks why cant we use our nukes if we have them. Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger. Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists. Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions. Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people. Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press. Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a Chinese hoax. Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un's strong leadership. Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate. Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate non-citizen hundreds of times over 7 years. Clinton emails. Trump uses campaign donations to enrich his own businesses. Clinton emails. Trump says laziness is an inherent trait in black people. Clinton emails.
Frank Wimberly
Phone <a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918" value="+15056709918" target="_blank">(505) 670-9918

On Nov 4, 2016 5:31 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[hidden email]> wrote:
Oh. Ok; I thought you meant Liberals and I could not make that work. Thanks for the clarification.

n

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 2:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Nick --

Just joking that Libertarians (ie libbies) should refuse to take campaign funding from the government and refuse to participate in government run elections, or they're clearly acting as LINO's (Libertarians In Name Only). Sorry, it was an old joke the first time.

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 4:12 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hi Roger,

Perhaps my humor and imagination have been totally destroyed by this election (which somebody aptly described as a political dumpster fire), but … I didn’t understand your comment, AND I want to.

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 1:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Aren't the libbies constitutionally required to disdain funding from the government? Seems like they should disdain elections, too, hold out for victory by acclamation?

-- rec --

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:28 PM, ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]> wrote:
On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Very nice presentation. Thanks, Marcus!

On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their mouths are were saying:
>
> https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

That's only 1 market. Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this list?) aggregates some markets:
http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ChartPres.png

But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of course, in various amounts. So, it's not clear whether these markets are predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be.

> Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"? There sure is a lot of volatility!

My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the late-comers digging into the subject. Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed their opinion. More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't affect that. But those who only started really paying attention last month may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's and Trump's foibles and qualities. The falsifying question would be: What % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started digging?

I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also forget where I learned about that one. [sigh]

> Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and automatic ballot inclusion next round.

It would be great to see the Green party get the funding. I wouldn't celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though.

--
␦glen?

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Owen Densmore

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Administrator

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

A quote from the article is pretty telling:

In America today, compared with 50 years ago, three times as many working-age men are completely outside the work force. This pattern is occurring throughout the developed world — and the consequences are not merely economic. Feeling superfluous is a blow to the human spirit. It leads to social isolation and emotional pain, and creates the conditions for negative emotions to take root.

If I were one of them, I'd surely vote Trump.

We do need to get over "who's going to win?" and ask "why has Trump got such a *huge* following?"

-- Owen

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 11:58 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:51 PM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
I found the article from the Dalai Lama in the NYT today fairly plausible explanation of why we have the current problem. But, I would say, no, there will be no brotherhood with the Bundy's. The redistributionist approach (that Brooks -- libertarian -- objects to elsewhere) arises in order to give the possibility of free enterprise, not to preserve it for those that haven't realized they've simply failed to be sufficiently enterprising.

I just took a look at the article, and it certainly is interesting and puts into perspective why wealthy countries have a "The Sky Is Falling" syndrome.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/opinion/dalai-lama-behind-our-anxiety-the-fear-of-being-unneeded.html

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

My opinion: scorn is a very powerful position; you can be scornful of God. People who feel powerless and left out find Trump appealing because they identify with the power implied by his scorn of the elite, the establishment, etc. Remember Spiro Agnew calling the educated "pointy headed intellectuals"?

In the meantime I'm very concerned with who's going to win the election.

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 5, 2016 12:59 PM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

A quote from the article is pretty telling:

In America today, compared with 50 years ago, three times as many working-age men are completely outside the work force. This pattern is occurring throughout the developed world — and the consequences are not merely economic. Feeling superfluous is a blow to the human spirit. It leads to social isolation and emotional pain, and creates the conditions for negative emotions to take root.

If I were one of them, I'd surely vote Trump.

We do need to get over "who's going to win?" and ask "why has Trump got such a *huge* following?"

-- Owen

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 11:58 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:
On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:51 PM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
I found the article from the Dalai Lama in the NYT today fairly plausible explanation of why we have the current problem. But, I would say, no, there will be no brotherhood with the Bundy's. The redistributionist approach (that Brooks -- libertarian -- objects to elsewhere) arises in order to give the possibility of free enterprise, not to preserve it for those that haven't realized they've simply failed to be sufficiently enterprising.

I just took a look at the article, and it certainly is interesting and puts into perspective why wealthy countries have a "The Sky Is Falling" syndrome.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/opinion/dalai-lama-behind-our-anxiety-the-fear-of-being-unneeded.html

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Owen Densmore

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Administrator

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 1:12 PM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

In the meantime I'm very concerned with who's going to win the election.

Yup, me too. That's why I REALLY don't like the "65% Hillary, 35% Trump"

chance to win stat. It SO magnifies a tiny percentage of the population.

he popular vote prediction paints a very different picture:

Hillary Clinton
48.5%
Donald Trump
45.5%

.. a 3% difference! .. definitely NOT the 30% difference in chance to win.

-- Owen

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

As I recall, Obama had a smaller lead than that in the popular vote.

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 5, 2016 1:29 PM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 1:12 PM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:
In the meantime I'm very concerned with who's going to win the election.
Yup, me too. That's why I REALLY don't like the "65% Hillary, 35% Trump"

chance to win stat. It SO magnifies a tiny percentage of the population.

T
he popular vote prediction paints a very different picture:

Hillary Clinton
48.5%
Donald Trump
45.5%
.. a 3% difference! .. definitely NOT the 30% difference in chance to win.

-- Owen

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Steve Smith

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

Frank, et alia -

My opinion: scorn is a very powerful position; you can be scornful of God. People who feel powerless and left out find Trump appealing because they identify with the power implied by his scorn of the elite, the establishment, etc. Remember Spiro Agnew calling the educated "pointy headed intellectuals"?

In the meantime I'm very concerned with who's going to win the election.

I liked Michael Moore's observation:

"Across the Midwest, across the Rustbelt, I understand why a lot of people are angry. And they see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on Nov 8. and throw him into our political system,"
...

"I think they love the idea of blowing up the system"

...

“It will feel good—for a day. You know, maybe a week. Possibly a month.”

“Because you used the ballot as an anger management tool and now you’re f**ked.”

He suggested that the pro-Brexit crowd in the UK had done the same thing... (re: anger management)

While I might be mildly concerned that Trump could win the election (I believe it would require voter apathy by at least 60% of us), I'm more concerned that *when* Hillary wins, she will take it as a mandate for her personal/dynastic agenda and her "team" will begin to ignore her "new friends" who she needed desperately to win over the human Molotov Cocktail.

The likes of Bernie, Jill, Amy, and Michael Moore will hopefully continue to hold her left foot to the fire while stomping on her gnarly right hawk-foot. Meanwhile, the likes of the Dalai Lama and Thich Nat Hahn will continue to provide some spiritual centering and grace to the whole scene. I'm guardedly hopeful in the shadow of the "worst of times" scenarios flying at me from both sides.

- Steve

Gillian Densmore

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

With such a close race between those two that raises questions like

-What if theirs a real tie?

-What (if any) difference will people writing in Ventura or Cthulu or Sanders make

-What (if any) difference would Stien Johnson and other indipendents make?

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 1:31 PM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

As I recall, Obama had a smaller lead than that in the popular vote.

Frank Wimberly
Phone <a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918" value="+15056709918" target="_blank">(505) 670-9918

On Nov 5, 2016 1:29 PM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:
On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 1:12 PM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:
In the meantime I'm very concerned with who's going to win the election.
Yup, me too. That's why I REALLY don't like the "65% Hillary, 35% Trump"

chance to win stat. It SO magnifies a tiny percentage of the population.

T
he popular vote prediction paints a very different picture:

Hillary Clinton
48.5%
Donald Trump
45.5%
.. a 3% difference! .. definitely NOT the 30% difference in chance to win.

-- Owen

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

Owen writes:

"We do need to get over "who's going to win?" and ask "why has Trump got such a *huge* following?"

One could as well ask: "Why do ISIS or Al-Qaeda have such a big following?"

The explanation is not a justification. In the case of those two, part of the solution involves empathy, education, and disentangling young people from the broken people around them. Other parts involves the use of intelligence, and economic, military force to reduce their scope of their influence.

Marcus

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Owen Densmore <[hidden email]>
Sent: Saturday, November 5, 2016 12:59:39 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

A quote from the article is pretty telling:

In America today, compared with 50 years ago, three times as many working-age men are completely outside the work force. This pattern is occurring throughout the developed world — and the consequences are not merely economic. Feeling superfluous is a blow to the human spirit. It leads to social isolation and emotional pain, and creates the conditions for negative emotions to take root.

If I were one of them, I'd surely vote Trump.

We do need to get over "who's going to win?" and ask "why has Trump got such a *huge* following?"

-- Owen

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 11:58 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:51 PM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

I found the article from the Dalai Lama in the NYT today fairly plausible explanation of why we have the current problem. But, I would say, no, there will be no brotherhood with the Bundy's. The redistributionist approach (that Brooks -- libertarian -- objects to elsewhere) arises in order to give the possibility of free enterprise, not to preserve it for those that haven't realized they've simply failed to be sufficiently enterprising.

I just took a look at the article, and it certainly is interesting and puts into perspective why wealthy countries have a "The Sky Is Falling" syndrome.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/opinion/dalai-lama-behind-our-anxiety-the-fear-of-being-unneeded.html

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

With regard to the scorn of elites: All I can say is that, in my many screw-ups in life, especially when I was younger, I spent a lot of time beating myself up for losing or saying the wrong thing or not effectively navigating the obstacles I experienced, or whatever. There have always been "elites" in some role that frustrated me (and I have been around plenty of people that deserve to be called elites), but by in large my response to the experience was self loathing.

It seems to me one has to come to recognize that there are many opportunities available and not all of them will be well suited to ones' natural abilities. Being a grown-up (in the modern world) is accepting that a lot of people are better than you at a lot of things. A less effective response is to retreat into a community that delays the need to confront this and the need to adapt to one's limitations. Trump's narcissism is exactly what this country doesn't need right now. When something isn't working, _stop_ doing it, don't just bitch and moan that the elites screwed you.

Marcus

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]>
Sent: Saturday, November 5, 2016 1:12:32 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

In the meantime I'm very concerned with who's going to win the election.

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 5, 2016 12:59 PM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

A quote from the article is pretty telling:

In America today, compared with 50 years ago, three times as many working-age men are completely outside the work force. This pattern is occurring throughout the developed world — and the consequences are not merely economic. Feeling superfluous is a blow to the human spirit. It leads to social isolation and emotional pain, and creates the conditions for negative emotions to take root.

If I were one of them, I'd surely vote Trump.

We do need to get over "who's going to win?" and ask "why has Trump got such a *huge* following?"

-- Owen

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 11:58 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:51 PM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

I found the article from the Dalai Lama in the NYT today fairly plausible explanation of why we have the current problem. But, I would say, no, there will be no brotherhood with the Bundy's. The redistributionist approach (that Brooks -- libertarian -- objects to elsewhere) arises in order to give the possibility of free enterprise, not to preserve it for those that haven't realized they've simply failed to be sufficiently enterprising.

I just took a look at the article, and it certainly is interesting and puts into perspective why wealthy countries have a "The Sky Is Falling" syndrome.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/opinion/dalai-lama-behind-our-anxiety-the-fear-of-being-unneeded.html

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Nate's reaction to this:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794994593574113282

Must have hit a nerve.

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 5, 2016 3:33 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <[hidden email]> wrote:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

The trend line adjustment could be right, but wouldn’t it be better to have theory of why and how different polling organizations were biased such that the adjustment could be predicted rather than inferred? I think (and certainly hope) the get-out-the-vote biases will be the big surprising effect, based on what seems to be happening in NC.

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Saturday, November 05, 2016 3:37 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Nate's reaction to this:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794994593574113282

Must have hit a nerve.

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 5, 2016 3:33 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <[hidden email]> wrote:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

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Owen Densmore

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Administrator

Comey recants!

New Comey letter: FBI has not changed its conclusion regarding Clinton use of personal email server
https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/795360000004726784

I wonder if Comey has biased the race significantly? Nice to have this late announcement, but with Early Voting so popular, I suspect he has had a pretty large impact.

Prof David West

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

If Trump were to win this election, the number one reason is the insistence of democrats and liberals to demonize and marginalize the populace supporting Trump.

If the only people that support him are "angry" racist" "xenophobic" "out-of-work-white-men" "could-not-graduate-from-college-because-of-low-IQ" etc. etc. he could not possibly command more than 10% of the vote.

Trump is a terrible person — but NOT atypical of the population in general. Projecting his worst qualities onto the masses that support him is a huge, hopefully fatal, strategic mistake on the part of the Clinton campaign. But it would be simply a continuation of a fifty year trend: a small elite that firmly believe they are the only ones capable of and deserving of running the government and that anyone that opposes them is ignorant and dangerous.

davew

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016, at 12:12 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My opinion: scorn is a very powerful position; you can be scornful of God. People who feel powerless and left out find Trump appealing because they identify with the power implied by his scorn of the elite, the establishment, etc. Remember Spiro Agnew calling the educated "pointy headed intellectuals"?
In the meantime I'm very concerned with who's going to win the election.
Frank

Frank Wimberly

Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 5, 2016 12:59 PM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

A quote from the article is pretty telling:

In America today, compared with 50 years ago, three times as many working-age men are completely outside the work force. This pattern is occurring throughout the developed world — and the consequences are not merely economic. Feeling superfluous is a blow to the human spirit. It leads to social isolation and emotional pain, and creates the conditions for negative emotions to take root.

If I were one of them, I'd surely vote Trump.

We do need to get over "who's going to win?" and ask "why has Trump got such a *huge* following?"

-- Owen

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 11:58 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:51 PM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

I found the article from the Dalai Lama in the NYT today fairly plausible explanation of why we have the current problem. But, I would say, no, there will be no brotherhood with the Bundy's. The redistributionist approach (that Brooks -- libertarian -- objects to elsewhere) arises in order to give the possibility of free enterprise, not to preserve it for those that haven't realized they've simply failed to be sufficiently enterprising.

I just took a look at the article, and it certainly is interesting and puts into perspective why wealthy countries have a "The Sky Is Falling" syndrome.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/opinion/dalai-lama-behind-our-anxiety-the-fear-of-being-unneeded.html

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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

This is updated every 10 minutes so it reflects some reaction to today's new FBI letter to Congress:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Nov 6, 2016 6:15 PM, "Prof David West" <[hidden email]> wrote:

If Trump were to win this election, the number one reason is the insistence of democrats and liberals to demonize and marginalize the populace supporting Trump.

If the only people that support him are "angry" racist" "xenophobic" "out-of-work-white-men" "could-not-graduate-from-college-because-of-low-IQ" etc. etc. he could not possibly command more than 10% of the vote.

Trump is a terrible person — but NOT atypical of the population in general. Projecting his worst qualities onto the masses that support him is a huge, hopefully fatal, strategic mistake on the part of the Clinton campaign. But it would be simply a continuation of a fifty year trend: a small elite that firmly believe they are the only ones capable of and deserving of running the government and that anyone that opposes them is ignorant and dangerous.

davew

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016, at 12:12 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My opinion: scorn is a very powerful position; you can be scornful of God. People who feel powerless and left out find Trump appealing because they identify with the power implied by his scorn of the elite, the establishment, etc. Remember Spiro Agnew calling the educated "pointy headed intellectuals"?
In the meantime I'm very concerned with who's going to win the election.
Frank

Frank Wimberly

Phone <a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918" value="+15056709918" target="_blank">(505) 670-9918

On Nov 5, 2016 12:59 PM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

A quote from the article is pretty telling:

In America today, compared with 50 years ago, three times as many working-age men are completely outside the work force. This pattern is occurring throughout the developed world — and the consequences are not merely economic. Feeling superfluous is a blow to the human spirit. It leads to social isolation and emotional pain, and creates the conditions for negative emotions to take root.

If I were one of them, I'd surely vote Trump.

We do need to get over "who's going to win?" and ask "why has Trump got such a *huge* following?"

-- Owen

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 11:58 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:51 PM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

I found the article from the Dalai Lama in the NYT today fairly plausible explanation of why we have the current problem. But, I would say, no, there will be no brotherhood with the Bundy's. The redistributionist approach (that Brooks -- libertarian -- objects to elsewhere) arises in order to give the possibility of free enterprise, not to preserve it for those that haven't realized they've simply failed to be sufficiently enterprising.

I just took a look at the article, and it certainly is interesting and puts into perspective why wealthy countries have a "The Sky Is Falling" syndrome.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/opinion/dalai-lama-behind-our-anxiety-the-fear-of-being-unneeded.html

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