Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Marcus G. Daniels

A legal insurance program sounds like candidate for crowdfunding, e.g. chuffed.org.  


https://www.inverse.com/article/23594-petitions-faithless-electors-legal-fees

www.inverse.com
If they switch their votes to stop Donald Trump, they could face fines and legal fees.



From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Sarbajit Roy <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2016 7:40:17 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight
 
It seems that depressed economies imply we are going to have a rash of fascism everywhere. Here's to World War III. Cheers.

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 3:55 PM, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:
Well put. This is not a game. 


On Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
"The fact that world H and world D are such closely adjacent possibles is what I am savoring (in the sense of morbid fascination) for roughly the next 24-36 hours. "

To first order, this isn't about the ideological aspirations of one candidate vs. the other (or the completely irrelevant others).  It's about choosing between a person who can and has managed in relevant circumstances, and a man-child that obviously needs to be managed and who obviously draws-from and amplifies the worst in people, has many indicators of an authoritarian personality, and is a likely target for blackmail and manipulation by foreign powers.   The potential upside of this non-contest  is that a thinker and policy wonk may sneak through as the winner by default.  Even stranger is that it would be historic -- and somehow that is almost a footnote.    The whole thing is surreal and even scarier than Brexit.

Marcus



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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Steve Smith
In reply to this post by Sarbajit Roy (testing)

Until fairly recently I didn't realize that "Populism" carried a negative connotation.  I had always heard it as a positive thing...

The tie between populism and the rise of fascism changed that for me.   I suppose *pure* populism is in fact fine, the awareness that the general population, the overwhelming majority of the citizenry, when pushed, can stand up to the elite (economic or political or both) who tend to find ways to run things for their own purposes without regard to the interests of the masses.

It seems that the current use of the term "populism" implies that the extant elite de-facto rulers can have THEIR lunch handed to them by another elite set of wanna-bes through the duping of the populace.   Hitler's rise to power was apparently on the rising tide of a disaffected populace through the use of "demagoguery, scapegoating, and conspiracism" according to Fritzsche.  This sounds just a bit (lot) too much like the working style of Herr Donald Drumpf this round.  

I don't like being manipulated by "the powers that be", but it isn't a bit more fun to have "the powers that wanna be" manipulate me into helping them have their wishes.  I *hope* some of Trumps Trumpeteers come to recognize how they were duped in what to me seems like a fairly obvious manner. 

And meanwhile I hope that the rest of the world can learn something of this movement from us (and the Brexiteers before us).

<sigh>


On 11/10/16 7:40 PM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
It seems that depressed economies imply we are going to have a rash of fascism everywhere. Here's to World War III. Cheers.

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 3:55 PM, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:
Well put. This is not a game. 


On Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
"The fact that world H and world D are such closely adjacent possibles is what I am savoring (in the sense of morbid fascination) for roughly the next 24-36 hours. "

To first order, this isn't about the ideological aspirations of one candidate vs. the other (or the completely irrelevant others).  It's about choosing between a person who can and has managed in relevant circumstances, and a man-child that obviously needs to be managed and who obviously draws-from and amplifies the worst in people, has many indicators of an authoritarian personality, and is a likely target for blackmail and manipulation by foreign powers.   The potential upside of this non-contest  is that a thinker and policy wonk may sneak through as the winner by default.  Even stranger is that it would be historic -- and somehow that is almost a footnote.    The whole thing is surreal and even scarier than Brexit.

Marcus




============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove


============================================================
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Frank Wimberly-2

Interesting, Steve.  "Populism" has long had a negative meaning for me.  Maybe that's because I took a couple of undergraduate courses that focussed on Huey Long.  In one of them (at Berkeley) the claim was made that Roosevelt saved the US from more radical solutions, represented by Long, with the New Deal.  Ironically, my father's uncle, who was also a Louisiana politician, was a sometimes enemy of his.  Uncle Shirley Wimberly wrote a monograph in which he referred to Long as "the Crawfish".  He was usually called the Kingfish.

Here's the reference:
http://www.worldcat.org/title/unmasking-crawfish-huey-p-long/oclc/9752600

Frank Wimberly
Phone<a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918"> (505) 670-9918


On Nov 10, 2016 8:43 PM, "Steven A Smith" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Until fairly recently I didn't realize that "Populism" carried a negative connotation.  I had always heard it as a positive thing...

The tie between populism and the rise of fascism changed that for me.   I suppose *pure* populism is in fact fine, the awareness that the general population, the overwhelming majority of the citizenry, when pushed, can stand up to the elite (economic or political or both) who tend to find ways to run things for their own purposes without regard to the interests of the masses.

It seems that the current use of the term "populism" implies that the extant elite de-facto rulers can have THEIR lunch handed to them by another elite set of wanna-bes through the duping of the populace.   Hitler's rise to power was apparently on the rising tide of a disaffected populace through the use of "demagoguery, scapegoating, and conspiracism" according to Fritzsche.  This sounds just a bit (lot) too much like the working style of Herr Donald Drumpf this round.  

I don't like being manipulated by "the powers that be", but it isn't a bit more fun to have "the powers that wanna be" manipulate me into helping them have their wishes.  I *hope* some of Trumps Trumpeteers come to recognize how they were duped in what to me seems like a fairly obvious manner. 

And meanwhile I hope that the rest of the world can learn something of this movement from us (and the Brexiteers before us).

<sigh>


On 11/10/16 7:40 PM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
It seems that depressed economies imply we are going to have a rash of fascism everywhere. Here's to World War III. Cheers.

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 3:55 PM, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:
Well put. This is not a game. 


On Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
"The fact that world H and world D are such closely adjacent possibles is what I am savoring (in the sense of morbid fascination) for roughly the next 24-36 hours. "

To first order, this isn't about the ideological aspirations of one candidate vs. the other (or the completely irrelevant others).  It's about choosing between a person who can and has managed in relevant circumstances, and a man-child that obviously needs to be managed and who obviously draws-from and amplifies the worst in people, has many indicators of an authoritarian personality, and is a likely target for blackmail and manipulation by foreign powers.   The potential upside of this non-contest  is that a thinker and policy wonk may sneak through as the winner by default.  Even stranger is that it would be historic -- and somehow that is almost a footnote.    The whole thing is surreal and even scarier than Brexit.

Marcus




============================================================
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove


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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Steve Smith

Fascinating Frank, thanks for the link! 

Having been something like an anarchist (not Anarchist) most of my life, I never felt threatened by or implicated in "Populism"...   I'm a bit of a knee-jerk anti-popular/ist on most topics, which I have to curb when the stakes go up.  Just because Xx10^Y people think something is a good idea, doesn't mean it is a deeply stupid one (though it is a hint that it might be).   Or maybe instead I should say, I have *always* felt threatened (albeit only mildly) by "popular" movements which includes but is not limited to "populist" movements as I now understand the term to be applicable.


It is also worth noting that I find many people use "fascism" somewhat differently than I do. 

  1. often associated with governing bodies: "fascist government!"
  2. often reserved for those specifically who enforce laws: "fascist pigs!"
  3. regularly associated with Nazi Germany: "fascist Nazi!"
  4. sometimes associated with corporate fascism as made popular by Mussolini

My own working definition is any system which holds it's own survival and smooth operations above the well being of those which the system ostensibly serves.   This tends to gather up all of the above but also applies to bureaucracy in any context (government, corporate, etc.)   I would even claim that fascism can be embodied and implemented by a system *without* humans involved in the perpetuation of it's actions...  this means that the people operating in a fascistly bureacratic context may not be particularly culpable themselves (watch Terry Gilliam's "Brazil"). 

My understand of the term might really just involve the specific "authoritarian" aspect of it, but I *do* make the distinction that there is an important "mindlessness" to it that makes it insidious... thus a single authoritarian figure is never nearly as fascist as an institution (in my mind).   Thus, a single rogue cop who takes his job too seriously is not nearly as "fascist" as an entire department which collectively behaves in this manner and inducts/indoctrinates new members into the same mindset as a matter of course.

In my mind, the Donald is not particularly "fascistic" himself, but his followers and the machine I suspect he has created to run his businesses (and soon our government) probably IS quite fascistic.

<rant off>

On 11/10/16 8:56 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Interesting, Steve.  "Populism" has long had a negative meaning for me.  Maybe that's because I took a couple of undergraduate courses that focussed on Huey Long.  In one of them (at Berkeley) the claim was made that Roosevelt saved the US from more radical solutions, represented by Long, with the New Deal.  Ironically, my father's uncle, who was also a Louisiana politician, was a sometimes enemy of his.  Uncle Shirley Wimberly wrote a monograph in which he referred to Long as "the Crawfish".  He was usually called the Kingfish.

Here's the reference:
http://www.worldcat.org/title/unmasking-crawfish-huey-p-long/oclc/9752600

Frank Wimberly
Phone<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918"> (505) 670-9918


On Nov 10, 2016 8:43 PM, "Steven A Smith" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Until fairly recently I didn't realize that "Populism" carried a negative connotation.  I had always heard it as a positive thing...

The tie between populism and the rise of fascism changed that for me.   I suppose *pure* populism is in fact fine, the awareness that the general population, the overwhelming majority of the citizenry, when pushed, can stand up to the elite (economic or political or both) who tend to find ways to run things for their own purposes without regard to the interests of the masses.

It seems that the current use of the term "populism" implies that the extant elite de-facto rulers can have THEIR lunch handed to them by another elite set of wanna-bes through the duping of the populace.   Hitler's rise to power was apparently on the rising tide of a disaffected populace through the use of "demagoguery, scapegoating, and conspiracism" according to Fritzsche.  This sounds just a bit (lot) too much like the working style of Herr Donald Drumpf this round.  

I don't like being manipulated by "the powers that be", but it isn't a bit more fun to have "the powers that wanna be" manipulate me into helping them have their wishes.  I *hope* some of Trumps Trumpeteers come to recognize how they were duped in what to me seems like a fairly obvious manner. 

And meanwhile I hope that the rest of the world can learn something of this movement from us (and the Brexiteers before us).

<sigh>


On 11/10/16 7:40 PM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
It seems that depressed economies imply we are going to have a rash of fascism everywhere. Here's to World War III. Cheers.

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 3:55 PM, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:
Well put. This is not a game. 


On Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
"The fact that world H and world D are such closely adjacent possibles is what I am savoring (in the sense of morbid fascination) for roughly the next 24-36 hours. "

To first order, this isn't about the ideological aspirations of one candidate vs. the other (or the completely irrelevant others).  It's about choosing between a person who can and has managed in relevant circumstances, and a man-child that obviously needs to be managed and who obviously draws-from and amplifies the worst in people, has many indicators of an authoritarian personality, and is a likely target for blackmail and manipulation by foreign powers.   The potential upside of this non-contest  is that a thinker and policy wonk may sneak through as the winner by default.  Even stranger is that it would be historic -- and somehow that is almost a footnote.    The whole thing is surreal and even scarier than Brexit.

Marcus




============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Vladimyr Burachynsky
In reply to this post by Steve Smith

Gentlemen and ladies,

 

There seem to be many diverse combatants demanding that we align our minds to facilitate their agendas or delusions.

 Am I ,your enemy if I choose to think for myself. Why must I accept unwanted fear from pundits.

 

It is very difficult to exist as an independent entity. 

 

Control freaks on either side expect us to capitulate and surrender our minds when all we want is to enjoy a few days more

of a too short life.

I expect the American nation will go through another  civil war now.

I hope the cold air keeps your issues contained to the south.

 

These Control Freaks are running amok yet we still deny they exist.

Do control freaks eventually destroy sentience, is it their goal?

 

I am saddened by your failure to adapt. The contagion, fear, is leaking through the rickety

northern border and we also have to  ask , Just who or what is the real enemy??

 

You were humanities Highest  Standard, you led  the  entire world to follow, now you fight amongst  yourselves.

.

Take a deep breath and gather your wits. Its not the end yet.

It may have been a hard blow but you have survived much worse.

If you need help , we are still standing with you.

 

The Radical Moderate

vib



 


From: "Steven A Smith" <[hidden email]>
To: "The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group" <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2016 9:34:25 PM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Until fairly recently I didn't realize that "Populism" carried a negative connotation.  I had always heard it as a positive thing...

The tie between populism and the rise of fascism changed that for me.   I suppose *pure* populism is in fact fine, the awareness that the general population, the overwhelming majority of the citizenry, when pushed, can stand up to the elite (economic or political or both) who tend to find ways to run things for their own purposes without regard to the interests of the masses.

It seems that the current use of the term "populism" implies that the extant elite de-facto rulers can have THEIR lunch handed to them by another elite set of wanna-bes through the duping of the populace.   Hitler's rise to power was apparently on the rising tide of a disaffected populace through the use of "demagoguery, scapegoating, and conspiracism" according to Fritzsche.  This sounds just a bit (lot) too much like the working style of Herr Donald Drumpf this round.  

I don't like being manipulated by "the powers that be", but it isn't a bit more fun to have "the powers that wanna be" manipulate me into helping them have their wishes.  I *hope* some of Trumps Trumpeteers come to recognize how they were duped in what to me seems like a fairly obvious manner. 

And meanwhile I hope that the rest of the world can learn something of this movement from us (and the Brexiteers before us).

<sigh>


On 11/10/16 7:40 PM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
It seems that depressed economies imply we are going to have a rash of fascism everywhere. Here's to World War III. Cheers.

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 3:55 PM, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:
Well put. This is not a game. 


On Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
"The fact that world H and world D are such closely adjacent possibles is what I am savoring (in the sense of morbid fascination) for roughly the next 24-36 hours. "

To first order, this isn't about the ideological aspirations of one candidate vs. the other (or the completely irrelevant others).  It's about choosing between a person who can and has managed in relevant circumstances, and a man-child that obviously needs to be managed and who obviously draws-from and amplifies the worst in people, has many indicators of an authoritarian personality, and is a likely target for blackmail and manipulation by foreign powers.   The potential upside of this non-contest  is that a thinker and policy wonk may sneak through as the winner by default.  Even stranger is that it would be historic -- and somehow that is almost a footnote.    The whole thing is surreal and even scarier than Brexit.

Marcus




============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove


============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove


============================================================
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Steve Smith
In reply to this post by Steve Smith

One pundit's measure of Trump's "Fascism":

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/10/21/how-fascist-is-donald-trump-theres-actually-a-formula-for-that/


On 11/10/16 9:33 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

Fascinating Frank, thanks for the link! 

Having been something like an anarchist (not Anarchist) most of my life, I never felt threatened by or implicated in "Populism"...   I'm a bit of a knee-jerk anti-popular/ist on most topics, which I have to curb when the stakes go up.  Just because Xx10^Y people think something is a good idea, doesn't mean it is a deeply stupid one (though it is a hint that it might be).   Or maybe instead I should say, I have *always* felt threatened (albeit only mildly) by "popular" movements which includes but is not limited to "populist" movements as I now understand the term to be applicable.


It is also worth noting that I find many people use "fascism" somewhat differently than I do. 

  1. often associated with governing bodies: "fascist government!"
  2. often reserved for those specifically who enforce laws: "fascist pigs!"
  3. regularly associated with Nazi Germany: "fascist Nazi!"
  4. sometimes associated with corporate fascism as made popular by Mussolini

My own working definition is any system which holds it's own survival and smooth operations above the well being of those which the system ostensibly serves.   This tends to gather up all of the above but also applies to bureaucracy in any context (government, corporate, etc.)   I would even claim that fascism can be embodied and implemented by a system *without* humans involved in the perpetuation of it's actions...  this means that the people operating in a fascistly bureacratic context may not be particularly culpable themselves (watch Terry Gilliam's "Brazil"). 

My understand of the term might really just involve the specific "authoritarian" aspect of it, but I *do* make the distinction that there is an important "mindlessness" to it that makes it insidious... thus a single authoritarian figure is never nearly as fascist as an institution (in my mind).   Thus, a single rogue cop who takes his job too seriously is not nearly as "fascist" as an entire department which collectively behaves in this manner and inducts/indoctrinates new members into the same mindset as a matter of course.

In my mind, the Donald is not particularly "fascistic" himself, but his followers and the machine I suspect he has created to run his businesses (and soon our government) probably IS quite fascistic.

<rant off>

On 11/10/16 8:56 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Interesting, Steve.  "Populism" has long had a negative meaning for me.  Maybe that's because I took a couple of undergraduate courses that focussed on Huey Long.  In one of them (at Berkeley) the claim was made that Roosevelt saved the US from more radical solutions, represented by Long, with the New Deal.  Ironically, my father's uncle, who was also a Louisiana politician, was a sometimes enemy of his.  Uncle Shirley Wimberly wrote a monograph in which he referred to Long as "the Crawfish".  He was usually called the Kingfish.

Here's the reference:
http://www.worldcat.org/title/unmasking-crawfish-huey-p-long/oclc/9752600

Frank Wimberly
Phone<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918"> (505) 670-9918


On Nov 10, 2016 8:43 PM, "Steven A Smith" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Until fairly recently I didn't realize that "Populism" carried a negative connotation.  I had always heard it as a positive thing...

The tie between populism and the rise of fascism changed that for me.   I suppose *pure* populism is in fact fine, the awareness that the general population, the overwhelming majority of the citizenry, when pushed, can stand up to the elite (economic or political or both) who tend to find ways to run things for their own purposes without regard to the interests of the masses.

It seems that the current use of the term "populism" implies that the extant elite de-facto rulers can have THEIR lunch handed to them by another elite set of wanna-bes through the duping of the populace.   Hitler's rise to power was apparently on the rising tide of a disaffected populace through the use of "demagoguery, scapegoating, and conspiracism" according to Fritzsche.  This sounds just a bit (lot) too much like the working style of Herr Donald Drumpf this round.  

I don't like being manipulated by "the powers that be", but it isn't a bit more fun to have "the powers that wanna be" manipulate me into helping them have their wishes.  I *hope* some of Trumps Trumpeteers come to recognize how they were duped in what to me seems like a fairly obvious manner. 

And meanwhile I hope that the rest of the world can learn something of this movement from us (and the Brexiteers before us).

<sigh>


On 11/10/16 7:40 PM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
It seems that depressed economies imply we are going to have a rash of fascism everywhere. Here's to World War III. Cheers.

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 3:55 PM, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:
Well put. This is not a game. 


On Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
"The fact that world H and world D are such closely adjacent possibles is what I am savoring (in the sense of morbid fascination) for roughly the next 24-36 hours. "

To first order, this isn't about the ideological aspirations of one candidate vs. the other (or the completely irrelevant others).  It's about choosing between a person who can and has managed in relevant circumstances, and a man-child that obviously needs to be managed and who obviously draws-from and amplifies the worst in people, has many indicators of an authoritarian personality, and is a likely target for blackmail and manipulation by foreign powers.   The potential upside of this non-contest  is that a thinker and policy wonk may sneak through as the winner by default.  Even stranger is that it would be historic -- and somehow that is almost a footnote.    The whole thing is surreal and even scarier than Brexit.

Marcus




============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Owen Densmore
Administrator
In reply to this post by Vladimyr Burachynsky
Bravo! Nicely said. I like it because, I think, it goes well with my treatise On The Conservation of Damn's. 

   -- Owen


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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

gepr
In reply to this post by Vladimyr Burachynsky

But it's useful to remember that collectives are not organisms, regardless how attractive that analogy is.  This is one of the reasons I care more about the liver rather than, say, the brain.  In collectives, individuals that _seem_ entrained in some forcing structure, that for all intents and purposes _act_ as if entrained, are free to pop out of the structure at any time.  In some cases, that means they soon die off, when they remove their self from the only context in which their repertoire leads to survival.  But in some cases, dormant parts of their repertoire re-emerge and allow them to survive away from the pack ... or, er, film/tissue of which they were part.

The control sought and seemingly achieved by the control freaks is always illusory.  And the illusion is only held as long as the controlled are unwilling to take the risks involved in exiting the tissue.

Hence, it is not, at all, difficult to exist and act as an independent entity.  We are all doing so right now, even if we've chosen to act as if we were not doing that choosing.  What is difficult is to act in opposition to the forcing structure(s).  Don't celebrate independence.  Celebrate opposition.

"Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing."


On 11/10/2016 09:08 PM, VLADIMYR BURACHYNSKY wrote:
> There seem to be many diverse combatants demanding that we align our minds to facilitate their agendas or delusions.
>
>  Am I ,your enemy if I choose to think for myself. Why must I accept unwanted fear from pundits.
>
> It is very difficult to exist as an independent entity.
>
> Control freaks on either side expect us to capitulate and surrender our minds when all we want is to enjoy a few days more of a too short life.

--
␦glen?

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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Marcus G. Daniels
In reply to this post by Vladimyr Burachynsky

"Control freaks on either side expect us to capitulate and surrender our minds when all we want is to enjoy a few days more of a too short life."

It is not a control freak that seeks marriage equality, or the right to vote, or the end of slavery.  These were hard fought battles for basic civil rights.   One could argue that the only way to reduce resentment is to be an incrementalist and a moderate and accept whatever arbitrary value systems of the current demographics as being the deep constraints, and not just practical constraints.    Without an ideal behind politics, there is no where to go, no reason to adapt.  There's nothing to talk about.  Peace is nothing more than falling in line to whatever power structures happen to exist.  We may fight, but consider the possibility that something is at stake.   

Marcus


From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of VLADIMYR BURACHYNSKY <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2016 10:08:48 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight
 

Gentlemen and ladies,

 

There seem to be many diverse combatants demanding that we align our minds to facilitate their agendas or delusions.

 Am I ,your enemy if I choose to think for myself. Why must I accept unwanted fear from pundits.

 

It is very difficult to exist as an independent entity. 

 

Control freaks on either side expect us to capitulate and surrender our minds when all we want is to enjoy a few days more

of a too short life.

I expect the American nation will go through another  civil war now.

I hope the cold air keeps your issues contained to the south.

 

These Control Freaks are running amok yet we still deny they exist.

Do control freaks eventually destroy sentience, is it their goal?

 

I am saddened by your failure to adapt. The contagion, fear, is leaking through the rickety

northern border and we also have to  ask , Just who or what is the real enemy??

 

You were humanities Highest  Standard, you led  the  entire world to follow, now you fight amongst  yourselves.

.

Take a deep breath and gather your wits. Its not the end yet.

It may have been a hard blow but you have survived much worse.

If you need help , we are still standing with you.

 

The Radical Moderate

vib



 


From: "Steven A Smith" <[hidden email]>
To: "The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group" <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2016 9:34:25 PM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Until fairly recently I didn't realize that "Populism" carried a negative connotation.  I had always heard it as a positive thing...

The tie between populism and the rise of fascism changed that for me.   I suppose *pure* populism is in fact fine, the awareness that the general population, the overwhelming majority of the citizenry, when pushed, can stand up to the elite (economic or political or both) who tend to find ways to run things for their own purposes without regard to the interests of the masses.

It seems that the current use of the term "populism" implies that the extant elite de-facto rulers can have THEIR lunch handed to them by another elite set of wanna-bes through the duping of the populace.   Hitler's rise to power was apparently on the rising tide of a disaffected populace through the use of "demagoguery, scapegoating, and conspiracism" according to Fritzsche.  This sounds just a bit (lot) too much like the working style of Herr Donald Drumpf this round.  

I don't like being manipulated by "the powers that be", but it isn't a bit more fun to have "the powers that wanna be" manipulate me into helping them have their wishes.  I *hope* some of Trumps Trumpeteers come to recognize how they were duped in what to me seems like a fairly obvious manner. 

And meanwhile I hope that the rest of the world can learn something of this movement from us (and the Brexiteers before us).

<sigh>


On 11/10/16 7:40 PM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
It seems that depressed economies imply we are going to have a rash of fascism everywhere. Here's to World War III. Cheers.

On Tue, Nov 8, 2016 at 3:55 PM, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:
Well put. This is not a game. 


On Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
"The fact that world H and world D are such closely adjacent possibles is what I am savoring (in the sense of morbid fascination) for roughly the next 24-36 hours. "

To first order, this isn't about the ideological aspirations of one candidate vs. the other (or the completely irrelevant others).  It's about choosing between a person who can and has managed in relevant circumstances, and a man-child that obviously needs to be managed and who obviously draws-from and amplifies the worst in people, has many indicators of an authoritarian personality, and is a likely target for blackmail and manipulation by foreign powers.   The potential upside of this non-contest  is that a thinker and policy wonk may sneak through as the winner by default.  Even stranger is that it would be historic -- and somehow that is almost a footnote.    The whole thing is surreal and even scarier than Brexit.

Marcus




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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Vladimyr Burachynsky
In reply to this post by gepr

Glen,

 

Knowing that power is an illusion seems to make little difference to those

that believe Power is the Ultimate Goal.

Often the illusion requires pure cruelty to be regularly applied as confirmation of its existence, followed  then by ardent denial.

 

Believing in Power is a type of madness that justifies

annihilation of non-Believers.

So should we all become two-faced hypocrites just to Survive the Madness?

My father tried to teach that  strategy to his boys as a consequence of his incarceration

during the war years.

"Make, nice and live" 

 

bye the way I do relish reading your pithy notes. I love your subdued  yet civilized ferocity.

 

I have noted that Control Freaks are generally very loosely attached to ethics.

That lack of ethics is often considered Ruthlessness and so Clever replaces Intelligence.

 

So what should Canada do about a possible invasion from our  neighbours to the south.

I expect such refugees are going to be problematic...

 

Canada is well aware of the constraints imposed by the Americans and our independence has been

extraordinarily difficult to maintain.

vib


From: "┣glen┫" <[hidden email]>
To: "The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group" <[hidden email]>
Sent: Friday, November 11, 2016 11:38:56 AM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight


But it's useful to remember that collectives are not organisms, regardless how attractive that analogy is.  This is one of the reasons I care more about the liver rather than, say, the brain.  In collectives, individuals that _seem_ entrained in some forcing structure, that for all intents and purposes _act_ as if entrained, are free to pop out of the structure at any time.  In some cases, that means they soon die off, when they remove their self from the only context in which their repertoire leads to survival.  But in some cases, dormant parts of their repertoire re-emerge and allow them to survive away from the pack ... or, er, film/tissue of which they were part.

The control sought and seemingly achieved by the control freaks is always illusory.  And the illusion is only held as long as the controlled are unwilling to take the risks involved in exiting the tissue.

Hence, it is not, at all, difficult to exist and act as an independent entity.  We are all doing so right now, even if we've chosen to act as if we were not doing that choosing.  What is difficult is to act in opposition to the forcing structure(s).  Don't celebrate independence.  Celebrate opposition.

"Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing."


On 11/10/2016 09:08 PM, VLADIMYR BURACHYNSKY wrote:
> There seem to be many diverse combatants demanding that we align our minds to facilitate their agendas or delusions.
>
>  Am I ,your enemy if I choose to think for myself. Why must I accept unwanted fear from pundits.
>
> It is very difficult to exist as an independent entity.
>
> Control freaks on either side expect us to capitulate and surrender our minds when all we want is to enjoy a few days more of a too short life.

--
␦glen?

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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Gary Schiltz-4
Despite dissatisfaction with the outcome of the election, I believe the USA is very unlikely in the near future to have people "fleeing" from it, resulting in Americans being seen as "refugees" in Canada. It is still a very stable democracy, and I believe it will stay that way for generations to come. Of course, I could be wrong.

On Fri, Nov 11, 2016 at 8:54 PM, VLADIMYR BURACHYNSKY <[hidden email]> wrote:

Glen,

 

Knowing that power is an illusion seems to make little difference to those

that believe Power is the Ultimate Goal.

Often the illusion requires pure cruelty to be regularly applied as confirmation of its existence, followed  then by ardent denial.

 

Believing in Power is a type of madness that justifies

annihilation of non-Believers.

So should we all become two-faced hypocrites just to Survive the Madness?

My father tried to teach that  strategy to his boys as a consequence of his incarceration

during the war years.

"Make, nice and live" 

 

bye the way I do relish reading your pithy notes. I love your subdued  yet civilized ferocity.

 

I have noted that Control Freaks are generally very loosely attached to ethics.

That lack of ethics is often considered Ruthlessness and so Clever replaces Intelligence.

 

So what should Canada do about a possible invasion from our  neighbours to the south.

I expect such refugees are going to be problematic...

 

Canada is well aware of the constraints imposed by the Americans and our independence has been

extraordinarily difficult to maintain.

vib


From: "┣glen┫" <[hidden email]>
To: "The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group" <[hidden email]>
Sent: Friday, November 11, 2016 11:38:56 AM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight


But it's useful to remember that collectives are not organisms, regardless how attractive that analogy is.  This is one of the reasons I care more about the liver rather than, say, the brain.  In collectives, individuals that _seem_ entrained in some forcing structure, that for all intents and purposes _act_ as if entrained, are free to pop out of the structure at any time.  In some cases, that means they soon die off, when they remove their self from the only context in which their repertoire leads to survival.  But in some cases, dormant parts of their repertoire re-emerge and allow them to survive away from the pack ... or, er, film/tissue of which they were part.

The control sought and seemingly achieved by the control freaks is always illusory.  And the illusion is only held as long as the controlled are unwilling to take the risks involved in exiting the tissue.

Hence, it is not, at all, difficult to exist and act as an independent entity.  We are all doing so right now, even if we've chosen to act as if we were not doing that choosing.  What is difficult is to act in opposition to the forcing structure(s).  Don't celebrate independence.  Celebrate opposition.

"Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing."


On 11/10/2016 09:08 PM, VLADIMYR BURACHYNSKY wrote:
> There seem to be many diverse combatants demanding that we align our minds to facilitate their agendas or delusions.
>
>  Am I ,your enemy if I choose to think for myself. Why must I accept unwanted fear from pundits.
>
> It is very difficult to exist as an independent entity.
>
> Control freaks on either side expect us to capitulate and surrender our minds when all we want is to enjoy a few days more of a too short life.

--
␦glen?

============================================================
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to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

gepr
In reply to this post by Vladimyr Burachynsky
Those are all excellent points and I find it difficult to disagree with any of them.  But I'll try anyway. 8^) ... interleaved below.

On 11/11/2016 05:54 PM, VLADIMYR BURACHYNSKY wrote:
> Knowing that power is an illusion seems to make little difference to those that believe Power is the Ultimate Goal.
> Often the illusion requires pure cruelty to be regularly applied as confirmation of its existence, followed  then by ardent denial.
> Believing in Power is a type of madness that justifies annihilation of non-Believers.
> So should we all become two-faced hypocrites just to Survive the Madness?

Well, yes, except that we need more than 2 faces, perhaps an infinitely extensible face-field, adaptable to whatever (illusory) power structure we find available at any given time+place?  I suppose it may not be quite right to call it "illusory".  If thinking in terms of power provides predictable levers by which to manipulate people, then it lies somewhere between illusion and reality.  Do all things that _work_ have to exist ontologically?  Is potential energy just as real as kinetic energy?

> My father tried to teach that  strategy to his boys as a consequence of his incarceration during the war years.
> "Make, nice and live"

Heh, my dad was obviously (at least) 2-faced.  To everyone outside the family, he was jolly go lucky nice guy to have around, compassionate boss, tough but fair tax assessor, etc.  To us, he was tyrant and drill sergeant, "this hurts me more than it does you but it's for your own good" benevolent dictator.  Such context-dependent power wielding was an inherent part of my upbringing.

> bye the way I do relish reading your pithy notes. I love your subdued  yet civilized ferocity.

Thanks.  And you never fail to pry at the interesting fissures!

> I have noted that Control Freaks are generally very loosely attached to ethics.
> That lack of ethics is often considered Ruthlessness and so Clever replaces Intelligence.
> So what should Canada do about a possible invasion from our  neighbours to the south.
> I expect such refugees are going to be problematic...
> Canada is well aware of the constraints imposed by the Americans and our independence has been extraordinarily difficult to maintain.

I know everyone will laugh at me for this.  But I tend to think of Canada as more powerful than the US ... but it's a "soft" style, like judo vs karate.  If Canada can continue softening and redirecting the US's (and the UK's) more savant-like actions, it will play a critical role in the formation of the coming landscape.  We are like children whose stature has outstripped their parents'.  Yes, we can flatten our parents with a good body-slam or straight up punches.  But we're no match for even the slightest subtlety.  Studious manipulation is what we need, especially with our new Clown in Chief.

--
␦glen?

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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Marcus G. Daniels
"I know everyone will laugh at me for this.  But I tend to think of Canada as more powerful than the US ... but it's a "soft" style, like judo vs karate."

Look at small cities like Burnaby BC where they are inventing and commercializing quantum computing (D-Wave) and fusion energy (General Fusion).  It does make one pause to think what is possible with a steady but focused approach. 

Marcus 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]>
Sent: Saturday, November 12, 2016 10:28:52 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight
 
Those are all excellent points and I find it difficult to disagree with any of them.  But I'll try anyway. 8^) ... interleaved below.

On 11/11/2016 05:54 PM, VLADIMYR BURACHYNSKY wrote:
> Knowing that power is an illusion seems to make little difference to those that believe Power is the Ultimate Goal.
> Often the illusion requires pure cruelty to be regularly applied as confirmation of its existence, followed  then by ardent denial.
> Believing in Power is a type of madness that justifies annihilation of non-Believers.
> So should we all become two-faced hypocrites just to Survive the Madness?

Well, yes, except that we need more than 2 faces, perhaps an infinitely extensible face-field, adaptable to whatever (illusory) power structure we find available at any given time+place?  I suppose it may not be quite right to call it "illusory".  If thinking in terms of power provides predictable levers by which to manipulate people, then it lies somewhere between illusion and reality.  Do all things that _work_ have to exist ontologically?  Is potential energy just as real as kinetic energy?

> My father tried to teach that  strategy to his boys as a consequence of his incarceration during the war years.
> "Make, nice and live"

Heh, my dad was obviously (at least) 2-faced.  To everyone outside the family, he was jolly go lucky nice guy to have around, compassionate boss, tough but fair tax assessor, etc.  To us, he was tyrant and drill sergeant, "this hurts me more than it does you but it's for your own good" benevolent dictator.  Such context-dependent power wielding was an inherent part of my upbringing.

> bye the way I do relish reading your pithy notes. I love your subdued  yet civilized ferocity.

Thanks.  And you never fail to pry at the interesting fissures!

> I have noted that Control Freaks are generally very loosely attached to ethics.
> That lack of ethics is often considered Ruthlessness and so Clever replaces Intelligence.
> So what should Canada do about a possible invasion from our  neighbours to the south.
> I expect such refugees are going to be problematic...
> Canada is well aware of the constraints imposed by the Americans and our independence has been extraordinarily difficult to maintain.

I know everyone will laugh at me for this.  But I tend to think of Canada as more powerful than the US ... but it's a "soft" style, like judo vs karate.  If Canada can continue softening and redirecting the US's (and the UK's) more savant-like actions, it will play a critical role in the formation of the coming landscape.  We are like children whose stature has outstripped their parents'.  Yes, we can flatten our parents with a good body-slam or straight up punches.  But we're no match for even the slightest subtlety.  Studious manipulation is what we need, especially with our new Clown in Chief.

--
␦glen?

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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Marcus G. Daniels

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]>
Sent: Saturday, November 12, 2016 10:40:02 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight
 
"I know everyone will laugh at me for this.  But I tend to think of Canada as more powerful than the US ... but it's a "soft" style, like judo vs karate."

Look at small cities like Burnaby BC where they are inventing and commercializing quantum computing (D-Wave) and fusion energy (General Fusion).  It does make one pause to think what is possible with a steady but focused approach. 

Marcus 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]>
Sent: Saturday, November 12, 2016 10:28:52 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight
 
Those are all excellent points and I find it difficult to disagree with any of them.  But I'll try anyway. 8^) ... interleaved below.

On 11/11/2016 05:54 PM, VLADIMYR BURACHYNSKY wrote:
> Knowing that power is an illusion seems to make little difference to those that believe Power is the Ultimate Goal.
> Often the illusion requires pure cruelty to be regularly applied as confirmation of its existence, followed  then by ardent denial.
> Believing in Power is a type of madness that justifies annihilation of non-Believers.
> So should we all become two-faced hypocrites just to Survive the Madness?

Well, yes, except that we need more than 2 faces, perhaps an infinitely extensible face-field, adaptable to whatever (illusory) power structure we find available at any given time+place?  I suppose it may not be quite right to call it "illusory".  If thinking in terms of power provides predictable levers by which to manipulate people, then it lies somewhere between illusion and reality.  Do all things that _work_ have to exist ontologically?  Is potential energy just as real as kinetic energy?

> My father tried to teach that  strategy to his boys as a consequence of his incarceration during the war years.
> "Make, nice and live"

Heh, my dad was obviously (at least) 2-faced.  To everyone outside the family, he was jolly go lucky nice guy to have around, compassionate boss, tough but fair tax assessor, etc.  To us, he was tyrant and drill sergeant, "this hurts me more than it does you but it's for your own good" benevolent dictator.  Such context-dependent power wielding was an inherent part of my upbringing.

> bye the way I do relish reading your pithy notes. I love your subdued  yet civilized ferocity.

Thanks.  And you never fail to pry at the interesting fissures!

> I have noted that Control Freaks are generally very loosely attached to ethics.
> That lack of ethics is often considered Ruthlessness and so Clever replaces Intelligence.
> So what should Canada do about a possible invasion from our  neighbours to the south.
> I expect such refugees are going to be problematic...
> Canada is well aware of the constraints imposed by the Americans and our independence has been extraordinarily difficult to maintain.

I know everyone will laugh at me for this.  But I tend to think of Canada as more powerful than the US ... but it's a "soft" style, like judo vs karate.  If Canada can continue softening and redirecting the US's (and the UK's) more savant-like actions, it will play a critical role in the formation of the coming landscape.  We are like children whose stature has outstripped their parents'.  Yes, we can flatten our parents with a good body-slam or straight up punches.  But we're no match for even the slightest subtlety.  Studious manipulation is what we need, especially with our new Clown in Chief.

--
␦glen?

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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Marcus G. Daniels
In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

Reading this, it is hard to offer any of my reserve for them.

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2016 4:27 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

I *love* the bubble!

 

Joy is Hope's best friend.

 

BTW: I realize I've posted this in the past, and my version of it uses s/fuck/damn/. But I've only got a limited number of Damn's to give, and the fewer, the stronger.

 

So I just don't give a Damn about the president, no matter who. I have too few to give. My first Damn is for Love & Compassion, kinda weak I realize but then I think I can stop war by being peaceful myself. It all starts at home.

 

So how are your Damn's coming along?

 

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 11:05 AM, Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

The funny part of this -- there are actually many funny parts, but I'll save some for later -- the immediately funny part is that I've been literally living in a bubble for a week now.  I attach a degraded cell phone image as demonstration.

 

And, no, we are not sailing off in the near future.  It would waste the money we spent on the nifty bubble, and it's sort of hard to get out of the marina at this point.

 

Anyway, I have high expectations for The Political Apprentice.

 

-- rec --

 

 

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 12:34 PM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

OTOH: California, Massachusetts and Nevada legalized marijuana.


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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Frank Wimberly-2

Another relevant article

https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918


On Nov 12, 2016 3:54 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Reading this, it is hard to offer any of my reserve for them.

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2016 4:27 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

I *love* the bubble!

 

Joy is Hope's best friend.

 

BTW: I realize I've posted this in the past, and my version of it uses s/fuck/damn/. But I've only got a limited number of Damn's to give, and the fewer, the stronger.

 

So I just don't give a Damn about the president, no matter who. I have too few to give. My first Damn is for Love & Compassion, kinda weak I realize but then I think I can stop war by being peaceful myself. It all starts at home.

 

So how are your Damn's coming along?

 

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 11:05 AM, Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

The funny part of this -- there are actually many funny parts, but I'll save some for later -- the immediately funny part is that I've been literally living in a bubble for a week now.  I attach a degraded cell phone image as demonstration.

 

And, no, we are not sailing off in the near future.  It would waste the money we spent on the nifty bubble, and it's sort of hard to get out of the marina at this point.

 

Anyway, I have high expectations for The Political Apprentice.

 

-- rec --

 

 

On Wed, Nov 9, 2016 at 12:34 PM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

OTOH: California, Massachusetts and Nevada legalized marijuana.


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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Steve Smith



> Another relevant article
>
> https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class
>
Frank -

Thanks for this article.   Between bouts of thinking up
worst-case-scenarios and then how one man's Dystopia is another's
Utopia, I also struggle to understand the deeper causes and consequences.

I personally come from the true Rural America where extractive
industries (grazing/timber/mining) were called "honest work" before the
resources they were tapping began to dry up and/or show the unintended
consequences ( pollution, global warming, etc.).  I can directly
sympathize with how they got into the untenable circumstances they seem
to be wedged in.   Unfortunately, I *never* had a good apprehension of
the factory worker mentality, even though most of those people probably
left a rural lifestyle for WWII and stayed on to build what ultimately
became the rust belt.

I think it is unconscionable that the likes of Trump deliberately mines
their misery and fear with promises of returning those unsustainable
lifestyles to a new  central place in the American self-image and
economy?   I think I understand WHY this subset of the red staters are
so smug about this turn of events, I'm just not sure how to help them
use this to get (some of?) what they want without helping them shoot
themselves (and the rest of us?) in the foot.  Can middle America be
great again without accelerating climate change, destroying the rest of
the aquifers and watersheds, acting out racist and xenophobic passion
plays?   I hope so, but I think the latter is roughly what Trump
promised them, as self-defeating as it is.

The number of WWC women (62% according to the article) voting for Trump
is probably the majority of the unexpected difference in votes?   Many
would ask "what were they thinking"... but I know a number of women in
this class and they are quite serious that this is going to be good for
them...

-Steve

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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Marcus G. Daniels
In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

Frank writes:
"Another relevant article
Thanks for the article.   I wonder, are there really surprises here, especially to our middle aged (and older) readers?
Oregon tends to vote democrat thanks to Portland and the large university town of Eugene.  Most of the rest of the state is conservative.   There are some exceptions like Bend (in the center of the state) that is becoming less conservative.   Outside of the suburbs of these it is conservative.  
I grew up just below the Cascade foothills and some kids from my high school did live in the hills.  Families in the area often worked in the Willamette valley in agriculture or in timber business or in various kinds of blue collar support jobs.  There wasn't much in the way of professional work and I didn't know any kids, except for my father, that had parents that drove into the city to work.  He was a teacher.
I recognize the families in these articles.  However, it is from the perspective of someone that felt captive in such a community.    Looking back, my frustration toward them didn't come anything my parents said or did, but from the awareness that the community didn't value learning and hated dissent.  They valued calloused hands, sucking it up, and going to church.  The dignity of work relied on this set of assumptions. Dignity was important.  (Given these assumptions I claim the dignity is just invented and illusory.)
It was hard to find a way out of this community.   For one thing, this was before the Internet.   There were a few teachers that tried to help, but I don't think that even some of the good ones knew what to do to develop their own intellectual lives.   Others didn't know enough to feel despair.  Modems were available but it was long distance rates and I could spend money faster than I could make it.   In those days it was important to get into the city to go to school, to establish an intellectual social network, and learn about opportunities. 
Now there is the Internet.   I understand the concern that people now see the world through their Facebook filters, etc.  and don't consider opposing points of view.  But, at least in principle, it is possible to find people with shared interests outside of a geographic region, and this is important for a person to measure and develop their skills.  It is something Millennials do have that is new and good. 
I understand that poor families may not be able to create an environment for kids to explore or study.    There is neither time, space or resources to do it.   My experience is there is another important factor for lower middle class areas:  The values of the community itself are an obstacle to change.   When I look at Van Jones' series on CNN interviewing voters in Gettysburg PA, I feel pretty confident I know folks like that.   They are collectively self-reinforcing that they can't change, don't want do, and shouldn't have to.   Donald Trump comes along and tells them they are right, and furthermore that illegal immigrants and trade policy are to blame.   
The HBR article claims that professionals are distrusted by the white working class.  That is consistent with my experience too.   Of course, it isn't unique to the class.  Professionals are constantly being told by other `senior' professionals what to do, and often it is poor or even ridiculous guidance.   Just look at the popularity of Dilbert.   It seems like a pretty profound lack of imagination to think that Hillary Clinton hasn't been given some pretty ridiculous `guidance' in her time in government, too.   See the recent Frontline on the candidates for a soul-crushing story of the horrors and disappointments she's been though.  
Marcus







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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Owen Densmore
Administrator
Support Classless Society: Invite blue collar folks to wedtech lunch and friam coffee/breakfast. Oops, forgot, they're working.

Hmm... well we could move one to the weekend?

Now that *would* be radical.

   -- Owen


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Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Tom Johnson
"You can't lift the hammer, can you!"

tj


============================================
Tom Johnson
Institute for Analytic Journalism   --     Santa Fe, NM USA
505.577.6482(c)                                    505.473.9646(h)
Society of Professional Journalists 
Check out It's The People's Data
http://www.jtjohnson.com                   [hidden email]
============================================

On Sun, Nov 13, 2016 at 12:54 PM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:
Support Classless Society: Invite blue collar folks to wedtech lunch and friam coffee/breakfast. Oops, forgot, they're working.

Hmm... well we could move one to the weekend?

Now that *would* be radical.

   -- Owen


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