election eve

[gepr]

One thing that confuses me is Trump being attributed 267 vs 268 EVs. But I suppose it could be Maine, with it's split representation:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-04-20/h_f5ca6d24c85ac45e193bf0b1c9b1a2f6


On 11/4/20 10:12 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Nick,
>
> See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  
>
[...]
>     Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.
>
>     227+16+10+11+6 = 270
>     213+3+15+20+16 = 267

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[Eric Charles-2]

" they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama "

I know it's a bit of a tangent... but is that actually true? 

I'm not sure I've ever found it overly hard to understand why other people are afraid of things I'm not. Talk to people for a while, poke and prod at their ideas, observe their behavior, etc. It's not instantaneous, but I understand lots of things people were scared about under Obama (some of which happened, some of which would have happened if the Democrats had kept congress, and others of which were never going to happen in a million years). 

The fundamental challenge of being a liberal, in the classical sense, is that it obligates you to try to understand the desires and fears of those who disagree with you. The fundamental benefit of being authoritarian is that it comes with no such obligation.  

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 1:05 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus,  The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us;  let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  Like a bit of a wild fling.  They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader.  Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on.  That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama.  I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said.  I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush.  "Yes," she went on.  "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in." 

Kerry, DANGEROUS?  My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt.  But she really was quaking with fear..  Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell.  Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/



-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before:  Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

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[thompnickson2]

The fundamental challenge of being a liberal, in the classical sense, is that it obligates you to try to understand the desires and fears of those who disagree with you

 

Boy, Howdy.  You got that one right!

 

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Eric Charles
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:18 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

 

" they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama "

 

I know it's a bit of a tangent... but is that actually true? 

 

I'm not sure I've ever found it overly hard to understand why other people are afraid of things I'm not. Talk to people for a while, poke and prod at their ideas, observe their behavior, etc. It's not instantaneous, but I understand lots of things people were scared about under Obama (some of which happened, some of which would have happened if the Democrats had kept congress, and others of which were never going to happen in a million years). 

 

The fundamental challenge of being a liberal, in the classical sense, is that it obligates you to try to understand the desires and fears of those who disagree with you. The fundamental benefit of being authoritarian is that it comes with no such obligation.  

 

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 1:05 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus,  The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us;  let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  Like a bit of a wild fling.  They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader.  Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on.  That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama.  I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said.  I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush.  "Yes," she went on.  "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in." 

Kerry, DANGEROUS?  My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt.  But she really was quaking with fear..  Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell.  Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/



-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before:  Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

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[Frank Wimberly-2]

Nick,

Senate still undecided but it doesn't look great.

Frank

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020, 11:14 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

But we didn’t get the senate, right?

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:12 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

 

Nick,

 

See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  

 

But it's too close for relaxation.

 

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

 

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020, 11:05 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus,  The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us;  let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  Like a bit of a wild fling.  They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader.  Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on.  That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama.  I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said.  I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush.  "Yes," she went on.  "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in." 

Kerry, DANGEROUS?  My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt.  But she really was quaking with fear..  Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell.  Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/



-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before:  Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
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[Marcus G. Daniels]

Nick wrote:

< I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  >

Let me just give you my visceral response:   If one is doing ok -- not having your neck crushed under the knee of a cop or starving -- then I have the expectation that a person persuade on the basis on what is good for everyone, not what is good for them.    I don't care how they make money.   That is their problem.   I did fine under Bush, Obama, and even Trump.   I'm a lucky one.   It would never occur to me to use minor trends up or down in my income for a reason why someone should run the most powerful democracy in the world.  I find it petty and appalling that people do think of making this connection.   Yes, I would cancel them if I had subscribed to them, but I never did subscribe to them.

Marcus
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[Robert J. Cordingley]

FWIW and then similarly someone came up with:

  It's those with insight who must make the concessions.

(which sucks).

On "half the country is batshit crazy" - to be generous a big percentage of voters were struggling making a living or making ends meet, raising kids, making payments, etc., before COVID-19. With LOUD voices on both sides I see a messaging saturation effect and voters making a relatively random choice, or voting R because they always did, and this partly because they don't have the time or luxury to figure out anything better. Why else would races be so tight when a landslide should have happened? People continue to not vote in their own interest.

Robert C

On 11/4/20 11:26 AM, [hidden email] wrote:

The fundamental challenge of being a liberal, in the classical sense, is that it obligates you to try to understand the desires and fears of those who disagree with you

 

Boy, Howdy.  You got that one right!

 

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Eric Charles
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:18 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

 

" they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama "

 

I know it's a bit of a tangent... but is that actually true? 

 

I'm not sure I've ever found it overly hard to understand why other people are afraid of things I'm not. Talk to people for a while, poke and prod at their ideas, observe their behavior, etc. It's not instantaneous, but I understand lots of things people were scared about under Obama (some of which happened, some of which would have happened if the Democrats had kept congress, and others of which were never going to happen in a million years). 

 

The fundamental challenge of being a liberal, in the classical sense, is that it obligates you to try to understand the desires and fears of those who disagree with you. The fundamental benefit of being authoritarian is that it comes with no such obligation.  

 

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 1:05 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus,  The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us;  let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  Like a bit of a wild fling.  They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader.  Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on.  That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama.  I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said.  I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush.  "Yes," she went on.  "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in." 

Kerry, DANGEROUS?  My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt.  But she really was quaking with fear..  Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell.  Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/



-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before:  Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

Robert wrote:

<  It's those with insight who must make the concessions. >

That’s certainly a point of view.   

Marcus

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[Roger Critchlow-2]

Oh, go ahead and relax, what can you do about it?

-- rec --

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 1:12 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick,

See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  

But it's too close for relaxation.

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020, 11:05 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus,  The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us;  let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  Like a bit of a wild fling.  They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader.  Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on.  That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama.  I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said.  I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush.  "Yes," she went on.  "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in." 

Kerry, DANGEROUS?  My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt.  But she really was quaking with fear..  Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell.  Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/



-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before:  Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
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[Frank Wimberly-2]

Thanks, Rog.  He's right, Nick.

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020, 12:25 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Oh, go ahead and relax, what can you do about it?

-- rec --

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 1:12 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick,

See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  

But it's too close for relaxation.

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020, 11:05 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus,  The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us;  let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  Like a bit of a wild fling.  They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader.  Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on.  That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama.  I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said.  I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush.  "Yes," she went on.  "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in." 

Kerry, DANGEROUS?  My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt.  But she really was quaking with fear..  Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell.  Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/



-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before:  Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
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[thompnickson2]

Marcus

Well it is hard not to subscribe to someone who is scrupulously caring for
your vacant house or another his dedicatedly married to your  daughter.  

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:55 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Nick wrote:

< I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics
that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly
regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a
politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax
Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and
they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  >

Let me just give you my visceral response:   If one is doing ok -- not
having your neck crushed under the knee of a cop or starving -- then I have
the expectation that a person persuade on the basis on what is good for
everyone, not what is good for them.    I don't care how they make money.
That is their problem.   I did fine under Bush, Obama, and even Trump.   I'm
a lucky one.   It would never occur to me to use minor trends up or down in
my income for a reason why someone should run the most powerful democracy in
the world.  I find it petty and appalling that people do think of making
this connection.   Yes, I would cancel them if I had subscribed to them, but
I never did subscribe to them.

Marcus
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[thompnickson2]

Easy for you to say.  Like telling me to grow a pancreas.

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 1:38 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

 

Thanks, Rog.  He's right, Nick.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

 

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020, 12:25 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Oh, go ahead and relax, what can you do about it?

 

-- rec --

 

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 1:12 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick,

 

See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  

 

But it's too close for relaxation.

 

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

 

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020, 11:05 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus,  The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us;  let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  Like a bit of a wild fling.  They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader.  Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on.  That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama.  I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said.  I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush.  "Yes," she went on.  "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in." 

Kerry, DANGEROUS?  My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt.  But she really was quaking with fear..  Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell.  Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/



-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before:  Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
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[Marcus G. Daniels]

<Marcus,  The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us;  let's try crazy for 4 more years." >

It got us to be the largest economy, democracy, and military on earth.    Where like, everyone wanted to come and live the dream.

How about, just for shits and grins, we give their kid a loaded weapon to play with?   Just to see what happens, you know.    Could be interesting?

I think I'm not being a "classical liberal".  Oops.

Marcus
 
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[gepr]

I still think it's the projection/reduction from high dimensions to low that's the problem. While I largely agree that it's batshit crazy to, e.g. for Howie to run for President given the fate of every Green Party objective will suffer dramatically under Trump, it's still an overzealous and irreversible compression. (It's not quite the same to for Jo, though, because under Biden, many Libertarian objectives will be promoted.) The only answer is to change the projection/reduction algorithm, which includes changing Senate, Electoral College, and SCOTUS representation as well as solutions to Gerrymandering, statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, etc. And most of all, something like ranked-choice voting.

On 11/4/20 10:58 AM, Robert J. Cordingley wrote:

> FWIW and then similarly someone came up with:
>
>   /*It's those with insight who must make the concessions*/.
>
> (which sucks).
>
> On "half the country is batshit crazy" - to be generous a big percentage of voters were struggling making a living or making ends meet, raising kids, making payments, etc., before COVID-19. With LOUD voices on both sides I see a messaging saturation effect and voters making a relatively random choice, or voting R because they always did, and this partly because they don't have the time or luxury to figure out anything better. Why else would races be so tight when a landslide should have happened? People continue to not vote in their own interest.
>
> Robert C
>
> On 11/4/20 11:26 AM, [hidden email] wrote:
>>
>> The fundamental challenge of being a liberal, in the classical sense, is that it obligates you to try to understand the desires and fears of those who disagree with you

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[Steve Smith]

I appreciate this point of view.  In 2016 it seems like there was a lot
of rhetoric about "vote in your own best self-interest" as a way to try
to increase turnout or focus on why any individual should take voting
seriously.

Working at LANL for 27 years I heard *way* too many people there voting
for War Hawks because it was "good for (nuclear weapons) interest" which
was good for the lab's/county's budget... etc.   

I've never voted for my specific self-interest (supporting school bonds
because my kids were of school age or against them because I had none or
they were done with that) but with an idea toward a larger self-interest
of "what kind of world do I want to live in?"...   which has progressed
with age from one where perhaps there was a lot of scrappy scrapping
going on where I could "get ahead" to one where "as few people are under
acute stress and misery as possible such that everyone (human and
non-human everyones) rises to be their best selves".   I know this is
very Pollyanna at some level...   But I so much prefer to ignore my
baser instincts of "greed and fear" in deference to something a little
more "enlightened".  

I have always been appalled by the admonition "If you are not liberal
while young and conservative when old, there is something wrong with
you".   I refactored it to "idealistic while young and practical when
old".   My *practicality* says that my life is improved by the lives of
my family, friends, neighbors, and beyond being improved, and as Marcus
reflects here, that works mainly/only/best for those of us NOT living
under dire threat of privation of abuse, but I would claim that the bulk
of that "threat" is an illusion in the first world.   We all have spare
capacity to "rise above" if we choose to.

- Steve

On 11/4/20 11:54 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

> Nick wrote:
>
> < I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  >
>
> Let me just give you my visceral response:   If one is doing ok -- not having your neck crushed under the knee of a cop or starving -- then I have the expectation that a person persuade on the basis on what is good for everyone, not what is good for them.    I don't care how they make money.   That is their problem.   I did fine under Bush, Obama, and even Trump.   I'm a lucky one.   It would never occur to me to use minor trends up or down in my income for a reason why someone should run the most powerful democracy in the world.  I find it petty and appalling that people do think of making this connection.   Yes, I would cancel them if I had subscribed to them, but I never did subscribe to them.
>
> Marcus
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[Gary Schiltz-4]

The version I have heard is "If you aren't liberal when you're young, you don't have a heart. If you aren't conservative when you're old, you don't have a brain."

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 4:16 PM Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

I appreciate this point of view.  In 2016 it seems like there was a lot
of rhetoric about "vote in your own best self-interest" as a way to try
to increase turnout or focus on why any individual should take voting
seriously.

Working at LANL for 27 years I heard *way* too many people there voting
for War Hawks because it was "good for (nuclear weapons) interest" which
was good for the lab's/county's budget... etc.   

I've never voted for my specific self-interest (supporting school bonds
because my kids were of school age or against them because I had none or
they were done with that) but with an idea toward a larger self-interest
of "what kind of world do I want to live in?"...   which has progressed
with age from one where perhaps there was a lot of scrappy scrapping
going on where I could "get ahead" to one where "as few people are under
acute stress and misery as possible such that everyone (human and
non-human everyones) rises to be their best selves".   I know this is
very Pollyanna at some level...   But I so much prefer to ignore my
baser instincts of "greed and fear" in deference to something a little
more "enlightened".  

I have always been appalled by the admonition "If you are not liberal
while young and conservative when old, there is something wrong with
you".   I refactored it to "idealistic while young and practical when
old".   My *practicality* says that my life is improved by the lives of
my family, friends, neighbors, and beyond being improved, and as Marcus
reflects here, that works mainly/only/best for those of us NOT living
under dire threat of privation of abuse, but I would claim that the bulk
of that "threat" is an illusion in the first world.   We all have spare
capacity to "rise above" if we choose to.

- Steve

On 11/4/20 11:54 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Nick wrote:
>
> < I know two trump supporters quite well.  Mind you, we don't talk politics that much.  Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community.  Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts.  I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun.  >
>
> Let me just give you my visceral response:   If one is doing ok -- not having your neck crushed under the knee of a cop or starving -- then I have the expectation that a person persuade on the basis on what is good for everyone, not what is good for them.    I don't care how they make money.   That is their problem.   I did fine under Bush, Obama, and even Trump.   I'm a lucky one.   It would never occur to me to use minor trends up or down in my income for a reason why someone should run the most powerful democracy in the world.  I find it petty and appalling that people do think of making this connection.   Yes, I would cancel them if I had subscribed to them, but I never did subscribe to them.
>
> Marcus
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[Jochen Fromm-5]

Both cnn.com and foxnews.com report Biden will win Michigan and Wisconsin, and if he wins Arizona and Nevada too where he leads, he has 270 electoral votes. This means it looks good for Biden! All here hope that Joe wins.

-J.

-------- Original message --------

From: uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email]>

Date: 11/4/20 19:18 (GMT+01:00)

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

One thing that confuses me is Trump being attributed 267 vs 268 EVs. But I suppose it could be Maine, with it's split representation:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-04-20/h_f5ca6d24c85ac45e193bf0b1c9b1a2f6


On 11/4/20 10:12 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Nick,
>
> See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  
>
[...]
>     Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.
>
>     227+16+10+11+6 = 270
>     213+3+15+20+16 = 267

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[Eric Charles-2]

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 5:31 PM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Both cnn.com and foxnews.com report Biden will win Michigan and Wisconsin, and if he wins Arizona and Nevada too where he leads, he has 270 electoral votes. This means it looks good for Biden! All here hope that Joe wins.

-J.

-------- Original message --------

From: uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email]>

Date: 11/4/20 19:18 (GMT+01:00)

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

One thing that confuses me is Trump being attributed 267 vs 268 EVs. But I suppose it could be Maine, with it's split representation:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-04-20/h_f5ca6d24c85ac45e193bf0b1c9b1a2f6


On 11/4/20 10:12 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Nick,
>
> See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  
>
[...]
>     Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.
>
>     227+16+10+11+6 = 270
>     213+3+15+20+16 = 267

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[Robert J. Cordingley]

NYT Nicholas Kristof ended his OpEd this morning with a paragraph that summarized my feeling entirely:

"So as I fret about Trump’s efforts to do Russia’s work and delegitimize this election, I also keep wrestling with this question: How is it that so many millions of Americans watched Trump for four years, suffered the pain of his bungling of Covid-19, listened to his stream of lies, observed his attacks on American institutions — and then voted for him in greater numbers than before?"

Last count per NYT, there have been 68,644,941 votes (47.8%) this morning for Trump. So many voters, that apparently don't see {choose your favorite crisis} as a key issue either, it boggles my mind. What have those movements done wrong? If I didn't understand how difficult it is to steal an election (detailed in another NYT oped today), I might even say there was something fishy.

Suggestions?

Robert C

On 11/4/20 5:59 PM, Eric Charles wrote:

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 5:31 PM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Both cnn.com and foxnews.com report Biden will win Michigan and Wisconsin, and if he wins Arizona and Nevada too where he leads, he has 270 electoral votes. This means it looks good for Biden! All here hope that Joe wins.

-J.

-------- Original message --------

From: uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email]>

Date: 11/4/20 19:18 (GMT+01:00)

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

One thing that confuses me is Trump being attributed 267 vs 268 EVs. But I suppose it could be Maine, with it's split representation:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-04-20/h_f5ca6d24c85ac45e193bf0b1c9b1a2f6


On 11/4/20 10:12 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Nick,
>
> See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  
>
[...]
>     Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.
>
>     227+16+10+11+6 = 270
>     213+3+15+20+16 = 267

--
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[Marcus G. Daniels]

At some level I think we all recognize that the United States has been a predatory nation.   For centuries, the influential in this country arranged to take the things they wanted, even people.    We recognize that we have a better lifestyle than people elsewhere in the world.   Trump releases the shame that might cause us to consider repairing the harm we have done or at least work harder to justify our special status.   No, it is enough to join Team Trump and call those people names.   My dog would have the instinct to herd them, and she would be right.

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Robert J. Cordingley
Sent: Thursday, November 5, 2020 11:08 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

 

NYT Nicholas Kristof ended his OpEd this morning with a paragraph that summarized my feeling entirely:

"So as I fret about Trump’s efforts to do Russia’s work and delegitimize this election, I also keep wrestling with this question: How is it that so many millions of Americans watched Trump for four years, suffered the pain of his bungling of Covid-19, listened to his stream of lies, observed his attacks on American institutions — and then voted for him in greater numbers than before?"

Last count per NYT, there have been 68,644,941 votes (47.8%) this morning for Trump. So many voters, that apparently don't see {choose your favorite crisis} as a key issue either, it boggles my mind. What have those movements done wrong? If I didn't understand how difficult it is to steal an election (detailed in another NYT oped today), I might even say there was something fishy.

Suggestions?

Robert C

On 11/4/20 5:59 PM, Eric Charles wrote:

 

 

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 5:31 PM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Both cnn.com and foxnews.com report Biden will win Michigan and Wisconsin, and if he wins Arizona and Nevada too where he leads, he has 270 electoral votes. This means it looks good for Biden! All here hope that Joe wins.

 

-J.

 

-------- Original message --------

From: uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email]>

Date: 11/4/20 19:18 (GMT+01:00)

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

 

One thing that confuses me is Trump being attributed 267 vs 268 EVs. But I suppose it could be Maine, with it's split representation:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-04-20/h_f5ca6d24c85ac45e193bf0b1c9b1a2f6


On 11/4/20 10:12 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Nick,
>
> See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  
>
[...]
>     Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.
>
>     227+16+10+11+6 = 270
>     213+3+15+20+16 = 267

--
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Cirrillian 

Web Design & Development

Santa Fe, NM

http://cirrillian.com

281-989-6272 (cell)

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[Frank Wimberly-2]

A large percentage of the variance between "us" and "them" seems to be living in a city vs living in the country.  Not all but a lot.

On Thu, Nov 5, 2020, 12:59 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

At some level I think we all recognize that the United States has been a predatory nation.   For centuries, the influential in this country arranged to take the things they wanted, even people.    We recognize that we have a better lifestyle than people elsewhere in the world.   Trump releases the shame that might cause us to consider repairing the harm we have done or at least work harder to justify our special status.   No, it is enough to join Team Trump and call those people names.   My dog would have the instinct to herd them, and she would be right.

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Robert J. Cordingley
Sent: Thursday, November 5, 2020 11:08 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

 

NYT Nicholas Kristof ended his OpEd this morning with a paragraph that summarized my feeling entirely:

"So as I fret about Trump’s efforts to do Russia’s work and delegitimize this election, I also keep wrestling with this question: How is it that so many millions of Americans watched Trump for four years, suffered the pain of his bungling of Covid-19, listened to his stream of lies, observed his attacks on American institutions — and then voted for him in greater numbers than before?"

Last count per NYT, there have been 68,644,941 votes (47.8%) this morning for Trump. So many voters, that apparently don't see {choose your favorite crisis} as a key issue either, it boggles my mind. What have those movements done wrong? If I didn't understand how difficult it is to steal an election (detailed in another NYT oped today), I might even say there was something fishy.

Suggestions?

Robert C

On 11/4/20 5:59 PM, Eric Charles wrote:

 

 

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 5:31 PM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Both cnn.com and foxnews.com report Biden will win Michigan and Wisconsin, and if he wins Arizona and Nevada too where he leads, he has 270 electoral votes. This means it looks good for Biden! All here hope that Joe wins.

 

-J.

 

-------- Original message --------

From: uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email]>

Date: 11/4/20 19:18 (GMT+01:00)

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

 

One thing that confuses me is Trump being attributed 267 vs 268 EVs. But I suppose it could be Maine, with it's split representation:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-04-20/h_f5ca6d24c85ac45e193bf0b1c9b1a2f6


On 11/4/20 10:12 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Nick,
>
> See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate.  Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes.  If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.  
>
[...]
>     Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.
>
>     227+16+10+11+6 = 270
>     213+3+15+20+16 = 267

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Cirrillian 

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Santa Fe, NM

http://cirrillian.com

281-989-6272 (cell)

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