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election eve

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Prof David West

election eve

Frank put his prediction on the list, so I guess it is OK to add mine.

Last time I was 100% certain of my predictions. This time between 60-75 percent certain.

Trump will win by roughly the same electoral college numbers as last time, with minor changes, e.g. swapping Wisconsin for Minnesota. (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

This result will be apparent Nov. 3-5. Late ballots will be overwhelmingly for Biden and might even threaten the electoral college result. Lawsuits in abundance.

Ultimately Trump will win. Riots in the street. The leftist "Protect The Vote" movement (Trump-ers have one similarly or identically named) already has plans in place for "peaceful" protests — starting Nov. 4 in NY and DC, so they must share my belief to some degree — and are actively working with old fart 60's leftists to define/decide necessary actions when the demonstrations prove insufficient. (I was actually approached by an old colleague from the Weather Underground so ascertain my interest in enlisting.)

davew

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: election eve

I'm cautiously optimistic that Biden will win early. Dave could be right, in which case, yeah, who cares what happens.
The most exciting thing that could happen would be that Biden takes Texas.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] election eve

Frank put his prediction on the list, so I guess it is OK to add mine.

Last time I was 100% certain of my predictions. This time between 60-75 percent certain.

Trump will win by roughly the same electoral college numbers as last time, with minor changes, e.g. swapping Wisconsin for Minnesota. (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

This result will be apparent Nov. 3-5. Late ballots will be overwhelmingly for Biden and might even threaten the electoral college result. Lawsuits in abundance.

Ultimately Trump will win. Riots in the street. The leftist "Protect The Vote" movement (Trump-ers have one similarly or identically named) already has plans in place for "peaceful" protests — starting Nov. 4 in NY and DC, so they must share my belief to some degree — and are actively working with old fart 60's leftists to define/decide necessary actions when the demonstrations prove insufficient. (I was actually approached by an old colleague from the Weather Underground so ascertain my interest in enlisting.)

davew

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gepr

Re: election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

thompnickson2

Re: election eve

I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Roger Critchlow-2

Re: election eve

https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: election eve

Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office. In every case that I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts. Trump et al seem desperate.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 2:24 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Barry MacKichan

Re: election eve

I’m not sure that Trump believes that what he is doing will affect the vote count.

My theory is that he might hope for that, but the other purpose is to create a grievance. Trump thrives on grievances and having a few more out there will give his post-presidential career (right-wing broadcasting??) a boost.

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 16:42, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office. In every case that I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts. Trump et al seem desperate.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 2:24 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Barry MacKichan

Re: election eve

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

I’m not sure that Trump believes there is any chance the courts will help stop counting the vote.

The other purpose for what he is doing is to create another grievance. Trump thrives on grievances, and a few more will only help his post-presidential career (right-wing broadcasting??).

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 16:42, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office. In every case that I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts. Trump et al seem desperate.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 2:24 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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thompnickson2

Re: election eve

Frank,

I am just waking up. (Yeah, I know.) I see that biden has to carry all the states where he is leading and at least one in which he is not. Can you tell me the basis for your cautious optimism? I need that right now.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:47 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

I’m not sure that Trump believes there is any chance the courts will help stop counting the vote.

The other purpose for what he is doing is to create another grievance. Trump thrives on grievances, and a few more will only help his post-presidential career (right-wing broadcasting??).

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 16:42, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office. In every case that I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts. Trump et al seem desperate.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 2:24 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Gary Schiltz-4

Re: election eve

Nick, I was rather wondering the same thing myself. Frank, please toss us a thread-thin lifeline to help buoy the spirits of us bleeding heart liberals haha. Is your optimism somehow based on the number of uncounted mail-in ballots?

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 11:33 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Frank,

I am just waking up. (Yeah, I know.) I see that biden has to carry all the states where he is leading and at least one in which he is not. Can you tell me the basis for your cautious optimism? I need that right now.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:47 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

I’m not sure that Trump believes there is any chance the courts will help stop counting the vote.
The other purpose for what he is doing is to create another grievance. Trump thrives on grievances, and a few more will only help his post-presidential career (right-wing broadcasting??).
—Barry
On 2 Nov 2020, at 16:42, Frank Wimberly wrote:
Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office. In every case that I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts. Trump et al seem desperate.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 2:24 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: election eve

Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 8:37 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 11:33 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Frank,

I am just waking up. (Yeah, I know.) I see that biden has to carry all the states where he is leading and at least one in which he is not. Can you tell me the basis for your cautious optimism? I need that right now.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:47 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

I’m not sure that Trump believes there is any chance the courts will help stop counting the vote.

The other purpose for what he is doing is to create another grievance. Trump thrives on grievances, and a few more will only help his post-presidential career (right-wing broadcasting??).

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 16:42, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office. In every case that I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts. Trump et al seem desperate.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 2:24 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
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gepr

Re: election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before: Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Merle Lefkoff-2

Re: election eve

In reply to this post by gepr

From the Washington Post

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Postal Service turned down a federal judge’s order late Tuesday afternoon to sweep mail processing facilities serving 15 states, saying instead it would stick to its own inspection schedule. The judge’s order came after the agency disclosed that more than 300,000 ballots nationwide could not be traced.

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 9:22 AM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

Gary Schiltz-4

Re: election eve

In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels

What source indicated those numbers?

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 12:09 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 8:37 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Nick, I was rather wondering the same thing myself. Frank, please toss us a thread-thin lifeline to help buoy the spirits of us bleeding heart liberals haha. Is your optimism somehow based on the number of uncounted mail-in ballots?

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 11:33 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Frank,

I am just waking up. (Yeah, I know.) I see that biden has to carry all the states where he is leading and at least one in which he is not. Can you tell me the basis for your cautious optimism? I need that right now.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:47 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

I’m not sure that Trump believes there is any chance the courts will help stop counting the vote.

The other purpose for what he is doing is to create another grievance. Trump thrives on grievances, and a few more will only help his post-presidential career (right-wing broadcasting??).

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 16:42, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office. In every case that I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts. Trump et al seem desperate.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 2:24 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: election eve

It is just the current evolving returns in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Not a done deal by any means. Yes, I am trading in my optimism for razor wire and surveillance cameras.

Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 4, 2020, at 9:40 AM, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:

What source indicated those numbers?

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 12:09 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 8:37 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Nick, I was rather wondering the same thing myself. Frank, please toss us a thread-thin lifeline to help buoy the spirits of us bleeding heart liberals haha. Is your optimism somehow based on the number of uncounted mail-in ballots?

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 11:33 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Frank,

I am just waking up. (Yeah, I know.) I see that biden has to carry all the states where he is leading and at least one in which he is not. Can you tell me the basis for your cautious optimism? I need that right now.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:47 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

I’m not sure that Trump believes there is any chance the courts will help stop counting the vote.

The other purpose for what he is doing is to create another grievance. Trump thrives on grievances, and a few more will only help his post-presidential career (right-wing broadcasting??).

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 16:42, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office. In every case that I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts. Trump et al seem desperate.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 2:24 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

I dunno. What Is happening in MN.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: [hidden email]
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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gepr

Re: election eve

In reply to this post by Gary Schiltz-4

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html

On 11/4/20 9:40 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
> What source indicated those numbers?

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

thompnickson2

Re: election eve

In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus, The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us; let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well. Mind you, we don't talk politics that much. Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community. Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts. I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun. Like a bit of a wild fling. They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader. Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on. That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama. I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said. I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush. "Yes," she went on. "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in."

Kerry, DANGEROUS? My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt. But she really was quaking with fear.. Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell. Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before: Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: election eve

Nick,

See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate. Biden may still win either Georgia or Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is likely among the uncounted votes. If any of that happens Biden wins with a margin.

But it's too close for relaxation.

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020, 11:05 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus, The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us; let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well. Mind you, we don't talk politics that much. Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community. Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts. I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun. Like a bit of a wild fling. They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader. Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on. That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama. I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said. I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush. "Yes," she went on. "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in."

Kerry, DANGEROUS? My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt. But she really was quaking with fear.. Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell. Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before: Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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thompnickson2

Re: election eve

But we didn’t get the senate, right?

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:12 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Nick,

But it's too close for relaxation.

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 4, 2020, 11:05 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you want to live in the bubble for a few more hours, try

https://abc.com/watch-live/abc-news

Marcus, The message I am getting from those folks is something like: "We tried rationality for 50 years and look where it got us; let's try crazy for 4 more years."

I know two trump supporters quite well. Mind you, we don't talk politics that much. Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a politically diverse community. Both [thought they] saw gains from the Tax Cuts. I think both think the economic policies have been good for them and they find the crazy stuff kinda fun. Like a bit of a wild fling. They certainly don't take those things any more seriously than I took Clinton, with whatsername under the Resolute Desk, while he was negotiating with the Majority Leader. Tsk Tsk, I say and them move on. That's what they do, and they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could understand why they were scared by Obama. I once called one of my relatives in Texas during the bush/Kerry election, because she had been born in Massachusetts and I thought she could help me understand. "I think that man is dangerous," she said. I agreed, thinking she was talking about Bush. "Yes," she went on. "No telling what he will do if he and the democrats get in."

Kerry, DANGEROUS? My god that man was scared of getting tomato sauce on his polo shirt. But she really was quaking with fear.. Just like I am now.

The one I really am scared of is McConnell. Hitler got in because the cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look how that turned out.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before: Almost half the country is batshit crazy.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11) toward Biden.

227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267

I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not. Regardless of which value the artificially binary outcome lands on, it's the closeness of it that causes the problems.

On 11/4/20 9:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take Pennsylvania.

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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