Not good for the theory. Yes, Tom. That theory. Nick ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx (14K) Download Attachment |
Exponential with increasing derivative. --- Frank C. Wimberly 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, Apr 1, 2020, 9:01 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
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As it approaches the peak the derivative will decrease. We're not there yet. --- Frank C. Wimberly 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, Apr 1, 2020, 9:33 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:
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In reply to this post by thompnickson2
It is kind of interesting that the religious fundamentalists seem to be in denial with regard Covid. I would have expected more "It's God's wrath" or "The end is nigh" from that sector. Even if we hit the 2 million dead in the US, and 5% of the population immune, that leaves 95% at severe risk until such time as a vaccine is developed. Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a major collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown. There are 30,000 known coronaviruses in the animal population just waiting for the opportune moment to jump species. I knew there was a way to solve the climate problem. davew On Wed, Apr 1, 2020, at 9:01 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
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I've seen a few articles with titles like "Coronavirus is the death of Neoliberalism" or "... Capitalism" and whatnot. I'm skeptical. As much as I reject analogies between societal upheaval/collapse and phases of matter, I do believe in inflection points. My guess is that authoritarianism is what lies ahead of us on the other side of this inflection. We were already trending that way and I bet we'll continue. This inflection looks more like a minor rate change than anything fundamental.
This article was hopeful: The coronavirus crisis has exposed the ugly truth about celebrity culture and capitalism https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/the-coronavirus-crisis-has-exposed-the-ugly-truth-about-celebrity-culture-and-capitalism There's nothing more disgusting to me than our celebrity fetish. But this article was pessimistic: Invisible man? Amid pandemic, Biden sidelined by omnipresent Trump https://news.yahoo.com/invisible-man-amid-pandemic-biden-sidelined-omnipresent-trump-082411045.html My faith in my fellow humans' *tastes* is always crushed. Everyone tends to flock to the least common denominator. (My primary objection to instant-runoff/ranked-choice voting and pop music, as well as overly reductive rating systems like Rotten Tomatoes, etc.) The "wisdom of crowds" is an oxymoron. >8^D On 4/2/20 8:05 AM, Prof David West wrote: > Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a major collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown. -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
|
In reply to this post by Prof David West
Dave writes:
< There are 30,000 known coronaviruses in the animal population just waiting for the opportune moment to jump species.
I knew there was a way to solve the climate problem. >
I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism problem, though.
Marcus
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Prof David West <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, April 2, 2020 9:05 AM To: [hidden email] <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx It is kind of interesting that the religious fundamentalists seem to be in denial with regard Covid. I would have expected more "It's God's wrath" or "The end is nigh" from that sector.
Even if we hit the 2 million dead in the US, and 5% of the population immune, that leaves 95% at severe risk until such time as a vaccine is developed.
Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a major collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown.
There are 30,000 known coronaviruses in the animal population just waiting for the opportune moment to jump species.
I knew there was a way to solve the climate problem.
davew
On Wed, Apr 1, 2020, at 9:01 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
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I think she does, indirectly. Homeostasis might be easier to maintain with a diversity of strategies preserved in the milieu. Authoritarianism is a monotonic forcing structure. As long as there's a vibrant ecology of revolutionaries throbbing underneath, then authoritarianism is A-OK. But if it squashes the diversity required to find new solutions over time, then it's not.
On 4/2/20 9:09 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism problem, though. -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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In reply to this post by thompnickson2
Do you have a Zoom meeting tomorrow again? -J. -------- Original message -------- From: [hidden email] Date: 4/2/20 05:01 (GMT+01:00) To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <[hidden email]> Subject: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx Not good for the theory. Yes, Tom. That theory. Nick ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
In reply to this post by gepr
FRIAMMERS: "the government cant print money fast enough to save the economy" I have to say, this made me wonder just exactly what an "economy" is. Imagine us like so many well fed rats in our separate cages. Food and water is brought to us daily by Amazon. Municipal Services cart the waste a way. We exercise in our wheels. Our mates and young are by our sides. We can see and smell our neighbors through the wires but we cannot touch. Life is perfect! But there is no economy? What's an economy? See attached, especially page 2. N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Thursday, April 2, 2020 9:43 AM To: FriAM <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx I've seen a few articles with titles like "Coronavirus is the death of Neoliberalism" or "... Capitalism" and whatnot. I'm skeptical. As much as I reject analogies between societal upheaval/collapse and phases of matter, I do believe in inflection points. My guess is that authoritarianism is what lies ahead of us on the other side of this inflection. We were already trending that way and I bet we'll continue. This inflection looks more like a minor rate change than anything fundamental. This article was hopeful: The coronavirus crisis has exposed the ugly truth about celebrity culture and capitalism https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/the-coronavirus-crisis-has-exposed-the-ugly-truth-about-celebrity-culture-and-capitalism There's nothing more disgusting to me than our celebrity fetish. But this article was pessimistic: Invisible man? Amid pandemic, Biden sidelined by omnipresent Trump https://news.yahoo.com/invisible-man-amid-pandemic-biden-sidelined-omnipresent-trump-082411045.html My faith in my fellow humans' *tastes* is always crushed. Everyone tends to flock to the least common denominator. (My primary objection to instant-runoff/ranked-choice voting and pop music, as well as overly reductive rating systems like Rotten Tomatoes, etc.) The "wisdom of crowds" is an oxymoron. >8^D On 4/2/20 8:05 AM, Prof David West wrote: > Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a major collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown. -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
On Thu, Apr 2, 2020 at 10:50 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:
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In reply to this post by gepr
My observation is that from Dickens' "best of times, worst of
times". I think as an inflection/bifurcation point, many
things are possible. "sensitive dependence on initial
conditions". In the spirit of "creative visualization" and
"self-fulfilling prophecies" there are risks and opportunities
around being too paranoid or too pollyanna and opportunities
around being creatively positive and thoughtfully wary. I think
there is a quad-chart in there somewhere? "Svaha" is a word for "the time between the lightning and the
thunder... when all things are possible". (alternately attributed
to Native Americans, to old Norse, etc... but apparently coined by
this book: https://www.amazon.com/Svaha-Charles-Lint/dp/0312876505
in the 90s... And not to be confused with the much older Sanskrit svāhā which feels
entertainingly relevant as well: On 4/2/20 9:42 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
I've seen a few articles with titles like "Coronavirus is the death of Neoliberalism" or "... Capitalism" and whatnot. I'm skeptical. As much as I reject analogies between societal upheaval/collapse and phases of matter, I do believe in inflection points. My guess is that authoritarianism is what lies ahead of us on the other side of this inflection. We were already trending that way and I bet we'll continue. This inflection looks more like a minor rate change than anything fundamental. This article was hopeful: The coronavirus crisis has exposed the ugly truth about celebrity culture and capitalism https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/the-coronavirus-crisis-has-exposed-the-ugly-truth-about-celebrity-culture-and-capitalism There's nothing more disgusting to me than our celebrity fetish. But this article was pessimistic: Invisible man? Amid pandemic, Biden sidelined by omnipresent Trump https://news.yahoo.com/invisible-man-amid-pandemic-biden-sidelined-omnipresent-trump-082411045.html My faith in my fellow humans' *tastes* is always crushed. Everyone tends to flock to the least common denominator. (My primary objection to instant-runoff/ranked-choice voting and pop music, as well as overly reductive rating systems like Rotten Tomatoes, etc.) The "wisdom of crowds" is an oxymoron. >8^D On 4/2/20 8:05 AM, Prof David West wrote:Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a major collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
On 4/2/20 10:09 AM, Marcus Daniels
wrote:
In fact, it may have been the very fact of *freeing* ourselves
from the strictest authoritarianism that allowed us to "bloom"
(think algae bloom, not field of flowers) the way we have in the
last 100 years. Would Communist China and Socialist USSR have
"bloomed" the way the Consumer Capitalist psuedo Democratic "West"
did?
We are now suffering under our own success in many ways. The Climate Crisis (IMO) is a disease of ( a certain kind of ) affluence, not poverty or scarcity.
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In reply to this post by gepr
This just in via Guerin from LocoTopia: Comparative Resilience: 8 Principles for Post-COVID Reconstruction http://michaelhshuman.com/?p=456
On 4/2/20 10:20 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
I think she does, indirectly. Homeostasis might be easier to maintain with a diversity of strategies preserved in the milieu. Authoritarianism is a monotonic forcing structure. As long as there's a vibrant ecology of revolutionaries throbbing underneath, then authoritarianism is A-OK. But if it squashes the diversity required to find new solutions over time, then it's not. On 4/2/20 9:09 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism problem, though. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
In reply to this post by thompnickson2
Here's what's in the GDoc:
https://zoom.us/j/255049879 https://bit.ly/virtualfriam Maybe one of our Morlocks could put that in the overly long suffix to every. single. post. that. nobody. ever. deletes. when they hit reply? 8^) On 4/2/20 9:31 AM, Jochen Fromm wrote: > Do you have a Zoom meeting tomorrow again? > [...] > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
|
In reply to this post by gepr
On 4/2/20 10:20 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
I think she does, indirectly. Homeostasis might be easier to maintain with a diversity of strategies preserved in the milieu. Authoritarianism is a monotonic forcing structure. As long as there's a vibrant ecology of revolutionaries throbbing underneath, then authoritarianism is A-OK. But if it squashes the diversity required to find new solutions over time, then it's not. On 4/2/20 9:09 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism problem, though. The current rebalkanisation of the EU (borders stood back up to
limit wandering tourists spreading SARS-CoV-2) is allowing for a
diversity of responses and when this is over (dust settled enough
to read the tea leaves) we will find that diversity of response to
be very helpful compared to say... a one-size-fits-all. We complain that the current free-for-all among governors of states is "a travesty" but truly NOT compared to the travesty if POTUS45 had chosen (been aware enough, able?) to squash it down. We'd all be getting rousted from our shelter-in-place homes to attend Easter Services at a church of our^H^H^H *his* choice. The inner-engineer in all of us may rail at the inefficiency of
these "organic" responses, but in the bottom line, I think they
will be yet more "robust". I (re)submit the alternative to Gaia which is the Medea hypothesis: perhaps no more (or less) absurd as an allegorical referent - Steve ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
In reply to this post by gepr
I'm trying to build a list of parallel or complementary efforts to the
SimTable/RedFish efforts... Once this list gets semi-populated I will share it out here as well. The focus is on groups/teams we might join, collaborate with, obtain data from, etc. this is a pretty broad spec and I may be overwhelmed quickly with trying to organize it, so I welcome anyone with a sharp pencil to offer their own structuring of such resources or join me in editing such a Google Doc. I'm starting with a Doc but will probably move to a Spreadsheet at some point. tx, - Steve On 4/2/20 11:27 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > Here's what's in the GDoc: > > https://zoom.us/j/255049879 > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > > Maybe one of our Morlocks could put that in the overly long suffix to every. single. post. that. nobody. ever. deletes. when they hit reply? 8^) > > On 4/2/20 9:31 AM, Jochen Fromm wrote: >> Do you have a Zoom meeting tomorrow again? >> [...] >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >> ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
In reply to this post by Steve Smith
This re-raises Marcus' contribution to preserving the analogy between phase changes and socio-political upheaval:
On 3/23/20 9:48 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fict.2016.00014/full I haven't had time to answer a question I have through my own homework. So I'll just risk embarrassment and ask it here. Can the sub-models coupled like in the paper be in different phases? Or is the coupling "tight" such that a transition in one sub-system forces a transition everywhere? Carrying on abusing the bad analogy ... if the coupling is loose enough to allow mixed phases, then I'd argue the Medea hypothesis is flawed and composite systems do not work that way. It's not suicide at all, but more like a dynamic immune system, where one part attacks another part, perhaps because of ignorance that the other part is coupled to itself in some way. "Give me back my haaaaaand!" https://youtu.be/-5XAmupw8jo On 4/2/20 10:29 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > I (re)submit the alternative to Gaia which is the Medea hypothesis: > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis > > perhaps no more (or less) absurd as an allegorical referent -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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In reply to this post by Steve Smith
Or a meta Doc with links pointing to Doc w Category Table(s)?
I also like to use Comapping for this sort of thing. Invite sent to you. https://go.comapping.com/comapping.html#mapid=227145 ============================================ Tom Johnson - [hidden email] Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA 505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h) NM Foundation for Open Government Check out It's The People's Data ============================================ On Thu, Apr 2, 2020 at 11:35 AM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote: I'm trying to build a list of parallel or complementary efforts to the ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
It's a shame it depends on Flash. These days, most browsers don't come with it installed, and on the iOS platform, it isn't even available. On Thu, Apr 2, 2020 at 1:16 PM Tom Johnson <[hidden email]> wrote:
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In reply to this post by gepr
Glen writes:
< Can the sub-models coupled like in the paper be in different phases? Or is the coupling "tight" such that a transition in one sub-system forces a transition everywhere? >
One might have a situation like below where the bond strengths between molecules were gradually getting weaker, giving the effect of an increasing temperature. If the logical operations (as described) were in place
of H2O, then the "molecules" would be a bit more complex and retain at least the same relative magnitudes between the bonds, but some of the bonds between the logical operations could be relaxed. At a high level, to your question, the metaphor that comes
to mind is ice cubes in a cup of water.
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, April 2, 2020 11:50 AM To: FriAM <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx This re-raises Marcus' contribution to preserving the analogy between phase changes and socio-political upheaval:
On 3/23/20 9:48 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fict.2016.00014/full I haven't had time to answer a question I have through my own homework. So I'll just risk embarrassment and ask it here. Can the sub-models coupled like in the paper be in different phases? Or is the coupling "tight" such that a transition in one sub-system forces a transition everywhere? Carrying on abusing the bad analogy ... if the coupling is loose enough to allow mixed phases, then I'd argue the Medea hypothesis is flawed and composite systems do not work that way. It's not suicide at all, but more like a dynamic immune system, where one part attacks another part, perhaps because of ignorance that the other part is coupled to itself in some way. "Give me back my haaaaaand!" https://youtu.be/-5XAmupw8jo On 4/2/20 10:29 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > I (re)submit the alternative to Gaia which is the Medea hypothesis: > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis > > perhaps no more (or less) absurd as an allegorical referent -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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