Climate Change
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This is what Donald wrote on Twitter tonight: "In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!" https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/946531657229701120 Only an idiot would ignore climate change. Is he really this stupid? My god.. -J. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Yes. I suspect that climate change, including global warming, would require that locally, in some locations, colder than normal conditions would occur. Frank On Dec 29, 2017 1:23 AM, "Jochen Fromm" <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5
Yes, he’s really that stupid. And is manipulated by people who know better, but whose short-term interests are best served by pretending global climate change is a fiction.
> On Dec 29, 2017, at 12:23 AM, Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote: > > This is what Donald wrote on Twitter tonight: > "In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!" > https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/946531657229701120 > > Only an idiot would ignore climate change. Is he really this stupid? My god.. > > -J. > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5
This is “our” fault. We have failed to articulate and distribute a language that adequately relates changes in probabilities of events with changes in particular events. We say that “harvey” was caused by global warming, but then we bridle when senators carry snowballs into congress. Yes, this is “our” fault. Nick Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm This is what Donald wrote on Twitter tonight: "In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!" Only an idiot would ignore climate change. Is he really this stupid? My god.. -J. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Nick is right. The uneducated (who also vote) do not understand, for example, that climate events will continue to be more intense, if not more frequent. And the ambiguity necessary to nonlinear models causes great confusion. People need certainly and prediction and have been led to believe science will get them there. On Fri, Dec 29, 2017 at 8:13 AM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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I think, too, it is a fundamental issue of education, or lack of it, in the U.S. For example, scientists say, "Well, yes, the global or ocean temperatures are expected to increase 1.8 degrees Centigrade." First, Americas don't understand this centigrade stuff. Second, they think, " Well, if the weatherman says the low tonight will be 46 degrees and it goes up 1.8 degrees and is close to 48, that's no big deal. I can just wear the same sweater or jacket. So what's the problem?" We need to communicate the holistic understanding of the planet and ecosystem. Pictures from space are not, in themselves, sufficient. TJ ============================================ Tom Johnson Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA 505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h) Society of Professional Journalists Check out It's The People's Data On Fri, Dec 29, 2017 at 11:18 AM, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5
He is one of these: The games I enjoy have a zero tollerance pollicy for trolls. The giant jerk kind that just want attention. Generally the community ignores them. Then a Game Assistant bans them. Then that company shows other companies about the problem...etc. So yes. Drumpf is just that slow and a Troll. Stop giving that dude attention! The faster he goes without it, the faster the problems he has caused might be fixed. Trolls feed on attention they get a buzz from it. And that he keeps getting it because people still act surpirsed at the crap that person says or does is a problem. It doesn't matter if it's good or bad. He's a pouty jack ass, troll plain and simple. The sooner he goes as gamers say on perma ignore server wide. Or in this case people on this list, the news etc stop covering every brain fart that does. The faster things might get fixed. That and yes many people deny climate change is a thing. I siimply don't know why. LOL like i've said to many times: I dont like having a gas powered car. I (think) i'd like one that's a mix of solar+electric (for example) as those rock!. I suspect for the most part the Das Uuber Geeken und Der Wendtag Mailen list "get it" lol infact I have seen long wonderfully enthusiastic debates about climate issues, not only did we have some kick ass debates but many of them brought up some bad ass theories! I thought at the time: that is tooo coool! That's because we are geeks, and love to learn all the cool shit this wondefully awesome world has to offer. That Alien robot speeks their language wich is: Geeks bad. Guts are gud, /ignore GeeKDude/Woman meen while the average folk the rest of us Das Uber Geek think: (........; ..................-_- sudo --reboot /user/brain --now [kernel thread panic conditions encountered!] /usr/brain brain rebooting initiating int/sed /user/brain kill thread process id0... a process that takes surpirisingly little time for something with such advaced firmware and frequent updates.I am astounded it doesn't crash more or take longer to defrag than 10-12hours. Alas it's harddrive has frequent errors and, the user is a oft a smart ass.) and wonder if we heard right or read right and in my case sometime after the verbal commands bypass the mouth+brain firewall I think from a bad ipf configuration. And sometime something like : What the ****? comes out of the audiodevice well within microphone range of other users. I don't know whhy Drumpf+ the 10-15% that follow Drumpf ignore everything including looking outside their fucking door and saying that's...not...normal to have 55-60F/ rughly 16C heat at 1030A in the morning of a certain Dismber then look down and note how stupdenously pretty the sky is breath in... I can only conclude because that turdflower is simply a troll. Then move on and ignore. That or just a bot. They are welcome to ignore the facts such as they are. The rest of us will move on. IBesides do you reely want to work yourself up over this stuff? On Fri, Dec 29, 2017 at 1:23 AM, Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Nick Thompson
Maybe it is the effect of a "confirmation bias". He sees somewhere on Fox News that the weather will be really cold, and thinks this confirms his theory that global warming is a hoax - although we all know that climate and weather are different, and that climate change is real. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias -J. -------- Original message -------- From: Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> Date: 12/29/17 16:13 (GMT+01:00) To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change This is “our” fault. We have failed to articulate and distribute a language that adequately relates changes in probabilities of events with changes in particular events. We say that “harvey” was caused by global warming, but then we bridle when senators carry snowballs into congress. Yes, this is “our” fault. Nick Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm This is what Donald wrote on Twitter tonight: "In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!" Only an idiot would ignore climate change. Is he really this stupid? My god.. -J. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Gillian Densmore
You called it, Gillian. Trump and his ilk (Milo, Spencer, etc.) thrive on their ability to invoke. Beliefs and knowledge take a back seat, which is why they are so capable of munging the facts and changing their tune when confronted.
So I have to disagree fundamentally with Nick, Merle, Tom, Frank, and Pamela. He's not "that stupid". In fact, that question is irrelevant. He simply knows how to push the buttons, especially of the well-intentioned people who care about beliefs and knowledge. On 12/29/2017 09:40 AM, Gillian Densmore wrote: > He is one of these: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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In reply to this post by Tom Johnson
Tom writes:
"I think, too, it is a fundamental issue of education, or lack of it, in the U.S."
Over the holidays, I ran into an individual who had the benefit of educated relatives all through their childhood and nonetheless has persisted with the same reactionary views for the last 30 years. An argument with him, observed with another party this
time, goes about how it would have when he was 15. (It is not an argument.) He did not go to college, but it would have been wasted on him anyway. Remarkably, his son has figured out how to get accepted at a university and how to pay for it all while the
father has pooh-poohed the whole thing. I knew a lot of people like the father growing up. It is not just that they are uneducated, it is that they are incurious, kind of mean, and stupid. Get a group of them together and they reinforce each other.
But I also know individuals who have had modest means their entire life and are not this way at all. The best thing to do IMO is to put the incurious ones on an exhausting physical job like coal mining or construction so they can't cause trouble, then augmented
by easy access to their worst vice at the end of the day. I think what we have here is a personality disorder shared by some especially dull individuals. It must be a universal problem, but perhaps the relative wealth of the U.S. midwest vs. its population
density has enabled it to proliferate more than in other countries.
Marcus
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Tom Johnson <[hidden email]>
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 9:50:30 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change I think, too, it is a fundamental issue of education, or lack of it, in the U.S. For example, scientists say, "Well, yes, the global or ocean temperatures are expected to increase 1.8 degrees Centigrade." First, Americas don't understand this
centigrade stuff. Second, they think, " Well, if the weatherman says the low tonight will be 46 degrees and it goes up 1.8 degrees and is close to 48, that's no big deal. I can just wear the same sweater or jacket. So what's the problem?"
We need to communicate the holistic understanding of the planet and ecosystem. Pictures from space are not, in themselves, sufficient.
TJ
============================================ Tom Johnson Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA 505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h) Society of Professional Journalists Check out It's The People's Data On Fri, Dec 29, 2017 at 11:18 AM, Merle Lefkoff
<[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by gepr
And BTW, I don't merely mean "provoke", in a vapid way. I still believe Trump and people like him, consciously or not, speak in ways such that the audience or other discussants will fill in the blanks, themselves (as Lakoff pointed out). Similar techniques are "dog whistling" and poetry. This is one of the reasons so many people prefer one-on-one meetings over groups. The larger the group, the more difficult it is to rely on this sort of invocation. I posit that it's also the cause of the dissonance long-term friends of Trump have experienced since the start of his campaign. One-on-one, Trump probably seems like a pretty nice person ... because his comm. style is an adaptive invocation.
I had a boss like this once. I consistently irritated him by taking notes and bringing up topics we'd previously discussed in private, at staff meetings. He hated it. But the staff loved it. I'm a bit torn whether or not "evocation" is a more fitting concept, though. But evocation seems to imply a shared understanding between the parties. Invocation seems to allow cautionary tales ... like don't play with black magick and such ... the demon might escape the pentagram you drew on the floor. On 12/29/2017 09:49 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > You called it, Gillian. Trump and his ilk (Milo, Spencer, etc.) thrive on their ability to invoke. Beliefs and knowledge take a back seat, which is why they are so capable of munging the facts and changing their tune when confronted. > > So I have to disagree fundamentally with Nick, Merle, Tom, Frank, and Pamela. He's not "that stupid". In fact, that question is irrelevant. He simply knows how to push the buttons, especially of the well-intentioned people who care about beliefs and knowledge. > > On 12/29/2017 09:40 AM, Gillian Densmore wrote: >> He is one of these: >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll > -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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In reply to this post by gepr
I agree with both Glen and Jillian,
this is more on the right tack. It’s not about stupidity. It’s about a kind of character degeneracy further down, and a certain kind of vileness that becomes possible at that level. I would add one thing to Jill’s and Glen’s emphasis (attention trolling), which is that this is about thugs. That goes beyond the executive to an increasingly purified right wing since Gingrich’s tactics in (the 80s?). It is not that they don’t know “the truth” of a matter; it is an active war on the existence of truth as a public good, or of anything else that impedes the exercise of thug power. Nick has articulated this cleanly in several emails, over the past months. But again, anger and outrage are for people. Or for something close enough to people that there is anything redeemable about it. Disinfectants and vaccines are for public health problems. No less commitment, but a different kind, and hopefully a more focused mind. Eric > On Dec 29, 2017, at 10:49 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: > > You called it, Gillian. Trump and his ilk (Milo, Spencer, etc.) thrive on their ability to invoke. Beliefs and knowledge take a back seat, which is why they are so capable of munging the facts and changing their tune when confronted. > > So I have to disagree fundamentally with Nick, Merle, Tom, Frank, and Pamela. He's not "that stupid". In fact, that question is irrelevant. He simply knows how to push the buttons, especially of the well-intentioned people who care about beliefs and knowledge. > > On 12/29/2017 09:40 AM, Gillian Densmore wrote: >> He is one of these: >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll > > -- > ☣ uǝlƃ > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Is it possible to have, in this group, a civil discussion where the accepted view of the IPCC that unless we reduce CO2 emissions we are heading for disaster is challenged? On 29 December 2017 at 20:25, Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote: I agree with both Glen and Jillian, ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Yes, I think so. The trick, I think, is to demonstrate respect for those with whom we disagree. If someone posts, without rancor, an argument (preferably with data) arguing that the models are wrong in a crucial way, I know *I* would be interested.
I've posted tons of contrarian and stubborn, perhaps even stupid, opinions and have been treated with respect. On 12/29/2017 10:34 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: > Is it possible to have, in this group, a civil discussion where the accepted view of the IPCC that unless we reduce CO2 emissions we are heading for disaster is challenged? -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Thank you, I do appreciate. Let me start with my background. I have done modeling for predictions in engineering applications as a major part of my professional career of 40 years. I am now doing deep learning for making predictions. (Not necessarily relevant to this discussion, but I do combine ABM to get the emerging properties of the system as part of the deep learning exercise - a very exciting endeavor). In my career, I have made many technical mistakes. I guess this is part of making predictions based on models. I do not have any climate modeling expertise, but I do measure their success in the accuracy of the model's predictions. In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3 degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years. Maybe they are right in their new disaster predictions? IMO it would give them some credibility if they admit the uncertainties. On 29 December 2017 at 20:44, uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: Yes, I think so. The trick, I think, is to demonstrate respect for those with whom we disagree. If someone posts, without rancor, an argument (preferably with data) arguing that the models are wrong in a crucial way, I know *I* would be interested. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Pieter Steenekamp
Hi Peter,
By all means. I do not intend either aggression or even disrespect toward anybody who will argue any position honestly and in good faith. The thing that I was attacking below, and which I think needs to be regarded as an existential threat, is what I interpret as coordinated acting in bad faith. By that I mean a sort of dishonesty of motive, where the real motive is not at all the wellbeing of anybody on the receiving end. Many tactics go into that: deception, bullying, impoverishment, and more overt things. We have a crisis of bad faith in many dimensions, certainly in this country with which I am most familiar, but perhaps more widely. There is no statement that only means what it claims to be about. Any statement, with a dishonest motive, can be used for a purpose that isn’t what it claims to be about. That is on the sending end. On the receiving end, when there is a belief that all senders act in bad faith (whether or not that blame is earned), the receiver can choose to reject any statement, no matter how good its content is capable of being. We are in a bad downward spiral in that exchange. There is enough usage in bad faith that in some cases it justifies the cynicism of listeners, and in many more cases, it gives their cynicism a convenient rationalization. On the other side, when people give up thinking they have agency, but remain alive, cynicism and rejection and a general destructiveness can be a recourse to sinking just into frustration. I think those choices are mistakes, but I don’t think they necessarily deserve blame, and they certainly warrant an attitude of helpfulness and committed caring. Anybody who picks up a tool with the intention of genuinely helping others, and having the humility to understand that it is hard to know how to do that, but necessary to keep trying, is eligible to be a comrade of mine. All best, Eric > On Dec 29, 2017, at 11:34 AM, Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote: > > Is it possible to have, in this group, a civil discussion where the accepted view of the IPCC that unless we reduce CO2 emissions we are heading for disaster is challenged? > > On 29 December 2017 at 20:25, Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote: > I agree with both Glen and Jillian, > > this is more on the right tack. It’s not about stupidity. It’s about a kind of character degeneracy further down, and a certain kind of vileness that becomes possible at that level. > > I would add one thing to Jill’s and Glen’s emphasis (attention trolling), which is that this is about thugs. That goes beyond the executive to an increasingly purified right wing since Gingrich’s tactics in (the 80s?). It is not that they don’t know “the truth” of a matter; it is an active war on the existence of truth as a public good, or of anything else that impedes the exercise of thug power. Nick has articulated this cleanly in several emails, over the past months. > > But again, anger and outrage are for people. Or for something close enough to people that there is anything redeemable about it. Disinfectants and vaccines are for public health problems. No less commitment, but a different kind, and hopefully a more focused mind. > > Eric > > > > On Dec 29, 2017, at 10:49 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: > > > > You called it, Gillian. Trump and his ilk (Milo, Spencer, etc.) thrive on their ability to invoke. Beliefs and knowledge take a back seat, which is why they are so capable of munging the facts and changing their tune when confronted. > > > > So I have to disagree fundamentally with Nick, Merle, Tom, Frank, and Pamela. He's not "that stupid". In fact, that question is irrelevant. He simply knows how to push the buttons, especially of the well-intentioned people who care about beliefs and knowledge. > > > > On 12/29/2017 09:40 AM, Gillian Densmore wrote: > >> He is one of these: > >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll > > > > -- > > ☣ uǝlƃ > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Sorry; it would have helped if I had spelled your name correctly the first time.
Hurry is not of God, Eric > On Dec 29, 2017, at 12:18 PM, Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote: > > Hi Peter, > > By all means. I do not intend either aggression or even disrespect toward anybody who will argue any position honestly and in good faith. > > The thing that I was attacking below, and which I think needs to be regarded as an existential threat, is what I interpret as coordinated acting in bad faith. By that I mean a sort of dishonesty of motive, where the real motive is not at all the wellbeing of anybody on the receiving end. Many tactics go into that: deception, bullying, impoverishment, and more overt things. > > We have a crisis of bad faith in many dimensions, certainly in this country with which I am most familiar, but perhaps more widely. There is no statement that only means what it claims to be about. Any statement, with a dishonest motive, can be used for a purpose that isn’t what it claims to be about. That is on the sending end. On the receiving end, when there is a belief that all senders act in bad faith (whether or not that blame is earned), the receiver can choose to reject any statement, no matter how good its content is capable of being. > > We are in a bad downward spiral in that exchange. There is enough usage in bad faith that in some cases it justifies the cynicism of listeners, and in many more cases, it gives their cynicism a convenient rationalization. On the other side, when people give up thinking they have agency, but remain alive, cynicism and rejection and a general destructiveness can be a recourse to sinking just into frustration. I think those choices are mistakes, but I don’t think they necessarily deserve blame, and they certainly warrant an attitude of helpfulness and committed caring. > > Anybody who picks up a tool with the intention of genuinely helping others, and having the humility to understand that it is hard to know how to do that, but necessary to keep trying, is eligible to be a comrade of mine. > > All best, > > Eric > > >> On Dec 29, 2017, at 11:34 AM, Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote: >> >> Is it possible to have, in this group, a civil discussion where the accepted view of the IPCC that unless we reduce CO2 emissions we are heading for disaster is challenged? >> >> On 29 December 2017 at 20:25, Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote: >> I agree with both Glen and Jillian, >> >> this is more on the right tack. It’s not about stupidity. It’s about a kind of character degeneracy further down, and a certain kind of vileness that becomes possible at that level. >> >> I would add one thing to Jill’s and Glen’s emphasis (attention trolling), which is that this is about thugs. That goes beyond the executive to an increasingly purified right wing since Gingrich’s tactics in (the 80s?). It is not that they don’t know “the truth” of a matter; it is an active war on the existence of truth as a public good, or of anything else that impedes the exercise of thug power. Nick has articulated this cleanly in several emails, over the past months. >> >> But again, anger and outrage are for people. Or for something close enough to people that there is anything redeemable about it. Disinfectants and vaccines are for public health problems. No less commitment, but a different kind, and hopefully a more focused mind. >> >> Eric >> >> >>> On Dec 29, 2017, at 10:49 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: >>> >>> You called it, Gillian. Trump and his ilk (Milo, Spencer, etc.) thrive on their ability to invoke. Beliefs and knowledge take a back seat, which is why they are so capable of munging the facts and changing their tune when confronted. >>> >>> So I have to disagree fundamentally with Nick, Merle, Tom, Frank, and Pamela. He's not "that stupid". In fact, that question is irrelevant. He simply knows how to push the buttons, especially of the well-intentioned people who care about beliefs and knowledge. >>> >>> On 12/29/2017 09:40 AM, Gillian Densmore wrote: >>>> He is one of these: >>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll >>> >>> -- >>> ☣ uǝlƃ >>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Pieter Steenekamp
I agree that admitting one's mistakes and specifying (honest) uncertainty lends credibility. But, as Eric says in his recent post, expressions of uncertainty can be abused, as well. In this regard, scientists face a very difficult dilemma.
It's interesting to consider a topic just as controversial to scientists, but opaque to the laity: the big bang and inflation. I think it's pretty clear there was no big bang, at least not as naively conceived. When one cosmologist talks to another, they probably freely admit that. But when a cosmologist talks to a regular person, of course there was a big bang. So, it's easy to see why the IPCC would hesitate to proclaim their uncertainty very loudly. Their conclusions could easily be lost. But more to your point, yes, their predictions from 1990 were bound to be wrong to some extent (as are all predictions). Their new predictions will be wrong, too. And it's good for everyone to know the full dimension of the predictions. However, what you didn't mention was the extent to which the models have *evolved* from 1990 to 2014 (and 2014 to today). What we need is a fuller understanding of the modeling workflow. All models are iteratively constructed. Do you know how the models have evolved from 1990 to today? On 12/29/2017 11:16 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: > In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3 degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years. > > Maybe they are right in their new disaster predictions? IMO it would give them some credibility if they admit the uncertainties. -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Maybe I do not appreciate fully how the models have evolved since 1990. I have studied the reports and even for me it's it'd very complicated. Do you mind giving me a simple explanation of what you are referring to? On 29 December 2017 at 21:28, uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: I agree that admitting one's mistakes and specifying (honest) uncertainty lends credibility. But, as Eric says in his recent post, expressions of uncertainty can be abused, as well. In this regard, scientists face a very difficult dilemma. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Pieter Steenekamp
"In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3 degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years."
The second plot gives an idea of how these estimates, based on observation, could go wrong. However, the first plot in the first image shows a trend over a larger interval, which is consistent with matching the observational
& simulation outputs for longer periods.
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]>
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 12:16:38 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change Thank you, I do appreciate.
Let me start with my background. I have done modeling for predictions in engineering applications as a major part of my professional career of 40 years. I am now doing deep learning for making predictions. (Not necessarily relevant to this discussion,
but I do combine ABM to get the emerging properties of the system as part of the deep learning exercise - a very exciting endeavor).
In my career, I have made many technical mistakes. I guess this is part of making predictions based on models. I do not have any climate modeling expertise, but I do measure their success in the accuracy of the model's predictions.
In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3 degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years.
Maybe they are right in their new disaster predictions? IMO it would give them some credibility if they admit the uncertainties.
On 29 December 2017 at 20:44, uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Yes, I think so. The trick, I think, is to demonstrate respect for those with whom we disagree. If someone posts, without rancor, an argument (preferably with data) arguing that the models are wrong in a crucial way, I know *I* would be interested. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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