Friam

the end of the pandemic

Classic

List

Threaded

48 messages Options

123

Prof David West

the end of the pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.

This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.

The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.

A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.

"Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."

Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.

The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.

Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.

There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"

None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

davew

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

gepr

Re: the end of the pandemic

Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:

> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Prof David West

Dave writes:

< There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?" >

Many of these people may have nowhere to go, in terms of employment. Those consequences will not be reversible just by deciding to change or ignore health guidelines. Meanwhile, the cities that have some savings, some semblance of a social safety net, and an enduring tax base of relatively affluent individuals, will focus inward and become more autonomous from the federal government and even their state governments. The economy will rebuild around these robust nuclei, and will fall further into disarray outside of them.

For example, here in the Bay Area, one can just order groceries from a local organic outlet and have them delivered. No need to bother with meat packing factories in South Dakota.

Marcus

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Gary Schiltz-4

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by gepr

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by gepr

Glen writes:

< Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. >

Compared to what? Confluence or Slack? One problem I have with the former is that web-based editing is still spongy, slow and arbitrarily different from a real editor. Slack still lacks nestable threads and encourages shallow, synchronous communication. E-mail is low latency when it needs to be, but also facilitates multimedia detail.

Marcus

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

gepr

Re: the end of the pandemic

On 5/11/20 9:11 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Compared to what? Confluence or Slack? One problem I have with the former is that web-based editing is still spongy, slow and arbitrarily different from a real editor. Slack still lacks nestable threads and encourages shallow, synchronous communication. E-mail is low latency when it needs to be, but also facilitates multimedia detail.

Sure, when used correctly, email supports threading and pretty much every other feature one can imagine. But it depends fundamentally on the email *client* (or clients, as I have to use both .procmail and Thunderbird to get things working to my satisfaction), strongly on the user, and peripherally on the community standards (e.g. top- or bottom-posting). But, as is clear in this forum, email clients can be weak or broken, users are lazy, and "community" requires at least some herding.

I hate Slack. But I have to use it because so many others do. I like Discord better. I like IRC (and HexChat) even better. But only the dorkiest of dorks use IRC anymore.

I haven't used Confluence. So I can't comment. But I've used GDocs, Zoho, and Teams a bit. GDocs can be a bit weird, but it's better than Zoho or Teams, I think. For work, a combination of Slack and GDrive/GDocs works pretty well ... way better than email + desktop apps.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

thompnickson2

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Prof David West

Good trolling?/Bad trolling?

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 8:42 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.

This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.

The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.

A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.

"Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."

Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.

The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.

Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.

There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"

None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

davew

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Steve Smith

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Prof David West

Dave -

The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.

This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.

The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.

A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.

"Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."

Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.

The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.

Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.

There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"

None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

Look away...nothing to see here... move along... nothing up my sleeve!

Glen (and others here) often use the idiom of "strawman" and "steelman" as apparatus for argument or maybe more to the point of my interest, illuminating dialog. I would like to bring up a related idiom of "the stalking horse". I would like to submit your prediction here as such is significantly meant (and taken) as a "stalking horse"... And the p;oint of it is "what is it helping us to think about in a different way?"

I simply can't read this as a "simple observation / prediction"... I believe it is laced with judgements and assumptions... some I agree with and some which I find either questionable in substance or in intent, but all worth inspecting.

I don't want to bash you with this Dave, just put it out on the table in the same spirit I think you are offering these observations. What DOES this observation expose and what does it (perhaps) obscure? Can it do both at the same time?

A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.

I think this phrase (framed by other phrases like "media hysteria") suggests that whatever this pandemic (virtually?) the entire planet has been experiencing is predominately a psychological/social experience, rather than the biological/physiological phenomenon identified as SARS-Cov-2 and it's biological coupling with it's newly found host population of modern humans who live, work, and socialize in confined spaces and travel widely (often in closely confined conveyances). It seems to imply that this last 4-8 weeks of radical self/government incited social-distancing has had NO (or little) effect on the biological reality of the network spread of a human-human airborne disease, and that it has been ENTIRELY (or mostly) a tool of social manipulation and control (and/or self-soothing?).

I don't want to suggest for a moment that we as a people/culture are not capable of mass hysteria or mass illusions... and in fact would submit that ideas like "politics" or "economy" or "society" are constructed on precisely that. The part of your observation (without accepting or rejecting the prediction aspect) that exposes that aspect I think is very important... but to expose it in a way that is limited to undermining *one* illusion, whilst supporting *yet another* does not improve our circumstance, but rather simply stirs the mud in a different direction.

I think your allusion to seat-belt laws (and my own extension of that to motorcycle helmet laws) is apt and relevant but wrong. Both seem to *only* preserve the sensitivities and sensibilities of the public and/or emergency-response people who have to scrape up the gore that might have been mildly less gory with those safety devices in use. I will also admit (in this tangent) that seat-belts and helmets usually/mostly also help to shift the costs of insurance-supported-recovery from/to funeral expenses, etc. I'm fairly confident that the my wearing a mask while mixing in a population whose R0 is close to or above 1.0 (whether from herd immunity or lack of infection in the community or effective prophylaxis) protects others from the *probability* of my infecting them, as well as *signalling* to them that *I* believe R0 to be sufficiently high without it so as to want to reduce my own participation with this asymmetric "spittle barrier".

I currently never leave my property without a bandana and raise it over my mouth and nose anytime I expect to be within a few yards of other people or am on approach to them. I am *over* careful with this by some standards for two specific reasons related to your "perception" point. I want to reinforce the idea that it is prudent for everyone who might have the virus to keep their spittle to themselves whether it is a cough, a sneeze, or just the specks that fly while speaking whether currently in a frothy mood or not. I also feel *midly* safer with that in place while standing opposite someone *without* their own face-covering and without a sneeze shield (virtually all retail encounters?) between us. I also almost entirely avoid close contact (same room) with anyone I recognize as high-risk (elderly, immuno-compromised, etc.) and maintain the 6'+ prescribed distance from everyone not already "in my pod" (nod to Nick's term) with or without masks.

- Steve


davew



.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

thompnickson2

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Gary Schiltz-4

Gary,

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:

> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Gary Schiltz-4

Re: the end of the pandemic

I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:

> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

thompnickson2

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Steve Smith

While we are all piling on Dave ….

His post made me grumpy because it cast us back into Excluded Middle discourse. Neither are we going to go back to the way we were, nor are we going to remain in lock down mode. We ARE going to do something in the middle. What is that thing going to be? Public health people seem to thing that we are going to squeeze the infection rate DOWN and the testing rate UP to the point where test, trace, isolate becomes a practical policy. NM should be trialing such a program and Santa Fe right now, given that the County of 150k only has 2 identified new cases a day. That is so few, that it would seem that the City has zero endemic circulation. This small number of new cases could be entirely from people coming in from outside. It’s a wonderful opportunity to explore test, trace, isolate as a policy.

I am sympathetic to the notion lurking in Dave’s post that too much effort is being expended to spare the White Elderly at the expense of the Brown Poor. But I have completely lost track of the statistics that would support sequestering the vulnerable and letting everybody else go about their business. That’s not going to be easy, as the recent experience of our elder-living facilities has demonstrated. And I keep reading reports of horrendous deaths of hale people in their 40’s. For people under 50, what is the relative lethality of this virus and the flu? That data must be out there.

By the way, speaking of predictions, I predicted back in February that there would be no democratic convention this year. That one’s looking pretty good.

By another way, my 7 years of Childhood Latin, otherwise totally useless, suggests to me that Tempus Dictum should be translated, “Only Time Will Tell”.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:50 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

Dave -

The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.

This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.

The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed.  And none of this will matter.

A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.

"Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift  — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."

Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.

The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.

Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.

There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"

None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

Look away...nothing to see here... move along... nothing up my sleeve!

A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.

- Steve

davew

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

thompnickson2

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Gary Schiltz-4

Gary,

FOOD before FRIAM! Definitely. But if you do bet back before noon Mountain, sign on; we are often still going at it, even that late.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:

> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: the end of the pandemic

My high school best friend Jim Snoke posted this on Facebook. He is also an anthropologist, like Dave. He says he finished his dissertation at UC Davis but his defense never happened because his major adviser moved to another university. (?). He has gotten involved in a major way with Native American causes and got about 40,000 signatures on a petition to save Chaco National Monument from fracking damage. He still lives in CA so he asked me to deliver it to the Governor's Office personally. I tried but they didn't really want that much paper. They said to tell him to email a digital file with the signatures. They took it seriously.

Compare the arguments of the two anthropologists:

The death rate in the United States, without considering the Covid-19 outbreak – and decades before it was even a twinkle in the eyes of America – stood at roughly 8.7 per 1000 people per year. That translates into a death rate of 0.0087. There are roughly 330 million people in the United States this year, and that translates into the following figure: 2,871,000. Two million, eight hundred and seventy-one thousand people die EVERY YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES of “natural” and “unnatural “ causes. Keep that figure in mind when those in power, and those in the media, scare the shit out of people with their dire “predictions” about the rising infection and death rates. At the present time, our already fragile economy is going to be ruined beyond all recovery – quite likely forever – and the draconian measures to “fight the virus” will have succeeded in destroying the lives of almost half of our total population in the name of a “pandemic” that is taking less than a tenth of 1 percent of the population. My point is that NO ONE in the United States goes berserk over the FACT that 2,871,000 people die – in this country alone – every year. We don’t forfeit our economy and our way of life over these equally-tragic deaths. But let it be an epidemic, and we DO forfeit our economy and our way of life – and the “epidemic” will NEVER, NEVER, NEVER reach the truly-epidemic proportions that constitute the NATURAL and UNNATURAL, ONGOING DEATH RATE IN THE UNITED STATES. OMG!!! 270,000 people have died from the pandemic !!!!! Yes, it is horrible – but what about the 2,871,000 people that die every year regardless of the pandemic??? 10 times the death rate of the “pandemic” -- every single, Goddamned year. Where is the outrage?? Where is the concern?? Are we actually so scared shitless that we are willing to lose our ENTIRE ECONOMY, OUR JOBS, OUR INCOMES??? Has anybody thought this through?? We have flunked, outright, many many tests as a population over the past 100 years. Those of you who insist on arguing that: “THIS IS DIFFERENT – IT IS AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE THAT WE HAD NO CONTROL OVER, AND IT MIGHT HAVE KILLED US” need to keep in mind that although there are now more than 30,000,000 unemployed – and soon to be upwards of 50,000,000 – someone stands to gain from all this. Trump is using the distraction of the pandemic to go after fracking leases in our National Parks, large businesses are profiting from the “bailout” by looting the U.S. Treasury, Shell Oil and others are cutting down the rainforest in Brazil at a rate that is 50% higher this year than ever before, and capitalism in general is nailing the coffin shut on control of the World’s economies. Once again, we humans are failing the test, and this time the “F” we get will be "F"orever.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, May 11, 2020, 11:45 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

FOOD before FRIAM! Definitely. But if you do bet back before noon Mountain, sign on; we are often still going at it, even that late.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Gary,

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:

> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: the end of the pandemic

To be fair make the reference be for uncontrolled spread. Let’s say everyone gets COVID-19 and 5-10% die, because the hospitals are clogged and there are no treatments. Would we be better off with 10% less people? Yeah, probably. That would go some ways to making social security system whole, as Nick pointed out. As a bounds they throw out 50% of Americans’ lives, ruined. Well, let’s just make that dead to not squabble over semantics. Is 50% too high?

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Monday, May 11, 2020 at 11:08 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

Compare the arguments of the two anthropologists:

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, May 11, 2020, 11:45 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

FOOD before FRIAM! Definitely. But if you do bet back before noon Mountain, sign on; we are often still going at it, even that late.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

gepr

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

This is clearly wrong. People go berserk on a regular basis over various injustices (the strangling of black men, lynching of trans people, bankruptcy from healthcare bills, losing one's home because they got laid off, living in a tent on the highway with 3 children, choosing between rent and food, etc. I just posted a socialist video game, made by a socialist media network, glorifying violence, that would not exist if *no one* went berserk over these and other issues. The trick is that there are many of us rich folk who choose to attribute the berserk goings on to other things, treating the symptoms without ever addressing the underlying causes.

To me, this pandemic has done us a favor and shed some light on how thin the veneer is ... the thin, gauzy layer of bandaid holding in the mounds of pustulent violence bubbling beneath it. We rich people are about to sit through a Come to Jesus meeting with reality *unless* we reopen the economy ... [cough] put our blinders back on ... so that we rich people can continue to ignore the 3 million deaths every year.

On 5/11/20 11:07 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> My point is that NO ONE in the United States goes berserk over the FACT that 2,871,000 people die – in this country alone – every year.
--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: the end of the pandemic

If old people don't eventually die or if babies stop being born in large enough numbers Social Security is doomed.

Frank

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 12:22 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

This is clearly wrong. People go berserk on a regular basis over various injustices (the strangling of black men, lynching of trans people, bankruptcy from healthcare bills, losing one's home because they got laid off, living in a tent on the highway with 3 children, choosing between rent and food, etc. I just posted a socialist video game, made by a socialist media network, glorifying violence, that would not exist if *no one* went berserk over these and other issues. The trick is that there are many of us rich folk who choose to attribute the berserk goings on to other things, treating the symptoms without ever addressing the underlying causes.

To me, this pandemic has done us a favor and shed some light on how thin the veneer is ... the thin, gauzy layer of bandaid holding in the mounds of pustulent violence bubbling beneath it. We rich people are about to sit through a Come to Jesus meeting with reality *unless* we reopen the economy ... [cough] put our blinders back on ... so that we rich people can continue to ignore the 3 million deaths every year.

On 5/11/20 11:07 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> My point is that NO ONE in the United States goes berserk over the FACT that 2,871,000 people die – in this country alone – every year.
--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

Robert J. Cordingley

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

Perhaps some data (from the last years that I could find) would put the 'anthropologists' argument in perspective?

2017-now US Population about 320 million.

US Suicides 2017

14.0 per 100,000

Total: 47,173

US Motor Vehicle Fatalities 2018

11.18 per 100,000

Total: 36,560

US Covid-19 Fatalities 5/11/20 132 days into the year with one wave under our belt

24.32 per 100,000

Total 2019 YTD: 80,094

US Spanish Flu Fatalities (1918 H1N1 flu pandemic) - in as many as three waves.

US Population: 103,208,000

654 per 100,000

Total Mar 1918 - Mar 1919: 675,000

And yes people to go after the annual fatalities depending on the cause, especially leading causes: heart disease, cancer, gun violence, opioid abuse, domestic abuse, police violence, etc. And of course, you can bring back jobs and the economy, you can't bring back lost loved ones. And there are more waves to come.

And then we will continue experiencing more global warming induced disasters: fires, flood, cyclones, more SARS-CoV-## style zoonotic pandemics, climate refugees. What happens when these happen simultaneously?

It's hard not to conclude that capitalism is and has been a complete and utter abject failure when responding and dealing with these events, not mention it being among the causes, but I digress.

Ref:

https://www.acep.org/how-we-serve/sections/disaster-medicine/news/april-2018/1918-influenza-pandemic-a-united-states-timeline/

https://interestingengineering.com/the-1918-spanish-flu-and-what-it-cost-humanity-a-timeline

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929

Robert Cordingley - an occasional lurker.

On 5/11/20 12:07 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My high school best friend Jim Snoke posted this on Facebook. He is also an anthropologist, like Dave. He says he finished his dissertation at UC Davis but his defense never happened because his major adviser moved to another university. (?). He has gotten involved in a major way with Native American causes and got about 40,000 signatures on a petition to save Chaco National Monument from fracking damage. He still lives in CA so he asked me to deliver it to the Governor's Office personally. I tried but they didn't really want that much paper. They said to tell him to email a digital file with the signatures. They took it seriously.

Compare the arguments of the two anthropologists:

The death rate in the United States, without considering the Covid-19 outbreak – and decades before it was even a twinkle in the eyes of America – stood at roughly 8.7 per 1000 people per year. That translates into a death rate of 0.0087. There are roughly 330 million people in the United States this year, and that translates into the following figure: 2,871,000. Two million, eight hundred and seventy-one thousand people die EVERY YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES of “natural” and “unnatural “ causes. Keep that figure in mind when those in power, and those in the media, scare the shit out of people with their dire “predictions” about the rising infection and death rates. At the present time, our already fragile economy is going to be ruined beyond all recovery – quite likely forever – and the draconian measures to “fight the virus” will have succeeded in destroying the lives of almost half of our total population in the name of a “pandemic” that is taking less than a tenth of 1 percent of the population. My point is that NO ONE in the United States goes berserk over the FACT that 2,871,000 people die – in this country alone – every year. We don’t forfeit our economy and our way of life over these equally-tragic deaths. But let it be an epidemic, and we DO forfeit our economy and our way of life – and the “epidemic” will NEVER, NEVER, NEVER reach the truly-epidemic proportions that constitute the NATURAL and UNNATURAL, ONGOING DEATH RATE IN THE UNITED STATES. OMG!!! 270,000 people have died from the pandemic !!!!! Yes, it is horrible – but what about the 2,871,000 people that die every year regardless of the pandemic??? 10 times the death rate of the “pandemic” -- every single, Goddamned year. Where is the outrage?? Where is the concern?? Are we actually so scared shitless that we are willing to lose our ENTIRE ECONOMY, OUR JOBS, OUR INCOMES??? Has anybody thought this through?? We have flunked, outright, many many tests as a population over the past 100 years. Those of you who insist on arguing that: “THIS IS DIFFERENT – IT IS AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE THAT WE HAD NO CONTROL OVER, AND IT MIGHT HAVE KILLED US” need to keep in mind that although there are now more than 30,000,000 unemployed – and soon to be upwards of 50,000,000 – someone stands to gain from all this. Trump is using the distraction of the pandemic to go after fracking leases in our National Parks, large businesses are profiting from the “bailout” by looting the U.S. Treasury, Shell Oil and others are cutting down the rainforest in Brazil at a rate that is 50% higher this year than ever before, and capitalism in general is nailing the coffin shut on control of the World’s economies. Once again, we humans are failing the test, and this time the “F” we get will be "F"orever.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, May 11, 2020, 11:45 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

FOOD before FRIAM! Definitely. But if you do bet back before noon Mountain, sign on; we are often still going at it, even that late.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

-- 
Cirrillian 
Web Design & Development
Santa Fe, NM
http://cirrillian.com
281-989-6272 (cell)

Steve Smith

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Gary Schiltz-4

Gary -

I'd find it interesting and informative if not directly actionable to know more about how things are there in Ecuador.

I'm surprised that you are as far from groceries as 50 miles? I was thinking you were living closer to a major city (Quito?) but nevertheless semi-rural? Are there no smaller markets open closer to you, or do you prefer to shop (only) at the larger markets (limiting yourself to 1 trip)? What are the infection rates there and do you have a feeling for where the biggest risks are for the population?

I track a few "instagrammer types" who were traveling in self-contained van/camper setups around the world when this hit. One has returned from their trek from Utah down to Tierra del Fuego (and back), finally giving up and returning from the Uraguayan border of Argentina by airline, leaving their van in storage there. The other couple had already bought a small piece of land and parked their converted short-bus there permanently when this hit and have been reporting nearly daily as they cope with the shutdowns there. Others were in Morocco (now one in Canada and the others in Croatia and another back in the UK). Each one has their own idiosyncratic view of the whole experience, but the bottom line I'm sensing is that those countries (and the ones some had to travel through) are MUCH more draconian in their rules than the US is, for better or worse.

Maybe this pandemic is an illusion created and maintained by "the liberal elite", but if it is their reach is a great deal more expansive than I could have imagined.

My 22 year old nephew in Tucson was just released from his (self) quarantine. His earliest symptoms came on at the end of March but he was unable to get a doctor's appointment or a (subsequent) test, just the phone recommendations to "stay home to avoid infecting anyone) and some general information about what symptoms to treat as worthy of an emergency hospital visit. He didn't have overtly corona-exclusive symptoms until about 2 weeks in, when his smell and taste were severely compromised. He is still having mild fatigue and shortness of breath, but nothing that can't be attributed to being (ever-more) sedentary for 6 weeks. He's following social-distance and masking when leaving home, but the doctors (on the phone) gave him the greenlight with those restrictions. It is a mildly hypochondriac family, and I know he gets extra points/dispensation for having been infected, but it does sound like he probably was. He says the docs are not offering antigen testing, ambiguously because A) they don't have access; or B) they don't think it should change his future behaviour.

Last night, I zoomed with that whole branch of my family (my mother, my only sister, her husband and their 3 adult children), all excepting the nephew are hard-core Fox-News watching Trump-train riders. One niece is a nurse in Riverside CA, living with a Doctor.. both treating COVID19 patients daily, though their hospital is mid-sized and has not been overwhelmed, specializing in taking the overflow from the smaller surrounding towns and running a suite of triage tents in the parking lot. There was no discussion of politics including NO rattling on (like they did 6 weeks ago) about the "Democrat Hoax".

My sister is in a k-8 Montessori school and half of the staff believes they do not need masks or PPE (now that they are back) but my sister (with her son's experience) is not giving over to that idea wears a mask, sanitizes, and keeps her distance as best she can. She is worried that if the students return (today) to that environment, that they are just asking to be another source of a fresh cluster of infections. The timing is such that whoever is (maybe) being exposed today, should be recovering (if they survive) from this fresh burst of infection about the time Dave thinks the pandemic (aka hysteria) will subside. It is a small school (a few hundred staff/teachers/students) and maybe nobody in that pool is currently infected, and maybe they will all avoid becoming infected during that period.

They also acknowledged (in January) that "Climate Change is real, and going to cause real problems for real people, like US!", when they had been ardent (if polite) deniers for at least the 20 years I have put down my own denial/cynicism on the topic. I have no idea who they are going to vote for in November... maybe they will just stay home (since AZ is not likely to eagerly embrace vote-by-mail like NM already has declared for).

ramble,

- Steve

On 5/11/20 11:13 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote:

I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

David Eric Smith

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

Replying to the Snoke post, and only to a specific part of it:

Why bother to put a bunch of text into refuting logical fallacies in screeds that were never about deduction in the first place?

Here is the republican version.

BOASTING: We have dismembered the government!

FEINED OUTRAGE: The government doesn’t do anything useful for us!

ERGO: Dismember the government!

As Marcus rightly said: don’t analyze; execute plans against these individuals.

The logical fallacy below? (Apart from the one Marcus already pointed out, that to compare a 3-month 1-cause death rate after mitigation to yearly all-cause, as the argument for no mitigation, is obvious bullshit that doesn’t even try to hide.). There was an article in the Atlantic sometime recently, that the 50-100 million dead from the Spanish flu left a significant mark within some parts of culture but the lives of a great many people. That was before fast transportation.

Whether a shutdown of a couple of months induces the collapse of an economy is not an inevitability, which the below pretends it is, but rather an outcome of quite clear choices. Choices in what the economy was before, and choices of what you do during the quick transient period. If you shut down quick and hard, backstop the _relations_ that keep people employed, implement test and trace and public health accepting that this will be a noticeable fraction of GDP going forward, and build new protocols understanding that work will not “go back” but will require a new compensating context, then this becomes a sharp and expensive setback. But the high-cost and high-latency steps of matching people to jobs on vast scale is not paid, because you don’t throw all that away. Likewise you choose a public redistribution over having debt crises in hundreds of millions of private contracts, all open to extortion because the debtors are alone and unorganized, etc.

It wasn’t the market drop of 1929 that caused the depression. The 1-day drop in 1987 was larger, I believe I one knew and now think I recall. It was how the economy had been structured before, plus the non-responses or poor responses of the Hoover administration, that turned a financial hitch into the entry to a decadal depression.

I was going to write a post a few days ago about how economists love to borrow metaphors from biology. This would be a good time to look at the abstraction of group selection, and maybe help it along a little. Countries that weren’t too sick at the beginning, and made a competent effort in the response, will have a few months sharp setback to deal with, and a year or more of considerable but not fatal costs. They should have months of head start in building back some degree of function, ahead of the countries that are working toward a depression and can be in this situation for a year or more (supposing there is a vaccine that soon). Maybe much longer than that if they create an economic collapse that is self-perpetuating even after public-health remedies become technically available.

NZ and Australia are looking at 2-country air travel if they think they can sanitize it enough. Air travel, to the extent that it resumes, should be added one-country-at-a-time to a club of those who can implement and follow a public health protocol that the current members accept, which includes keeping the case numbers of eligible travelers sufficiently low. Countries that are too corrupt or too incompetent to be admitted should be shut out. They wanted to be pariahs; help ensure that they are pariahs. It’s called sanctions. Leverage the advantage countries can gain from having chosen to do the right thing, as an investment in keeping their ideas alive and allowing better ideas to recolonize the wreckage of the places that burned themselves out.

It’s not just generalities and international steps either. There are specific things that one can look for ways to do. I am on a different list with a lot of farmers, and local agriculture is under demand it has not seen ever in modern times, while the centralized western/southern-states meatpackers both can’t get people to work, and have no infrastructure for storage and distribution to make emergency workarounds. So the players who used to be in coercive power are wobbly enough that we should try to tip them over. Instead of using public money to bail out a system that worked poorly before and can’t work at all now — and that will be a bad waste of public money because it is not built out correctly — we can look for opportunities both individual and political to try to get organized support into relocalizing ag. The farmers are on board and eager to go. One briefly could get the public’s attention, because they aren’t doing much else. That alone is not enough, but when the power was entrenched and well-defended, we didn’t even have this much.

I am not against Snokes's complaints that the predators are using this as a distraction to steal more. That seems correct and urgent. There is no reason it could not be mated to a more rounded picture of the other part. Probably he writes that way because he is trying to get a single local decision made _now_, in a context that he doesn’t have a way to change. But I wish he would accept so much language from a framing that is inherently false.

Eric

On May 12, 2020, at 3:07 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

My high school best friend Jim Snoke posted this on Facebook. He is also an anthropologist, like Dave. He says he finished his dissertation at UC Davis but his defense never happened because his major adviser moved to another university. (?). He has gotten involved in a major way with Native American causes and got about 40,000 signatures on a petition to save Chaco National Monument from fracking damage. He still lives in CA so he asked me to deliver it to the Governor's Office personally. I tried but they didn't really want that much paper. They said to tell him to email a digital file with the signatures. They took it seriously.

Compare the arguments of the two anthropologists:

The death rate in the United States, without considering the Covid-19 outbreak – and decades before it was even a twinkle in the eyes of America – stood at roughly 8.7 per 1000 people per year. That translates into a death rate of 0.0087. There are roughly 330 million people in the United States this year, and that translates into the following figure: 2,871,000. Two million, eight hundred and seventy-one thousand people die EVERY YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES of “natural” and “unnatural “ causes. Keep that figure in mind when those in power, and those in the media, scare the shit out of people with their dire “predictions” about the rising infection and death rates. At the present time, our already fragile economy is going to be ruined beyond all recovery – quite likely forever – and the draconian measures to “fight the virus” will have succeeded in destroying the lives of almost half of our total population in the name of a “pandemic” that is taking less than a tenth of 1 percent of the population. My point is that NO ONE in the United States goes berserk over the FACT that 2,871,000 people die – in this country alone – every year. We don’t forfeit our economy and our way of life over these equally-tragic deaths. But let it be an epidemic, and we DO forfeit our economy and our way of life – and the “epidemic” will NEVER, NEVER, NEVER reach the truly-epidemic proportions that constitute the NATURAL and UNNATURAL, ONGOING DEATH RATE IN THE UNITED STATES. OMG!!! 270,000 people have died from the pandemic !!!!! Yes, it is horrible – but what about the 2,871,000 people that die every year regardless of the pandemic??? 10 times the death rate of the “pandemic” -- every single, Goddamned year. Where is the outrage?? Where is the concern?? Are we actually so scared shitless that we are willing to lose our ENTIRE ECONOMY, OUR JOBS, OUR INCOMES??? Has anybody thought this through?? We have flunked, outright, many many tests as a population over the past 100 years. Those of you who insist on arguing that: “THIS IS DIFFERENT – IT IS AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE THAT WE HAD NO CONTROL OVER, AND IT MIGHT HAVE KILLED US” need to keep in mind that although there are now more than 30,000,000 unemployed – and soon to be upwards of 50,000,000 – someone stands to gain from all this. Trump is using the distraction of the pandemic to go after fracking leases in our National Parks, large businesses are profiting from the “bailout” by looting the U.S. Treasury, Shell Oil and others are cutting down the rainforest in Brazil at a rate that is 50% higher this year than ever before, and capitalism in general is nailing the coffin shut on control of the World’s economies. Once again, we humans are failing the test, and this time the “F” we get will be "F"orever.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, May 11, 2020, 11:45 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Gary,

FOOD before FRIAM! Definitely. But if you do bet back before noon Mountain, sign on; we are often still going at it, even that late.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Gary,

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:

> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Gary Schiltz-4

Re: the end of the pandemic

In reply to this post by Steve Smith

Ok, a little clarification is in order. Quito is about 50 miles away, but I'm not allowed to drive there (travel is extremely controlled right now). Where I can shop is only about 15 miles away, but I can only drive on Fridays, from 5am until 2pm. From 2pm until the following day at 5am is a nationwide curfew. Ecuador is in deep trouble, with on the order of 60-70 billion dollars of foreign debt, dependent on export of historically low-priced petroleum and bananas. Since the country switched to the US dollar in 2000, they can't simply print more money like some countries I could name. Good to avoid hyper-inflation, but how to keep essential services running? President Moreno's popularity is somewhere around 8% right now if I remember correctly. Despite all this, supplies of essentials (food, fuel) have not dried up - I don't know how. IMF just approved an additional $1.4 billion loan to tide the country over, but how long will that last? There are over 100 cantons in the country, and they are each allowed to decide which of three states to be in: red (most restrictive lockdown), yellow (considerable relaxing of restrictions), or green (fewest restrictions). Only three chose to stay move from red to yellow this week, the rest staying in red. I could go on and on, I just don't know how it's all going to turn out. Despite all this, I strangely feel safer here in the middle of my 100 acres of cloud forest than if I were in the USA.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 3:13 PM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary -

I'd find it interesting and informative if not directly actionable to know more about how things are there in Ecuador.

I'm surprised that you are as far from groceries as 50 miles? I was thinking you were living closer to a major city (Quito?) but nevertheless semi-rural?   Are there no smaller markets open closer to you, or do you prefer to shop (only) at the larger markets (limiting yourself to 1 trip)?   What are the infection rates there and do you have a feeling for where the biggest risks are for the population?

I track a few "instagrammer types" who were traveling in self-contained van/camper setups around the world when this hit.   One has returned from their trek from Utah down to Tierra del Fuego (and back), finally giving up and returning from the Uraguayan border of Argentina by airline, leaving their van in storage there.   The other couple had already bought a small piece of land and parked their converted short-bus there permanently when this hit and have been reporting nearly daily as they cope with the shutdowns there.   Others were in Morocco (now one in Canada and the others in Croatia and another back in the UK).   Each one has their own idiosyncratic view of the whole experience, but the bottom line I'm sensing is that those countries (and the ones some had to travel through) are MUCH more draconian in their rules than the US is, for better or worse.

Maybe this pandemic is an illusion created and maintained by "the liberal elite", but if it is their reach is a great deal more expansive than I could have imagined.

My 22 year old nephew in Tucson was just released from his (self) quarantine. His earliest symptoms came on at the end of March but he was unable to get a doctor's appointment or a (subsequent) test, just the phone recommendations to "stay home to avoid infecting anyone) and some general information about what symptoms to treat as worthy of an emergency hospital visit.   He didn't have overtly corona-exclusive symptoms until about 2 weeks in, when his smell and taste were severely compromised.   He is still having mild fatigue and shortness of breath, but nothing that can't be attributed to being (ever-more) sedentary for 6 weeks. He's following social-distance and masking when leaving home, but the doctors (on the phone) gave him the greenlight with those restrictions. It is a mildly hypochondriac family, and I know he gets extra points/dispensation for having been infected, but it does sound like he probably was. He says the docs are not offering antigen testing, ambiguously because A) they don't have access; or B) they don't think it should change his future behaviour.

Last night, I zoomed with that whole branch of my family (my mother, my only sister, her husband and their 3 adult children), all excepting the nephew are hard-core Fox-News watching Trump-train riders.   One niece is a nurse in Riverside CA, living with a Doctor.. both treating COVID19 patients daily, though their hospital is mid-sized and has not been overwhelmed, specializing in taking the overflow from the smaller surrounding towns and running a suite of triage tents in the parking lot.   There was no discussion of politics including NO rattling on (like they did 6 weeks ago) about the "Democrat Hoax".

My sister is in a k-8 Montessori school and half of the staff believes they do not need masks or PPE (now that they are back) but my sister (with her son's experience) is not giving over to that idea wears a mask, sanitizes, and keeps her distance as best she can. She is worried that if the students return (today) to that environment, that they are just asking to be another source of a fresh cluster of infections.   The timing is such that whoever is (maybe) being exposed today, should be recovering (if they survive) from this fresh burst of infection about the time Dave thinks the pandemic (aka hysteria) will subside. It is a small school (a few hundred staff/teachers/students) and maybe nobody in that pool is currently infected, and maybe they will all avoid becoming infected during that period.

They also acknowledged (in January) that "Climate Change is real, and going to cause real problems for real people, like US!", when they had been ardent (if polite) deniers for at least the 20 years I have put down my own denial/cynicism on the topic.    I have no idea who they are going to vote for in November... maybe they will just stay home (since AZ is not likely to eagerly embrace vote-by-mail like NM already has declared for).

ramble,

- Steve

On 5/11/20 11:13 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gary,

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

123