the end of the pandemic

[Frank Wimberly-2]

Sorry.  The wife says, "It turns out that it wasn't the meteor that killed the dinosaurs; it was stress about the meteor".

On Tue, May 12, 2020 at 5:02 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

Stress or virus

https://photos.google.com/photo/AF1QipNtFVkBUo9UR7UFiqk8Pe9Jvo-2WubK07UEUGhr

On Tue, May 12, 2020 at 2:33 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

Dave writes:

 

“Unfortunately, culture is, at minimum, NP-Hard and almost certainly NP complete.”

 

Noisy wetware is going to get anywhere without exponential resources?

Like Sars-COV2, the humans are sometimes prone to that rate of reproduction.

 

Marcus

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Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

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[Steve Smith]

Dave -

The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.

Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond to the singular prediction above:

What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe to indicate that the pandemic has ended?

From Wikipedia:

A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν, pan, "all" and δῆμος, demos, "people") is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people. A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.

The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/

In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.

Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?

- Steve

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

This is on one box in the living room.   Now consider an Amazon machine room the size of a football field full of machines each more powerful than this. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video-games/2020/05/13/unreal-engine-5s-demo-is-next-gen-graphics-showcase-youve-been-waiting/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Prof David West <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 at 1:23 PM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

 

Marcus,

 

Unfortunately, culture is, at minimum, NP-Hard and almost certainly NP complete.

 

davew

 

 

On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 2:18 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

Dave writes:

 

< Similar things happen all the time when we insist on focusing on "the science" and ignore the "art" and the insights of "non-scientific" disciplines and fields of inquiry. >

 

It is possible to state models of cultural interactions and simulate them on a computer.   When one does this, they will have said something precise enough to be wrong. 

 

Marcus

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[Prof David West]

Steve,

Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The latter will go away whether or not the disease does.

The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC, and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us, whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.

Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.

davew

On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

Dave -

The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.

Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond to the singular prediction above:

What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe to indicate that the pandemic has ended?

From Wikipedia:

A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν, pan, "all" and δῆμος, demos, "people") is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people. A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.

The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/

In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.

Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?

- Steve

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

Here’s what I expect will probably happen.   The PANDEMIC will be declared over, like Mission Accomplished with W.   There will be a slower burn until fall, and then it will accelerate again.   But people will be acclimate to the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence.    Unemployment and homelessness will soar and be persistent.   Suicides will go up, and be normalized.   Meanwhile, people with the means will self-isolate and be the first to get access to antiviral treatments.  Out in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk populations.   The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence compared to other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl moment, where the prestige of the United States fell to Asia.   And a second term of Trump will ensure it.

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Prof David West <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

 

Steve,

 

Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The latter will go away whether or not the disease does.

 

The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC, and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us, whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.

 

Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.

 

davew

 

 

 

On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

Dave -

The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.

Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond to the singular prediction above:

 

What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe to indicate that the pandemic has ended?

From Wikipedia:

A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν, pan, "all" and δῆμος, demos, "people") is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people. A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.

The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/

In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.

 

Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?

- Steve

 

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[jon zingale]

Dave,

Today markedly begins tourism season here in Santa Fe.

Over the last month, I have been going for long walks

downtown around the plaza. I prefer it to the crowded

walks along the bicycle paths and until today, all the

business were closed and the park relatively empty.

Today, I counted around 50 in or around the park.

On my way home (I live downtown), I passed vacation

rentals, teeming with life. Families are arriving en masse

from Texas, California, Colorado and the rest. I suspect,

Santa Fe may see the exponentiation it had so carefully

managed to avoid.

Jon

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[thompnickson2]

Time for me to pack up and get out?

 

N

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Jon Zingale
Sent: Saturday, May 16, 2020 2:39 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

 

Dave,

 

Today markedly begins tourism season here in Santa Fe.

Over the last month, I have been going for long walks

downtown around the plaza. I prefer it to the crowded

walks along the bicycle paths and until today, all the

business were closed and the park relatively empty.

Today, I counted around 50 in or around the park.

On my way home (I live downtown), I passed vacation

rentals, teeming with life. Families are arriving en masse

from Texas, California, Colorado and the rest. I suspect,

Santa Fe may see the exponentiation it had so carefully

managed to avoid.

 

Jon

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 2:28 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

 

Time for me to pack up and get out?

 

N

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Jon Zingale
Sent: Saturday, May 16, 2020 2:39 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

 

Dave,

 

Today markedly begins tourism season here in Santa Fe.

Over the last month, I have been going for long walks

downtown around the plaza. I prefer it to the crowded

walks along the bicycle paths and until today, all the

business were closed and the park relatively empty.

Today, I counted around 50 in or around the park.

On my way home (I live downtown), I passed vacation

rentals, teeming with life. Families are arriving en masse

from Texas, California, Colorado and the rest. I suspect,

Santa Fe may see the exponentiation it had so carefully

managed to avoid.

 

Jon

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