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Prof David West

numbers

Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Tom Johnson

Re: numbers

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West <[hidden email]> wrote:

Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by Prof David West

Dollars should have a positive superlinear relationship to population density because the risk of transmission is higher in more densely populated regions.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:01 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] numbers

Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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George Duncan-2

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by Tom Johnson

Agreed, Tom. Also, what does "increase" mean?

George Duncan

Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
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"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion."

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"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 9:11 AM Tom Johnson <[hidden email]> wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West <[hidden email]> wrote:
Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Barry MacKichan

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by Tom Johnson

The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West <[hidden email]> wrote:
Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Gary Schiltz-4

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by Prof David West

For me, neither is scary. It contributes to my personal policy of avoiding densely populated areas.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 11:01 AM Prof David West <[hidden email]> wrote:

Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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thompnickson2

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by Barry MacKichan

Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s proprietary info.

How’s that for government transparency!

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 10:31 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West <[hidden email]> wrote:
Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Barry MacKichan

Re: numbers

One of the first search hits is https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code
—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, [hidden email] wrote:

Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s proprietary info.

How’s that for government transparency!

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 10:31 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
—Barry
On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:
Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West <[hidden email]> wrote:
Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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gepr

Re: numbers

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app:

E.g. for my zip code (98502):

https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=&parameterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html

I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.

On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:

> One of the first search hits is https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code <https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code>
> —Barry
>
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, [hidden email] wrote:
>
> Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s proprietary info.
>
>
>
> How’s that for government transparency!

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

David Eric Smith

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by Barry MacKichan

It’s an interesting question what summary statistic would be informative across the several dimensions of context in demography. Total numbers are not by themselves, but neither are fractions.

Here’s my candidate, though it would require a parametric model of some sort:

Complementary cumulative probability: what is the probability a typical person in a given locale can get through a day and _not_ spend 15 minutes inhaling SARS-COV2 (at or above some threshold density)?

If crowd density is higher for a typical person (people in high-rises), the probability rapidly goes down with increasing average infection rate, while at low density (people in spread-out single-family dwellings) it goes down as a smaller power. The probability you can avoid the hazards also depends on connectivity and the likelihood that any given person can impact several environments.

Not easy to estimate, but not wildly harder at zeroth order than the kinds of models epidemiologists already make. It takes advantage of the invariants of the problem: every person lives 24 hours per day, and typically takes some part of a week to get sick and a couple of weeks to recover (with a distribution one could include if desired). So the bottom line for an individual anywhere is: what chance do I have of not being part of some chain of transmission.

Eric

On Nov 2, 2020, at 11:31 AM, Barry MacKichan <[hidden email]> wrote:

The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
—Barry
On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West <[hidden email]> wrote:
Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Tom Johnson

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by thompnickson2

Sure. That's relatively easy: https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Solution.aspx/DemographicMapping?msclkid=330ecefd29021db98663915d73f04876&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Campaign+%231&utm_term=demographic+data+by+zip+code&utm_content=Demographic+maps&vid=cd0e5586-e53d-4b1c-b9c2-8bb55a87109a

and

http://zipatlas.com/us/nm/zip-code-comparison/population-density.htm

============================================
Tom Johnson - [hidden email]
Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA
505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h)
NM Foundation for Open Government
Check out It's The People's Data

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On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 9:59 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s proprietary info.

How’s that for government transparency!

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 10:31 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
—Barry
On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:
Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West <[hidden email]> wrote:
Which is scarier?

-- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
-- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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thompnickson2

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by gepr

Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't know why "100". In a sane world, that would be the population in hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million, which seems a bit heavy. In any case, for those of you following case increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as the most recent per day 7 day increments. . The second two columns are deviation are expectation and deviation. No surprises there, except that there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course. 507 has a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that it's better for your health to be rich than poor. Caveat emptor: these calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.

501 - 15,147 - 13% - 02.3c - 4 -

505 - 31,013 - 25% - 06.0 - 8 -

506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5 - 3 +

507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0 - 12 ++

508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5 - 5 -

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app:

E.g. for my zip code (98502):

https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=&parameterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html

I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.

On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:

> One of the first search hits is

> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code

> <https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code>

> —Barry

> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, [hidden email] wrote:

> Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s

> proprietary info.

> How’s that for government transparency!

↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Tom Johnson

Re: numbers

Nick:

I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis. Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019. ZIP 87507 has about 50k. Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator when looking at cases by ZIP.

Tom

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On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't know why "100". In a sane world, that would be the population in hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million, which seems a bit heavy. In any case, for those of you following case increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as the most recent per day 7 day increments. . The second two columns are deviation are expectation and deviation. No surprises there, except that there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course. 507 has a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that it's better for your health to be rich than poor. Caveat emptor: these calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.

501 - 15,147 - 13% - 02.3c - 4 -
505 - 31,013 - 25% - 06.0   - 8 -
506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +
507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++
508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5 - 5 -

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app:

E.g. for my zip code (98502):

https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=&parameterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html

I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.

On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
> One of the first search hits is
> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code
> <https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code>
> —Barry
>
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, [hidden email] wrote:
>
>     Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s
> proprietary info.
>
>
>
>     How’s that for government transparency!

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Tom Johnson

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by thompnickson2

Nick, et al. -

Here's what I sent to a friend at the New Mexican in August:

Henry:
I know, I know. I'm a bit of a crank, but...

The online edition of the New Mexican has many data graphics that help readers put the virus in context: https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/virus/

Yet what we see in print (p. A-4 today), with one exception, totally fails to supply any context for the data. Yes, the "Daily cases reported in New Mexico" chart supplies the necessary context of change over time. But using space and ink to print "Positive Cases By County" or "Virus Tracker" are, essentially, meaningless numbers without any display of statistical normalization, i.e. cases per thousand, etc. And perhaps most misleading is the ZIP code map of cases by ZIP?

There are ~350 ZIP codes in New Mexico. They range in population from about 80,000 to fewer than 10. In our local case, ZIP 87505 has about 25,000 people while 87505 has twice as many. To simply see a "daily" number with an arrow tells us nothing about the rates per TK residents or the change over time in any of those ZIPs.

So, I fully appreciate the shortage of staff and newshole, but (a) isn't there some way to present the data in a more meaningful way in the print edition and, (b) why not at least direct readers of the ink-on-paper edition to the helpful online data at the link above?

Adelante,
Tom

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On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't know why "100". In a sane world, that would be the population in hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million, which seems a bit heavy. In any case, for those of you following case increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as the most recent per day 7 day increments. . The second two columns are deviation are expectation and deviation. No surprises there, except that there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course. 507 has a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that it's better for your health to be rich than poor. Caveat emptor: these calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.

501 - 15,147 - 13% - 02.3c - 4 -
505 - 31,013 - 25% - 06.0   - 8 -
506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +
507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++
508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5 - 5 -

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app:

E.g. for my zip code (98502):

https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=&parameterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html

I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.

On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
> One of the first search hits is
> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code
> <https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code>
> —Barry
>
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, [hidden email] wrote:
>
>     Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s
> proprietary info.
>
>
>
>     How’s that for government transparency!

--
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gepr

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by Tom Johnson

And to make matters worse, we won't be able to trust the Census 2020 data *either* because they're cutting it off early:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/us/supreme-court-census.html

All models are always wrong. Applying the population divisor, which is a wrong model, over the top of your wrong model (cases) produces an even more wrong, wrong model. But false models atop false models sure is USEFUL.

Which brings me to a post I thought about making last week: ad hominem *as* critical thinking. I may find the time to make that post if I'm lucky.

On 11/2/20 11:46 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
> Nick:
> I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis. Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019. ZIP 87507 has about 50k. Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator when looking at cases by ZIP.

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

thompnickson2

Re: numbers

Oh, Gawd. I better put my proton shields up. Glen is grumpy.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:57 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

And to make matters worse, we won't be able to trust the Census 2020 data *either* because they're cutting it off early:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/us/supreme-court-census.html

All models are always wrong. Applying the population divisor, which is a wrong model, over the top of your wrong model (cases) produces an even more wrong, wrong model. But false models atop false models sure is USEFUL.

Which brings me to a post I thought about making last week: ad hominem *as* critical thinking. I may find the time to make that post if I'm lucky.

On 11/2/20 11:46 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
> Nick:
> I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis. Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019. ZIP 87507 has about 50k. Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator when looking at cases by ZIP.

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Carl Tollander

Re: numbers

In reply to this post by thompnickson2

I invite those who think 87507 to be "poor" to take a Sunday drive through Tierra Contenta or south of the airport/west of 599. Say, out by the polo field.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't know why "100". In a sane world, that would be the population in hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million, which seems a bit heavy. In any case, for those of you following case increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as the most recent per day 7 day increments. . The second two columns are deviation are expectation and deviation. No surprises there, except that there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course. 507 has a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that it's better for your health to be rich than poor. Caveat emptor: these calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.

501 - 15,147 - 13% - 02.3c - 4 -
505 - 31,013 - 25% - 06.0   - 8 -
506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +
507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++
508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5 - 5 -

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app:

E.g. for my zip code (98502):

https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=&parameterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html

I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.

On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
> One of the first search hits is
> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code
> <https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code>
> —Barry
>
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, [hidden email] wrote:
>
>     Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s
> proprietary info.
>
>
>
>     How’s that for government transparency!

--
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