flu versus COVID

[Prof David West]

Steve - the problem is unambiguously defining exactly which group of people we are talking about. It is the same problem that constantly arises in discussions about political bases and the constituents thereof, versus the radical fringe elements.

Your "Righty" friends, fully prepared for the Zombie Apocalypse, like almost everyone I know that is affiliated with a "militia" are all bluster. They will not seek out a fight.

Ranchers and farmers will be too busy dealing with a drought to take up arms against anyone. Plus they are mostly fatalists at heart and will "simply wait it out."

The police will be all to willing to wade into the fray, just as they did in the sixties. Ammon Bundy, BTW, supports BLM because his decidedly "Righty / Trumpy" faction sees BLM as confronting a common enemy - the State in the form of the police.

The "flight" has already begun. Couer d'ALene Idaho was, last year, the number one destination of Californians who identify as other than Democratic. There will be conflicts for sure, but along the axes of wealth and effete lifestyle, not politics. Within a ten square mile area of where I live, I can name more than twenty families building homes to "escape" California and its politics. And yes, I know, anecdotes are not evidence.

Those who will not / cannot accept four more years will take to the streets in mass protest. Unfortunately, it seems like those protests cannot occur any longer without arson and property destruction. And guess what the response to that will be.

davew

On Sun, Sep 13, 2020, at 9:20 AM, Steve Smith wrote:

Dave -

I am trying to take your disclaimer at face value:

Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions.

but there is something about your analysis of who will fight and who will flight that seems inverted:

	A) If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day.

	B) If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose.

I don't have Glen's skill at proper Steelman construction, so what I present here is probably an amalgam of straw and steel...

A) I see no strong evidence of the conservative/right being prone to "flight".... "hunker down" maybe, but not "flight".   The Donald has been *very* proud and out loud to list off "his people", the "strong people"...  law enforcement, military, farmers, ranchers, construction workers, and aping Putin, "the bikers".   He touts the second amendment with vigor while using the first amendment as a shield of convenience... which does not sound a bit like "flight".   Most of his supporters I know personally have at least a little more swagger and bluster and implied intimidation than their counterparts...   they show no shame around gerrymandering, voter suppression (playing "poll observer" while sporting assault-style weapons?), and celebrating a thin win via electoral college vs popular vote as a "Mandate" (in 2000 and 2016).  None of this reads to me as the ingredients for "flight" unless this is all bluff? 

 

As to flooding Deseret (Utah and surrounds all the way to the Canadian border through Idaho and bits of Eastern OR, Western CO and northern AZ?)...  I can't imagine the folks already there welcoming more than their "friends and family" and maybe a handful of *their* friends and family, but only as long as they bring more dry goods and ammo than average?

B) Traditionally I see very little propensity for violence among the Liberal Elite and Liberal Snowflakes who "hate Trump"... I have heard over the decades (starting with the 2000 debacle?) plenty more liberals threatening to "move to Canada" as a response to what they see (for pretty good reason) as an injustice and an aberration/undermining of Democracy, than Conservatives...  (though I have a few Righty friends who have created hidey-holes in third world countries where they can hoard their food and guns in the event of an Apocalypse).  

The social unrest whose sharp tip has included direct confrontatation of Law Enforcement reflects the distance to which people have been pushed into a corner.    Compare a Waco or Ruby Ridge or similar to the hundreds of police-brutality (unto murder) cases that BLM is in reaction to.   I was shocked by the *singular* shooting of a Right Winger in Oregon by a Left winger, and not at all surprised when the Left Winger got shot dead during apprehension while the *several* Right-Wing militia types who shot protestors armed with at most, a skateboard, were taken very gently and in some cases allowed to walk away.  Maybe your embedding in a violent/reactionary leftist movement in the '60s informs you more to the likelihood or nature of what a leftist reaction might look like.  I think it is probably *good* that my gun-nut friends with MAGA hats (nearly always screwed on way too tight) might be a  little afraid that those they would like to intimidate with violence or the threat of it might have their own venomous bite if cornered.  

Maybe a virulent mass uprising by the Left (or to me "center") if Trump and his cronies mangle the election into something unrecognizeable is aspirational on my part... but I can't think of a single Righty friend or acquaintance of mine who doesn't own a gun or 10 and way too much ammunition for anything but a zombie apocalypse, and has made intimations that they are itching to use them.   This is VERY rare in my righty friends... almost to nil.

- Steve

On 9/13/20 8:47 AM, Prof David West wrote:

The entire campaign, as near as I can tell, is nothing except scare the crap out of your base in order to defeat the other guy. Both sides are guilty, albeit with differences in luridness.

Once you have appealed to, and convinced your side of, fear and loathing, there is no easy off-switch. This pretty much guarantees that the losing side will react to the results from fear and nothing else. The fractures will become permanent precisely because they are grounded in irrationality and there is no path back from the brink.

The classical response to fear is "fight or flight."

If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day.


If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose.

Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions.

davew


On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 4:17 PM, Steve Smith wrote:

Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe
just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having
Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters
in his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this
country, I think the question of whether humans in general and US
Citizens at this time, are capable of anything outside of an A)
Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy thinly disguised as a Representative
Democracy.  

I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or
another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a
story where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or
more of their trigger-issues.

And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear:   As a registered DTR
(declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage
of nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the
Republican Party of New Mexico...  maybe they don't waste the postage on
registered Democrats?  Mary doesn't get these.    You can imagine the
crap they insert into their imagery and verbage, but  if I didn't have
any other source of information (or more to the point, primary evidence
of Biden and his allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and
they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the
streets themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that
the fires in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and
blowing the embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake
into safety if Democrats would let them).  The photos are perspective
foreshortened and blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown
(e.g. Biden, Bernie, Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way
Trump stalked and loomed over Clinton at the debates.

I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well... except
for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come
around to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the
Dems, yet very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies
right back into power (just because?).   Sturgis the community was only
60% against holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about
10-20% of the usual attendees declined this year.   That doesn't sound
like fear to me.   I don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them
up!" even though it seems likely that The entire Trump family , his
staff (present and deprecated) and some of his cabinet might well be
subject to criminal charges without the current obfuscation,
misdirection, and direct obstruction the (implied/implicit?) power of
the office of the President seems to allow for, hiding the evidence.  

I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very
scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he
promised to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years...   The
Trumpsters like to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right
(and Left and Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is
offended by anything (much less everything) Trump does.  

My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the
significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat
factions.   The Lincoln Project might be the most well
organized/funded.   THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and
I"m sure plenty of LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose
I'm just glad I don't have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?)
overstating Trumps outrageous behaviour.  

The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be interesting...

- Steve

On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this.   But mostly people are morons.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID

Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be."

I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to have become the default for setting policy  — fear of pornography to justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down.

I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating.

davew




On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote:

Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will 
suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime.

I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't 
checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay 
out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled 
[in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth 
status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from 
consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making 
attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements.

Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes.

When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as EricS 
pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to render 
opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of such in 
light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the pressure on CDC 
rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the victim makes your 
post incredible disinformation, even if (or especially if) the first 
part of your post is factual. It's a typical abuse of facts to foster 
a false narrative.

But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to 
such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is 
the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer 
because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the
*content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was 
offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's small 
appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, and false 
narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's impossible to 
harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our echo-chamber 
dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the bar" to be 
included in our in-group.


On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote:

Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR.

IFR = infection fatality rate
CFR = case fatality rate

A "case"requires symptoms.

Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3%

COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher 
percent] and a CFR of 2-3%

For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures.

Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down.

There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu).

In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies.

Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about.

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

Dave writes:

 

< Those who will not / cannot accept four more years will take to the streets in mass protest. Unfortunately, it seems like those protests cannot occur any longer without arson and property destruction. And guess what the response to that will be. >

 

At this rate, it will all be ignited anyway due to climate change.  First Australia, now the west coast of the U.S.  All these people with their fragile identities and silly little politics arguing amongst themselves about where to put walls and what letters to put after their name.  Maybe we should notice that Mother Nature is getting pissed.

 

Marcus

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[Robert J. Cordingley]

All

So... I have to suggest to the locals, see 350santafe.org, everyone else see 350.org for a local chapter. There's a lot of work to do and lots of skill and expertise required.

Lurking Robert

On 9/13/20 12:29 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

Dave writes:

 

< Those who will not / cannot accept four more years will take to the streets in mass protest. Unfortunately, it seems like those protests cannot occur any longer without arson and property destruction. And guess what the response to that will be. >

 

At this rate, it will all be ignited anyway due to climate change.  First Australia, now the west coast of the U.S.  All these people with their fragile identities and silly little politics arguing amongst themselves about where to put walls and what letters to put after their name.  Maybe we should notice that Mother Nature is getting pissed.

 

Marcus

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[Steve Smith]

> It's also important to note that conservatives tend to feel/see fear
> more prominently than those open to new experiences. Marcus' point
> about reactive grievance is an indicator. It's not the conservative
> tendency to be afraid that generates the grievance culture, though.
> Conservative fear is well-placed for things like hardening networks,
> computer security, etc. ... domains where it's necessary to have some
> serious threat thinkers on the team. What generates grievance culture
> is *laziness*, the inability to continue working on the problem, a
> giving up, throwing up one's hands and yelling about liberals or "bad
> neighborhoods".
>
> Dave's fear is right. We should all, always, be Antifa, anti-fascist,
> in whatever forms fascism might take. But in fighting fascism, it pays
> to stay on point, to talk about the work, to do the work, and not spin
> off into rants that do no useful work. So, the 1st part of Dave's
> post, identifying the difference between IFR and CFR is good work. The
> 2nd part is self-indulgent ranting. And to be clear, I'm a big fan of
> self-indulgent ranting, obviously ... as long as we all recognize it
> when we see it ... especially when I do it.
>
> I'm very happy they came down hard on Reinoehl, even if the Marshals
> and Sheriffs tend to be right wingers. To all those who'd fight
> fascism, leave your guns at home. To paraphrase Marcus, the individual
> doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things. So, carrying a hand
> gun to "protect yourself", even if it's because you have kids at home,
> remains stupid, whoever carries it.

All good points, as usual... and I realize that *most* of my offerings
here are self-indulgent rantings (or ravings)...  

Regarding Reinoehl, I'm not against "swift intervention" to prevent him
(or others inspired by him) from "taking their guns to town" again, some
more.  The trope of "swift justice" however, has no place in the culture
I want to live in.  Swift intervention yes, and timely justice yes, but
"swift justice" is just another name for lynching and vigilanteism.  
What I am alluding to is that so far all I've seen referenced to his
"apprehension" is that he "produced a weapon" which in modern vernacular
could mean anything from pointing a firearm at the officers directly (in
the open or from cover) to walking out with his weapon held high in the
air, ready to drop it or place it on the ground (as instructed?), to
having a belt knife that he didn't think to remove before trying to
surrender.    They didn't say "fired upon"  or"returned fire" or even
"brandished a weapon", they said "produced a weapon".   Too many
euphemisms to sort through?

If the ABQ PD had handled the NM Militia at the downtown shooting (Right
against Left) a month or so ago, they might all have been dead since
they were all "presenting weapons" (still in holsters or on slings) when
the cops arrived.   I'm not advocating police abuse against Militias,
just noting how much harder it is to get shot by cop if you are wearing
fatigues or camo, have a military style weapons, and a flag on your
sleeve and maybe a MAGA hat.

Similarly, the Chicago Police might have as easily SWATted Kyle
Rittenhouse's (parents?) house and shot him (and anyone else there?) if
they displayed any kind of resistance (especially if it appeared they
had a gun, which I suspect Kyle and maybe his family were fond of having
"handy" in case someone busted down their doors).     Maybe someone in
that mix (Kyle, his friends and family, or the Chicago Police) went way
out of their way to make sure that didn't happen.

Apparently Reinoehl (or the folks trying to apprehend him) weren't as
careful about that.  I haven't followed up on Reinoehl nearly enough,
depending too much on "push media" to tell me what they think I need to
know.

- Steve

>
>
> On 9/13/20 8:20 AM, Steve Smith wrote:
>> Dave -
>>
>> I am trying to take your disclaimer at face value:
>>
>>     /Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. /
>>
>> but there is something about your analysis of who will fight and who
>> will flight that seems inverted:
>>
>>     A) If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the
>> losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young
>> envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled
>> with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes
>> of the day.
>>
>>     B) If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the
>> losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police,
>> but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any
>> vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a
>> cause and lacking any kind of purpose.
>>
>> I don't have Glen's skill at proper Steelman construction, so what I
>> present here is probably an amalgam of straw and steel...
>>
>>     A) I see no strong evidence of the conservative/right being prone
>> to "flight".... "hunker down" maybe, but not "flight".   The Donald
>> has been *very* proud and out loud to list off "his people", the
>> "strong people"...  law enforcement, military, farmers, ranchers,
>> construction workers, and aping Putin, "the bikers".   He touts the
>> second amendment with vigor while using the first amendment as a
>> shield of convenience... which does not sound a bit like "flight".  
>> Most of his supporters I know personally have at least a little more
>> swagger and bluster and implied intimidation than their
>> counterparts...   they show no shame around gerrymandering, voter
>> suppression (playing "poll observer" while sporting assault-style
>> weapons?), and celebrating a thin win via electoral college vs
>> popular vote as a "Mandate" (in 2000 and 2016).  None of this reads
>> to me as the ingredients for "flight" unless this is all bluff?
>>
>>     As to flooding Deseret (Utah and surrounds all the way to the
>> Canadian border through Idaho and bits of Eastern OR, Western CO and
>> northern AZ?)...  I can't imagine the folks already there welcoming
>> more than their "friends and family" and maybe a handful of *their*
>> friends and family, but only as long as they bring more dry goods and
>> ammo than average?
>>
>>     B) Traditionally I see very little propensity for violence among
>> the /Liberal Elite/ and /Liberal Snowflakes /who "hate Trump"... I
>> have heard over the decades (starting with the 2000 debacle?) plenty
>> more liberals threatening to "move to Canada" as a response to what
>> they see (for pretty good reason) as an injustice and an
>> aberration/undermining of Democracy, than Conservatives...  (though I
>> have a few Righty friends who have created hidey-holes in third world
>> countries where they can hoard their food and guns in the event of an
>> Apocalypse).
>>
>>     The social unrest whose sharp tip has included direct
>> confrontatation of Law Enforcement reflects the distance to which
>> people have been pushed into a corner.    Compare a Waco or Ruby
>> Ridge or similar to the hundreds of police-brutality (unto murder)
>> cases that BLM is in reaction to.   I was shocked by the *singular*
>> shooting of a Right Winger in Oregon by a Left winger, and not at all
>> surprised when the Left Winger got shot dead during apprehension
>> while the *several* Right-Wing militia types who shot protestors
>> armed with at most, a skateboard, were taken very gently and in some
>> cases allowed to walk away.  Maybe your embedding in a
>> violent/reactionary leftist movement in the '60s informs you more to
>> the likelihood or nature of what a leftist reaction might look like. 
>> I think it is probably *good* that my gun-nut friends with MAGA hats
>> (nearly always screwed on way too tight) might be a  little afraid
>> that those they would like to intimidate with violence or the
>>     threat of it might have their own venomous bite if cornered.
>>
>> Maybe a virulent mass uprising by the Left (or to me "center") if
>> Trump and his cronies mangle the election into something
>> unrecognizeable is aspirational on my part... but I can't think of a
>> single Righty friend or acquaintance of mine who doesn't own a gun or
>> 10 and way too much ammunition for anything but a zombie apocalypse,
>> and has made intimations that they are itching to use them.   This is
>> VERY rare in my righty friends... almost to nil.
>>
>> - Steve
>>
>> On 9/13/20 8:47 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>>> The entire campaign, as near as I can tell, is nothing except scare
>>> the crap out of your base in order to defeat the other guy. Both
>>> sides are guilty, albeit with differences in luridness.
>>>
>>> Once you have appealed to, and convinced your side of, fear and
>>> loathing, there is no easy off-switch. This pretty much guarantees
>>> that the losing side will react to the results from fear and nothing
>>> else. The fractures will become permanent precisely because they are
>>> grounded in irrationality and there is no path back from the brink.
>>>
>>> The classical response to fear is "fight or flight."
>>>
>>> If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the
>>> losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young
>>> envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled
>>> with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural
>>> themes of the day.
>>>
>>>
>>> If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing
>>> side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but
>>> also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any
>>> vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a
>>> cause and lacking any kind of purpose.
>>>
>>> Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions.
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[Steve Smith]

Dave -

Steve - the problem is unambiguously defining exactly which group of people we are talking about. It is the same problem that constantly arises in discussions about political bases and the constituents thereof, versus the radical fringe elements.

I agree...

Your "Righty" friends, fully prepared for the Zombie Apocalypse, like almost everyone I know that is affiliated with a "militia" are all bluster. They will not seek out a fight.

For most that is true...  but maybe not before pulling a Kyle Rittenhouse... one of my neighbors who I like and have a lot of respect for in many dimensions has a 14 year old son who handles his wide range of big-boys-toys with a lot of respect, but sadly I can imagine with just the wrong tweaking, him "taking a gun to town", and while they are all well locked in safes, they have a plethora of them, and no lack of ammunition. 

Ranchers and farmers will be too busy dealing with a drought to take up arms against anyone. Plus they are mostly fatalists at heart and will "simply wait it out."

My community-of-origin (living there from age 5-12) were all hard-working ranchers and sawyers and other folks who got dirty for a living... the local bar owner and the grocer were probably the only ones who didn't literally "sweat" for a living.   One of the crustiest old cowboys I knew (father of a friend) was captured in an oral history before he died acknowledging that while out on horseback he was always "packing".   He had a tiny (I know the model well) Sears and Roebuck 7 shot .22 pistol loaded with snake-shot *specifically* for the very rare rattlesnake he might encounter and feel the need to dispatch to protect his horse (narrow trail?)... he only used it twice.   Another friend's father showed up on national TV in the 80s with a pair of nickel-plated model-1911 Automatics in shoulder holsters confronting the USFS, US Marshalls, etc.   Ammon Bundy style, claiming they "had no right" to enter *his property* which in fact was federal land for which he had a permit to graze cattle but who had been out of compliance with the terms for some time and refused access to the local officials.   Guess which one I have more respect for?

The police will be all to willing to wade into the fray, just as they did in the sixties. Ammon Bundy, BTW, supports BLM because his decidedly "Righty / Trumpy" faction sees BLM as confronting a common enemy - the State in the form of the police.

I have a friend who was on the line in Kent State... on the National Guard side.   He didn't shoot anyone, but he says it still haunts him to this day that he might have.

It is a sad fact that my tiny "spur" of a dirt road with 3 other homes had to be given a proper name (no more Rural Route address) for 9-11 emergency reasons... it got named "Bundy Road" about 15 years ago without my ever knowing it was up for naming.   So I tend to explain it as "Bundy Road, like Al or Ted" but have taken to adding "Al or Ted or maybe Ammon".  

We are currently in a "feud" with the Bureau of Reclamation, the local Pueblo, and the Prime Contractor on the major water project underway to move (most) everyone from private wells to "city water".   Our 4 remote homes get the pleasure of having a huge industrial project involving infiltration wells and pumping station in our back yard to feed a system many don't want and will never reach us (with processed, treated water) anyway.  It was sited out of sight/sound from us (and everyone else) during the public input phase, but a minor tweak pushed it into our front yards without further notice. I am fatalistic about the project but my neighbors are exquisitely angry at all of the above and out of solidarity I am supporting them as best I can.  

The project is terribly invasive to them (I have an 8' tall adobe courtyard wall and trees, they are in very contemporary/modern styled homes with huge picture windows facing the site, etc.) and after several rounds of the BofR and others mistaking our private drive for a public right-of-way, the project backed off to only needing to "trespass" on my property.   To avoid trespass with me they would have to move a power pole and rebuild a fence and regrade a road, they won't admit how costly/delaying that would be and have kept making promises and wheedling to get me to grant them free access.   They agreed originally (3 months ago) to pay for a privacy fence for the neighbors, reducing dust, sound, visual (both ways, cuz my neighbors all have lots of expensive toys they are sure everyone is planning to steal from them), intrusion.  I granted a 3 month temporary easement based on that concept, but when the estimate came in (who knew 8' coyote fence cost $100/lf?) the construction company balked and claimed they had never "committed to anything".  And then had the temerity to be offended when I wasn't ready to renew the easement.   They can squeak most construction trucks in without trespass, but cranes and concrete trucks and other heavy equipment really needs "a new road without a power pole in the way" or a legal easement from me.   The savings to the project of NOT moving the pole and cutting a road has to exceed the fence cost, not even counting the delays implied.   BUT they don't want to set a precedent, etc... so came back with an offer to plant trees along the fenceline (as an expansion to the reforestation they already have to do in the Bosque) which we accepted, pending approval of their specific plans and making sure *we* could water them through the 4-6 year required to get big trees into the water table here.   They have another month of temporary easement to come up with a good "plan" and I'm expecting a lame/lowball response and suspect they are just "kicking the can down the road", but we will see.  

The bottom line is that 2 of the other 3 houses might easily have come to armed confrontation if the Feds and the Pueblo and the Construction Company had continued to attempt to trespass on *their* land, and I feel like I"m getting a hairy eyeball from them half of the time because I *have* given legal easement, albeit temporary AND with the quid-pro-quo of some concessions around privacy/etc.  I keep expecting to see BIA, Pueblo, Sherrif, State Police out there any month now.  Some of them voted for Johnson/Weld last time, but without that choice, I'm expecting a straight MAGA ticket all the way, down the line.  But I'm not angry at them, or even "skeered of" them, but I am sorry for them insofar as those attitudes go.   I don't know if they even know my politics, excepting that I'm a vegetarian and think "guns are for sissies and that a Harley isn't a Motorcycle and Ford is not the only truck brand".  I still bring them excess eggs and tomatoes and squash and am ready to help them any way I can, and trust they would do the same for me, but not sure if I put up a BLM or Biden/Harris sign how friendly they would be  My Buttigeig/Bernie stickers on my truck may be too subdued.<TMI, TMI, TMI>

The "flight" has already begun. Couer d'ALene Idaho was, last year, the number one destination of Californians who identify as other than Democratic. There will be conflicts for sure, but along the axes of wealth and effete lifestyle, not politics. Within a ten square mile area of where I live, I can name more than twenty families building homes to "escape" California and its politics. And yes, I know, anecdotes are not evidence.

I'll see your anecdote and offer you my own.  I have a good friend in Spokane who teaches the children of those folks moving in (and already in) Couer d'Alene at the college level (he commuted 45 mins each way before COVID).   Many come to him from a home-school environment, most come with a strong suspicion of "Science" and while none have declared "Flat-Earth", many declare that "Science is a cult/religion" and are pretty strong Creationists.   He teaches an advanced lower-division Physics course where he's trying to imbue his students with "Scientific Thinking".  He's pretty confident that every year he's taken in 40-60 students who were deeply leery of him and his subject and turned out *most* of them with a healthy understanding why it doesn't have to be an either-or, that they can learn the scientific method and study math and physics and even taboo subjects like paleontology and evolution without losing their faith in the Bible ("if it ain't King James, it ain't Bible!").   He has even had to ask one last year to "leave his guns at home" since the school itself doesn't allow open-carry, and this young man thought that didn't mean him.   With the new blanket "concealed carry" in Idaho, he's thankful to not have to be wondering which purse, backpack, or parka is "packing" in his classroom (he's doing 100% remote teaching even though he much prefers in-person).

But that isn't the clap-back anecdote... just color for framing.   A couple of weeks ago he went to northern Idaho (near the CA border) to visit a friend who moved there 20+ years ago to escape the rat race of California himself.   When he moved there, he felt there was a bit of an antagonisticly "individualistic" attitude but he is a live-and-let-live kinda guy, and integrated well into the "community" which was significantly "summer retreats" for most.   In the last 5 years, he says many of those summer homes have become full-time homes as those people retired or sold to people such as you describe.   He still wants to be "live and let live" but the anecdote armatures around his experience that the few "wild west" characters packing a .45 on their hip and maybe a deer rifle in their pickup, have been swamped out by modern camoed-up, open-carry weekend warriors in expensive SUVs/Hummers, etc. with oversized flags flapping from pickup beds, etc.   There is a LOT of loud engine noise in the forest from off road vehicles, ATVs and a LOT of gunshots, some clearly entire clips unloaded fast as possible from a semi-auto (into *what* kind of backstop?).    The conversations at the local cafe/store/bar have gone from "country lifestyle" things about forest fires, pickup trucks, weather and hunting prospects to trash-talking the places they came from (a lot from Southern California).   He claims that many are self-identified "Retired LEO" who "moved up there because they are tired of all the XXs and YYs and the snowflake liberal P*****s", etc. (XX and YY => pick your racist name).  As an old white hippy that could be mistaken for a mountain man or a biker, he knows he blends in (and owns guns and a pickup truck himself) but his wife (also an old hippy) who is a health care worker now only goes straight from home to work and back and patently does NOT feel comfortable among this new (or newly emboldened?) crowd.   She still has a few friends she is comfortable around, but it definitely went from "live and let live" to something a LOT more aggressive.  My friend who has been visiting there for roughly 10 years every summer has seen heard this change himself, but they live it.  The change in demographic might just be the wave of baby-boomers retiring or it might have something to do with the 2016 election.    I think William Gibson uses the term "Ameristan" to describe this kind of right-wing Utopia-in-the-making?

I'm also surprised that you are comfortable with the Californication of Utah?   Private property and all says anyone can sell to anyone and anyone can buy from anyone (ignoring redlining practices).   It *is* beautiful country and the new "telecommute" standards that came with COVID do suggest that lots of urban/suburban folks may well move to the country for one reason or another.  

Those who will not / cannot accept four more years will take to the streets in mass protest. Unfortunately, it seems like those protests cannot occur any longer without arson and property destruction. And guess what the response to that will be.

Military-geared, unmarked (presumably) federal officers grabbing protestors off the streets into unmarked vans, holding them in undisclosed locations without charge for as long as they dare?  17 year olds with high capacity semi-autos driving in from out of state, shooting protestors to "help keep law and order"?   Sounds about right.   Doesn't sound like a Right-Wing Utopia either, unless of course it is only Lefties being snatched and shot....

(Un)fortunately right now Portland (and the rest of us) has bigger problems (as Glen pointed out) than the amount of damage some protestors leading to some looting and vandalism, or a convoy of Gun-Nuts threatening (shooting at) them with their trucks (and guns).    My daughter living there doesn't know anyone evacuated yet, but plenty under evacuation warnings, and is preparing to double up and host a family if it becomes necessary and I'm preparing to offer the same if it comes to that.   We are a wealthy (and once-upon-a-time) generous culture who can do a lot more positive things for one another than it seems like we do these days.  New Mexico absorbed a number of families after Katrina (and more acutely horses and dogs and other pets/animals that refugees couldn't maintain while waiting to return, rebuild).  

We really don't need a civil war OR 4 more years of an acutely eroding culture/Democracy.   Vote early, Vote often (as Donald suggests)!

- Steve

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[Marcus G. Daniels]

Steve writes:

< He claims that many are self-identified "Retired LEO" who "moved up there because they are tired of all the XXs and YYs and the snowflake liberal P*****s", etc. (XX and YY => pick your racist name).  >

Was Reinoehl one of those?   Maybe they’d like that more.

Marcus

 

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