flu versus COVID
Locked
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Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR.
IFR = infection fatality rate CFR = case fatality rate A "case"requires symptoms. Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3% COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher percent] and a CFR of 2-3% For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures. Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down. There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu). In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies. Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about. davew - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime.
I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements. Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes. When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as EricS pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to render opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of such in light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the pressure on CDC rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the victim makes your post incredible disinformation, even if (or especially if) the first part of your post is factual. It's a typical abuse of facts to foster a false narrative. But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's small appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, and false narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's impossible to harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our echo-chamber dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the bar" to be included in our in-group. On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote: > Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR. > > IFR = infection fatality rate > CFR = case fatality rate > > A "case"requires symptoms. > > Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3% > > COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher percent] and a CFR of 2-3% > > For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures. > > Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down. > > There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu). > > In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies. > > Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about. - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be."
I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to have become the default for setting policy — fear of pornography to justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down. I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating. davew On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote: > Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will > suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime. > > I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't > checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay out > the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled [in]credible > because of any single act/statement or even the truth status of one or > several acts/statements. Credibility comes from consistent *care*, > including revisiting things later and making attempts to abut or > correct previous acts/statements. > > Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes. > > When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as EricS > pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to render > opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of such in > light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the pressure on CDC > rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the victim makes your > post incredible disinformation, even if (or especially if) the first > part of your post is factual. It's a typical abuse of facts to foster a > false narrative. > > But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to > such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is > the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer > because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the > *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was > offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's small > appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, and false > narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's impossible to harden > ourselves to such risk without holing up in our echo-chamber dungeons, > surrounded by others who've "jumped over the bar" to be included in our > in-group. > > > On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote: > > Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR. > > > > IFR = infection fatality rate > > CFR = case fatality rate > > > > A "case"requires symptoms. > > > > Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3% > > > > COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher percent] and a CFR of 2-3% > > > > For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures. > > > > Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down. > > > > There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu). > > > > In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies. > > > > Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about. > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this. But mostly people are morons.
-----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM To: [hidden email] Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be." I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to have become the default for setting policy — fear of pornography to justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down. I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating. davew On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote: > Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will > suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime. > > I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't > checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay > out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled > [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth > status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from > consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making > attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements. > > Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes. > > When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as EricS > pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to render > opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of such in > light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the pressure on CDC > rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the victim makes your > post incredible disinformation, even if (or especially if) the first > part of your post is factual. It's a typical abuse of facts to foster > a false narrative. > > But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to > such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is > the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer > because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the > *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was > offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's small > appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, and false > narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's impossible to > harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our echo-chamber > dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the bar" to be > included in our in-group. > > > On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote: > > Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR. > > > > IFR = infection fatality rate > > CFR = case fatality rate > > > > A "case"requires symptoms. > > > > Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3% > > > > COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher > > percent] and a CFR of 2-3% > > > > For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures. > > > > Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down. > > > > There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu). > > > > In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies. > > > > Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about. > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn > GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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In reply to this post by Prof David West
Are you saying that 95% to 97% of flu infections are asymptomatic (“cases” vs “infections”)? What is a source for this? —Barry On 12 Sep 2020, at 10:44, Prof David West wrote:
- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe
just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters in his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this country, I think the question of whether humans in general and US Citizens at this time, are capable of anything outside of an A) Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy thinly disguised as a Representative Democracy. I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a story where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or more of their trigger-issues. And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear: As a registered DTR (declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage of nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the Republican Party of New Mexico... maybe they don't waste the postage on registered Democrats? Mary doesn't get these. You can imagine the crap they insert into their imagery and verbage, but if I didn't have any other source of information (or more to the point, primary evidence of Biden and his allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the streets themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that the fires in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and blowing the embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake into safety if Democrats would let them). The photos are perspective foreshortened and blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown (e.g. Biden, Bernie, Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way Trump stalked and loomed over Clinton at the debates. I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well... except for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come around to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the Dems, yet very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies right back into power (just because?). Sturgis the community was only 60% against holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about 10-20% of the usual attendees declined this year. That doesn't sound like fear to me. I don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them up!" even though it seems likely that The entire Trump family , his staff (present and deprecated) and some of his cabinet might well be subject to criminal charges without the current obfuscation, misdirection, and direct obstruction the (implied/implicit?) power of the office of the President seems to allow for, hiding the evidence. I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he promised to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years... The Trumpsters like to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right (and Left and Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is offended by anything (much less everything) Trump does. My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat factions. The Lincoln Project might be the most well organized/funded. THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and I"m sure plenty of LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose I'm just glad I don't have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?) overstating Trumps outrageous behaviour. The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be interesting... - Steve On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this. But mostly people are morons. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West > Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM > To: [hidden email] > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID > > Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be." > > I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to have become the default for setting policy — fear of pornography to justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down. > > I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating. > > davew > > > > > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote: >> Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will >> suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime. >> >> I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't >> checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay >> out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled >> [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth >> status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from >> consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making >> attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements. >> >> Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes. >> >> When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as EricS >> pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to render >> opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of such in >> light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the pressure on CDC >> rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the victim makes your >> post incredible disinformation, even if (or especially if) the first >> part of your post is factual. It's a typical abuse of facts to foster >> a false narrative. >> >> But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to >> such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is >> the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer >> because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the >> *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was >> offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's small >> appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, and false >> narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's impossible to >> harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our echo-chamber >> dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the bar" to be >> included in our in-group. >> >> >> On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote: >>> Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR. >>> >>> IFR = infection fatality rate >>> CFR = case fatality rate >>> >>> A "case"requires symptoms. >>> >>> Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3% >>> >>> COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher >>> percent] and a CFR of 2-3% >>> >>> For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures. >>> >>> Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down. >>> >>> There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu). >>> >>> In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies. >>> >>> Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about. >> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn >> GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe >> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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It seems that it would be good to get the MMWR or Mortality and Morbidity Weekly Report. Highly regarded by epidemiologists according to one of the experts on CNN. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 4:17 PM Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote: Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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In reply to this post by Steve Smith
It is the reactive grievance culture that I think needs to be attenuated. Run some diagnostics, analyze, reflect. Or at least find someone new to talk to. Push some different information through that soggy wetware. Appreciate people that are trying to do their job. Consider the possibility that individuals (and that means you, Joe Moron) don't really matter in the big scheme of things. And so on. If nothing else just STFU for a minute, would you? I can totally see the Rick Gates type people: Everyone is guilty and unworthy, so the only thing left to do grab and handful of cash and walk away.
How many dozens of times have I been told to lower the dimensionality of what I am trying to communicate up the management chain? If managers can't grasp a complicated story, the worker bees and especially the Trumper types certainly won't get it either. In my mind democracy is more about defining what is worthy about civilization and culture and finding basic some basic consensus about who we want to be. If that isn't possible, then let's take off the gloves and get to it, you know? The business of running things for the most part has to be delegated, just like almost every service and product we use is delegated to others. -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steve Smith Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 3:17 PM To: [hidden email] Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters in his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this country, I think the question of whether humans in general and US Citizens at this time, are capable of anything outside of an A) Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy thinly disguised as a Representative Democracy. I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a story where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or more of their trigger-issues. And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear: As a registered DTR (declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage of nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the Republican Party of New Mexico... maybe they don't waste the postage on registered Democrats? Mary doesn't get these. You can imagine the crap they insert into their imagery and verbage, but if I didn't have any other source of information (or more to the point, primary evidence of Biden and his allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the streets themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that the fires in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and blowing the embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake into safety if Democrats would let them). The photos are perspective foreshortened and blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown (e.g. Biden, Bernie, Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way Trump stalked and loomed over Clinton at the debates. I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well... except for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come around to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the Dems, yet very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies right back into power (just because?). Sturgis the community was only 60% against holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about 10-20% of the usual attendees declined this year. That doesn't sound like fear to me. I don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them up!" even though it seems likely that The entire Trump family , his staff (present and deprecated) and some of his cabinet might well be subject to criminal charges without the current obfuscation, misdirection, and direct obstruction the (implied/implicit?) power of the office of the President seems to allow for, hiding the evidence. I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he promised to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years... The Trumpsters like to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right (and Left and Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is offended by anything (much less everything) Trump does. My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat factions. The Lincoln Project might be the most well organized/funded. THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and I"m sure plenty of LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose I'm just glad I don't have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?) overstating Trumps outrageous behaviour. The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be interesting... - Steve On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this. But mostly people are morons. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West > Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM > To: [hidden email] > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID > > Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be." > > I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to have become the default for setting policy — fear of pornography to justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down. > > I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating. > > davew > > > > > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote: >> Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will >> suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime. >> >> I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't >> checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay >> out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled >> [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth >> status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from >> consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making >> attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements. >> >> Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes. >> >> When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as >> EricS pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to >> render opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of >> such in light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the >> pressure on CDC rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the >> victim makes your post incredible disinformation, even if (or >> especially if) the first part of your post is factual. It's a typical >> abuse of facts to foster a false narrative. >> >> But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to >> such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is >> the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer >> because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the >> *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was >> offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's >> small appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, >> and false narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's >> impossible to harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our >> echo-chamber dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the >> bar" to be included in our in-group. >> >> >> On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote: >>> Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR. >>> >>> IFR = infection fatality rate >>> CFR = case fatality rate >>> >>> A "case"requires symptoms. >>> >>> Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3% >>> >>> COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher >>> percent] and a CFR of 2-3% >>> >>> For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures. >>> >>> Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down. >>> >>> There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu). >>> >>> In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies. >>> >>> Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about. >> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn >> GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe >> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn > GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn > GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . 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It has become known today that the MMWR has been altered for political reasons. At least they got caught. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 5:11 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote: It is the reactive grievance culture that I think needs to be attenuated. Run some diagnostics, analyze, reflect. Or at least find someone new to talk to. Push some different information through that soggy wetware. Appreciate people that are trying to do their job. Consider the possibility that individuals (and that means you, Joe Moron) don't really matter in the big scheme of things. And so on. If nothing else just STFU for a minute, would you? I can totally see the Rick Gates type people: Everyone is guilty and unworthy, so the only thing left to do grab and handful of cash and walk away. - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Frank, do you have some pointers on the MMWR? Thanks, Tom On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:35 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:
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On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 10:00 PM Tom Johnson <[hidden email]> wrote:
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Tkx. On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 10:03 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:
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The above might be of particular interest. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 10:25 PM Tom Johnson <[hidden email]> wrote:
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In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2
There were previous episodes. But yes. That's the recent news I mentioned to Dave. Here's the article:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/11/exclusive-trump-officials-interfered-with-cdc-reports-on-covid-19-412809 On September 12, 2020 6:35:12 PM PDT, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote: >It has become known today that the MMWR has been altered for political >reasons. At least they got caught. >> > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote: >> >> >> >> When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as >> >> EricS pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to >> >> render opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of >> >> such in light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the >> >> pressure on CDC rank and file is disinformation. -- glen ⛧ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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In reply to this post by Barry MacKichan
Barry, I do not believe I am saying anything other than IFR and CFR are often mixed up. I saw a three paragraph article in a news paper about the confusion between IFR and CFR. I then got the four numbers directly from WHO and CDC press releases. davew On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 2:51 PM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
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In reply to this post by Steve Smith
The entire campaign, as near as I can tell, is nothing except scare the crap out of your base in order to defeat the other guy. Both sides are guilty, albeit with differences in luridness.
Once you have appealed to, and convinced your side of, fear and loathing, there is no easy off-switch. This pretty much guarantees that the losing side will react to the results from fear and nothing else. The fractures will become permanent precisely because they are grounded in irrationality and there is no path back from the brink. The classical response to fear is "fight or flight." If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day. If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose. Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. davew On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 4:17 PM, Steve Smith wrote: > Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe > just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having > Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters > in his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this > country, I think the question of whether humans in general and US > Citizens at this time, are capable of anything outside of an A) > Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy thinly disguised as a Representative > Democracy. > > I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or > another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a > story where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or > more of their trigger-issues. > > And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear: As a registered DTR > (declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage > of nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the > Republican Party of New Mexico... maybe they don't waste the postage on > registered Democrats? Mary doesn't get these. You can imagine the > crap they insert into their imagery and verbage, but if I didn't have > any other source of information (or more to the point, primary evidence > of Biden and his allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and > they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the > streets themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that > the fires in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and > blowing the embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake > into safety if Democrats would let them). The photos are perspective > foreshortened and blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown > (e.g. Biden, Bernie, Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way > Trump stalked and loomed over Clinton at the debates. > > I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well... except > for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come > around to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the > Dems, yet very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies > right back into power (just because?). Sturgis the community was only > 60% against holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about > 10-20% of the usual attendees declined this year. That doesn't sound > like fear to me. I don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them > up!" even though it seems likely that The entire Trump family , his > staff (present and deprecated) and some of his cabinet might well be > subject to criminal charges without the current obfuscation, > misdirection, and direct obstruction the (implied/implicit?) power of > the office of the President seems to allow for, hiding the evidence. > > I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very > scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he > promised to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years... The > Trumpsters like to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right > (and Left and Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is > offended by anything (much less everything) Trump does. > > My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the > significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat > factions. The Lincoln Project might be the most well > organized/funded. THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and > I"m sure plenty of LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose > I'm just glad I don't have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?) > overstating Trumps outrageous behaviour. > > The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be interesting... > > - Steve > > On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > > When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this. But mostly people are morons. > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West > > Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM > > To: [hidden email] > > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID > > > > Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be." > > > > I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to have become the default for setting policy — fear of pornography to justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down. > > > > I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating. > > > > davew > > > > > > > > > > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote: > >> Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will > >> suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime. > >> > >> I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't > >> checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay > >> out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled > >> [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth > >> status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from > >> consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making > >> attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements. > >> > >> Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes. > >> > >> When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as EricS > >> pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to render > >> opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of such in > >> light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the pressure on CDC > >> rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the victim makes your > >> post incredible disinformation, even if (or especially if) the first > >> part of your post is factual. It's a typical abuse of facts to foster > >> a false narrative. > >> > >> But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to > >> such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is > >> the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer > >> because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the > >> *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was > >> offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's small > >> appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, and false > >> narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's impossible to > >> harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our echo-chamber > >> dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the bar" to be > >> included in our in-group. > >> > >> > >> On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote: > >>> Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR. > >>> > >>> IFR = infection fatality rate > >>> CFR = case fatality rate > >>> > >>> A "case"requires symptoms. > >>> > >>> Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3% > >>> > >>> COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher > >>> percent] and a CFR of 2-3% > >>> > >>> For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures. > >>> > >>> Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down. > >>> > >>> There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu). > >>> > >>> In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies. > >>> > >>> Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about. > >> > >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn > >> GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe > >> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > >> > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . 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Dave - I am trying to take your disclaimer at face value: Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. but there is something about your analysis of who will fight and who will flight that seems inverted: A) If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day. B) If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose.I don't have Glen's skill at proper Steelman construction, so what I present here is probably an amalgam of straw and steel... A) I see no strong evidence of the conservative/right being prone to "flight".... "hunker down" maybe, but not "flight". The Donald has been *very* proud and out loud to list off "his people", the "strong people"... law enforcement, military, farmers, ranchers, construction workers, and aping Putin, "the bikers". He touts the second amendment with vigor while using the first amendment as a shield of convenience... which does not sound a bit like "flight". Most of his supporters I know personally have at least a little more swagger and bluster and implied intimidation than their counterparts... they show no shame around gerrymandering, voter suppression (playing "poll observer" while sporting assault-style weapons?), and celebrating a thin win via electoral college vs popular vote as a "Mandate" (in 2000 and 2016). None of this reads to me as the ingredients for "flight" unless this is all bluff? Maybe a virulent mass uprising by the Left (or to me "center") if Trump and his cronies mangle the election into something unrecognizeable is aspirational on my part... but I can't think of a single Righty friend or acquaintance of mine who doesn't own a gun or 10 and way too much ammunition for anything but a zombie apocalypse, and has made intimations that they are itching to use them. This is VERY rare in my righty friends... almost to nil. - Steve On 9/13/20 8:47 AM, Prof David West
wrote:
The entire campaign, as near as I can tell, is nothing except scare the crap out of your base in order to defeat the other guy. Both sides are guilty, albeit with differences in luridness. Once you have appealed to, and convinced your side of, fear and loathing, there is no easy off-switch. This pretty much guarantees that the losing side will react to the results from fear and nothing else. The fractures will become permanent precisely because they are grounded in irrationality and there is no path back from the brink. The classical response to fear is "fight or flight." If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day. If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose. Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. davew On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 4:17 PM, Steve Smith wrote:Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters in his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this country, I think the question of whether humans in general and US Citizens at this time, are capable of anything outside of an A) Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy thinly disguised as a Representative Democracy. I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a story where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or more of their trigger-issues. And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear: As a registered DTR (declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage of nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the Republican Party of New Mexico... maybe they don't waste the postage on registered Democrats? Mary doesn't get these. You can imagine the crap they insert into their imagery and verbage, but if I didn't have any other source of information (or more to the point, primary evidence of Biden and his allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the streets themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that the fires in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and blowing the embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake into safety if Democrats would let them). The photos are perspective foreshortened and blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown (e.g. Biden, Bernie, Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way Trump stalked and loomed over Clinton at the debates. I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well... except for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come around to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the Dems, yet very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies right back into power (just because?). Sturgis the community was only 60% against holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about 10-20% of the usual attendees declined this year. That doesn't sound like fear to me. I don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them up!" even though it seems likely that The entire Trump family , his staff (present and deprecated) and some of his cabinet might well be subject to criminal charges without the current obfuscation, misdirection, and direct obstruction the (implied/implicit?) power of the office of the President seems to allow for, hiding the evidence. I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he promised to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years... The Trumpsters like to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right (and Left and Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is offended by anything (much less everything) Trump does. My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat factions. The Lincoln Project might be the most well organized/funded. THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and I"m sure plenty of LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose I'm just glad I don't have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?) overstating Trumps outrageous behaviour. The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be interesting... - Steve On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this. But mostly people are morons. -----Original Message----- From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Prof David West Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM To: [hidden email] Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be." I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to have become the default for setting policy — fear of pornography to justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down. I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating. davew On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote:Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime. I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements. Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes. When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as EricS pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to render opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of such in light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the pressure on CDC rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the victim makes your post incredible disinformation, even if (or especially if) the first part of your post is factual. It's a typical abuse of facts to foster a false narrative. But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's small appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, and false narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's impossible to harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our echo-chamber dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the bar" to be included in our in-group. On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote:Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR. IFR = infection fatality rate CFR = case fatality rate A "case"requires symptoms. Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3% COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher percent] and a CFR of 2-3% For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures. Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down. There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu). In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies. Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about.- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . 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It's also important to note that conservatives tend to feel/see fear more prominently than those open to new experiences. Marcus' point about reactive grievance is an indicator. It's not the conservative tendency to be afraid that generates the grievance culture, though. Conservative fear is well-placed for things like hardening networks, computer security, etc. ... domains where it's necessary to have some serious threat thinkers on the team. What generates grievance culture is *laziness*, the inability to continue working on the problem, a giving up, throwing up one's hands and yelling about liberals or "bad neighborhoods".
Dave's fear is right. We should all, always, be Antifa, anti-fascist, in whatever forms fascism might take. But in fighting fascism, it pays to stay on point, to talk about the work, to do the work, and not spin off into rants that do no useful work. So, the 1st part of Dave's post, identifying the difference between IFR and CFR is good work. The 2nd part is self-indulgent ranting. And to be clear, I'm a big fan of self-indulgent ranting, obviously ... as long as we all recognize it when we see it ... especially when I do it. I'm very happy they came down hard on Reinoehl, even if the Marshals and Sheriffs tend to be right wingers. To all those who'd fight fascism, leave your guns at home. To paraphrase Marcus, the individual doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things. So, carrying a hand gun to "protect yourself", even if it's because you have kids at home, remains stupid, whoever carries it. On 9/13/20 8:20 AM, Steve Smith wrote: > Dave - > > I am trying to take your disclaimer at face value: > > /Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. / > > but there is something about your analysis of who will fight and who will flight that seems inverted: > > A) If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day. > > B) If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose. > > I don't have Glen's skill at proper Steelman construction, so what I present here is probably an amalgam of straw and steel... > > A) I see no strong evidence of the conservative/right being prone to "flight".... "hunker down" maybe, but not "flight". The Donald has been *very* proud and out loud to list off "his people", the "strong people"... law enforcement, military, farmers, ranchers, construction workers, and aping Putin, "the bikers". He touts the second amendment with vigor while using the first amendment as a shield of convenience... which does not sound a bit like "flight". Most of his supporters I know personally have at least a little more swagger and bluster and implied intimidation than their counterparts... they show no shame around gerrymandering, voter suppression (playing "poll observer" while sporting assault-style weapons?), and celebrating a thin win via electoral college vs popular vote as a "Mandate" (in 2000 and 2016). None of this reads to me as the ingredients for "flight" unless this is all bluff? > > As to flooding Deseret (Utah and surrounds all the way to the Canadian border through Idaho and bits of Eastern OR, Western CO and northern AZ?)... I can't imagine the folks already there welcoming more than their "friends and family" and maybe a handful of *their* friends and family, but only as long as they bring more dry goods and ammo than average? > > B) Traditionally I see very little propensity for violence among the /Liberal Elite/ and /Liberal Snowflakes /who "hate Trump"... I have heard over the decades (starting with the 2000 debacle?) plenty more liberals threatening to "move to Canada" as a response to what they see (for pretty good reason) as an injustice and an aberration/undermining of Democracy, than Conservatives... (though I have a few Righty friends who have created hidey-holes in third world countries where they can hoard their food and guns in the event of an Apocalypse). > > The social unrest whose sharp tip has included direct confrontatation of Law Enforcement reflects the distance to which people have been pushed into a corner. Compare a Waco or Ruby Ridge or similar to the hundreds of police-brutality (unto murder) cases that BLM is in reaction to. I was shocked by the *singular* shooting of a Right Winger in Oregon by a Left winger, and not at all surprised when the Left Winger got shot dead during apprehension while the *several* Right-Wing militia types who shot protestors armed with at most, a skateboard, were taken very gently and in some cases allowed to walk away. Maybe your embedding in a violent/reactionary leftist movement in the '60s informs you more to the likelihood or nature of what a leftist reaction might look like. I think it is probably *good* that my gun-nut friends with MAGA hats (nearly always screwed on way too tight) might be a little afraid that those they would like to intimidate with violence or the > threat of it might have their own venomous bite if cornered. > > Maybe a virulent mass uprising by the Left (or to me "center") if Trump and his cronies mangle the election into something unrecognizeable is aspirational on my part... but I can't think of a single Righty friend or acquaintance of mine who doesn't own a gun or 10 and way too much ammunition for anything but a zombie apocalypse, and has made intimations that they are itching to use them. This is VERY rare in my righty friends... almost to nil. > > - Steve > > On 9/13/20 8:47 AM, Prof David West wrote: >> The entire campaign, as near as I can tell, is nothing except scare the crap out of your base in order to defeat the other guy. Both sides are guilty, albeit with differences in luridness. >> >> Once you have appealed to, and convinced your side of, fear and loathing, there is no easy off-switch. This pretty much guarantees that the losing side will react to the results from fear and nothing else. The fractures will become permanent precisely because they are grounded in irrationality and there is no path back from the brink. >> >> The classical response to fear is "fight or flight." >> >> If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day. >> >> >> If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose. >> >> Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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I guess that any political violence that results from the election won’t really compare to COVID-19. Projected deaths in the US for the end of the year are like US WWII casualties. So if people shrug off COVID 19 whats a little shooting in the streets? At least the danger can be seen. By all means sit in your rocking chair with your rifle. Good self isolating!
> On Sep 13, 2020, at 8:39 AM, glen∉ℂ <[hidden email]> wrote: > > It's also important to note that conservatives tend to feel/see fear more prominently than those open to new experiences. Marcus' point about reactive grievance is an indicator. It's not the conservative tendency to be afraid that generates the grievance culture, though. Conservative fear is well-placed for things like hardening networks, computer security, etc. ... domains where it's necessary to have some serious threat thinkers on the team. What generates grievance culture is *laziness*, the inability to continue working on the problem, a giving up, throwing up one's hands and yelling about liberals or "bad neighborhoods". > > Dave's fear is right. We should all, always, be Antifa, anti-fascist, in whatever forms fascism might take. But in fighting fascism, it pays to stay on point, to talk about the work, to do the work, and not spin off into rants that do no useful work. So, the 1st part of Dave's post, identifying the difference between IFR and CFR is good work. The 2nd part is self-indulgent ranting. And to be clear, I'm a big fan of self-indulgent ranting, obviously ... as long as we all recognize it when we see it ... especially when I do it. > > I'm very happy they came down hard on Reinoehl, even if the Marshals and Sheriffs tend to be right wingers. To all those who'd fight fascism, leave your guns at home. To paraphrase Marcus, the individual doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things. So, carrying a hand gun to "protect yourself", even if it's because you have kids at home, remains stupid, whoever carries it. > > >> On 9/13/20 8:20 AM, Steve Smith wrote: >> Dave - >> I am trying to take your disclaimer at face value: >> /Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. / >> but there is something about your analysis of who will fight and who will flight that seems inverted: >> A) If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day. >> B) If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose. >> I don't have Glen's skill at proper Steelman construction, so what I present here is probably an amalgam of straw and steel... >> A) I see no strong evidence of the conservative/right being prone to "flight".... "hunker down" maybe, but not "flight". The Donald has been *very* proud and out loud to list off "his people", the "strong people"... law enforcement, military, farmers, ranchers, construction workers, and aping Putin, "the bikers". He touts the second amendment with vigor while using the first amendment as a shield of convenience... which does not sound a bit like "flight". Most of his supporters I know personally have at least a little more swagger and bluster and implied intimidation than their counterparts... they show no shame around gerrymandering, voter suppression (playing "poll observer" while sporting assault-style weapons?), and celebrating a thin win via electoral college vs popular vote as a "Mandate" (in 2000 and 2016). None of this reads to me as the ingredients for "flight" unless this is all bluff? >> As to flooding Deseret (Utah and surrounds all the way to the Canadian border through Idaho and bits of Eastern OR, Western CO and northern AZ?)... I can't imagine the folks already there welcoming more than their "friends and family" and maybe a handful of *their* friends and family, but only as long as they bring more dry goods and ammo than average? >> B) Traditionally I see very little propensity for violence among the /Liberal Elite/ and /Liberal Snowflakes /who "hate Trump"... I have heard over the decades (starting with the 2000 debacle?) plenty more liberals threatening to "move to Canada" as a response to what they see (for pretty good reason) as an injustice and an aberration/undermining of Democracy, than Conservatives... (though I have a few Righty friends who have created hidey-holes in third world countries where they can hoard their food and guns in the event of an Apocalypse). >> The social unrest whose sharp tip has included direct confrontatation of Law Enforcement reflects the distance to which people have been pushed into a corner. Compare a Waco or Ruby Ridge or similar to the hundreds of police-brutality (unto murder) cases that BLM is in reaction to. I was shocked by the *singular* shooting of a Right Winger in Oregon by a Left winger, and not at all surprised when the Left Winger got shot dead during apprehension while the *several* Right-Wing militia types who shot protestors armed with at most, a skateboard, were taken very gently and in some cases allowed to walk away. Maybe your embedding in a violent/reactionary leftist movement in the '60s informs you more to the likelihood or nature of what a leftist reaction might look like. I think it is probably *good* that my gun-nut friends with MAGA hats (nearly always screwed on way too tight) might be a little afraid that those they would like to intimidate with violence or the >> threat of it might have their own venomous bite if cornered. >> Maybe a virulent mass uprising by the Left (or to me "center") if Trump and his cronies mangle the election into something unrecognizeable is aspirational on my part... but I can't think of a single Righty friend or acquaintance of mine who doesn't own a gun or 10 and way too much ammunition for anything but a zombie apocalypse, and has made intimations that they are itching to use them. This is VERY rare in my righty friends... almost to nil. >> - Steve >>> On 9/13/20 8:47 AM, Prof David West wrote: >>> The entire campaign, as near as I can tell, is nothing except scare the crap out of your base in order to defeat the other guy. Both sides are guilty, albeit with differences in luridness. >>> >>> Once you have appealed to, and convinced your side of, fear and loathing, there is no easy off-switch. This pretty much guarantees that the losing side will react to the results from fear and nothing else. The fractures will become permanent precisely because they are grounded in irrationality and there is no path back from the brink. >>> >>> The classical response to fear is "fight or flight." >>> >>> If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day. >>> >>> >>> If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose. >>> >>> Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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A symptom that someone is not taking an issue seriously is when they say that both sides are guilty. That's simply a cop-out. It's fine (even good) to criticize any side wrt whatever they are doing that you think merits criticism. But simply to dismiss an issue by saying that both sides are guilty blunts the issue and gets us nowhere. I wish everyone would refrain from that sort of statement. Be specific and concrete when you want to criticize someone--or some organization or some group of people. Taking a both-sides-are-guilty stance does the opposite. -- Russ Abbott Professor, Computer Science California State University, Los Angeles On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 9:36 AM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote: I guess that any political violence that results from the election won’t really compare to COVID-19. Projected deaths in the US for the end of the year are like US WWII casualties. So if people shrug off COVID 19 whats a little shooting in the streets? At least the danger can be seen. By all means sit in your rocking chair with your rifle. Good self isolating! - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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