What are the scenarios? Game theory?
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What are the scenarios? Game theory?
 
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From BBC a reasonable summary: My question is simple: what *are* the alternatives? Is there an interesting game theoretic analysis? The toughest part is that South Korea is being held hostage. NK can devastate SK even if hit with a pre-emptive strike. As rash as Trump's bluster has been, the real question remains: what is the reasonable response to NK's threat. - Preemptive Strike? Likely a loser unless it is so massive as to obliterate every human in NK. SK would be seriously damaged in the aftermath. - Wait 'til NK strikes? Again, hardly reasonable. - Anti-missile defense? Possibly, but you just gotta miss one for apocalypse. And what do you do if you *do* succeed? SK is still hostage. - Tit for Tat? Well, only in the bluster game. Our threats will match yours & vice versa. Has anyone heard of an interesting strategy? -- Owen ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What are the scenarios? Game theory?
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Owen writes:
"The toughest part is that South Korea is being held hostage. NK can devastate SK even if hit with a pre-emptive strike."
How about Trump defines SK as an undesirable economic competitor to the U.S. that steals jobs, and cuts them loose. He has no doubt been briefed on the multi-lateral proliferation that would no doubt result, but it that assumes the message stays clear in his mind.
Marcus From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Owen Densmore <[hidden email]>
Sent: Wednesday, August 9, 2017 3:40:59 PM To: Complexity Coffee Group Subject: [FRIAM] What are the scenarios? Game theory? From BBC a reasonable summary:
My question is simple: what *are* the alternatives? Is there an interesting game theoretic analysis?
The toughest part is that South Korea is being held hostage. NK can devastate SK even if hit with a pre-emptive strike.
As rash as Trump's bluster has been, the real question remains: what is the reasonable response to NK's threat.
- Preemptive Strike? Likely a loser unless it is so massive as to obliterate every human in NK. SK would be seriously damaged in the aftermath.
- Wait 'til NK strikes? Again, hardly reasonable.
- Anti-missile defense? Possibly, but you just gotta miss one for apocalypse. And what do you do if you *do* succeed? SK is still hostage.
- Tit for Tat? Well, only in the bluster game. Our threats will match yours & vice versa.
Has anyone heard of an interesting strategy?
-- Owen
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What are the scenarios? Game theory?
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In reply to this post by Owen Densmore
The US can always do nothing considering its awesome power. Wiping out a nation or two seems would cause the greatest global shame for everyone. Should America use unimaginable power to subdue a noxious mosquito? The compulsion to use such power is frightening. North Korea has no forcing move to play, it does not have a Sente move.(from Go strategy) Only bluff… vib From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore From BBC a reasonable summary: My question is simple: what *are* the alternatives? Is there an interesting game theoretic analysis? The toughest part is that South Korea is being held hostage. NK can devastate SK even if hit with a pre-emptive strike. As rash as Trump's bluster has been, the real question remains: what is the reasonable response to NK's threat. - Preemptive Strike? Likely a loser unless it is so massive as to obliterate every human in NK. SK would be seriously damaged in the aftermath. - Wait 'til NK strikes? Again, hardly reasonable. - Anti-missile defense? Possibly, but you just gotta miss one for apocalypse. And what do you do if you *do* succeed? SK is still hostage. - Tit for Tat? Well, only in the bluster game. Our threats will match yours & vice versa. Has anyone heard of an interesting strategy? -- Owen ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What are the scenarios? Game theory?
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In reply to this post by Owen Densmore
Well, yes, Owen. I was contacted recently by a group of South and North Korean women who have been meeting secretly in the DMZ. The North Koreans sent their delegation. It's a really interesting group. And if you read Truthout today, a good strategy is emerging that involves re-starting the anti-nuke movement. Visit our web site: e-mergenow.org. On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 2:40 PM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:
-- Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA Visiting Professor in Integrative Peacebuilding Saint Paul University Ottawa, Ontario, Canada twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What are the scenarios? Game theory?
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Merle: thanks! On Thu, Aug 10, 2017 at 10:14 PM, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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