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What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

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thompnickson2

What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Hi, Everybody

This article greatly puzzled me because it seemed to eviscerate it self in the last few paragraphs.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

My main concern here is the degree to which I am being deluded by my addiction to the Rachel Maddow Show. She is in HairOnFire mode about an impending epidemic in the plains states. She is particularly caustic about the bad judgement of plains states governors. But if the times charts are right, one can see (sort of) why those governors are not as alarmed as we smarty-pantses think they ought to be. There aren’t that many people dying full stop, even tho people ARE dying of covid. (Not to mention that most of the people who are dying of covid are poorish people working in meet packing plants.) What is this New Abnormal we seem to find ourselves in?

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Steve Smith

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Nick -

https://rt.live/

helps to illustrate some of Rachel's hair-on-fire. NOT because the absolute numbers are (or will be) outrageous, but because the *rates* are high. Take a look at the states who have R0 > 1.0 ... all midwest-plains.

If you have a small town with 0 cases, it is natural to not be "too worried" even if there are three or four small towns within 20 miles who have a case or two... their relative social distance from the international airport/high-density urban *hot spots* means they are *late* to the party AND the relatively small *absolute* numbers means their perception of the problem is lower. AND in fact, they might be able to tolerate higher rates BECAUSE of the perception. If 5 people in your community of 100 die of COVID19 maybe that is easier to accept than if 5000 out of your 100,000 die?

I think these subtleties/subjectives that get lost in the raw statistics are important but I don't know how to quantify them off the top of my head.

- Steve

On 5/6/20 9:24 AM, [hidden email] wrote:

Hi, Everybody

This article greatly puzzled me because it seemed to eviscerate it self in the last few paragraphs.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

My main concern here is the degree to which I am being deluded by my addiction to the Rachel Maddow Show. She is in HairOnFire mode about an impending epidemic in the plains states. She is particularly caustic about the bad judgement of plains states governors. But if the times charts are right, one can see (sort of) why those governors are not as alarmed as we smarty-pantses think they ought to be. There aren’t that many people dying full stop, even tho people ARE dying of covid. (Not to mention that most of the people who are dying of covid are poorish people working in meet packing plants.) What is this New Abnormal we seem to find ourselves in?

N
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thompnickson2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Thanks, Steve, for the comment and link.

My go-to, until the last few days, was a map the Times was putting up of doubling time by county. They clearly still have the data, and do produce it by state, but I can no longer find the national map, which was showing nicely the spread of the disease outward from urban areas.

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 9:31 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Nick -

https://rt.live/

I think these subtleties/subjectives that get lost in the raw statistics are important but I don't know how to quantify them off the top of my head.

- Steve

On 5/6/20 9:24 AM, [hidden email] wrote:

Hi, Everybody
This article greatly puzzled me because it seemed to eviscerate it self in the last few paragraphs.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
My main concern here is the degree to which I am being deluded by my addiction to the Rachel Maddow Show. She is in HairOnFire mode about an impending epidemic in the plains states. She is particularly caustic about the bad judgement of plains states governors. But if the times charts are right, one can see (sort of) why those governors are not as alarmed as we smarty-pantses think they ought to be. There aren’t that many people dying full stop, even tho people ARE dying of covid. (Not to mention that most of the people who are dying of covid are poorish people working in meet packing plants.) What is this New Abnormal we seem to find ourselves in?
N
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gepr

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Given Gov. Kemp's statement that Hall county is having trouble, I thought I'd include it in comparison to DeKalb. This also relates to the idea that Atlanta residents (mostly Dem) might tend to stick with distancing more than the surrounding (more Rep) areas.

On 5/6/20 8:51 AM, [hidden email] wrote:
> My go-to, until the last few days, was a map the Times was putting up of doubling time by county. They clearly still have the data, and do produce it by state, but I can no longer find the national map, which was showing nicely the spread of the disease outward from urban areas.

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Roger Critchlow-2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I read something in the past week that argued the red counties in the battleground states were showing a very bad trendline, that the rates of infection looked ready to surge, but I haven't been able to find the original source again. It was a University researcher who was tracking county statistics.

I didn't see where Nick thought the last few paragraphs undercut the lead of the article, that some states have temporarily lost the ability to track their own vital statistics doesn't suggest that they're doing fine.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 2:17 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Given Gov. Kemp's statement that Hall county is having trouble, I thought I'd include it in comparison to DeKalb. This also relates to the idea that Atlanta residents (mostly Dem) might tend to stick with distancing more than the surrounding (more Rep) areas.

On 5/6/20 8:51 AM, [hidden email] wrote:
> My go-to, until the last few days, was a map the Times was putting up of doubling time by county. They clearly still have the data, and do produce it by state, but I can no longer find the national map, which was showing nicely the spread of the disease outward from urban areas.

--
☣ uǝlƃ
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thompnickson2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Roger, Glen, Steve

Sorry. Not one of my better posts. I certainly didn’t mean to imply that anybody was doing fine. I guess I began to worry that deaths in those more rural states were being masked by the fact that people were staying away from hospitals, but that doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. I will try to wake up more before I post, in future.

I valued Steve’s reflections on death in small rural communities. The town where I raised my family was such a community. Some times a year, weeks would go by between any opportunities to share information. If somebody died in mid summer or in mid winter, it might be a month or so before I would learn it. So, paradoxical as it might seem, I can imagine that the same rate of death might have more impact in a larger community than in a smaller one.

I do miss that national map of case doubling time by county. By comparing it, day by day, I got a real sense of “what was happening.” If anybody happens on that again, please let me know. It would, I think, confirm Roger’s Observation.

Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 12:35 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 2:17 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Given Gov. Kemp's statement that Hall county is having trouble, I thought I'd include it in comparison to DeKalb. This also relates to the idea that Atlanta residents (mostly Dem) might tend to stick with distancing more than the surrounding (more Rep) areas.

On 5/6/20 8:51 AM, [hidden email] wrote:
> My go-to, until the last few days, was a map the Times was putting up of doubling time by county. They clearly still have the data, and do produce it by state, but I can no longer find the national map, which was showing nicely the spread of the disease outward from urban areas.

--
☣ uǝlƃ
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gepr

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Roger Critchlow-2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
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gepr

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Aha! Thanks. I missed a 4. The JHU data shows 204441, not 20441. [sigh]

On 5/6/20 12:42 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote:

> Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.
>
>
>
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.
>
> -- rec --
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email] <mailto:[hidden email]>> wrote:
>
> Hall: 20,441
> DeKalb: 759,297

--
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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

In reply to this post by Roger Critchlow-2

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

Steve Smith

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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--

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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Gary Schiltz-4

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

The denominator is the elephant in the room that nobody seems to want to talk about. Without knowing how many people in the population at large are infected, how the hell can we learn anything about how serious Covid-19 is? Without a doubt, a large percentage of the people who are hospitalized for it are really screwed (approaching 5% death rate? or is it more?). But unless we know how many people have it but have no symptoms or minor symptoms, It's as if we were to say that driving is horribly dangerous because 10% of the people who go to the ER because of head-on crashes die, so nobody should drive. Where are the large scale random sampling efforts? A few billion dollars would go a long way towards periodically testing a randomly selected million people, then following the ones who test positive with follow-up testing to see how the disease progresses.

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 2:59 PM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".
On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
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--

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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gepr

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Well, there's this one. But there's still an enrollment bias:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04334954?term=serosurvey&cond=covid-19&draw=2&rank=1

I suspect a truly random sampling for either drawing blood or sticking a swab up your nose is a bit difficult ... maybe a bit less irritating than talking to that person with the clipboard in the square or at the mall.

On 5/6/20 1:29 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
> Where are the large scale random sampling efforts?
--
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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

thompnickson2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

In reply to this post by Steve Smith

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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--
Frank Wimberly
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505 670-9918
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gepr

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I don't think so. Doubling time (under non-ideal lockdown conditions) conflates density with the other measures. If a sparsely populated area has the same doubling time as a densely populated area, the doubling time graph might gloss over how *badly* the sparsely populated area is doing in controlling the spread. So, in order to really grok the doubling time graphs, you have to have a feel for the relative densities. Feel free to correct my faulty thinking.

I think the deltas (as in the graphs I've posted) are a good compromise. They're still in the same units (# of people) and show larger deltas for larger populations. However, I *would* like to divide out area (e.g. square meters) of whatever region's being plotted. I think Δcases/m^2 would be interesting.

On 5/6/20 2:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

> On 5/6/20 12:59 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
>>
>> This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

FWIW the population density of New Mexico is 17/mile^2 and in India 1202/mile^2.

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 4:13 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

I don't think so. Doubling time (under non-ideal lockdown conditions) conflates density with the other measures. If a sparsely populated area has the same doubling time as a densely populated area, the doubling time graph might gloss over how *badly* the sparsely populated area is doing in controlling the spread. So, in order to really grok the doubling time graphs, you have to have a feel for the relative densities. Feel free to correct my faulty thinking.

I think the deltas (as in the graphs I've posted) are a good compromise. They're still in the same units (# of people) and show larger deltas for larger populations. However, I *would* like to divide out area (e.g. square meters) of whatever region's being plotted. I think Δcases/m^2 would be interesting.

On 5/6/20 2:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

> On 5/6/20 12:59 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
>>
>> This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

Steve Smith

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I just found (maybe just added?) the mode setting for this one to change deaths to deaths/100,000

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-mexico

settings menu-icon in the upper-right hand side of each chart. Seems to persist across locations.

FWIW the population density of New Mexico is 17/mile^2 and in India 1202/mile^2.

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 4:13 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

I don't think so. Doubling time (under non-ideal lockdown conditions) conflates density with the other measures. If a sparsely populated area has the same doubling time as a densely populated area, the doubling time graph might gloss over how *badly* the sparsely populated area is doing in controlling the spread. So, in order to really grok the doubling time graphs, you have to have a feel for the relative densities. Feel free to correct my faulty thinking.

I think the deltas (as in the graphs I've posted) are a good compromise. They're still in the same units (# of people) and show larger deltas for larger populations. However, I *would* like to divide out area (e.g. square meters) of whatever region's being plotted. I think Δcases/m^2 would be interesting.

On 5/6/20 2:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

> On 5/6/20 12:59 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
>>
>> This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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--

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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Prof David West

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

In reply to this post by thompnickson2

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.
This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".
On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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--
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on. But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Prof David West <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith

Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall: 20,441

DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--

☣ uǝlƃ

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--

Frank Wimberly

140 Calle Ojo Feliz

Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918

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Joe Spinden

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess.

A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.

On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on.    But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Prof David West [hidden email]
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
To: [hidden email] [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith

Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.    At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall: 20,441

DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--

☣ uǝlƃ

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--

Frank Wimberly

140 Calle Ojo Feliz

Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918

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-- 
Joe

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