Friam

What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

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thompnickson2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

By the way, I just read an article in the NYT which assures me that a “sanitizer” is not guaranteed to kill viruses.

Oh, gosh!

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 8:40 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.
This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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--
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

What about hand soap.

By the way, the morse code in the Friam signature says, "Random dots and dashes" .

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 9:21 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

By the way, I just read an article in the NYT which assures me that a “sanitizer” is not guaranteed to kill viruses.

Oh, gosh!

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 8:40 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.
This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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--
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

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Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

thompnickson2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I love that, Frank. A digital version of “this is not a cigar”.

Thank you,

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 9:24 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

What about hand soap.

By the way, the morse code in the Friam signature says, "Random dots and dashes" .

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 9:21 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

By the way, I just read an article in the NYT which assures me that a “sanitizer” is not guaranteed to kill viruses.

Oh, gosh!

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 8:40 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.
This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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--
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

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Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Stephen is messing with us.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, May 6, 2020, 9:42 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

I love that, Frank. A digital version of “this is not a cigar”.

Thank you,

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 9:24 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

What about hand soap.

By the way, the morse code in the Friam signature says, "Random dots and dashes" .

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 9:21 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
By the way, I just read an article in the NYT which assures me that a “sanitizer” is not guaranteed to kill viruses.

Oh, gosh!

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 8:40 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.
This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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--
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
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--
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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David Eric Smith

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

In reply to this post by Joe Spinden

There was an article on this, I think NYT, I think sometime last week. So some group is currently doing that on some data set. I too would like to see it done more comprehensively and systematically by some group.

Probably I saw the article because somebody posted it to this list. Slap me when I wake back up.

Eric

On May 7, 2020, at 12:01 PM, Joe Spinden <[hidden email]> wrote:
This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess.
A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.

On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on.    But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Prof David West [hidden email]
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
To: [hidden email] [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.
This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.    At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

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Confidentiality Notice: This e-mail communication and any attachments may contain confidential and privileged information for the use of the designated recipients named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this communication in error and that any review, disclosure, dissemination, distribution, or copying of it or its contents is prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify me immediately by replying to this message and deleting it from your computer. Thank you.
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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of David Eric Smith <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 9:02 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Probably I saw the article because somebody posted it to this list. Slap me when I wake back up.

Eric

On May 7, 2020, at 12:01 PM, Joe Spinden <[hidden email]> wrote:
This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess.

A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.

On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on.    But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Prof David West [hidden email]
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
To: [hidden email] [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith

Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.    At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall: 20,441

DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--

☣ uǝlƃ

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--

Frank Wimberly

140 Calle Ojo Feliz

Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918

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-- 
Joe
 
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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

In reply to this post by Joe Spinden

If there was ever a time statistical inference could work, it is when there are millions of infected people, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and a database that tracks biological and behavioral things about them.

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Joe Spinden <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 8:02 PM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess.

A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.

On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on.    But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Prof David West [hidden email]
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
To: [hidden email] [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith

Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.    At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall: 20,441

DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--

☣ uǝlƃ

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--

Frank Wimberly

140 Calle Ojo Feliz

Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918

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--

Joe

Confidentiality Notice: This e-mail communication and any attachments may contain confidential and privileged information for the use of the designated recipients named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this communication in error and that any review, disclosure, dissemination, distribution, or copying of it or its contents is prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify me immediately by replying to this message and deleting it from your computer. Thank you.

Frank Wimberly-2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Statistics + pathogenesis would be ideal but the latter is still not fully understood?

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, May 6, 2020, 10:16 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

If there was ever a time statistical inference could work, it is when there are millions of infected people, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and a database that tracks biological and behavioral things about them.

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Joe Spinden <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 8:02 PM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess.

A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.

On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on.    But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Prof David West [hidden email]
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
To: [hidden email] [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith

Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.    At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall: 20,441

DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--

☣ uǝlƃ

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--

Frank Wimberly

140 Calle Ojo Feliz

Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918

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-- 
Joe
 
Confidentiality Notice: This e-mail communication and any attachments may contain confidential and privileged information for the use of the designated recipients named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this communication in error and that any review, disclosure, dissemination, distribution, or copying of it or its contents is prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify me immediately by replying to this message and deleting it from your computer. Thank you.
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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Death is a pretty unambiguous indicator, and there are standard codes found in electronic health records.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICD-10

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 9:22 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Statistics + pathogenesis would be ideal but the latter is still not fully understood?

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, May 6, 2020, 10:16 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

If there was ever a time statistical inference could work, it is when there are millions of infected people, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and a database that tracks biological and behavioral things about them.

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Joe Spinden <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 8:02 PM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess.

A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.

On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on.    But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Prof David West [hidden email]
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
To: [hidden email] [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith

Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.    At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hall: 20,441

DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--

☣ uǝlƃ

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--

Frank Wimberly

140 Calle Ojo Feliz

Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918

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-- 
Joe
 
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gepr

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

In reply to this post by gepr

Based on this discussion, I divided by population (per county, not a normalized amount like 100k) and land area (not including water area). The results are interesting. There was a report about a Gallup hospital having problems. So, I used McKinley county (NM) for comparison.

The raw slopes still (I think) do the best to show what's happening. Dividing by population biases the data to magnify the low population county. Dividing by area magnifies the smaller counties (Bernalillo: 3k km^2, Santa Fe: 5k km^2, McKinley: 14k km^2). Dividing by both produces the same "phenotype" as the simple Δ's, but squashes out the profile shapes (e.g. the slight sigmoid in the Bernalillo slope).

My standard mix with DeKalb, King, & Denver (and now Hall as well) shows even more interesting behavior, dividing out both population and area how Hall has caught up with Denver (a really bad sign since Denver County is very dense, mostly just the city of Denver and the airport, an order of magnitude denser than Hall). But i won't spam the list with this stuff anymore.

On 5/6/20 3:13 PM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> I think Δcases/m^2 would be interesting.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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nm.png (775K) Download Attachment

uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Steve Smith

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Glen -

Very interesting view on these three counties... numbers normalized to population count and population density are a "good start"!

The question of what a good "mixing model" is for different geopolitical demographics is fascinating. It seems like McKinley/Gallup is on one end of the spectrum (very low population density overall, but a strong concentration in *one* location (or small set of service/shopping locations IN Gallup) serving the whole county population) vs Bernalillo which has dozens of sub-communities where their sub-populations may stay "close to home" if not always "at home", shopping at one or two of their own neighborhood supermarkets/hardwares.

Poverty (and rurality) may also correlate positively with delays in diagnosis. More people may be more used to just staying home and weathering out an illness since going to the doc or urgent care can have a significant hurdle financially and logistically (a tank of gas, requiring the only reliable family vehicle, etc). I'm assuming that the "diagnosed case" date is not the presumed date of exposure/contraction/onset-of-symptoms but rather the date of the return of a test or of a declaration of a health-care worker.

- Steve

Based on this discussion, I divided by population (per county, not a normalized amount like 100k) and land area (not including water area). The results are interesting. There was a report about a Gallup hospital having problems. So, I used McKinley county (NM) for comparison.

The raw slopes still (I think) do the best to show what's happening. Dividing by population biases the data to magnify the low population county. Dividing by area magnifies the smaller counties (Bernalillo: 3k km^2, Santa Fe: 5k km^2, McKinley: 14k km^2). Dividing by both produces the same "phenotype" as the simple Δ's, but squashes out the profile shapes (e.g. the slight sigmoid in the Bernalillo slope).

My standard mix with DeKalb, King, & Denver (and now Hall as well) shows even more interesting behavior, dividing out both population and area how Hall has caught up with Denver (a really bad sign since Denver County is very dense, mostly just the city of Denver and the airport, an order of magnitude denser than Hall). But i won't spam the list with this stuff anymore.

On 5/6/20 3:13 PM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:

I think Δcases/m^2 would be interesting.

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gepr

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I disagree, of course. >8^D I think dividing out population and area are a misguiding distraction. The simple slopes are better. As we've discussed ad nauseum, these "normalizers" are *also* models. And all models are always wrong. So, for every derivation, you're stacking wrongness upon wrongness. If you're super careful, the stacks of wrongness *might* help you see some aspect of the situation better. But by "super careful", I mean *professional* modeling ... something that costs a lot of time, money, attention, and skill.

Our fondness for blinky lights, bells and whistles, pornographic evocation of our love for *metaphor* will only mislead us. Data first, metaphor second (or better yet, never).

On 5/8/20 8:03 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> Very interesting view on these three counties... numbers normalized to population count and population density are a "good start"!

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Steve Smith

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

> I disagree, of course. >8^D I think dividing out population and area are a misguiding distraction. The simple slopes are better. As we've discussed ad nauseum, these "normalizers" are *also* models. And all models are always wrong. So, for every derivation, you're stacking wrongness upon wrongness. If you're super careful, the stacks of wrongness *might* help you see some aspect of the situation better. But by "super careful", I mean *professional* modeling ... something that costs a lot of time, money, attention, and skill.
>
> Our fondness for blinky lights, bells and whistles, pornographic evocation of our love for *metaphor* will only mislead us. Data first, metaphor second (or better yet, never).
In that case, perhaps we should just riot then!

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Steve writes:

< In that case, perhaps we should just riot then! >

Isn't it just a matter of time now?

Marcus

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thompnickson2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

In reply to this post by gepr

Glen,

I think your "spam" is very meaty and I hope you will keep it coming.

But these words,

pornographic evocation of our love for *metaphor* will only mislead us.

… now them’s, fightin’ words!

You old troll, you,

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Friday, May 8, 2020 9:11 AM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Our fondness for blinky lights, bells and whistles, pornographic evocation of our love for *metaphor* will only mislead us. Data first, metaphor second (or better yet, never).

On 5/8/20 8:03 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:

> Very interesting view on these three counties... numbers normalized to population count and population density are a "good start"!

☣ uǝlƃ

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Steve Smith

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Glen,

I think your "spam" is very meaty and I hope you will keep it coming.

But these words,

pornographic evocation of our love for *metaphor* will only mislead us.

… now them’s, fightin’ words!

You old troll, you,

Nick

"Get off my lawn!" <shakes tiny fist> (metaphorically of course)

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Friday, May 8, 2020 9:11 AM
To: FriAM [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I disagree, of course. >8^D I think dividing out population and area are a misguiding distraction. The simple slopes are better. As we've discussed ad nauseum, these "normalizers" are *also* models. And all models are always wrong. So, for every derivation, you're stacking wrongness upon wrongness. If you're super careful, the stacks of wrongness *might* help you see some aspect of the situation better. But by "super careful", I mean *professional* modeling ... something that costs a lot of time, money, attention, and skill.

Our fondness for blinky lights, bells and whistles, pornographic evocation of our love for *metaphor* will only mislead us. Data first, metaphor second (or better yet, never).

On 5/8/20 8:03 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:

> Very interesting view on these three counties... numbers normalized to population count and population density are a "good start"!

--

☣ uǝlƃ

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thompnickson2

Re: What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

“Who’s that crossing my bridge!”

“tiz I, the littlest Billy Goat Gruff!”

Nick

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Friday, May 8, 2020 9:46 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Glen,

I think your "spam" is very meaty and I hope you will keep it coming.

But these words,

pornographic evocation of our love for *metaphor* will only mislead us.
… now them’s, fightin’ words!

You old troll, you,

Nick

"Get off my lawn!" <shakes tiny fist> (metaphorically of course)

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Friday, May 8, 2020 9:11 AM
To: FriAM [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I disagree, of course. >8^D I think dividing out population and area are a misguiding distraction. The simple slopes are better. As we've discussed ad nauseum, these "normalizers" are *also* models. And all models are always wrong. So, for every derivation, you're stacking wrongness upon wrongness. If you're super careful, the stacks of wrongness *might* help you see some aspect of the situation better. But by "super careful", I mean *professional* modeling ... something that costs a lot of time, money, attention, and skill.

Our fondness for blinky lights, bells and whistles, pornographic evocation of our love for *metaphor* will only mislead us. Data first, metaphor second (or better yet, never).

On 5/8/20 8:03 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> Very interesting view on these three counties... numbers normalized to population count and population density are a "good start"!

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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