The apocalypse
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What's the matter with your president? I am worried we are heading to the apocalypse. The "fire and fury" threat feels like the Cuban missile crisis or worse. http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/ And then there is the issue of global warming which the Trump administration ignores now. This is not just one apocalypse, it is two. -J. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Jochen,
"What's the matter with your president?"
And it is the west cost states at the most risk. States that voted for H!
Marcus From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]>
Sent: Wednesday, August 9, 2017 1:34:15 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: [FRIAM] The apocalypse What's the matter with your president? I am worried we are heading to the apocalypse. The "fire and fury" threat feels like the Cuban missile crisis or worse.
http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/
And then there is the issue of global warming which the Trump administration ignores now. This is not just one apocalypse, it is two.
-J.
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5
Jochen, He’s out of his friggin mind. There are those who feel that the risk arising from the stultification of our political system was so bad that it justified taking this sort of existential risk (Hey, Dave!), but I am not one of them. Small interesting things ARE starting to happen, (meetings amongst scared non-crazy people in congress) and I am grateful for those, but whether they will develop in time to rescue us, is by no means certain. People keep offering me as comfort the fact that the South Koreans aren’t worried …. 30 million people on the edge of obliteration from conventional shells full of sarin. Why does that not comfort me? No, we are back to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Nick Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm What's the matter with your president? I am worried we are heading to the apocalypse. The "fire and fury" threat feels like the Cuban missile crisis or worse. And then there is the issue of global warming which the Trump administration ignores now. This is not just one apocalypse, it is two. -J. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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It's bad enough that he's "out of his friggin' mind", but a CNN piece today asks, "Could Congress stop Trump from bombing North Korea?" The reporter's conclusion is basically that no, it couldn't. I think we all should scared witless that Trump may well pull the trigger. My only hope is that enough high-level generals would risk court martial and refuse to follow his orders. If the USA did launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike, the consequences for S Korea (and Japan?) would be horrific. And then there is the question of what China and Russia would do in response. This is really, really serious crap.
On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 5:05 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
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In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5
I doubt that North Korea has the ability to hit a tiny island like Guam in the Pacific, but it can without doubt destroy the 9 million capital Seoul near the border with weapons bought from Russia or China. The danger of a nuclear apocalypse is greatest when the world has forgotten how dangerous these weapons of mass destruction are. Even trying to model mutually assured destruction is useless with people like Kim Jong-Un and Trump. How can he brag on Twitter about nuclear weapons? WTF ? -J. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Gary Schiltz-4
I'm not following the public debate/discussion on this, but I think we discussed this here a few months ago? Even though I lived and worked in the belly of the (Nuclear
Weapons Complex) beast for decades, I admit to not knowing with
any degree of certainty how direct the "Launch Codes" and
mechanisms in the various command centers (white house situation,
Cheyenne Mtn, ???) or via the "Nuclear Football" are connected to
the actual launching mechanisms. I understand that the Nuclear Football is carried by an
aide-de-camp (who is this for Trump, someone different every
day/week?) and can imagine that person wrestling it away from him
when he is in a fit of pique, as might the Sec'y of Defense or one
of the Joint Chiefs body-check him as he reaches for the "FIRE!"
button (is there actually a lock-out switch or something
involved?). According to Wikipedia, the President's identity
must be verified (the purpose of the launch code?) which the Sec'y
of Defense is burdened with authenticating? In principle, he
does not have veto power, but in practice I like to visualize "Mad
Dog" Madis decking "The Donald" when he tries to launch agains NK
(or anyone), then politely reaching out to help him up off the
floor and asking him "are you OK? are you having a siezure?" and
then decking him again, eventually getting some help to haul him
off to a hospital bed (with restraints) in a padded room in a
coma. With that model, I would say there are a "few" fuses in the circuit that *might* prevent an other-than-sane President from actually effectively launching any missiles. I'm waiting for the "Presidential Order" to come down directing that the launch mechanisms be connected directly to a twitter feed so that he can launch with nothing more than a clever hashtag "#nukemYooge @NK" or somesuch?! With the various leaky leaks and the leaking leakers who leak them afoot in spite of the AG's "don't do it!" admonition afoot, I would not be surprised if there aren't many Silo/Sub/Bomber operations people discussing among themselves in 2's and 3's or entire teams "what we do if he pulls the trigger??!!!" I think I'm more worried for Japan than SK or US protectorates or the US west coast... seems like an easier target might be Japan (Okinawa is fat, but there are several other US Military targets as well). If Putin was the friend Trump seems to want him to be, HE would take care of any retaliation for us I would think? Let one bully's bully-friend smack down the little bully-wanna-be for the first bully? Trump is a whackadoodle loose cannon, but Putin is more of a Junkyard Dog, probably more intimidating to Kim Jong-Un than the Donald is? But then that probably wouldn't play well with the third nuclear Super Power. It probably doesn't matter which side of the equator you live in in Ecuador, but "back in the day" nuclear winter (and less outrageous alternatives) models were more gentle in the southern Hemisphere. I hate to realize that I am even spending cycles thinking about this!?! - Steve On 8/9/17 5:05 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5
I (razzingly) suggest bad summer movies or that somehow all the Doom will some freeze in place at the same time. Perhaps we shall some how find a bunch of tribbles, zombies, a large rock in the sky, and dinso's all at the same time and that because of the Doom Metter the'll just stay their, thus no more doom can happen. On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 8:04 PM, Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:
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Administrator
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OK, what's tit for tat with the North Korea Guam threat:
I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our hand as to effective antimissile capabilities. -- Owen On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 9:36 PM, Gillian Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:
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"I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our hand as to effective antimissile capabilities."
The best thing would be to have people in charge that don't freak out at the slightest provocation.
"Third, we must enhance our antimissile systems and other defenses, and those of our allies, which need our reassurances more than ever."
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-trump-north-korea.html From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Owen Densmore <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2017 10:26:46 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse
OK, what's tit for tat with the North Korea Guam threat:
I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our hand as to effective antimissile capabilities.
-- Owen
On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 9:36 PM, Gillian Densmore
<[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Budda nature, calm and a good ol' jedi about now Aka cooler heads tend to prevail and do some awsome stuf. On Thu, Aug 10, 2017 at 12:03 PM, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
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While undoubtedly fun, all the speculation (dare I say hysteria without sounding sexist?) about a Trump induced apocalypse is kind of far fetched. Too many intermediaries twixt mouth, button, and detonation.
However, according to FEMA, the US Military, the Department of Energy, and the CIA there IS a 100% chance of an existential threat occurring within the next 10-20 years. Massive failure of the power grid.
-- Iran, Russia, China, and probably North Korea already have malware embedded in the system.
-- Major transformers have no backup (they cost 10-100 million dollars, take two years to build, and are almost all built in China)
-- Deaths by day 5 of failure will reach the 100s of thousands, if not millions.
-- By day ten, there will be no economy and no effectual government.
-- One of the highest ranked scenarios for this to occur is North Korea detonating a ship born nuke off the coast of Southern California - the nuke tuned to generate a massive EMP. And, we know they have nukes small enough to fit in a freighter. They can do this. Guam is absurd at the present.
Interestingly, none of the government agencies that are certain this event will occur within 20 years have any plans for how it will be dealt with!
davew
BTW, the grid has been a particular interest of mine since an acquaintance caused the first major US blackout, in the early 70s, by toppling a few towers in the pacific northwest with a few sticks of dynamite.
On Thu, Aug 10, 2017, at 12:52 PM, Gillian Densmore wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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"However, according to FEMA, the US Military, the Department of Energy, and the CIA there IS a 100% chance of an existential threat occurring within the next 10-20 years. Massive failure of the power grid."
There are also risks due to inadequate monitoring of existing infrastructure, e.g. the kind of thing that happens when deregulation aims to maximize profits.
Folks always like to focus on bad guy scenarios and not dangers due to environmental events, especially the variety humans cause.
Marcus From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Prof David West <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2017 1:24:29 PM To: [hidden email] Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse While undoubtedly fun, all the speculation (dare I say hysteria without sounding sexist?) about a Trump induced apocalypse is kind of far fetched. Too many intermediaries twixt mouth, button, and detonation.
However, according to FEMA, the US Military, the Department of Energy, and the CIA there IS a 100% chance of an existential threat occurring within the next 10-20 years. Massive failure of the power grid.
-- Iran, Russia, China, and probably North Korea already have malware embedded in the system.
-- Major transformers have no backup (they cost 10-100 million dollars, take two years to build, and are almost all built in China)
-- Deaths by day 5 of failure will reach the 100s of thousands, if not millions.
-- By day ten, there will be no economy and no effectual government.
-- One of the highest ranked scenarios for this to occur is North Korea detonating a ship born nuke off the coast of Southern California - the nuke tuned to generate a massive EMP. And, we know they have nukes small enough to
fit in a freighter. They can do this. Guam is absurd at the present.
Interestingly, none of the government agencies that are certain this event will occur within 20 years have any plans for how it will be dealt with!
davew
BTW, the grid has been a particular interest of mine since an acquaintance caused the first major US blackout, in the early 70s, by toppling a few towers in the pacific northwest with a few sticks of dynamite.
On Thu, Aug 10, 2017, at 12:52 PM, Gillian Densmore wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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