PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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Nah. I think you inferred too far. I read the sentiment simply as a call for balance in the relationship between first principles and opaque but predictive methods. I have to fight this fight all the time in my work. Even though my reputation (shambles that it is) is in mechanistic modeling (a type of first principles), I have to consistently argue that the opaque (ML) or largely meaningless (over-fit) models can be just as useful, depending on the context.
At my first co-op gig, building trailers to house the engineers launching rockets in the desert, a colleague offered to help me build some speakers for my truck. He pulled out these charts and tables that mapped the properties of the acoustic space, power available, speaker sizes, box sizes/shapes, frequencies (mostly lower to resonate in the shelled bed), etc. Bunches of numbers that he claimed to understand, but with my EE classes under my belt I could tell he didn't *really* understand them. >8^D So, I derived most of the properties of the speakers from (what I thought were) first principles. I got nearly the same answers he got, which was very satisfying for both of us. I think had either of us bailed on our role, the project would have been much less satisfying ... asymmetry between the two types of understanding is unhealthy. On 5/14/20 5:28 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > I *think* this discussion (or this subthread) has devolved to suggesting that predictive power is the only use of modeling (and simulation) whilst explanatory power is not (it is just drama?). -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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In reply to this post by Steve Smith
Steve writes: “I *think* this discussion (or this subthread) has devolved to suggesting that predictive power is the only use of modeling (and simulation) whilst explanatory power is not (it is just drama?). “
First principles explanations start with some assumptions and reason forward. The explanation will be wrong if the assumptions are wrong. If the validation data is inadequate in depth or breadth, or at the wrong scale, the validation that is achieved
will be wrong or illusory too. In Nick’s example, the problem was that flight evidence was on the wrong scale. If the flight continued for 120 years, I’d argue that is a distinction without a difference. There won’t be a widow, because she’ll be dead
too. I suspect a lot of the appeal of explanatory power does not come from the elaboration or analysis that derivations provide, but simply from a desire for control, and a desire to have something to talk about. Some machine learning approaches give simple models, models that do not involve thousands of parameters. If one gets to the same equations from an automated process, nothing prevents derivations or deconstruction starting from them. Other machine learning
approaches generalize, but give black boxes that are inscrutably complex. When the latter is far more powerful than the former, what is one to do? Ignore their utility? Marcus .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2
Frank writes: “Which email has that parody of Trump attached to it? Very funny.” Suppose the work wasn’t done by a student but by an organization like a drug cartel or political action committee. To achieve the aims of such organizations it would need fidelity not explanatory power.
Marcus .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
Above I should have written "both/and is better than either/or". For clarity. Marc Raibert founded Boston Dynamics which was bought by Google. They're the people that develop the walking animals, etc that appear in so many videos. Marc and I did an experiment that involved solving differential equations (first principles) offline and storing the results in very large tables. In real time the walking machine fits curves (not first principles) to the tables to determine how to move a joint to achieve balance. Is that an example of a synthesis? --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Thu, May 14, 2020, 9:08 AM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
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In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
I just read Pirsig's (in "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance"
reflections on the Japanese concept of "Mu" and thought of at least a half-dozen of our threads here... https://www.awakin.org/read/view.php?tid=583 I'm wondering if Carl (Tollander) is listening here and might offer his own perspective (as a Japanophile and practicioner on this edge IMO) - Steve .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: Pirsig's reflections on "Mu"
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Mu is an unspecified function parameterized by everything and that returns a distribution. Not as convenient to put into a table as "NA"!
On 5/14/20, 8:30 AM, "Friam on behalf of Steven A Smith" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: I just read Pirsig's (in "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" reflections on the Japanese concept of "Mu" and thought of at least a half-dozen of our threads here... https://www.awakin.org/read/view.php?tid=583 I'm wondering if Carl (Tollander) is listening here and might offer his own perspective (as a Japanophile and practicioner on this edge IMO) - Steve .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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In reply to this post by gepr
I like this example.
Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Thursday, May 14, 2020 8:58 AM To: FriAM <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube Nah. I think you inferred too far. I read the sentiment simply as a call for balance in the relationship between first principles and opaque but predictive methods. I have to fight this fight all the time in my work. Even though my reputation (shambles that it is) is in mechanistic modeling (a type of first principles), I have to consistently argue that the opaque (ML) or largely meaningless (over-fit) models can be just as useful, depending on the context. At my first co-op gig, building trailers to house the engineers launching rockets in the desert, a colleague offered to help me build some speakers for my truck. He pulled out these charts and tables that mapped the properties of the acoustic space, power available, speaker sizes, box sizes/shapes, frequencies (mostly lower to resonate in the shelled bed), etc. Bunches of numbers that he claimed to understand, but with my EE classes under my belt I could tell he didn't *really* understand them. >8^D So, I derived most of the properties of the speakers from (what I thought were) first principles. I got nearly the same answers he got, which was very satisfying for both of us. I think had either of us bailed on our role, the project would have been much less satisfying ... asymmetry between the two types of understanding is unhealthy. On 5/14/20 5:28 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > I *think* this discussion (or this subthread) has devolved to > suggesting that predictive power is the only use of modeling (and simulation) whilst explanatory power is not (it is just drama?). -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2
Frank writes: “Marc and I did an experiment that involved solving differential equations (first principles) offline and storing the results in very large tables. In real time the walking machine fits curves (not first principles) to the tables to determine
how to move a joint to achieve balance. I’d call that a space/speed tradeoff, a computational trick to work within resource constraints. Marcus .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2
Frank, I am way out of my territory, here, but are “differential equasions” necessarily “first principles”. It seems to me that one could derive differential equasions based on any fictions. How do I misunderstand what is going on, here? Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly Above I should have written "both/and is better than either/or". For clarity. Marc Raibert founded Boston Dynamics which was bought by Google. They're the people that develop the walking animals, etc that appear in so many videos. Marc and I did an experiment that involved solving differential equations (first principles) offline and storing the results in very large tables. In real time the walking machine fits curves (not first principles) to the tables to determine how to move a joint to achieve balance. --- On Thu, May 14, 2020, 9:08 AM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
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You're right. There are mechanistic DE models and non-mechanistic DE models.
On 5/14/20 9:09 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > I am way out of my territory, here, but are “differential equasions” necessarily “first principles”. It seems to me that one could derive differential equasions based on any fictions. How do I misunderstand what is going on, here? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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What Glen said. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Thu, May 14, 2020, 10:14 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: You're right. There are mechanistic DE models and non-mechanistic DE models. .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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In reply to this post by gepr
But in the context of maintaining balance in a walking machine they are derivable from classical mechanics. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Thu, May 14, 2020, 10:14 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: You're right. There are mechanistic DE models and non-mechanistic DE models. .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
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Got it! Thanks everybody. N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly But in the context of maintaining balance in a walking machine they are derivable from classical mechanics. --- On Thu, May 14, 2020, 10:14 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
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Dude! You're passing on the opportunity to troll for the meaning of "mechanics", "mechanism", etc? The social distancing must be getting to you. 8^D
On 5/14/20 9:23 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > Got it! Thanks everybody. N -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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