Outbreak Simulation
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Nice simulation: https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/-J. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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I can't find the Zoom invite. Could you invite me? On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 3:26 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote: ============================================================ The information contained in this transmission may contain privileged and confidential information. It is intended only for the use of the person(s) named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any review, dissemination, distribution or duplication of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message. To reply to our email administrator directly, please send an email to [hidden email].
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5
At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens. What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people that is consistent with the social distancing strategy? For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model, or simulation. Jon ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Hi, Y’all, Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two sessions, equally interesting, but quite different. Session one was an expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission. Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing, psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it. Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so paradoxical: “One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come through it.” Most actionable suggestion of the day: Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public. Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question: How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable. One the one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop. I know how to handle it individually: If I start to panic, I just climb into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep. But conversation-wise, I am not so sure. Perhaps agree to devote small portion of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary? Assuming we can do that, here is my suggestion for a catastrophic discussion: Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders are closed? Draft out-of-school college students?) Our country is run by a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case, because they are the most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they bring down the whole? Ok. Now I am going to bed. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Jon Zingale At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens. What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people that is consistent with the social distancing strategy? For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model, or simulation. Jon ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Don't go to sleep, please I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do. Frank --- Frank C. Wimberly 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Frank, Oh, I don’t mean THAT kind of sleep. I just mean that, if my head is full of shitty thoughts about the future, telling myself that I am not going to wake up is actually calming. It’s an instance of Thompson’s First Law: Thou shalt not worry about two mutually exclusive calamities. I developed this law when I found myself sitting on my sunny front porch in New Braintree worrying, alternately, that the young elm tree growing near the porch would grow up and cast shade on the porch AND that the young elm tree growing near the porch would die of dutch elm disease. I figured that if I had nothing better to do with my mind, I should probably take a nap. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly Don't go to sleep, please I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do. Frank --- On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2
I thought this was kind of interesting. https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus If they were doing something like this, might be able to collect both the viral and human data from one sample: From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> Don't go to sleep, please I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do. Frank --- On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Below is information I just saw from the Center for American Progress on strategies to insure the election process can move forward. This is in answer to Nick's (and my) concern. Expand opportunities for people to vote from home or at quarantine locationsStates should think seriously about adopting all vote-by-mail elections with vote centers or other in-person options for people who prefer or need them. States such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have already implemented all-mail elections with great success, and Hawaii will begin implementing all-mail voting during the 2020 elections. Another option is to adopt no-excuse absentee voting and extend deadlines for requesting absentee ballots. A handful of states have permanent absentee votinglists, whereby every registered voter who signs up receives an absentee ballot each election. As a precaution for upcoming elections, jurisdictions should automatically maila ballot to each registered voter well in advance of voting periods. Voters should be able to return their ballots by mail or by dropping their voted ballot off at conveniently located secure drop boxes or at drive-up, drop-off locations. Ballot envelopes should be self-sealing to protect the health and safety of election workers who handle absentee ballots. All absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even if they are ultimately received days later due to postal service delays. On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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fuck "social distancing" this "shelter in place" shit has the assumption that we'll pull a rabbit out of our ass in 2-3 months tops. When in the history of medicine has that ever happend? I don't want people hurt by it. Drumming up more hysteria than the news already does isn't helping matters either. On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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It’s not about stalling for a treatment, it is to pace the hospital arrivals. On Mar 20, 2020, at 10:44 PM, Gillian Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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Mmm. Well. That is true our medical system is a fragile mess as is. My concern that I realize is a pretty unpopular opinion is a total lack of perspective. One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not making it through this, what ever it is. I gather the real issue isn't that, it's people who for what ever reason don't quite stay at some dry caugh cold, nasty flue like stage but then also get just nastily congested lungs that need sterrioids and oxygen. And all of that on top of a surreal amount of hyping up the negative and turning it into a WWF style match from media. "PANDEMIC 2000 (PANDEMIC, DEMIC EPIDEMIC MOOONSTER DEMIC RACING 2020!!! ALL THE...SAME SOUND BYTES NOW WITH MORE COWBELL!!!" I don't know if that'll read well in text. Anyone that was a kid of the 80s(us) and they'd have this truck rally adds on Saturdays and Sometimes Sundays. I imagine how that'd sound with this Max-Hendroomy thing of turning this epidemic into something like that. As if it's a 80s WWF wrestling match But then also the scientists I don't think are saying lock yourself inside.(yet) Pretty disturbing to call 'Eh well try to avoid people' as Social Distancing. On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 11:49 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 8:54 AM Gillian Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Gillian Densmore
Gillian writes:
"One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not making it through this, what ever it is. "
In 2018 in Italy, there were 3,325 fatalities from road accidents.[1] There have been
4,032 fatalities from COVID-19 so far. The governor of California announced that 56% of the state could contract the virus.[2] Extrapolating that to the whole country, an uncontrolled outbreak would kill about 1.8 million people
at a 1% fatality rate. There were 33,654 road fatalities in the United States in 2018.
Stay at home.
Marcus
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Gillian Densmore <[hidden email]>
Sent: Saturday, March 21, 2020 6:53 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation Mmm. Well. That is true our medical system is a fragile mess as is. My concern that I realize is a pretty unpopular opinion is a total lack of perspective. One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not making it through
this, what ever it is. I gather the real issue isn't that, it's people who for what ever reason don't quite stay at some dry caugh cold, nasty flue like stage but then also get just nastily congested lungs that need sterrioids and oxygen.
And all of that on top of a surreal amount of hyping up the negative and turning it into a WWF style match from media. "PANDEMIC 2000 (PANDEMIC, DEMIC EPIDEMIC MOOONSTER DEMIC RACING 2020!!! ALL THE...SAME SOUND BYTES NOW WITH MORE COWBELL!!!" I don't
know if that'll read well in text. Anyone that was a kid of the 80s(us) and they'd have this truck rally adds on Saturdays and Sometimes Sundays. I imagine how that'd sound with this Max-Hendroomy thing of turning this epidemic into something like that. As
if it's a 80s WWF wrestling match
But then also the scientists I don't think are saying lock yourself inside.(yet) Pretty disturbing to call 'Eh well try to avoid people' as Social Distancing.
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 11:49 PM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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While I'm sympathetic with the idea that the relative magnitude of this threat *might* be on the same order as "hit by a car", and that to the extent that panic behaviour has it's own risks and unintended consequences, I think there is a qualitative issue at hand as well.
It is as if the number of cars on the road just doubled and some of the drivers come from the UK right-hand-driving sphere such that while the risk of death has only roughly *doubled*, our instincts are not tuned to where to look (left/right) when we step out into the street. Our intuitions just aren't well tuned to this.
Unfortunately, quantitative numbers are exponential not linear,
so even if you could compare it to "hit by a car", it doesn't
calibrate for crazy fluctuations in traffic. Like being the Frog
in Frogger right after a level-up.
This just out from James Tamplin (founder of Firebase), providing
a slightly finer grain model to refer to and build from: https://covidactnow.org/ . It
is worthwhile to read the assumptions that this model uses. It is
all transparent and implemented as spreadsheets that can be
downloaded and tweaked if you choose. It is strictly statistical
and aggregated at the State level, but does not take into account
variations in population density and personal encounters (this is
a case where the style of mixing implied by suburban car-culture
may be a lot safer than urban pedestrian-culture).
Mary and I have had to calibrate our sensitivity to risk several times during this episode.
Blah blah, - Steve
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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@Stephen Smith (while I find out how to a reply to the right person in Gmail): aaaaah ok. That's what I'm concerned about with distorted information. From what I've heard, and read on this list it's basically the fear of the unknown and some really smart, and clever people making as best guesses as possible. Basically injured frogs, with as you say a lot more drivers and having to guess what the heck to do. Is it really also extra equipment (health buffs for that poor frog) even archaic Negative Pressure Rooms is simply not enough? Thanks that does help with the other side of needed perspective. On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 9:48 AM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5
Although kind of a silly simulation, and since we are offering simulations up, here is one that I wrote for the Santa Fe Institute last year: Jon ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
Yes, exactly.
So multiply 1.8 million by 10x. There may be several factors that contribute to the worse patient profile in Italy, but certainly a large part of it is just overwhelming their capacity. I was glad Roger forwarded the Emily Landon segment. Sanjay Gupta did a similarly good one on Colbert last week. This idea that we have responsibilities to each other was a prominent part of his overall message, and the one that I have wished to hear put forward more often. Eric
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by thompnickson2
All, Nothing more pathetic than a man answering his own emails, but SOMEBODY has to do it. Not withstanding John’s reassurances that we aren’t the sort of people to let an election slide by, even in the roughest time, I still want to talk about as tyranny as the opportunistic infection that will kill us all. One of the natural limits on tyranny, ultimately perhaps the only one, is that people can put down their tools and go out into the street. Now, in a pandemic, that is not possible. But with social media we have perhaps the equivalent of digital “streets”. The trouble is, of course, that social media can be choked off. Also, is there any equivalent to the effect that a million person march has on the city in which they are marching? I guess I am wishing you smart, up-to-date complexity theorists would devote some time to the political phase change that could happen sometime between the November election date and the inauguration. Sometime between now and November we have to design, implement, and legitimize non-in-person elections in 50 states. And we have to do that while staving off the worst effects of a pandemic. And we have to do it while a substantial proportion of our leader-class is incapacitated with illness. And the rest of them are frantically trying to stay alive by not being in contact with anyone, least-wise voters. How do we stay connected as polity? How do we go out into the streets? It’s a perfect storm. Now, I did not get to the FRIAM meeting until well into Stephen’s presentation, so it’s possible some of this was covered. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: [hidden email] <[hidden email]> Hi, Y’all, Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two sessions, equally interesting, but quite different. Session one was an expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission. Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing, psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it. Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so paradoxical: “One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come through it.” Most actionable suggestion of the day: Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public. Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question: How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable. One the one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop. I know how to handle it individually: If I start to panic, I just climb into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep. But conversation-wise, I am not so sure. Perhaps agree to devote small portion of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary? Assuming we can do that, here is my suggestion for a catastrophic discussion: Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders are closed? Draft out-of-school college students?) Our country is run by a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case, because they are the most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they bring down the whole? Ok. Now I am going to bed. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Jon Zingale At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens. What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people that is consistent with the social distancing strategy? For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model, or simulation. Jon ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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