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Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

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Gillian Densmore

Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

For how ass the weather is because of artic air?

I am prepared for to see a lot of fur-fetched replies. We can Wolf down some facts, or just retriever it out as just how it is.

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jon zingale

Re: Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

∂u/∂t + (u . ∇)u - ν∇²u = -∇w + g ?

Sent from the Friam mailing list archive at Nabble.com.

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Jochen Fromm-5

Re: Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

∂u/∂t + (u . ∇)u - ν∇²u = -∇w + g
looks a bit like a wave equation
∂²u/∂²t - c²∇²u = 0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_equation

...but it is not a second order differential equation because it contains only a normal derivative like the Schrödinger equation from Quantum Mechanics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation

Maybe one of our Mathematicians knows?

-J.

-------- Original message --------

From: jon zingale <[hidden email]>

Date: 2/16/21 20:17 (GMT+01:00)

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

<img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/On73X2FIJ1qta/giphy.gif" onmouseover="imageMousePointerUpdate(true)" onmouseout="imageMousePointerUpdate(false)">
∂u/∂t + (u . ∇)u - ν∇²u = -∇w + g ?

Jochen Fromm-5

Re: Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

In reply to this post by Gillian Densmore

The first part looks indeed more like a heat equation

∂u/∂t - v∇²u = 0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_equation

I would say it is a special kind of heat equation.

-J.

-------- Original message --------

From: Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]>

Date: 2/16/21 21:42 (GMT+01:00)

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

∂u/∂t + (u . ∇)u - ν∇²u = -∇w + g
looks a bit like a wave equation
∂²u/∂²t - c²∇²u = 0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_equation

Maybe one of our Mathematicians knows?

-J.

-------- Original message --------

From: jon zingale <[hidden email]>

Date: 2/16/21 20:17 (GMT+01:00)

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

Jochen Fromm-5

Re: Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

In reply to this post by Gillian Densmore

Oh now I found it.

∂u/∂t + (u . ∇)u - ν∇²u = -∇w + g

is the convective form of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_equations

It is interesting that it is similar to the heat equation and the wave equation.

-J.

-------- Original message --------

From: Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]>

Date: 2/16/21 22:01 (GMT+01:00)

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

The first part looks indeed more like a heat equation

∂u/∂t - v∇²u = 0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_equation

I would say it is a special kind of heat equation.

-J.

-------- Original message --------

From: Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]>

Date: 2/16/21 21:42 (GMT+01:00)

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

∂u/∂t + (u . ∇)u - ν∇²u = -∇w + g
looks a bit like a wave equation
∂²u/∂²t - c²∇²u = 0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_equation

Maybe one of our Mathematicians knows?

-J.

-------- Original message --------

From: jon zingale <[hidden email]>

Date: 2/16/21 20:17 (GMT+01:00)

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

<img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/On73X2FIJ1qta/giphy.gif" onmouseover="imageMousePointerUpdate(true)" onmouseout="imageMousePointerUpdate(false)" style="">
∂u/∂t + (u . ∇)u - ν∇²u = -∇w + g ?

David Eric Smith

Re: Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

In reply to this post by Gillian Densmore

Gillian,

I was told several years ago (2018) by a specialist in this area that these extreme southerly dips in the jet stream are a consequence of the weakening of the polar vortex on Earth. It happens I was in Korea at a time corresponding to the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, and we were freezing our asses off under a cold spell similar to this one. It too was due to a very southerly dip in the jet stream. So it was timely for this scientist to talk on the subject, and I got to sit with him at lunch and ask more questions.

I have an impression the jet stream functions, at least during part of the year, a little like a wall between arctic air contained to the north of it, and temperate or equatorial air to the south side. So when it swings very far south, the domain of arctic air extends further south than it normally would, and since we don’t normally experience winter arctic air, it seems very cold. But apparently these more extreme north-south swings are due to weakening of the vortex — when it turns faster the jet stream has less severe excursions.

My impression, in looking at jet stream patterns after that, is that when we see these swings we tend to see them in three places around the world: the central-to-eastern US, Eastern Europe or very-west Asia, and then over the Korean Peninsula. I haven’t checked whether they are doing the same thing just now.

(The fact that the jet stream likes to make these polygonal shapes reminds me of the pictures of the hexagonal patch on the north (?) pole of Saturn, the boundary of which I think is a similar kind of formation (roughly). The presence of continents on Earth causes this to not be a pure fluid phenomenon as it would be on Saturn.)

The non-intuitive part of it is that the vortex weakens because the arctic is not as cold as it should be. So we feel more cold, but on a global average, we are less cold. A similar phenomenon becomes more intuitive during the summer, when northern Sweden is experiencing uncontrollable forest fires.

n.b. There may be things in what I said above that are wrong because I haven’t understood them or didn’t hear it all correctly. So do find somebody who does this for a living to ask.

Eric

On Feb 16, 2021, at 1:58 PM, Gillian Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

For how ass the weather is because of artic air?

I am prepared for to see a lot of fur-fetched replies. We can Wolf down some facts, or just retriever it out as just how it is.
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Gillian Densmore

Re: Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

Eric, Ahh. ok. As it's been explained to me, basically like say the jet stream is a wall(sort of) it keeps it place like much smaller vortexes like dust devels (sort of). Something about carbon pulling the cold har the polls usually keep in place down both up down and north and south down.

What i don't get is why we get them now. How is that working? Like is it directly the c02 somehow bonding ocasionally? pushing the jet streams around? or more indirect because more energy and heat in the air somehow causes the colder heavier air to sink to the ground just enough it causes so much to practically freeze?

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 2:29 PM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Gillian,

I was told several years ago (2018) by a specialist in this area that these extreme southerly dips in the jet stream are a consequence of the weakening of the polar vortex on Earth. It happens I was in Korea at a time corresponding to the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, and we were freezing our asses off under a cold spell similar to this one. It too was due to a very southerly dip in the jet stream. So it was timely for this scientist to talk on the subject, and I got to sit with him at lunch and ask more questions.

I have an impression the jet stream functions, at least during part of the year, a little like a wall between arctic air contained to the north of it, and temperate or equatorial air to the south side. So when it swings very far south, the domain of arctic air extends further south than it normally would, and since we don’t normally experience winter arctic air, it seems very cold. But apparently these more extreme north-south swings are due to weakening of the vortex — when it turns faster the jet stream has less severe excursions.

My impression, in looking at jet stream patterns after that, is that when we see these swings we tend to see them in three places around the world: the central-to-eastern US, Eastern Europe or very-west Asia, and then over the Korean Peninsula. I haven’t checked whether they are doing the same thing just now.

(The fact that the jet stream likes to make these polygonal shapes reminds me of the pictures of the hexagonal patch on the north (?) pole of Saturn, the boundary of which I think is a similar kind of formation (roughly). The presence of continents on Earth causes this to not be a pure fluid phenomenon as it would be on Saturn.)

The non-intuitive part of it is that the vortex weakens because the arctic is not as cold as it should be. So we feel more cold, but on a global average, we are less cold. A similar phenomenon becomes more intuitive during the summer, when northern Sweden is experiencing uncontrollable forest fires.

n.b. There may be things in what I said above that are wrong because I haven’t understood them or didn’t hear it all correctly. So do find somebody who does this for a living to ask.

Eric

On Feb 16, 2021, at 1:58 PM, Gillian Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

For how ass the weather is because of artic air?

I am prepared for to see a lot of fur-fetched replies. We can Wolf down some facts, or just retriever it out as just how it is.
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David Eric Smith

Re: Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

I don’t know the answer to your question below, Gillian, but I think it is something along the following lines:

There is a natural conveyor on Earth, with air warming and rising (on average) near the equator and cooling and sinking at the pole. That means it should run equator-ward down lower to the ground, and pole-ward at high altitudes. I am sure it is not simple like that, but on average something like that seems like it should be happening.

But because the Earth spins, air coming from the equator has too much angular momentum to just move north; it will spin faster than the ground beneath it as it drifts northward. Air near ground level should do the opposite, though maybe there are frictional effects near the surface that don’t allow the air to slide back as much near the ground as the equatorial air overshoots up high.

Anyway, I think two main features result. One is the polar vortex, and the other is the jet stream. The directionality of the polar vortex would make sense as the excess angular momentum from north-moving air. I have _not_ every learned or worked through the fluid mechanics that would explain the jet stream.

As I understand it, just because the arctic isn’t cooling as much due to excess CO2 and less ice-reflection during the summer months, that conveyor is weakened and the polar vortex is slower. What I believe I heard from the atmosphere specialist is that it is the slowing of the vortex that results in the more wavy jet stream.

So the effect of CO2 would just be the one we already know: that it traps heat in the atmosphere and leads to overall heating, and that the amount of heating is greater at the poles than the equator, so their temperatures are less different. That is why the conveyor would slow down.

Best,

Eric

On Feb 16, 2021, at 4:39 PM, Gillian Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

Eric, Ahh. ok. As it's been explained to me, basically like say the jet stream is a wall(sort of) it keeps it place like much smaller vortexes like dust devels (sort of). Something about carbon pulling the cold har the polls usually keep in place down both up down and north and south down.
What i don't get is why we get them now. How is that working? Like is it directly the c02 somehow bonding ocasionally? pushing the jet streams around? or more indirect because more energy and heat in the air somehow causes the colder heavier air to sink to the ground just enough it causes so much to practically freeze?

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 2:29 PM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
Gillian,

I was told several years ago (2018) by a specialist in this area that these extreme southerly dips in the jet stream are a consequence of the weakening of the polar vortex on Earth. It happens I was in Korea at a time corresponding to the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, and we were freezing our asses off under a cold spell similar to this one. It too was due to a very southerly dip in the jet stream. So it was timely for this scientist to talk on the subject, and I got to sit with him at lunch and ask more questions.

I have an impression the jet stream functions, at least during part of the year, a little like a wall between arctic air contained to the north of it, and temperate or equatorial air to the south side. So when it swings very far south, the domain of arctic air extends further south than it normally would, and since we don’t normally experience winter arctic air, it seems very cold. But apparently these more extreme north-south swings are due to weakening of the vortex — when it turns faster the jet stream has less severe excursions.

My impression, in looking at jet stream patterns after that, is that when we see these swings we tend to see them in three places around the world: the central-to-eastern US, Eastern Europe or very-west Asia, and then over the Korean Peninsula. I haven’t checked whether they are doing the same thing just now.

(The fact that the jet stream likes to make these polygonal shapes reminds me of the pictures of the hexagonal patch on the north (?) pole of Saturn, the boundary of which I think is a similar kind of formation (roughly). The presence of continents on Earth causes this to not be a pure fluid phenomenon as it would be on Saturn.)

The non-intuitive part of it is that the vortex weakens because the arctic is not as cold as it should be. So we feel more cold, but on a global average, we are less cold. A similar phenomenon becomes more intuitive during the summer, when northern Sweden is experiencing uncontrollable forest fires.

n.b. There may be things in what I said above that are wrong because I haven’t understood them or didn’t hear it all correctly. So do find somebody who does this for a living to ask.

Eric

On Feb 16, 2021, at 1:58 PM, Gillian Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

For how ass the weather is because of artic air?

I am prepared for to see a lot of fur-fetched replies. We can Wolf down some facts, or just retriever it out as just how it is.
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thompnickson2

Re: Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

In reply to this post by David Eric Smith

Gillian, n all,

This is my story and I am sticking to it:

Air rises in the intertropical convergence zone which roughly separates the northern hemisphere atmosphere from the southern. The air rising in this zone sheds its moisture and moves poleward, and is jerked rightward until it consists of a dry current moving West to East in the northern hemisphere, at about 30 degrees, the sub tropical jet. It’s moisture relieved, it is dry and so tends to sink. The return flow descends (and warms) forming the subtropical highs, the subtropical inversion, and eventually, a current of most air at the surface moving steadily south westward, the trade winds. This whole cycle is called a Hadley Cell. There are two more Hadley cells, one at around 30-50 degrees, and the other, the polar vortex. (Do not over dramatize the polar vortex; fill wash basin with warm water and a little suds, get it rotating in a counter clockwise direction as best you can, and then let it go by itself. There’s your polar vortex.) Between the polar vortex and the midlatitude Hadley cell, there is another Jetstream at 40-60 degrees N. which tends to seal off the arctic from mid latitudes to some degree. Jetstreams can be more or less sinuous and more or less synchronized. The poleward humps in a jet stream are called ridges and the equator-ward dips are called troughs. There is some sort of relation between the velocity of a jet stream and the amplitude of it’s troughs and ridges, but I am hazy on that. Because of their clockwise circulation, ridges tend to capture and foster high pressure areas; Because of their anti-clockwise circulation, troughs tend to capture and foster low pressure areas.

The speed of jetsteams is governed by the temperature contrasts between Polar and equatorial regions. In the winter hemisphere, as you move poleward, days shorten and the sun angle becomes lower, each effect enhancing the other, and, therefore, pole-to-equator contrasts are enhanced, and jet stream velocities are increased; in the summer hemisphere, the effect of day length and sun-angle compensate for one another, air temperature contrasts are greatly reduced, and Jetstream speeds are reduced.

Also, the ITCZ is constantly moving north and south, so that the summer hemisphere is squished by comparison with the northern and the structure of the Hadley cells is less clearly defined. Local effects take over. Also the two jet streams become “shorter”, since as they are moved northward they have less distance to complete their circle around the globe. There is apparently a natural rhythm for every diameter of travel so as the jetstreams move N and S. they become more or less chaotic as they approach natural rhythms for a given diameter.

A line between warmer air to the south and colder air to the north tends to form under the polar and the southern Jet, called the Arctic Front and the Mid-latitude front, respectively. When the jets are synchronized and the amplitude is great, then cold air at the surface is allowed to plunge southward , beneath the warmer air aloft. And Bob’s Your Uncle, everybody starts talking about the polar vortex.

Nick

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 3:29 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nothing to do with nick, do we have a formula

Gillian,

n.b. There may be things in what I said above that are wrong because I haven’t understood them or didn’t hear it all correctly. So do find somebody who does this for a living to ask.

Eric

On Feb 16, 2021, at 1:58 PM, Gillian Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

For how ass the weather is because of artic air?

I am prepared for to see a lot of fur-fetched replies. We can Wolf down some facts, or just retriever it out as just how it is.
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