Nature: Ball reviews Miller, Page, and Epstein

[Roger Critchlow-2]

Social science goes virtual p647

Mathematical models could help us re-engage with reality rather than trying
to reinvent it.

Philip Ball reviews *Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to
Computational Models of Social Life* by John H. Miller & Scott E. Page
and *Generative
Social Science: Studies in Agent Based Computational Modeling* by Joshua M.
Epstein

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v448/n7154/full/448647a.html

-- rec --
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[Marcus G. Daniels]

Right, "generative social science", a.k.a. "made up stuff"...

[Owen Densmore]

Could you pass on the text?  The article apparently requires a  
subscription.

     -- Owen


On Aug 9, 2007, at 9:45 AM, Roger Critchlow wrote:

> Social science goes virtual p647
>
> Mathematical models could help us re-engage with reality rather  
> than trying
> to reinvent it.
>
> Philip Ball reviews *Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to
> Computational Models of Social Life* by John H. Miller & Scott E. Page
> and *Generative
> Social Science: Studies in Agent Based Computational Modeling* by  
> Joshua M.
> Epstein
>
> http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v448/n7154/full/448647a.html
>
> -- rec --
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

[Roger Critchlow-2]

On 8/9/07, Marcus G. Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> Right, "generative social science", a.k.a. "made up stuff"...


Speaking of which, for those in the vicinity of Los Alamos:

Thursday, August 9th,2007

>
> 4:00 pm - 5:00 pm
>
> CNLS Conference Room (TA-3, Bldg 1690)
>
> Gang Recruitment and Growth: A Cellular Automata and Directed Graph Approach to
> the Statistics of Gang Sizes
>
> William I. Newman
> UCLA
>
> Cellular automata models can be developed to describe the evolution of emergent
> dynamical systems that maintain a discrete character, including those with an
> implicit hierarchical character. Moreover, these models can be related to
> directed graphs. These methods have found widespread application in condensed
> matter physics (e.g., diffusion limited aggregation and crystal growth,
> sandpiles andself-organized criticality) as well as in earth and environmental
> physics (e.g., models of earthquakes and river networks). In particular, models
> developed for forest fires are manifestly complex systems that show
> well-preserved scaling laws relating to the frequency of forest fires relative
> to their size. In sociological studies of conflict and deadly quarrels, similar
> statistical scaling laws have been observed, e.g., Richardson, with identical
> power-law indices. In earlier work, Gabrielov, Newman, and Turcotte (199?)
> succeeded in deriving from first principles those scaling laws. Here, we show
> that a simple redefinition of terms makes it possible for the statistics of
> gangs to be obtained from these other cellular automata models. In particular,
> by equivalencing the recruitment of gang members in the sociological problem
> with the planting of trees in the environmental problem, the observed
> statistics of gang populations and their prevalence can be derived.
>
> LANL Host: Mac Hyman, T-7
>
>
>

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[Tom Johnson]

Hey, how can we get this fellow William I. Newman to do a Wedtech?

-tj

On 8/9/07, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:

>
>
>
> On 8/9/07, Marcus G. Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
> >
> > Right, "generative social science", a.k.a. "made up stuff"...
>
>
> Speaking of which, for those in the vicinity of Los Alamos:
>
> Thursday, August 9th,2007
> >
> > 4:00 pm - 5:00 pm
> >
> > CNLS Conference Room (TA-3, Bldg 1690)
> >
> > Gang Recruitment and Growth: A Cellular Automata and Directed Graph Approach to
> > the Statistics of Gang Sizes
> >
> >
> > William I. Newman
> > UCLA
> >
> > Cellular automata models can be developed to describe the evolution of emergent
> > dynamical systems that maintain a discrete character, including those with an
> > implicit hierarchical character. Moreover, these models can be related to
> >
> > directed graphs. These methods have found widespread application in condensed
> > matter physics (e.g., diffusion limited aggregation and crystal growth,
> > sandpiles andself-organized criticality) as well as in earth and environmental
> >
> > physics (e.g., models of earthquakes and river networks). In particular, models
> > developed for forest fires are manifestly complex systems that show
> > well-preserved scaling laws relating to the frequency of forest fires relative
> >
> > to their size. In sociological studies of conflict and deadly quarrels, similar
> > statistical scaling laws have been observed, e.g., Richardson, with identical
> > power-law indices. In earlier work, Gabrielov, Newman, and Turcotte (199?)
> >
> > succeeded in deriving from first principles those scaling laws. Here, we show
> > that a simple redefinition of terms makes it possible for the statistics of
> > gangs to be obtained from these other cellular automata models. In particular,
> >
> > by equivalencing the recruitment of gang members in the sociological problem
> > with the planting of trees in the environmental problem, the observed
> > statistics of gang populations and their prevalence can be derived.
> >
> >
> > LANL Host: Mac Hyman, T-7
> >
> >
> >
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

--
==========================================
J. T. Johnson
Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA
www.analyticjournalism.com
505.577.6482(c)                                 505.473.9646(h)
http://www.jtjohnson.com                 tom at jtjohnson.us

"You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the
existing model obsolete."
                                                   -- Buckminster Fuller
==========================================
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[Marcus G. Daniels]

At least in this study there is an empirical result to shoot for (see
page 28 of the talk below)

https://www.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/chs2007/chs2007_6818.pdf
>
>         In particular,
>         by equivalencing the recruitment of gang members in the sociological problem
>         with the planting of trees in the environmental problem, the observed
>         statistics of gang populations and their prevalence can be derived.
>              
>

[Carl Tollander]

"the observed statistics....can be derived".  Indeed.

Roger Critchlow wrote:

>
>
> On 8/9/07, *Marcus G. Daniels* <marcus at snoutfarm.com
> <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
>
>     Right, "generative social science", a.k.a. "made up stuff"...
>
>
> Speaking of which, for those in the vicinity of Los Alamos:
>
>     Thursday, August 9th,2007
>
>     4:00 pm - 5:00 pm
>
>     CNLS Conference Room (TA-3, Bldg 1690)
>
>     Gang Recruitment and Growth: A Cellular Automata and Directed Graph Approach to
>     the Statistics of Gang Sizes
>
>
>     William I. Newman
>     UCLA
>
>     Cellular automata models can be developed to describe the evolution of emergent
>     dynamical systems that maintain a discrete character, including those with an
>     implicit hierarchical character. Moreover, these models can be related to
>
>     directed graphs. These methods have found widespread application in condensed
>     matter physics (e.g., diffusion limited aggregation and crystal growth,
>     sandpiles andself-organized criticality) as well as in earth and environmental
>
>     physics (e.g., models of earthquakes and river networks). In particular, models
>     developed for forest fires are manifestly complex systems that show
>     well-preserved scaling laws relating to the frequency of forest fires relative
>
>     to their size. In sociological studies of conflict and deadly quarrels, similar
>     statistical scaling laws have been observed, e.g., Richardson, with identical
>     power-law indices. In earlier work, Gabrielov, Newman, and Turcotte (199?)
>
>     succeeded in deriving from first principles those scaling laws. Here, we show
>     that a simple redefinition of terms makes it possible for the statistics of
>     gangs to be obtained from these other cellular automata models. In particular,
>
>     by equivalencing the recruitment of gang members in the sociological problem
>     with the planting of trees in the environmental problem, the observed
>     statistics of gang populations and their prevalence can be derived.
>
>
>     LANL Host: Mac Hyman, T-7
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org