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More on social mobility

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David Eric Smith

More on social mobility

To continue to try to add raw material to the discussion that EricC took up on this when I made some overly-simple claims earlier, here is a Brookings summary article on work by Raj Chetty (cited in the earlier thread as well):

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2018/01/11/raj-chetty-in-14-charts-big-findings-on-opportunity-and-mobility-we-should-know/

A thing I find striking in Chetty’s output is how many compilations he can produce that make statistical analysis superfluous. There are data that are so close to a perfect line that there is little for a regression to do, or that are so consistent with time-constancy that there is no suggestion of a signal to look for other than stasis. A lot of it seems to come from finding good conditions on which to bin data, though the bin categories do not seem highly artificial or cherry-picked, to me.

I got to the above from an article by Edsall that, again, seems to me well-sourced:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/09/opinion/trump-social-status-resentment.html

So probably necessary to refuse to speak in sound-bites about income or wealth mobility, and to use more complete sentences that refer to specific conditions, even though if one has that granularity, there are interpretations of the sound-bite that mobility has been badly impaired that still seem correct, to me.

EricS

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: More on social mobility

But were there social insulating factors that are now absent?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/09/opinion/trump-social-status-resentment.html

..that there was once a “sufficient” level to achieve?

Marcus

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Wednesday, December 9, 2020 5:25 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: [FRIAM] More on social mobility

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2018/01/11/raj-chetty-in-14-charts-big-findings-on-opportunity-and-mobility-we-should-know/

I got to the above from an article by Edsall that, again, seems to me well-sourced:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/09/opinion/trump-social-status-resentment.html

EricS

gepr

Re: More on social mobility

I think the Kurer quote on automation addresses that:
"that it is voters who are and remain in jobs susceptible to automation and digitalization, so called routine jobs, who vote for the radical right and not those who actually lose their routine jobs. The latter are much more likely to abstain from politics altogether."

... something we discussed relative to materially open (robots vs. unskilled human labor) requirements for a permanent underclass.

On 12/9/20 7:00 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> ..that there was once a “sufficient” level to achieve?

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

gepr

Re: More on social mobility

In reply to this post by David Eric Smith

I'm a little confused by these 2 plots from Chetty et al 2014: http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/assets/documents/mobility_geo.pdf

From the ranked plot, it seems like an equitable leveling/redistribution is at work. But from the raw income plot, it simply seems like children make less money than their parents (an absolute reduction in quality of life). These seem paradoxical to me, meaning that perhaps I haven't grokked all the data, or the particular data being plotted is inadequate to express the trend. I confess I'm motivated by stories from Pinker and Shermer about absolute improvements in the world (considered massively, not particularly), which leads me to the leveling interpretation.

On 12/9/20 5:25 AM, David Eric Smith wrote:
> To continue to try to add raw material to the discussion that EricC took up on this when I made some overly-simple claims earlier, here is a Brookings summary article on work by Raj Chetty (cited in the earlier thread as well):
> https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2018/01/11/raj-chetty-in-14-charts-big-findings-on-opportunity-and-mobility-we-should-know/ <https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2018/01/11/raj-chetty-in-14-charts-big-findings-on-opportunity-and-mobility-we-should-know/>
> A thing I find striking in Chetty’s output is how many compilations he can produce that make statistical analysis superfluous. There are data that are so close to a perfect line that there is little for a regression to do, or that are so consistent with time-constancy that there is no suggestion of a signal to look for other than stasis. A lot of it seems to come from finding good conditions on which to bin data, though the bin categories do not seem highly artificial or cherry-picked, to me.

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

David Eric Smith

Re: More on social mobility

Jesus, Glen,

How did you read a 104-page paper in the last 2 hours?

Let me try to catch up….

Eric

> On Dec 9, 2020, at 10:22 AM, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> I'm a little confused by these 2 plots from Chetty et al 2014: https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fwww.equality-of-opportunity.org%2fassets%2fdocuments%2fmobility_geo.pdf&c=E,1,EWLu4cM_9RwY2BIbaDWKKgnkDtUCHDzrO-J-aGqpBw4Ff7K3Z0iBK8K87ztnQmoWOqmCGbvhLD5lpb9D6wXlf043pQOzHh-o0zQtaWR35HQ,&typo=1
>
> From the ranked plot, it seems like an equitable leveling/redistribution is at work. But from the raw income plot, it simply seems like children make less money than their parents (an absolute reduction in quality of life). These seem paradoxical to me, meaning that perhaps I haven't grokked all the data, or the particular data being plotted is inadequate to express the trend. I confess I'm motivated by stories from Pinker and Shermer about absolute improvements in the world (considered massively, not particularly), which leads me to the leveling interpretation.
>
> On 12/9/20 5:25 AM, David Eric Smith wrote:
>> To continue to try to add raw material to the discussion that EricC took up on this when I made some overly-simple claims earlier, here is a Brookings summary article on work by Raj Chetty (cited in the earlier thread as well):
>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.brookings.edu%2fblog%2fsocial-mobility-memos%2f2018%2f01%2f11%2fraj-chetty-in-14-charts-big-findings-on-opportunity-and-mobility-we-should-know%2f&c=E,1,UcbKXU_d6UupdLMKHI8ROyxSQtJjho_dT-rHCNEARSkLR3ffOT4MD4nYN6Yd9CnUBw08BKoUW_YLyQfE8BmiPWqAbNd0BFFB8byy_214glaH6F6LFgQ,&typo=1 <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.brookings.edu%2fblog%2fsocial-mobility-memos%2f2018%2f01%2f11%2fraj-chetty-in-14-charts-big-findings-on-opportunity-and-mobility-we-should-know%2f&c=E,1,v8x5Sfs8Fr2BBCXzt1Omp2bJoA7X8soDHGyXBmN4iIaQqbxjm7Vi1tYFCGCKG-UQQvgkkpM2NqPdlVCvdIZ8JfdJInsEpRQmMDV_eGwcuFFAW4iWhus,&typo=1>
>> A thing I find striking in Chetty’s output is how many compilations he can produce that make statistical analysis superfluous. There are data that are so close to a perfect line that there is little for a regression to do, or that are so consistent with time-constancy that there is no suggestion of a signal to look for other than stasis. A lot of it seems to come from finding good conditions on which to bin data, though the bin categories do not seem highly artificial or cherry-picked, to me.
>
>
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gepr

Re: More on social mobility

Ha! I don't actually read anymore. I only skim. When I try to read, I fall asleep. But that raises an interesting point. I'm sure everyone on this list has an algorithm for digesting papers. I have to read so many papers on so many things I'm just NOT interested in, that I've honed that algorithm quite a bit. It is (usually):

1. Read the abstract and conclusion (if any).
2. Read the Table headers and legends and skim the data.
3. Read the Figure headers, legends, and axes.
4. Find the citations of the Tables and Figures in the prose and read those paragraphs.
5. Scan the References.
6. Go back to the Figures and try to grok each story.
7. Go back to the Tables and try to grok each story.
8. Read the rest of the paper.

I think this works well for technical papers. It fails utterly for philosophy ... and for novels. 8^D

On 12/9/20 7:38 AM, David Eric Smith wrote:
> How did you read a 104-page paper in the last 2 hours?

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: More on social mobility

In reply to this post by gepr

It could be that the social status hypothesis is just wrong. To me it is a different kind of hypothesis.
The play by the rules, do your job, be white and Christian, was enough to get respect. Clearly there are reasonable bounds on income to achieve this, but if everyone is sort of from the same mold then that's an sustainable economy. And the growth after WWII was kind of artificial anyway. Why shouldn't adjusted income be flat? The factor of 5 or more in the cost of similar properties depending on location in the country says to me the U.S. has fractured into different economies. I don't see any sign of inequality slowing down.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, December 9, 2020 7:06 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] More on social mobility

I think the Kurer quote on automation addresses that:
"that it is voters who are and remain in jobs susceptible to automation and digitalization, so called routine jobs, who vote for the radical right and not those who actually lose their routine jobs. The latter are much more likely to abstain from politics altogether."

... something we discussed relative to materially open (robots vs. unskilled human labor) requirements for a permanent underclass.

On 12/9/20 7:00 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> ..that there was once a “sufficient” level to achieve?

--
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gepr

Re: More on social mobility

Your proposal(s) is (are) too densely formed. Replacing the social status hypothesis with a discontinuous ("fractured") collection of different economies rings true to me. But hybrid (cyber-physical) systems are common, I think. (Common in the Ulam sense of non-elephant animals.) If "economy" already naturally includes mechanisms for the integration of discontinuous sub-economies, then can it explain this political polarization? Maybe it's necessary but insufficient?

On 12/9/20 8:54 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> It could be that the social status hypothesis is just wrong. To me it is a different kind of hypothesis.
> The play by the rules, do your job, be white and Christian, was enough to get respect. Clearly there are reasonable bounds on income to achieve this, but if everyone is sort of from the same mold then that's an sustainable economy. And the growth after WWII was kind of artificial anyway. Why shouldn't adjusted income be flat? The factor of 5 or more in the cost of similar properties depending on location in the country says to me the U.S. has fractured into different economies. I don't see any sign of inequality slowing down.

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: More on social mobility

Well I wasn't making a proposal, merely referencing the work mentioned in Edsall's column.
I haven't thought about how to gather evidence it is true, but I can say personally it takes a certain vigilance not to allow perception define reality. I know other relatively intelligent people who have really lost it when they felt they had no esteem of their colleagues, but in their mind deserved it. I recognized before others he was coming unwound, I think. Managing these real or potential rejection situations sometimes this means controlling perception, other times it means defying it. Comfort with isolation is not easy for everyone.

In terms of the possibility of social mobility, I think of a visitor a few degrees of separation from my family that simply couldn't conceive of the costs of the bay area. He acted as if it was a different country that he was visiting, one that he would never even think to be a part of. I tend to attribute this setting of expectations to local influences. The group polices its own to encourage the members to maintain the group on whatever features its happens to have: In effect, "You will fail and be rejected by us and by them." Even if the group has a light touch, intelligent individuals can be prone to ruminating and depression. In this way, children of rich or well-off families have a more optimistic view of the future than those of poor ones. The success of the parents shows the child that trying is worthwhile and they can puncture the membranes of different organizations they encounter.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Thursday, December 10, 2020 8:51 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] More on social mobility

Your proposal(s) is (are) too densely formed. Replacing the social status hypothesis with a discontinuous ("fractured") collection of different economies rings true to me. But hybrid (cyber-physical) systems are common, I think. (Common in the Ulam sense of non-elephant animals.) If "economy" already naturally includes mechanisms for the integration of discontinuous sub-economies, then can it explain this political polarization? Maybe it's necessary but insufficient?

On 12/9/20 8:54 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> It could be that the social status hypothesis is just wrong. To me it is a different kind of hypothesis.
> The play by the rules, do your job, be white and Christian, was enough to get respect. Clearly there are reasonable bounds on income to achieve this, but if everyone is sort of from the same mold then that's an sustainable economy. And the growth after WWII was kind of artificial anyway. Why shouldn't adjusted income be flat? The factor of 5 or more in the cost of similar properties depending on location in the country says to me the U.S. has fractured into different economies. I don't see any sign of inequality slowing down.

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: More on social mobility

A review on how poverty and mental health are mutually reinforcing.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6522/eaay0214

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Thursday, December 10, 2020 10:41 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] More on social mobility

Well I wasn't making a proposal, merely referencing the work mentioned in Edsall's column.
I haven't thought about how to gather evidence it is true, but I can say personally it takes a certain vigilance not to allow perception define reality. I know other relatively intelligent people who have really lost it when they felt they had no esteem of their colleagues, but in their mind deserved it. I recognized before others he was coming unwound, I think. Managing these real or potential rejection situations sometimes this means controlling perception, other times it means defying it. Comfort with isolation is not easy for everyone.

In terms of the possibility of social mobility, I think of a visitor a few degrees of separation from my family that simply couldn't conceive of the costs of the bay area. He acted as if it was a different country that he was visiting, one that he would never even think to be a part of. I tend to attribute this setting of expectations to local influences. The group polices its own to encourage the members to maintain the group on whatever features its happens to have: In effect, "You will fail and be rejected by us and by them." Even if the group has a light touch, intelligent individuals can be prone to ruminating and depression. In this way, children of rich or well-off families have a more optimistic view of the future than those of poor ones. The success of the parents shows the child that trying is worthwhile and they can puncture the membranes of different organizations they encounter.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Thursday, December 10, 2020 8:51 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] More on social mobility

Your proposal(s) is (are) too densely formed. Replacing the social status hypothesis with a discontinuous ("fractured") collection of different economies rings true to me. But hybrid (cyber-physical) systems are common, I think. (Common in the Ulam sense of non-elephant animals.) If "economy" already naturally includes mechanisms for the integration of discontinuous sub-economies, then can it explain this political polarization? Maybe it's necessary but insufficient?

On 12/9/20 8:54 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> It could be that the social status hypothesis is just wrong. To me it is a different kind of hypothesis.
> The play by the rules, do your job, be white and Christian, was enough to get respect. Clearly there are reasonable bounds on income to achieve this, but if everyone is sort of from the same mold then that's an sustainable economy. And the growth after WWII was kind of artificial anyway. Why shouldn't adjusted income be flat? The factor of 5 or more in the cost of similar properties depending on location in the country says to me the U.S. has fractured into different economies. I don't see any sign of inequality slowing down.

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