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How soon until AI takes over polling?

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David Eric Smith

How soon until AI takes over polling?

Friam poll:

How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html

If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is likely to vote.

At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any political impact at all.

How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.

So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out of sample.

Eric

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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

In the late 60s I worked on Project Talent in which data for 440,000 high school students was collected and analyzed. This included , test scores, interests, socioeconomic status, etc. I've mentioned this before. The project included longitudinal following of the participants for decades. That following was done by telephone and mail. There were methods for assessing "non-respondent bias" by using aggressive follow-up such as searching for them and doing interviews. That data was used to estimate information about those who were not reached.

Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?

Happy Veterans Day,

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Friam poll:

How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html

If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is likely to vote.

At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any political impact at all.

How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.

So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out of sample.

Eric

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Steve Smith

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

In reply to this post by David Eric Smith

So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out of sample.

Eric

And at what point does this kind of coupling yield a full up "inter-reality" in the Guintatas-Hubler sense?

https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201

My speculation is that we are already (way past) there, which is why the idea of "Russian Interference" in our election via social media feels so trite/mundane if simultaneously hugely threatening.

- Steve

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David Eric Smith

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?

I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have understood) that it is rare and limited. I spent some time looking at the zero-shot language translation, as something I wanted to convene at SFI, with the AI goal of unpacking what was the “universal language” internal representation, and with the linguistics goal of using it in cognate classification and historical reconstruction. Never could get a call-back from any of the google people. But I didn’t think at the time that zero-shot had been unpacked.

Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.

Eric

Happy Veterans Day,

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
Friam poll:

How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html

If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is likely to vote.

At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any political impact at all.

How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.

So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out of sample.

Eric

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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

I used to teach a course called "AI and expert systems" for management students at Carnegie Mellon. I remember that Mycin, a diagnosis system for infectious diseases and one of the most famous expert systems, had some explanation capability. According to Wikipedia, "At the end, it [Mycin] provided a list of possible culprit bacteria ranked from high to low based on the probability of each diagnosis, its confidence in each diagnosis' probability, the reasoning behind each diagnosis..."

But after publishing a few papers in the area I left that field. I assumed, mistakenly it seems, that later AI implementations did the same. Too bad.

By the way, I realize, that AI systems can't assess non-respondent bias in the way it was done in Project Talent but perhaps there is some "machine readable" way to do it.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 9:05 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?

I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have understood) that it is rare and limited. I spent some time looking at the zero-shot language translation, as something I wanted to convene at SFI, with the AI goal of unpacking what was the “universal language” internal representation, and with the linguistics goal of using it in cognate classification and historical reconstruction. Never could get a call-back from any of the google people. But I didn’t think at the time that zero-shot had been unpacked.

Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.

Eric

Happy Veterans Day,

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
Friam poll:

How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html

If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is likely to vote.

At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any political impact at all.

How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.

So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out of sample.

Eric

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David Eric Smith

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

Yes, it seems that the kind of reporting that would be natural for expert systems does not have a good reason to map to deep neural nets. To the extent that I refer to the right architectures as “expert systems”, I think of them as having a knowledge structure dictated by the architect. Reading out parts of it that are used short of the conclusions as an “explanation” integrates naturally into the architecture as it is.

For neural nets, the part that one engineers is a combinatorial parameter space that is both very large and very high-dimensional. The learning loop guide the dynamics into some region in that space, but in what sense “being in that region” is a representation of regularities in the inputs is for the architect to discover, but largely not to have designed.

Thus it seems that “reporting” entails the invention of a representation that is matched both to the particular state of the neural net, which it may not have a way to survey, and to the comprehension standards of people, to which it has no way to be coupled at all. That kind of invention seems like a meta-operation of the process on its own internal state, and a higher-order function.

I wonder if there is some crowd-sourcing protocol, by which the AI could propose representations of its internal state, and a distributed pool of users through feedback to it (kind of like Ken Stanley’s picbreeder) could represent criteria for human comprehension, by which the meta-operation would be implemented as just one more layer of reinforcement learning. Probably end up with 70 million Fox viewers, and 70 million more Elvis fans, standing in for human comprehension.

But I don’t work in this area, and will stop now.

Eric

On Nov 11, 2020, at 11:21 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

I used to teach a course called "AI and expert systems" for management students at Carnegie Mellon. I remember that Mycin, a diagnosis system for infectious diseases and one of the most famous expert systems, had some explanation capability. According to Wikipedia, "At the end, it [Mycin] provided a list of possible culprit bacteria ranked from high to low based on the probability of each diagnosis, its confidence in each diagnosis' probability, the reasoning behind each diagnosis..."

But after publishing a few papers in the area I left that field. I assumed, mistakenly it seems, that later AI implementations did the same. Too bad.

By the way, I realize, that AI systems can't assess non-respondent bias in the way it was done in Project Talent but perhaps there is some "machine readable" way to do it.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 9:05 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?

I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have understood) that it is rare and limited. I spent some time looking at the zero-shot language translation, as something I wanted to convene at SFI, with the AI goal of unpacking what was the “universal language” internal representation, and with the linguistics goal of using it in cognate classification and historical reconstruction. Never could get a call-back from any of the google people. But I didn’t think at the time that zero-shot had been unpacked.

Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.

Eric

Happy Veterans Day,

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
Friam poll:

How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html

If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is likely to vote.

At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any political impact at all.

How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.

So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out of sample.

Eric

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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

Thanks for that, Eric. It's clarifying.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 9:43 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Yes, it seems that the kind of reporting that would be natural for expert systems does not have a good reason to map to deep neural nets. To the extent that I refer to the right architectures as “expert systems”, I think of them as having a knowledge structure dictated by the architect. Reading out parts of it that are used short of the conclusions as an “explanation” integrates naturally into the architecture as it is.

For neural nets, the part that one engineers is a combinatorial parameter space that is both very large and very high-dimensional. The learning loop guide the dynamics into some region in that space, but in what sense “being in that region” is a representation of regularities in the inputs is for the architect to discover, but largely not to have designed.

Thus it seems that “reporting” entails the invention of a representation that is matched both to the particular state of the neural net, which it may not have a way to survey, and to the comprehension standards of people, to which it has no way to be coupled at all. That kind of invention seems like a meta-operation of the process on its own internal state, and a higher-order function.

I wonder if there is some crowd-sourcing protocol, by which the AI could propose representations of its internal state, and a distributed pool of users through feedback to it (kind of like Ken Stanley’s picbreeder) could represent criteria for human comprehension, by which the meta-operation would be implemented as just one more layer of reinforcement learning. Probably end up with 70 million Fox viewers, and 70 million more Elvis fans, standing in for human comprehension.

But I don’t work in this area, and will stop now.

Eric

On Nov 11, 2020, at 11:21 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

I used to teach a course called "AI and expert systems" for management students at Carnegie Mellon. I remember that Mycin, a diagnosis system for infectious diseases and one of the most famous expert systems, had some explanation capability. According to Wikipedia, "At the end, it [Mycin] provided a list of possible culprit bacteria ranked from high to low based on the probability of each diagnosis, its confidence in each diagnosis' probability, the reasoning behind each diagnosis..."

But after publishing a few papers in the area I left that field. I assumed, mistakenly it seems, that later AI implementations did the same. Too bad.

By the way, I realize, that AI systems can't assess non-respondent bias in the way it was done in Project Talent but perhaps there is some "machine readable" way to do it.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 9:05 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?

I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have understood) that it is rare and limited. I spent some time looking at the zero-shot language translation, as something I wanted to convene at SFI, with the AI goal of unpacking what was the “universal language” internal representation, and with the linguistics goal of using it in cognate classification and historical reconstruction. Never could get a call-back from any of the google people. But I didn’t think at the time that zero-shot had been unpacked.

Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.

Eric

Happy Veterans Day,

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
Friam poll:

How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html

If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is likely to vote.

At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any political impact at all.

How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.

So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out of sample.

Eric

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glen ep ropella

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

In reply to this post by Steve Smith

I think I agree with the idea that *some of* our conceptual dynamics are already coupled with physical dynamics. However, I also think the recent discussion of the pyrrhonian problematic and vernacular conceptions of "mechanism" highlight where that's *not* the case.

There seems (to me) an inexorable trend toward explainable AI. The credibility of any conception (e.g. a simulation) hinges on being able to explain what it's doing. And it's not (quite) enough to bury it all in esoteric math. My own attempts to suss out the distinction are couched in terms of "relational grounding" and a form of "logical depth". The paper we published hasn't had much traction, though. The overwhelming majority of citations are from our own group. You can view xAI (or xML) as "top down" and solidly mechanistic approaches as "bottom up". But a network is a better way to think about it, where black box predictors (like ODE and stat models) are "thin" and mechanistic models are "thick". Deep learning is just a tad thicker. Mechanistic and physics-based machine learning is yet thicker.

The question is "what is the stuff that makes it thick" ... thick with what? My answer is model composition. And it's the composing operators that [dis]allow the "interreality", as well as the relationship between [white|black|grey] boxes.

One of the triggering assertions I use at simulation conferences is to claim that validation and verification are the exact same thing, because verification is simply the validation of one's conceptual model against one's computational model. It's somewhat hyperbolic because the practical methods differ. But making the point can open some hard-nosed engineering types to a little philosophical speculation.

On 11/11/20 7:08 AM, Steve Smith wrote:

>
>
>>
>> So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out of sample.
>>
>> Eric
>
> And at what point does this kind of coupling yield a full up "inter-reality" in the Guintatas-Hubler sense?
>
> https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201
>
> My speculation is that we are already (way past) there, which is why the idea of "Russian Interference" in our election via social media feels so trite/mundane if simultaneously hugely threatening.

--
glen ep ropella 971-599-3737

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Steve Smith

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

In reply to this post by Frank Wimberly-2

Frank Wrote

> In the late 60s I worked on Project Talent in which data for 440,000
> high school students was collected and analyzed. This included , test
> scores, interests, socioeconomic status, etc. I've mentioned this
> before. The project included longitudinal following of the
> participants for decades. That following was done by telephone and
> mail. There were methods for assessing "non-respondent bias" by using
> aggressive follow-up such as searching for them and doing interviews.
> That data was used to estimate information about those who were not
> reached.
I'm always fascinated by the range of projects you have worked on,
especially straddling the traditional "two cultures" divide.   I can't
quite glean from the above description how all that turned out or what
you learned from the process... but it sounds like part of a larger
movement to tighten up the "soft sciences" that was significant?
> Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?

I believe this to be the 'holy grail' of (all?) machine learning
systems... I worked with UNM on some attempts to explicate the activity
and structure of evolving neural nets, traffic on the network fabric of
HPC clusters, network traffic at the LANL firewall, and the dynamics of
interconnected national infrastructure systems.    I do not feel that we
ever made more than minimal/superficial progress on this problem and it
remains to be deeply interesting.   I have a (mostly) unsubstantiated
belief that there will be discoverable structure in these AI/ML systems
which somehow reflects their function.   The epitome of the
structure/function duality?

>
> Happy Veterans Day,

I often wonder how many of this August Body served in the military?   I
was precisely 4 months too young to have to sign up for the draft and
turned 18 13 months after the Sec. of Defense declared an "all Volunteer
Army".   The *final* lottery for selective service was held 1 month
after I turned 18 but only applied to those 1 year older than me.   As a
matter of practicality, no actual conscription had occurred since I
turned 15 but that was only evident in retrospect, it felt that any of
those decisions could have been reversed on a whim (until the
requirement to sign up for selective service was dropped).

I was torn, having been raised in a very solid redneck-patriotic culture
where the opportunity to go off and be a hero was considered the apex of
a young man's opportunities.   I believed in the ideals of service and
duty to country. But I also heard the larger voice of discord which
(strongly) suggested that the current war was without any legitimacy and
that the way the members of the military were treated did not align with
the ideals presented as the *reason* for patriotic service. I was torn
between the polarized positions that as a young man, my only options
were to become a "yellow-bellied pinko-commie-fag draft dodger" or "a
baby killer".   Well before the announcement of an "all volunteer army"
I had decided that I almost assuredly could not give my soul (and
possibly my life) to my government.   The paradoxes implied by a
government "by, for, and of" the people conscripting it's young and
naive into a project (dominating Southeast Asia and beyond) and then
throwing (many of) them away (I was hearing the stories of poorly
conceived/executed campaigns/missions in Viet Nam).

My father served in WWII and my grandfather in WWI, each just young
enough to only be involved in "mop up" operations, not the actual
conflicts. They were (uber) proud of their involvement and had no
doubts that any and all military actions by our US Gov't were
intrinsically righteous, even though both of them had their own
suspicions of a variety of US Government bureaucracies they engaged over
time.

IN answer to my own question above (how many of us served?) is that I
suspect it is a small number... I suspect those among us who were of an
age to have been potentially conscripted, obtained our advanced
educations (which is not pervasive here, but significant) *while*
delaying conscription?   While I ultimately took significant umbrage
with virtually *all* of our military aspirations, I don't transfer too
much of that to the individuals who served, each for their own reasons
with their own circumstances and with their own performance and
resulting strengths (or damage) from their experiences.

- Steve

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thompnickson2

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

In reply to this post by David Eric Smith

Isn’t this a wonderful example of the incoherence of a notion of executive consciousness?

The system that explains is not the system that executes.

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Wednesday, November 11, 2020 10:06 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?

Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.

Eric

Happy Veterans Day,

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
Friam poll:

How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html

If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is likely to vote.

At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any political impact at all.

How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.

So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out of sample.

Eric

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jon zingale

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

In reply to this post by David Eric Smith

My flippant first approximation answer is: once there are fewer boomers.
While the national polls likely used no AI anywhere in their pipeline, I
suspect that any organization with *real money* on the line designed
predictive models making heavy use of AI and not bothering with telephones
for the data. Black boxes trade reliably and quickly on the stock market
floor, no serious go or chess player questions the supremacy of AlphaZero,
and for those concerned about "government work", significant advancements
are being made on understanding "the why" of these boxes (did anyone else
read the *Derivative of a Turing Machine* paper this way?).

While the government flailed about publicly unsure as to what the pandemic
would mean, while many of us waited for in-browser javascript models to
infer with, while arm-chair experts talked ad nauseam about the
impossibility of getting the parameter space under control, I suspect those
with billions on the line (like Google) did the calculations, and like an
iPhone that *witnesses* a rape or a murder, but reports nothing, these
models are kept private so as to not tempt accountability (much of the
content of the anti-trust hearings was of the form: should Facebook be the
rightful stewards of free speech?). Meanwhile, Google announces that her
workers will not return to their offices until the summer of 2021, and while
I may never know why this decision was made, I believe that my own
predictions ought to follow suit.

--
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glen ep ropella

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

In reply to this post by thompnickson2

That's an unjustified assertion. There's plenty of evidence that our CNS *simulates* the world and reuses components in both interacting with the world and simulating the world. Your dualism will not be tolerated. >8^D

There's a branch of xAI where the black boxes are "explained" dualistically with a white box analog that simulates the black box and something like the A/R ε-equivalence is used to build trust/credibility in the fidelity of that simulation. But they don't hot-swap components with each other, which is why (I think) such methods are ultimately less credible than types of xAI where the system that explains IS the system that executes.

On 11/11/20 9:00 AM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Isn’t this a wonderful example of the incoherence of a notion of executive consciousness?
>
> The system that explains is not the system that executes.

--
glen ep ropella 971-599-3737

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thompnickson2

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

Ah. Glen. As usual. Like a stiletto to the heart. "dualism", indeed!

I suspect that somewhere in those two sentences hides the answer I have been trying get about what a computer model of consciousness might look like. But that would take another thread.

To be honest, I don't have the band width right now, anyway. I barely have the band width to eat breakfast.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of glen ep ropella
Sent: Wednesday, November 11, 2020 11:26 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

That's an unjustified assertion. There's plenty of evidence that our CNS *simulates* the world and reuses components in both interacting with the world and simulating the world. Your dualism will not be tolerated. >8^D

There's a branch of xAI where the black boxes are "explained" dualistically with a white box analog that simulates the black box and something like the A/R ε-equivalence is used to build trust/credibility in the fidelity of that simulation. But they don't hot-swap components with each other, which is why (I think) such methods are ultimately less credible than types of xAI where the system that explains IS the system that executes.

On 11/11/20 9:00 AM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Isn’t this a wonderful example of the incoherence of a notion of executive consciousness?
>
> The system that explains is not the system that executes.

--
glen ep ropella 971-599-3737

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Russell Standish-2

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

In reply to this post by David Eric Smith

Given that most human explanations are post-hoc rationalisations, I
expect that machine learning systems trained to explain the outputs of
other systems might work. I believe some people in the ML community
are trying this, but it is not all that common yet. It is hard enough
to get the black-box predictive models to work as it is.

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020 at 11:05:30AM -0500, David Eric Smith wrote:

>
>
> On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?
>
>
> I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are active
> and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have understood)
> that it is rare and limited. I spent some time looking at the zero-shot
> language translation, as something I wanted to convene at SFI, with the AI goal
> of unpacking what was the “universal language” internal representation, and
> with the linguistics goal of using it in cognate classification and historical
> reconstruction. Never could get a call-back from any of the google people.
> But I didn’t think at the time that zero-shot had been unpacked.
>
> Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.
>
> Eric
>
>
>
> Happy Veterans Day,
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> Friam poll:
>
> How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html
>
> If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the
> users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is
> likely to vote.
>
> At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the
> phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people
> who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that
> the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too
> small to have any political impact at all.
>
> How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend
> on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs
> should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.
>
> So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private
> rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it
> produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is
> based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to
> extrapolate out of sample.
>
> Eric
>
>
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--

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders [hidden email]
http://www.hpcoders.com.au
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: How soon until AI takes over polling?

One thing that is done is to characterize how important variables are, even though there are often a multiplicity of functions that compose the variables. While a decision tree gives a clear explanation (one composition) for a prediction, it often requires many of them to capture all of the cases. This can arise, say, when there is a population of people that each have their own decision process, e.g. the Trump voters decide one way and the Biden voters decide another way.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Russell Standish
Sent: Wednesday, November 11, 2020 12:06 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

Given that most human explanations are post-hoc rationalisations, I expect that machine learning systems trained to explain the outputs of other systems might work. I believe some people in the ML community are trying this, but it is not all that common yet. It is hard enough to get the black-box predictive models to work as it is.

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020 at 11:05:30AM -0500, David Eric Smith wrote:

>
>
> On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?
>
>
> I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are
> active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have
> understood) that it is rare and limited. I spent some time looking at
> the zero-shot language translation, as something I wanted to convene
> at SFI, with the AI goal of unpacking what was the “universal
> language” internal representation, and with the linguistics goal of
> using it in cognate classification and historical reconstruction. Never could get a call-back from any of the google people.
> But I didn’t think at the time that zero-shot had been unpacked.
>
> Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.
>
> Eric
>
>
>
> Happy Veterans Day,
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> Friam poll:
>
> How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html
>
> If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the
> users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is
> likely to vote.
>
> At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the
> phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people
> who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that
> the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too
> small to have any political impact at all.
>
> How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend
> on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs
> should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.
>
> So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private
> rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it
> produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is
> based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to
> extrapolate out of sample.
>
> Eric
>
>
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> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
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>
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--

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders [hidden email]
http://www.hpcoders.com.au
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