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glen ep ropella

FPI > 210

A Mathematical Formula Predicted Today's Worldwide Protests Over a Year Ago
http://www.policymic.com/articles/82855/a-mathematical-formula-predicted-today-s-worldwide-protests-over-a-year-ago

"From Ukraine and Venezuela to Thailand and Syria, revolutions, protests
and unrest are sweeping the globe. Are we just living in crazy times
when everyone's angry at the same time, or is there more than meets the eye?

While each situation has its own complexities and particulars, complex
systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute
hypothesized that the continuing rise of high global food prices could
lead to uprisings around the globe. Over a year ago, Yaneer Bar-Yam of
the NECSI published a paper that charted the rise of the FAO food price
index — a UN measure that maps food costs over time — and saw that
whenever that figure rose above 210, riots broke out around the world.
The hypothesis held true for 2008's economic collapse and 2011's
Tunisian protests. After Bay-Yam built the model, he was able to predict
the Arab Spring just weeks before it happened, and now the numbers are
checking out for 2013, the year with the third highest food prices on
record."

--
glen ep ropella -- 971-255-2847

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Arlo Barnes

Re: FPI > 210

Right now I am reading Isaac Asimov's Foundation trilogy, which has at the core of it's plot the premise that a mathematician plotted a host of social variables out into the far future (a practice he calls psychohistory, predicting the fall of the Galactic Empire and the consequent 30 millennia of barbarism, and instead arranging matters so that a pair of organisations will slowly but steadily work over the course of the fall (~1000 years) such that the chaos would be minimized to a single additional millennium. Interesting to hear that, although it is on a much smaller scale both temporally and physically, and probably less reliable, the central idea has application in reality.
-Arlo James Barnes

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Owen Densmore

Re: FPI > 210

Administrator

In reply to this post by glen ep ropella

Whoa! Great catch. His text book was the first in depth that I found back in the day, 1997

http://www.amazon.com/Dynamics-Complex-Systems-Studies-Nonlinearity/dp/0201557487/

Amazing that he could find the needle in the statistical hay stack.

-- Owen

On Fri, Feb 21, 2014 at 2:06 PM, glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]> wrote:

A Mathematical Formula Predicted Today's Worldwide Protests Over a Year Ago
http://www.policymic.com/articles/82855/a-mathematical-formula-predicted-today-s-worldwide-protests-over-a-year-ago

"From Ukraine and Venezuela to Thailand and Syria, revolutions, protests and unrest are sweeping the globe. Are we just living in crazy times when everyone's angry at the same time, or is there more than meets the eye?

While each situation has its own complexities and particulars, complex systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute hypothesized that the continuing rise of high global food prices could lead to uprisings around the globe. Over a year ago, Yaneer Bar-Yam of the NECSI published a paper that charted the rise of the FAO food price index — a UN measure that maps food costs over time — and saw that whenever that figure rose above 210, riots broke out around the world. The hypothesis held true for 2008's economic collapse and 2011's Tunisian protests. After Bay-Yam built the model, he was able to predict the Arab Spring just weeks before it happened, and now the numbers are checking out for 2013, the year with the third highest food prices on record."

--
glen ep ropella -- <a href="tel:971-255-2847" value="+19712552847" target="_blank">971-255-2847

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Sarbajit Roy (testing)

Re: FPI > 210

In reply to this post by glen ep ropella

I have an alternate take on this.

Although I don't publicise this much, I'm presently the National
Convenor of the "India Against Corruption" movement (the apolitical
part of India's "Occupy" movement after it split in Nov 2012).

We see definite evidence of global military-industrial-financial
cartels and Govts (primarily the USA) which are fanning and actively
financing such revolutions / protests on a massive scale. These
protests are not indigenous but are externally created, and more than
food its probably oil/energy and water pricing which are equally
drivers / targets, coupled with a shortage of tillable land and farm
labour prepared to work.

Sarbajit Roy

On 2/22/14, glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]> wrote:

> A Mathematical Formula Predicted Today's Worldwide Protests Over a Year Ago
> http://www.policymic.com/articles/82855/a-mathematical-formula-predicted-today-s-worldwide-protests-over-a-year-ago
>
> "From Ukraine and Venezuela to Thailand and Syria, revolutions, protests
> and unrest are sweeping the globe. Are we just living in crazy times
> when everyone's angry at the same time, or is there more than meets the eye?
>
> While each situation has its own complexities and particulars, complex
> systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute
> hypothesized that the continuing rise of high global food prices could
> lead to uprisings around the globe. Over a year ago, Yaneer Bar-Yam of
> the NECSI published a paper that charted the rise of the FAO food price
> index -- a UN measure that maps food costs over time -- and saw that
> whenever that figure rose above 210, riots broke out around the world.
> The hypothesis held true for 2008's economic collapse and 2011's
> Tunisian protests. After Bay-Yam built the model, he was able to predict
> the Arab Spring just weeks before it happened, and now the numbers are
> checking out for 2013, the year with the third highest food prices on
> record."
>
> --
> glen ep ropella -- 971-255-2847

Parks, Raymond

Re: [EXTERNAL] Re: FPI > 210

Mike Hightower and others at Sandia have been predicting that water will be (perhaps already is) the critical resource at the root of social unrest and change in our era. Water is needed for life sustainment, it's needed for food production, and it's heavily intertwined with energy production.

http://www.sandia.gov/energy-water/

Ray Parks
Consilient Heuristician/IDART Program Manager
V: 505-844-4024 M: 505-238-9359 P: 505-951-6084
NIPR: [hidden email]
SIPR: [hidden email] (send NIPR reminder)
JWICS: [hidden email] (send NIPR reminder)

On Feb 22, 2014, at 6:46 AM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:

> I have an alternate take on this.
>
> Although I don't publicise this much, I'm presently the National
> Convenor of the "India Against Corruption" movement (the apolitical
> part of India's "Occupy" movement after it split in Nov 2012).
>
> We see definite evidence of global military-industrial-financial
> cartels and Govts (primarily the USA) which are fanning and actively
> financing such revolutions / protests on a massive scale. These
> protests are not indigenous but are externally created, and more than
> food its probably oil/energy and water pricing which are equally
> drivers / targets, coupled with a shortage of tillable land and farm
> labour prepared to work.
>
> Sarbajit Roy
>
> On 2/22/14, glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]> wrote:
>> A Mathematical Formula Predicted Today's Worldwide Protests Over a Year Ago
>> http://www.policymic.com/articles/82855/a-mathematical-formula-predicted-today-s-worldwide-protests-over-a-year-ago
>>
>> "From Ukraine and Venezuela to Thailand and Syria, revolutions, protests
>> and unrest are sweeping the globe. Are we just living in crazy times
>> when everyone's angry at the same time, or is there more than meets the eye?
>>
>> While each situation has its own complexities and particulars, complex
>> systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute
>> hypothesized that the continuing rise of high global food prices could
>> lead to uprisings around the globe. Over a year ago, Yaneer Bar-Yam of
>> the NECSI published a paper that charted the rise of the FAO food price
>> index -- a UN measure that maps food costs over time -- and saw that
>> whenever that figure rose above 210, riots broke out around the world.
>> The hypothesis held true for 2008's economic collapse and 2011's
>> Tunisian protests. After Bay-Yam built the model, he was able to predict
>> the Arab Spring just weeks before it happened, and now the numbers are
>> checking out for 2013, the year with the third highest food prices on
>> record."
>>
>> --
>> glen ep ropella -- 971-255-2847
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

smime.p7s (4K) Download Attachment

Roger Critchlow-2

Re: [EXTERNAL] Re: FPI > 210

The IEEE noticed that peak copper is coming this century, too. 10000 years we've been mining all the copper we wanted, no trouble, but sometime before 2100 the tide turns. If you think there's been a lot of copper theft lately, just wait till the prices double a few more times.

But the real crunch will no doubt be some out-of-left-field interaction between resource shortages.

-- rec --

On Mon, Feb 24, 2014 at 10:11 AM, Parks, Raymond <[hidden email]> wrote:

Mike Hightower and others at Sandia have been predicting that water will be (perhaps already is) the critical resource at the root of social unrest and change in our era. Water is needed for life sustainment, it's needed for food production, and it's heavily intertwined with energy production.

http://www.sandia.gov/energy-water/

Merle Lefkoff-2

Re: [EXTERNAL] Re: FPI > 210

Is this really news? I think we already know that humans are rapidly diminishing the resources of Mother Earth, the community on which our own existence and well-being depends. Enough with predictions about the coming catastrophe. Enough with the blah, blah. We're running out of time, guys. The Center for Emergent Diplomacy is taking DIRECT ACTION, as we all should. I'll be sending messages to the list soon about Bretton Woods 3.0, to be held in April, 2016, at the site of the original 1944 BW meeting. This global conference is being designed to incorporate CAS principles. Our $2m price tag is being funded by a group of young social entrepreneurs, investors in renewable energy projects.

"However differentiated in its modes of expression, there is only one Earth community--one economic order, one health system, one moral order, one world of the sacred." Thomas Berry, "The Ecozoic Era".

On Mon, Feb 24, 2014 at 10:30 AM, Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

The IEEE noticed that peak copper is coming this century, too. 10000 years we've been mining all the copper we wanted, no trouble, but sometime before 2100 the tide turns. If you think there's been a lot of copper theft lately, just wait till the prices double a few more times.

But the real crunch will no doubt be some out-of-left-field interaction between resource shortages.

-- rec --

On Mon, Feb 24, 2014 at 10:11 AM, Parks, Raymond <[hidden email]> wrote:

Mike Hightower and others at Sandia have been predicting that water will be (perhaps already is) the critical resource at the root of social unrest and change in our era. Water is needed for life sustainment, it's needed for food production, and it's heavily intertwined with energy production.

http://www.sandia.gov/energy-water/

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merlelefkoff

Parks, Raymond

Re: [EXTERNAL] Re: FPI > 210

Unfortunately, water is not a renewable resource - there is a limit on the amount of water on the Earth (barring minor variances). There is a lot of water on the Earth that is not potable (i.e. the oceans) and it is possible to convert that water to potable, but that conversion requires energy which needs to be produce using water. Water used in energy production need not be potable, and combined generator/desal plants on the Arabian Peninsula show how to do that - but those plants do not use renewable energy. Thus, some of the renewable energy projects need to both generate electricity and distill water.

The other issue is transport of water. Water is heavy and until its cost rises, transport of water outside of natural watercourses is too expensive to be feasible. If the cost rises as locales run out of easily available local water, then the riots ensue. Albuquerque is at the limit with the transfer program from one watershed to another - pipelines are the least expensive method to move water but they lack flexibility.

Ray Parks

Consilient Heuristician/IDART Program Manager

V: 505-844-4024 M: 505-238-9359 P: 505-951-6084

NIPR: [hidden email]

SIPR: [hidden email] (send NIPR reminder)

JWICS: [hidden email] (send NIPR reminder)

On Feb 24, 2014, at 11:26 AM, Merle Lefkoff wrote:

Is this really news? I think we already know that humans are rapidly diminishing the resources of Mother Earth, the community on which our own existence and well-being depends. Enough with predictions about the coming catastrophe. Enough with the blah, blah. We're running out of time, guys. The Center for Emergent Diplomacy is taking DIRECT ACTION, as we all should. I'll be sending messages to the list soon about Bretton Woods 3.0, to be held in April, 2016, at the site of the original 1944 BW meeting. This global conference is being designed to incorporate CAS principles. Our $2m price tag is being funded by a group of young social entrepreneurs, investors in renewable energy projects.

"However differentiated in its modes of expression, there is only one Earth community--one economic order, one health system, one moral order, one world of the sacred." Thomas Berry, "The Ecozoic Era".

On Mon, Feb 24, 2014 at 10:30 AM, Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

The IEEE noticed that peak copper is coming this century, too. 10000 years we've been mining all the copper we wanted, no trouble, but sometime before 2100 the tide turns. If you think there's been a lot of copper theft lately, just wait till the prices double a few more times.

But the real crunch will no doubt be some out-of-left-field interaction between resource shortages.

-- rec --

On Mon, Feb 24, 2014 at 10:11 AM, Parks, Raymond <[hidden email]> wrote:

Mike Hightower and others at Sandia have been predicting that water will be (perhaps already is) the critical resource at the root of social unrest and change in our era. Water is needed for life sustainment, it's needed for food production, and it's heavily intertwined with energy production.

http://www.sandia.gov/energy-water/

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merlelefkoff
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

smime.p7s (4K) Download Attachment

glen ropella

Re: FPI > 210

In reply to this post by Sarbajit Roy (testing)

I took a look at some of the sites:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=india+against+corruption

I see some organizational material, a community forum, some "about us"
stuff, etc. But I don't see a document archive explaining or giving
evidence for the corruption. Perhaps I missed it. Could you point out
some specific evidence?

On 02/22/2014 05:46 AM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:

--
⇒⇐ glen e. p. ropella
So in the end I had a cage around the sun

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