Friam

Election: Why So Close

Classic

List

Threaded

43 messages Options

123

Owen Densmore

Election: Why So Close

Administrator

Just as in the earlier elections with George Bush, I'm astonished at
how close the race is, not just who is winning.

When Bush won, it was really hard to believe: he's clearly incapable.
The Dems on the other hand, chose a poor candidate in the 04 race, so
that could be part of it. And he did steal the race, but he could
only do so because the separation was so small.

But given the obvious failure of the Bush administration, why in hell
is this race so close? Obama will likely win, but I simply cannot
understand why 45% or so really think McCain is better!

Its easy to shrug, and say most people are idiots. Maybe. But up
close and personal, you find this isn't true. So what is the "ghost
in the works"?

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Douglas Roberts-2

Re: Election: Why So Close

Owen,

Why in the world does this surprise you? I would like to suggest that the more intelligent of you on this list (we all know who we think we are) consider the concept of "average intelligence". Cogitate on the following:

The average IQ in the US is around 90.
The distribution has medium fat tails.
Bush was elected into office twice.

--Doug

-
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[hidden email]
[hidden email]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 10:53 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

Just as in the earlier elections with George Bush, I'm astonished at how close the race is, not just who is winning.

When Bush won, it was really hard to believe: he's clearly incapable. The Dems on the other hand, chose a poor candidate in the 04 race, so that could be part of it. And he did steal the race, but he could only do so because the separation was so small.

But given the obvious failure of the Bush administration, why in hell is this race so close? Obama will likely win, but I simply cannot understand why 45% or so really think McCain is better!

Its easy to shrug, and say most people are idiots. Maybe. But up close and personal, you find this isn't true. So what is the "ghost in the works"?

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

-

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Steve Smith

Re: Election: Why So Close

Doug/Owen -

This one fits my personal experience "pattern" of "Shocked but not Surprised".

In 00, I was not shocked or surprised that the pendulum swung back from the liberals to the conservatives.   It was time, or near time.

Perhaps if Bill had managed to keep his pecadillios more well-hidden, or if his detractors were not so vicious about them, or if Al had not claimed to invent the Internet, or if Ralph had graciously pulled out of the race after proving that a significant number of voters want some other choice than red or blue, we could have had another 4-8 years of a liberal administration. I won't even begin to speculate about whether there would have been a (successful) attack on 9/11 or whether such would have lead to war, etc... I'll save that for the alternate-history novel I'm (not) writing.

The bottom line is that it wasn't that much of a shock or surprise that the self-rightous right could stir up enough self-rightousness in the moral majority to get to the voting booths and vote in their favorite son.   I knew he was the village idiot when he first started running but I thought he would be a lot more harmless than he turned out to be.   I thought (to extend the parabolic reference) that as a village, we could raise that idiot.   What I failed to appreciate (my bad, in spades) was the depth of (e)vileness in his handlers, in the puppet-masters.

04 *DID* shock (but not so much surprise) me.   I thought that at least 10% of the Right would at least stay home from the polls in shame and at least 2% of the Left who failed to vote in 00 would wake up and smell the urine and vote and the 10% "third party types" would put aside some of their ideals long enough to dump the village idiot out of his cart.   And while I do believe there was some voting misconduct that might have swayed 00 and 04 enough to make the difference, it doesn't (as Owen notes) account for the difference between the vote and my impression of the likely vote.

I grew up among rednecks and in many was still am one myself, so I do have sympathy with many of the points of view that the Red States (the rural western ones anyway) hold.   I feel I have outgrown/transcended a lot of them, but still appreciate how people working with their hands, close to the land (now known as the "extractive industries") could resent the people sitting in a big city at Starbucks sipping triple-mocha, caramel latte's with an umbrella on top their blind comfort and relative wealth.

It took me most of the 80's and 90's to come to appreciate how *extractive* and *exploitative* virtually all natural resource extraction (mining, lumber, energy, fishing, even agriculture) and packaging (factories) and delivery (commercial transportation, service industries) has been.   Most folks living/working by those industries still can't see it, and the rest of us (knowledge workers, etc.) rarely acknowledge that we *want* someone to bring us all our goodies and we are happy to turn a blind eye to how all that was done, and then smugly resent those who did the work (from latin-american immigrants to the US working poor) to grow the food, mine the ore, cut the trees and those who processed it into what we see (factory/smelter/sawmill/food-processing) workers and those who bring it to us (truckers, etc.) and those who sell/serve it to us (minimum wage slaves with limited education/opportunities).

So it doesn't surprise me that there are a *lot* of under-educated people with a limited view of their own plight who could be snookered by one faction of the elite into believing their best interests were served by keeping *that* faction of the elite in power.   I've seen another faction of the elite hoodwink approximately the same people with promises of elevation and get elected on that themselves.

I happen to have a lot more sympathies (today) with the kinder-gentler/more-progressive approach of the Left than with the Right (they have been such dismal losers this past 8 years, amazing anyone can stick with them at all) but I don't think the "battle" is a simple one.

I for one, look forward to the impending "changing of the guard" and even (especially) want to see the incumbent party spanked silly in the election, but as soon as that is over, I look forward to an equally strong grass-roots movement to hold the incoming party (in the executive) to a truly rightous and progressive set of actions and policies. I know it is human nature to "take advantage" and that "power corrupts" so I am looking for populist/grassroots checks and balances to the power of our political and financial and corporate behemoths, not depending on them to keep eachother in check.

I'll be watching TV (or at least Jon Stewart on the Internet) on Tuesday, with breath all abated, hoping for a good spanking for the Republicans. If it comes out as strong as I hope, I'll drink a little Champagne and start lobbying everyone I know to put down the Champagne and pick up their tools and get to work. We've got a big hole to dig out of... several really.   I hope we don't expect our new president to magically lift us up out of it without some hard work and maybe more than a little personal sacrifice.

my $.02 (.00001/per word?)
- Steve

Owen,

Why in the world does this surprise you? I would like to suggest that the more intelligent of you on this list (we all know who we think we are) consider the concept of "average intelligence". Cogitate on the following:

The average IQ in the US is around 90.

The distribution has medium fat tails.

Bush was elected into office twice.

--Doug

-
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[hidden email]
[hidden email]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 10:53 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

Just as in the earlier elections with George Bush, I'm astonished at how close the race is, not just who is winning.

When Bush won, it was really hard to believe: he's clearly incapable. The Dems on the other hand, chose a poor candidate in the 04 race, so that could be part of it. And he did steal the race, but he could only do so because the separation was so small.

But given the obvious failure of the Bush administration, why in hell is this race so close? Obama will likely win, but I simply cannot understand why 45% or so really think McCain is better!

Its easy to shrug, and say most people are idiots. Maybe. But up close and personal, you find this isn't true. So what is the "ghost in the works"?

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

-
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Douglas Roberts-2

Re: Election: Why So Close

You must have the day off, Steve: *two* missives this morning, with 22 minutes remaining before lunch!

;-}

But I digress: what you were referring to below, indirectly, was educational level. I was talking about intelligence, or rather the abundant lack of it in our population. A small, but significant distinction.

--Doug

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 11:32 AM, Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Doug/Owen -

This one fits my personal experience "pattern" of "Shocked but not Surprised".

In 00, I was not shocked or surprised that the pendulum swung back from the liberals to the conservatives.   It was time, or near time.

Perhaps if Bill had managed to keep his pecadillios more well-hidden, or if his detractors were not so vicious about them, or if Al had not claimed to invent the Internet, or if Ralph had graciously pulled out of the race after proving that a significant number of voters want some other choice than red or blue, we could have had another 4-8 years of a liberal administration. I won't even begin to speculate about whether there would have been a (successful) attack on 9/11 or whether such would have lead to war, etc... I'll save that for the alternate-history novel I'm (not) writing.

The bottom line is that it wasn't that much of a shock or surprise that the self-rightous right could stir up enough self-rightousness in the moral majority to get to the voting booths and vote in their favorite son.   I knew he was the village idiot when he first started running but I thought he would be a lot more harmless than he turned out to be.   I thought (to extend the parabolic reference) that as a village, we could raise that idiot.   What I failed to appreciate (my bad, in spades) was the depth of (e)vileness in his handlers, in the puppet-masters.

04 *DID* shock (but not so much surprise) me.   I thought that at least 10% of the Right would at least stay home from the polls in shame and at least 2% of the Left who failed to vote in 00 would wake up and smell the urine and vote and the 10% "third party types" would put aside some of their ideals long enough to dump the village idiot out of his cart.   And while I do believe there was some voting misconduct that might have swayed 00 and 04 enough to make the difference, it doesn't (as Owen notes) account for the difference between the vote and my impression of the likely vote.

I grew up among rednecks and in many was still am one myself, so I do have sympathy with many of the points of view that the Red States (the rural western ones anyway) hold.   I feel I have outgrown/transcended a lot of them, but still appreciate how people working with their hands, close to the land (now known as the "extractive industries") could resent the people sitting in a big city at Starbucks sipping triple-mocha, caramel latte's with an umbrella on top their blind comfort and relative wealth.

It took me most of the 80's and 90's to come to appreciate how *extractive* and *exploitative* virtually all natural resource extraction (mining, lumber, energy, fishing, even agriculture) and packaging (factories) and delivery (commercial transportation, service industries) has been.   Most folks living/working by those industries still can't see it, and the rest of us (knowledge workers, etc.) rarely acknowledge that we *want* someone to bring us all our goodies and we are happy to turn a blind eye to how all that was done, and then smugly resent those who did the work (from latin-american immigrants to the US working poor) to grow the food, mine the ore, cut the trees and those who processed it into what we see (factory/smelter/sawmill/food-processing) workers and those who bring it to us (truckers, etc.) and those who sell/serve it to us (minimum wage slaves with limited education/opportunities).

So it doesn't surprise me that there are a *lot* of under-educated people with a limited view of their own plight who could be snookered by one faction of the elite into believing their best interests were served by keeping *that* faction of the elite in power.   I've seen another faction of the elite hoodwink approximately the same people with promises of elevation and get elected on that themselves.

I happen to have a lot more sympathies (today) with the kinder-gentler/more-progressive approach of the Left than with the Right (they have been such dismal losers this past 8 years, amazing anyone can stick with them at all) but I don't think the "battle" is a simple one.

I for one, look forward to the impending "changing of the guard" and even (especially) want to see the incumbent party spanked silly in the election, but as soon as that is over, I look forward to an equally strong grass-roots movement to hold the incoming party (in the executive) to a truly rightous and progressive set of actions and policies. I know it is human nature to "take advantage" and that "power corrupts" so I am looking for populist/grassroots checks and balances to the power of our political and financial and corporate behemoths, not depending on them to keep eachother in check.

I'll be watching TV (or at least Jon Stewart on the Internet) on Tuesday, with breath all abated, hoping for a good spanking for the Republicans. If it comes out as strong as I hope, I'll drink a little Champagne and start lobbying everyone I know to put down the Champagne and pick up their tools and get to work. We've got a big hole to dig out of... several really.   I hope we don't expect our new president to magically lift us up out of it without some hard work and maybe more than a little personal sacrifice.

my $.02 (.00001/per word?)
- Steve

Owen,

Why in the world does this surprise you? I would like to suggest that the more intelligent of you on this list (we all know who we think we are) consider the concept of "average intelligence". Cogitate on the following:

The average IQ in the US is around 90.

The distribution has medium fat tails.

Bush was elected into office twice.

--Doug

-
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[hidden email]
[hidden email]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 10:53 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

Just as in the earlier elections with George Bush, I'm astonished at how close the race is, not just who is winning.

When Bush won, it was really hard to believe: he's clearly incapable. The Dems on the other hand, chose a poor candidate in the 04 race, so that could be part of it. And he did steal the race, but he could only do so because the separation was so small.

But given the obvious failure of the Bush administration, why in hell is this race so close? Obama will likely win, but I simply cannot understand why 45% or so really think McCain is better!

Its easy to shrug, and say most people are idiots. Maybe. But up close and personal, you find this isn't true. So what is the "ghost in the works"?

-- Owen

Orlando Leibovitz

Re: Election: Why So Close

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

Owen,

In my opinion, ignorance, fear and racism are major factors. A recent poll indicates that over twenty percent of respondents in Texas believe Obama is a Muslim. What do you think the political race would look like if Obama were white? Also, many of the issues are complicated so people give up and
vote their reptilian emotions. There are still people that believe there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and that Saddam was involved in 9/11. For these folks Obama's middle name is not a plus.

O

Owen Densmore wrote:

Just as in the earlier elections with George Bush, I'm astonished at how close the race is, not just who is winning.

When Bush won, it was really hard to believe: he's clearly incapable. The Dems on the other hand, chose a poor candidate in the 04 race, so that could be part of it. And he did steal the race, but he could only do so because the separation was so small.

But given the obvious failure of the Bush administration, why in hell is this race so close? Obama will likely win, but I simply cannot understand why 45% or so really think McCain is better!

Its easy to shrug, and say most people are idiots. Maybe. But up close and personal, you find this isn't true. So what is the "ghost in the works"?

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Orlando Leibovitz

[hidden email]

www.orlandoleibovitz.com

Studio Telephone: 505-820-6183

John Sadd

Re: Election: Why So Close

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

Owen, I'm afraid part of (y)our problem in understanding this
phenomenon is that the people you get "up close and personal" with are
likely not remotely representative of the population as a whole. I can
confirm, for starters, that my wife Maggie and I have experienced the
most amazing culture shock in many places when we drive back and forth
between here and cozy New England (which appears to be safely and
uniformly in the Obama camp, including Live Free or Die New
Hampshire). Not that people are hostile, but they are just living in
an entirely different culture in most parts of the country between
here and there(Iowa being an interesting kind of an exception, on
which subject I had a very interesting FRIAM conversation with Carl a
couple of weeks back).

The fear factor is also huge. I'm afraid a much larger fraction of the
Muslim Arab terrorist socialist marxist Malcolm X's love-child crap is
sticking to the wall than you or I could ever imagine possible.

Data point: I have a Massachusetts friend who works for a nuclear
energy company part of which is Duke Engineering in NC. Well-educated
colleagues he works with from Virginia (the "more southern in nature"
parts ) and NC often express openly that if a Democrat is elected
president -- ANY democrat, this was true even four years ago -- Arab
terrorists will completely take over the US. People actually believe
this.

Another data point: I have a good friend in NH, sixty-something,
highly educated engineer, who I find it absolutely impossible to have
a political conversation with, not because we disagree, but because
his opening gambit in any conversation seems to come straight from
what I (and I suspect you) would consider total whacko right-wing AM
talk radio, whether the subject is mocking my brother in law for
buying a Prius, or the US occupation of Iraq, or how liberals
inevitably have ill-behaved children, etc.etc. There simply isn't even
a starting point for a conversation -- very discouraging. I'm afraid
it's a big ugly world out there.

Now I'm really sorry I missed FRIAM this morning, but I'll hope to see
you all next week.

john

On Oct 31, 2008, at 10:53 AM, Owen Densmore wrote:

> Just as in the earlier elections with George Bush, I'm astonished at
> how close the race is, not just who is winning.
>
> When Bush won, it was really hard to believe: he's clearly
> incapable. The Dems on the other hand, chose a poor candidate in
> the 04 race, so that could be part of it. And he did steal the
> race, but he could only do so because the separation was so small.
>
> But given the obvious failure of the Bush administration, why in
> hell is this race so close? Obama will likely win, but I simply
> cannot understand why 45% or so really think McCain is better!
>
> Its easy to shrug, and say most people are idiots. Maybe. But up
> close and personal, you find this isn't true. So what is the "ghost
> in the works"?
>
> -- Owen
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Orlando Leibovitz

Re: Election: Why So Close

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

On a lighter note watch this video. O

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh9BmNuqeiQ&eurl=http://www.groupnewsblog.net/2008/10/dont-speak-for-me-sarah-palin.html

Owen Densmore wrote:

Just as in the earlier elections with George Bush, I'm astonished at how close the race is, not just who is winning.

When Bush won, it was really hard to believe: he's clearly incapable. The Dems on the other hand, chose a poor candidate in the 04 race, so that could be part of it. And he did steal the race, but he could only do so because the separation was so small.

But given the obvious failure of the Bush administration, why in hell is this race so close? Obama will likely win, but I simply cannot understand why 45% or so really think McCain is better!

Its easy to shrug, and say most people are idiots. Maybe. But up close and personal, you find this isn't true. So what is the "ghost in the works"?

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Orlando Leibovitz

[hidden email]

www.orlandoleibovitz.com

Studio Telephone: 505-820-6183

Owen Densmore

Re: Election: Why So Close

Administrator

In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2

Doug/Orlando: Your response suggests that ignorance/stupid people are
at the heart of the problem.

But that does not really explain why they are so easily lead! For
example, why can't the Democrats have a Dept of Stupidity that figures
out how to inspire to them? Don't forget, they were at one time "The
Party Of The People". Can't they regain that?

The "Founding Fathers" weren't dummies but they lead the nation. Did
they simply figure out how to appeal to The Ignorant?

I realize elitism is likely an issue, but certainly we should be able
to speak to all?

-- Owen

On Oct 31, 2008, at 10:59 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

> Owen,
>
> Why in the world does this surprise you? I would like to suggest
> that the
> more intelligent of you on this list (we all know who we think we are)
> consider the concept of "average intelligence". Cogitate on the
> following:
>
>
> 1. The average IQ in the US is around 90.
> 2. The distribution has medium fat tails.
> 3. Bush was elected into office twice.
>
> --Doug

On Oct 31, 2008, at 11:39 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
> <snip>
> But I digress: what you were referring to below, indirectly, was
> educational level. I was talking about intelligence, or rather the
> abundant
> lack of it in our population. A small, but significant distinction.
>
> --Doug

On Oct 31, 2008, at 11:48 AM, Orlando Leibovitz wrote:

> Owen,
>
> In my opinion, ignorance, fear and racism are major factors. A
> recent poll indicates that over twenty percent of respondents in
> Texas believe Obama is a Muslim. What do you think the political
> race would look like if Obama were white? Also, many of the issues
> are complicated so people give up and
> vote their reptilian emotions. There are still people that believe
> there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and that Saddam was
> involved in 9/11. For these folks Obama's middle name is not a plus.
>
> O

Richard Harris-3

Re: Election: Why So Close

Saw an interesting article on this topic in the Guardian the other day.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/28/us-education-election-obama-bush-mccain

Don't really know what to add.

Rich

On Friday, October 31, 2008, at 05:57PM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

>Doug/Orlando: Your response suggests that ignorance/stupid people are
>at the heart of the problem.
>
>But that does not really explain why they are so easily lead! For
>example, why can't the Democrats have a Dept of Stupidity that figures
>out how to inspire to them? Don't forget, they were at one time "The
>Party Of The People". Can't they regain that?
>
>The "Founding Fathers" weren't dummies but they lead the nation. Did
>they simply figure out how to appeal to The Ignorant?
>
>I realize elitism is likely an issue, but certainly we should be able
>to speak to all?
>
> -- Owen
>
>
>On Oct 31, 2008, at 10:59 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
>> Owen,
>>
>> Why in the world does this surprise you? I would like to suggest
>> that the
>> more intelligent of you on this list (we all know who we think we are)
>> consider the concept of "average intelligence". Cogitate on the
>> following:
>>
>>
>> 1. The average IQ in the US is around 90.
>> 2. The distribution has medium fat tails.
>> 3. Bush was elected into office twice.
>>
>> --Doug
>
>On Oct 31, 2008, at 11:39 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
>> <snip>
>> But I digress: what you were referring to below, indirectly, was
>> educational level. I was talking about intelligence, or rather the
>> abundant
>> lack of it in our population. A small, but significant distinction.
>>
>> --Doug
>
>On Oct 31, 2008, at 11:48 AM, Orlando Leibovitz wrote:
>> Owen,
>>
>> In my opinion, ignorance, fear and racism are major factors. A
>> recent poll indicates that over twenty percent of respondents in
>> Texas believe Obama is a Muslim. What do you think the political
>> race would look like if Obama were white? Also, many of the issues
>> are complicated so people give up and
>> vote their reptilian emotions. There are still people that believe
>> there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and that Saddam was
>> involved in 9/11. For these folks Obama's middle name is not a plus.
>>
>> O
>
>============================================================
>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>

Douglas Roberts-2

Re: Election: Why So Close

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

Owen,

I'm guessing (purely guessing; I could be completely wrong) that you have not ever had a job that brought you squarely into daily contact with "average" people. I suggest this, because if you had, you most assuredly would not be asking (paraphrasing now)

"Why are people so willing to be completely fucking ignorant?"

The answer, IMNSHO is: the human population is, in the aggregate, on the average, with some exceptions, pretty happy being completely fucking ignorant.

Another way of asking your question would be: "Why are people the way they are?" The answer of course, is: "Because that's the way they are."

Of course now, I find myself wondering why you are wondering why people are the way they are...

I mean, isn't it obvious?

--Doug

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 11:57 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

Doug/Orlando: Your response suggests that ignorance/stupid people are at the heart of the problem.

But that does not really explain why they are so easily lead! For example, why can't the Democrats have a Dept of Stupidity that figures out how to inspire to them? Don't forget, they were at one time "The Party Of The People". Can't they regain that?

The "Founding Fathers" weren't dummies but they lead the nation. Did they simply figure out how to appeal to The Ignorant?

I realize elitism is likely an issue, but certainly we should be able to speak to all?

-- Owen

On Oct 31, 2008, at 10:59 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

Owen,

Why in the world does this surprise you? I would like to suggest that the
more intelligent of you on this list (we all know who we think we are)
consider the concept of "average intelligence". Cogitate on the following:

1. The average IQ in the US is around 90.
2. The distribution has medium fat tails.
3. Bush was elected into office twice.

--Doug

On Oct 31, 2008, at 11:39 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

<snip>

But I digress: what you were referring to below, indirectly, was
educational level. I was talking about intelligence, or rather the abundant
lack of it in our population. A small, but significant distinction.

--Doug

On Oct 31, 2008, at 11:48 AM, Orlando Leibovitz wrote:

Owen,

In my opinion, ignorance, fear and racism are major factors. A recent poll indicates that over twenty percent of respondents in Texas believe Obama is a Muslim. What do you think the political race would look like if Obama were white? Also, many of the issues are complicated so people give up and
vote their reptilian emotions. There are still people that believe there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and that Saddam was involved in 9/11. For these folks Obama's middle name is not a plus.

O

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Alfredo Covaleda-2

Re: Election: Why So Close

In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2

The entire world is wishing Obama for President. Have you seen this poll? More than 618000 voters worldwide and Obama has got the 87% of the preferences.

http://www.iftheworldcouldvote.com

There's no doubt. "War against Terrorism" and maybe the Neoliberal model have damaged the US's imagen and his leadership worldwide. I suppose that world's preferences for Obama can be seen as message for US in the sence that world is expecting for a change in many aspects of everyday living. Maybe The World is telling to his leader that he (or she) has been doing the things in a bad way". The Republicans are all the time hanging the sword of Damocles over world's head and frankly most of us are bored with this.

Personally I'm really surprise with the dirty Republican campaing against Obama. They look like third world politicians...

Hasta pronto y éxitos en las elecciones del 4 de noviembre

Alfredo

2008/10/31 Douglas Roberts <[hidden email]>

Owen,

Why in the world does this surprise you? I would like to suggest that the more intelligent of you on this list (we all know who we think we are) consider the concept of "average intelligence". Cogitate on the following:

The average IQ in the US is around 90.

The distribution has medium fat tails.

Bush was elected into office twice.
--Doug

-
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[hidden email]
[hidden email]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 10:53 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

Just as in the earlier elections with George Bush, I'm astonished at how close the race is, not just who is winning.

When Bush won, it was really hard to believe: he's clearly incapable. The Dems on the other hand, chose a poor candidate in the 04 race, so that could be part of it. And he did steal the race, but he could only do so because the separation was so small.

But given the obvious failure of the Bush administration, why in hell is this race so close? Obama will likely win, but I simply cannot understand why 45% or so really think McCain is better!

Its easy to shrug, and say most people are idiots. Maybe. But up close and personal, you find this isn't true. So what is the "ghost in the works"?

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

-

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Owen Densmore

Re: Election: Why So Close

Administrator

In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2

I'm very willing to accept your premise that people are willful,
stupid, ignorant, and all the rest.

The question is: why does that imply a particular voting pattern? Why
do idiots vote republican? Have republicans mastered some weird sort
of hypnotism that gathers in the ignorant?

I'd presume some sort of Gaussian curve for idiots, wouldn't you? Why
are they skewed one way or the other? Why aren't they stupid enough
to vote for Obama?

-- Owen

On Oct 31, 2008, at 12:10 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

> Owen,
>
> I'm guessing (purely guessing; I could be completely wrong) that you
> have
> not ever had a job that brought you squarely into daily contact with
> "average" people. I suggest this, because if you had, you most
> assuredly
> would not be asking (paraphrasing now)
>
> "Why are people so willing to be completely fucking ignorant?"
>
> The answer, IMNSHO is: the human population is, in the aggregate, on
> the
> average, with some exceptions, pretty happy being completely fucking
> ignorant.
>
> Another way of asking your question would be: "Why are people the
> way they
> are?" The answer of course, is: "Because that's the way they are."
>
> Of course now, I find myself wondering why you are wondering why
> people are
> the way they are...
>
> I mean, isn't it obvious?
>
> --Doug

Douglas Roberts-2

Re: Election: Why So Close

Ah, I see the need to fix an incorrect impression that I have left, i.e. that only idiots vote Republican. I suppose that is possible, but I don't believe it. I confess that many of the rabid Republicans that I know do a very good idiot impression, but in all fairness, so do many of my Democrat demagogue acquaintances. I strongly suspect that stupidity is fairly evenly distributed throughout the two-party system.

I will agree with a previous comment on this thread -- this commentary does a good job of covering the subject of stupidity in American politics:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/28/us-education-election-obama-bush-mccain

--Doug

On a much lighter note -- if anybody out there is looking for a fun way to spend Halloween this evening, might I recommend the Tin Star Saloon:

http://tinstarmusic.blogspot.com/

--Doug

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 12:31 PM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

I'm very willing to accept your premise that people are willful, stupid, ignorant, and all the rest.

The question is: why does that imply a particular voting pattern? Why do idiots vote republican? Have republicans mastered some weird sort of hypnotism that gathers in the ignorant?

I'd presume some sort of Gaussian curve for idiots, wouldn't you? Why are they skewed one way or the other? Why aren't they stupid enough to vote for Obama?

-- Owen

On Oct 31, 2008, at 12:10 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

Owen,

I'm guessing (purely guessing; I could be completely wrong) that you have
not ever had a job that brought you squarely into daily contact with
"average" people. I suggest this, because if you had, you most assuredly
would not be asking (paraphrasing now)

"Why are people so willing to be completely fucking ignorant?"

The answer, IMNSHO is: the human population is, in the aggregate, on the
average, with some exceptions, pretty happy being completely fucking
ignorant.

Another way of asking your question would be: "Why are people the way they
are?" The answer of course, is: "Because that's the way they are."

Of course now, I find myself wondering why you are wondering why people are
the way they are...

I mean, isn't it obvious?

--Doug

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

John Sadd

Re: Election: Why So Close

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

Let's face it, there are going to be plenty of stupid people voting
for Obama, and maybe even for stupid reasons.

And let us not forget: No matter how scary the closeness of the
election for those of us supporting Obama, we have to be realistic and
acknowledge that it is totally effing amazing that a black man with an
African father of Muslim heritage, and a white mother, born in Hawaii
and raised in Indonesia, who spent his early adulthood blowing snow on
the south side of Chicago, is probably going to be elected president.

john

On Oct 31, 2008, at 12:31 PM, Owen Densmore wrote:

> I'm very willing to accept your premise that people are willful,
> stupid, ignorant, and all the rest.
>
> The question is: why does that imply a particular voting pattern?
> Why do idiots vote republican? Have republicans mastered some weird
> sort of hypnotism that gathers in the ignorant?
>
> I'd presume some sort of Gaussian curve for idiots, wouldn't you?
> Why are they skewed one way or the other? Why aren't they stupid
> enough to vote for Obama?
>
> -- Owen
>
>
> On Oct 31, 2008, at 12:10 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
>> Owen,
>>
>> I'm guessing (purely guessing; I could be completely wrong) that
>> you have
>> not ever had a job that brought you squarely into daily contact with
>> "average" people. I suggest this, because if you had, you most
>> assuredly
>> would not be asking (paraphrasing now)
>>
>> "Why are people so willing to be completely fucking ignorant?"
>>
>> The answer, IMNSHO is: the human population is, in the aggregate,
>> on the
>> average, with some exceptions, pretty happy being completely fucking
>> ignorant.
>>
>> Another way of asking your question would be: "Why are people the
>> way they
>> are?" The answer of course, is: "Because that's the way they are."
>>
>> Of course now, I find myself wondering why you are wondering why
>> people are
>> the way they are...
>>
>> I mean, isn't it obvious?
>>
>> --Doug
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

glen ep ropella

Re: Election: Why So Close

I guess I have to jump in, here. With all you (non-specific ;-) smart
people slinging around the word "stupid" and calling all your friends,
relatives, neighbors, and countrymen stupid, it really tells us more
about the accusers than the accused, I think.

I think it would be much smarter of you to avoid prematurely concluding
that all these fellow humans are stupid and, rather, imagine yourselves
curious humans (perhaps even scientists?) and spend time actually trying
to figure out what's going on.

If Obama is elected, and (as expected) Democrats sweep the Senate and
retain the House, then I expect to see a virtually exact mirror of the
past 8 years. Granted, we won't see blanket accusations of
anti-americanism for petty things like not wearing a flag lapel pin.
But we'll see the exact same herd mentality that causes such. Instead,
we _may_ see accusations of anti-americanism if you maintain a healthy
skepticism for universal healthcare, heavy-handed financial regulation,
or whatever.

It would be more interesting (than calling people stupid) to consider
the dialectic and why we always seem to require polarization,
us-vs-them, two-party systems, in order to make our political decisions?
What is it about dichotomy (usually false) that helps us cognitively?
... especially to make the transition from thought to action?

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://tempusdictum.com

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Douglas Roberts-2

Re: Election: Why So Close

Hey, Glen.

I think it would be much smarter of you to avoid prematurely concluding
that all these fellow humans are stupid and, rather, imagine yourselves
curious humans (perhaps even scientists?) and spend time actually trying
to figure out what's going on.

Tried it once, didn't like it.

;-}

I lean more towards the "Forrest Gump" philosophy on this issue: "Stupid is as stupid does."

--Doug

--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[hidden email]
[hidden email]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Tom Carter

Re: Election: Why So Close

In reply to this post by John Sadd

All -

I'm not singling out John for this comment, but just using it as a
trigger . . .

On Oct 31, 2008, at 11:45 AM, John Sadd wrote:

> it is totally effing amazing that a black man

which raises the question, "Why isn't Obama white?"

If that question sounds silly to you, think a little about how
deeply you and I and everyone seem to have internalized the "Jim Crow
one drop rule" (i.e., one drop of "black" blood makes you black . . .).

Part of the trouble is that we're all "willfully ignorant" in our
own ways, it's just hard to notice our own . . .

But back to Owen's question . . . I'd say that the Republicans
have really gotten on board with the idea that it's OK to say and do
*anything* to get elected. In my experience, Democrats tend to have
at least a little trouble flat out lying . . .

I often play the "projection" game when I listen to political
rhetoric -- i.e., if they accuse their opponents of something, it's
probably because they know that's what they'd do (or are doing). A
few examples: McCain says "Obama will say anything to get
elected" (charge doesn't really apply to Obama, but certainly does to
McCain). McCain/Palin say "Obama is a socialist" (Palin is popular
in Alaska because she increased taxes on the rich (corporations) and
gave the money directly to ordinary people, no strings attached).
McCain says "Obama wants to `spread the wealth around'" -- meaning, he
wants you to believe, take money from some people and give it to
others (he, and rich Republicans, are all for it, as long as what you
mean is, take $700 billion from ordinary people and give it to
financial institutions . . .)

Oh, well . . .

tom

p.s. On the "Why isn't Obama white?" question:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/27/EDQI13NPIT.DTL&hw=why+isn%27t+obama+white&sn=003&sc=242

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Douglas Roberts-2

Re: Election: Why So Close

I can't resist:

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 1:30 PM, Tom Carter <[hidden email]> wrote:

[...] Democrats tend to have at least a little trouble flat out lying . . .

Well, that would depend on what the definition of the word "is" is, wouldn't it?

;-}

One of the more blatant Democratic lies ever uttered. Its echos are still reverberating.

--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[hidden email]
[hidden email]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

glen ep ropella

Re: Election: Why So Close

In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2

Thus spake Douglas Roberts circa 10/31/2008 12:18 PM:
> Tried it once, didn't like it.
>
> ;-}
>
> I lean more towards the "Forrest Gump" philosophy on this issue: "Stupid is
> as stupid does."

I sympathize with your premature conclusiveness, unfortunately. As I
age, I'm becoming more inclined to stick, inertially, to my own opinions
regardless of the available data. Thank the gods stodgy old people die
off and make room for new ideas.

For example, Oregon has a state measure that "Changes general election
nomination processes for major/minor party, independent candidates for
most partisan offices". It's billed as an "open primary" measure,
which, ideally, I would support (since I usually vote Libertarian).

But if you read the measure, you find all sorts of side effects that are
very _pro_ 2 party. So, the measure (I think) would end up doing
exactly the opposite of what it's proponents claim it would do. It
would tighten the grip of the 2 parties on the elections, primarily
because they're better funded. On the other hand, by not repealing
prior related laws, it provides a way to totally rewrite the law with
later that may, in fact, provide true open primaries.

Gee, what's an average moron like me supposed to do, here? Do I vote
for it or not? In the end, I resorted to my old tactic of not voting
for things I don't understand, especially one's that amend constitutions
and require the government to spend more money than they already do.

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://tempusdictum.com

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Tom Carter

Re: Election: Why So Close

In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2

Hmm . . .

I guess I'd have to say that sort of makes my point -- he couldn't even just say "No" -- he had to tangle himself in semantics to avoid the flat out lie . . . :-)

tom

On Oct 31, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

I can't resist:

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 1:30 PM, Tom Carter <[hidden email]> wrote:
[...] Democrats tend to have at least a little trouble flat out lying . . .

Well, that would depend on what the definition of the word "is" is, wouldn't it?

;-}

One of the more blatant Democratic lies ever uttered. Its echos are still reverberating.

--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[hidden email]
[hidden email]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

123