Election: Why So Close

[Steve Smith]

Douglas Roberts wrote:
    Like a dog returning his own vomit, I can't seem to distance myself from this thread.

 
Owen Densmore speculated:
    People: I'm thinking Freakonomics here.  Statistics.  Human behavior patterns.  You know, Science!
        . . .
    - Parties form attractors.

Maybe by staring into this image (like a (swirling) pool of our own dogs-breakfast?) of the forces in an idealized 2-body gravitational system (Earth-Moon) we can find portents and signs (or inspiration) by analogy for some psuedo-scientific hypotheses that we can then psuedo-test against our (anecdotal) psuedo-evidence.

On gross inspection I'd offer that L2 and L3 are where voters/supporters of the two parties orbit while independents and undecides hang out in orbits crossing L1.   What of L4 and L5?  Do Libertarians and Greens represent enough of a "different perspective" to be completely off the axes of Left/Right?  If our election rules were different, would more voters/supporters accrete in these basins until we had three or more systems?

To make the analogy work, I think there have to be both repulsive and attractive forces at work... not only can we vote *for* a party/candidate but we might instead be voting *against* the other(s).   I know that my scant voting record has really been voting *against* a candidate, disguised as voting *for* his opposition.

Just another thought to avoid real work and deadlines.

- Steve

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[Paul Paryski]

I have just now skimmed through the why so close discussion and would like to point out that the neo-conservative movement in the mid 1980s hired many think tanks, e.g. Rand,  to establish a strategy with appropriate tactics for running campaigns, gaining power and changing laws and regs to hold onto power.  Lee Atwater then Karl Rove were the main point persons for this strategy.  The Republican party was organized using corporate methodology (and money) and IT, while the Dems who relied on older grassroots, sloppy organizational techniques. 

Also as Orlando and some others have pointed out racism is still a motivation in the US along with greed and fear to which the Rs have very successfully and subtly appealed. 

And of course the media which is virtually controlled by a couple of dozen powerful people and organizations has only served to dumb down the population. 

De Toqueville in the 19th century understood all this.

Just my rather inane thoughts with hopes that McCain and Palin don't make it.

Paul


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[Phil Henshaw-2]

Well, if this thread isn't out of steam, there is a clear majority of humans
who prefer magical thinking... and imagine the general cause of natural
phenomenon is whether their "we" is in control or not.   You guys too, don't
even acknowledge that there is a physical world, continually speaking of it
as if it's a materialization of a theory by some magic not yet conceived of.

I think that's why our whole culture sees no problem with continually
multiplying the complexity of our problems... there's noting wrong with that
in theory!

Phil Henshaw  

> -----Original Message-----
> From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On
> Behalf Of Owen Densmore
> Sent: Friday, October 31, 2008 12:53 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: [FRIAM] Election: Why So Close
>
> Just as in the earlier elections with George Bush, I'm astonished at
> how close the race is, not just who is winning.
>
> When Bush won, it was really hard to believe: he's clearly incapable.
> The Dems on the other hand, chose a poor candidate in the 04 race, so
> that could be part of it.  And he did steal the race, but he could
> only do so because the separation was so small.
>
> But given the obvious failure of the Bush administration, why in hell
> is this race so close?  Obama will likely win, but I simply cannot
> understand why 45% or so really think McCain is better!
>
> Its easy to shrug, and say most people are idiots.  Maybe.  But up
> close and personal, you find this isn't true.  So what is the "ghost
> in the works"?
>
>      -- Owen
>
>
>
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> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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