Deafening silence re downgrade -
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Deafening silence re downgrade -
 
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Like many of us, I have been reading a wide range of opinions online
about this, and had been looking forward to the discussion here. So what's the sense here? My nickel: despite the gloom and doom, the prophecies of the final demise of the middle class, the unbelievable behaviour by the Tea Party folks- petulant, arrogant and childish behaviour- overall I am heartened by the necessity that we attempt to think like a global culture in order to resolve and upgrade how we operate. Similarly to the weather: we finally have to confront that this is all one planet, like it or not: there is nowhere else to go. Our engagement now with these two situations - global economics, global weather - I think will be seen as our watershed moment in a couple hundred years. I am a designated optimist, so there's that. However, the demand right now that we work together requires accountability from everyone to everyone, no one left out anymore. We are overdue for this. I wish it weren't happening while I was around, but I am around. Keeping the big picture in mind, not yielding to panic, and reminding people we've been through difficult times before. Stronger opinions re China and the US/West's addiction to their cheaply made merchandise and to consumerism (especially after Sarbajit's comments re cell phones), and the Tea Party will wait until I see if anyone picks this thread up. Yes, I read Tom Friedman. Victoria ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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My nickel: we're fucked. Incompetents are running the country, because the system encourages incompetent ass-kissing, yes-men to rise to the top: we get what e voted for. Enjoy.
--Doug
On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 6:51 PM, Victoria Hughes <[hidden email]> wrote: Like many of us, I have been reading a wide range of opinions online about this, and had been looking forward to the discussion here. -- Doug Roberts [hidden email] [hidden email] ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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In reply to this post by Victoria Hughes
My nickel: we're fucked. Incompetents are running the country, because the system encourages incompetent ass-kissing, yes-men to rise to the top: we get what e voted for. Enjoy.
--Doug
On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 6:51 PM, Victoria Hughes <[hidden email]> wrote: Like many of us, I have been reading a wide range of opinions online about this, and had been looking forward to the discussion here. -- Doug Roberts [hidden email] [hidden email] ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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Dow futures are already down 263. It's going to be ugly again tomorrow.
On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 7:58 PM, Douglas Roberts <[hidden email]> wrote: I'm staying at the Chico Hot Springs Hotel in Montana tonight, where the wireless access is iffy, at best. -- Doug Roberts [hidden email] [hidden email] ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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They dropped 600 and came back up.
On Aug 8, 2011, at 8:00 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote: Dow futures are already down 263. It's going to be ugly again tomorrow. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
Re: Deafening silence re downgrade -
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In the last week, the Dow dropped $1,323, today $634 http://goo.gl/hmBUB .. these are the worst numbers since Dec 2008.
Interestingly enough, the US Treasuries were "up" .. i.e. the interest rates dropped which indicates a very strong bond market. So "the market" disagrees with S&P.
Another interesting point: S&P has been one of the poorest rating agencies, giving very healthy scores to the banks that were heavily invested in the credit default swaps and other financial instruments that got us into the mess to start with. And there are many questioning the rating agencies in general, they just have a very, very poor records of predicting safety, their job. The markets themselves still much outperform them.
To tell the truth, I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist re S&P: I just gotta think they have "sold short" the US economy. Oddly enough, our financial situation is pretty good, with strong industrial capitalization and a reasonable national economy in terms of debt to GDP ratio. Our growth is poor due mainly to understandable caution, both in banks to lend and for industry to invest. Looking at out political system, I am not surprised.
I guarantee the biggest winners in this will be investors, especially "value investors" like Warren Buffet. When the markets plunge, a lot of companies are way under valued. I've seen this at play with three fund managers I know. One looks at management strength and healthy market for product. Another literally looks at the company assets and values them against liquidation. (Sounds ghoulish but is apparently an effective metric for valuing companies). The third is an expert in small-cap companies which always get hammered in these situations and if they survive, they slowly regain their value. Trust me on this, the smart professional investors will do very well indeed.
But more important than us, there is strong indication that europe, not the US is at the heart of the problem. The euro debt is likely to keep being problematic until there is a truly unified euro. The current situation is like each state of the US having their own currency, but pegged to a fictitious euro-zone wide economy. Each euro-zone state/country lacks the power to manage their own currency (i.e. float inflation, print money) but they have a fiction of being a single currency. Unfortunately, a unified euro zone is far too politically unified for comfort (can you imagine Italians, French, and Germans literally being unified?) and thus very unlikely. I'm far more concerned about that than the current US mess. I just don't think a monetary union without a political one will work, at least for europe. Way, way too diverse.
But, closer to us all, we have all had our net-worth reduced in the neighborhood of 15%, some claim 20%. We are far too integrated to say "but I don't have stocks" or similar naive views. Nope, we're all on this bus.
So in sum, yes Doug is right, a flock of insane T party jerks tipped the boat too much and the world caught on that we are just not trust worthy. And Obama is just too weak a president to confront them. He really should have used his constitutional right to guarantee our debt.
But that was just a tipping point, the systemic problems are real. And europe failing will be just as bad for us as for themselves. We really are all on the same bus and no one at the wheel. -- Owen
On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 8:45 PM, Victoria Hughes <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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On 8/8/2011 9:33 PM, Owen Densmore wrote:
> So in sum, yes Doug is right, a flock of insane T party jerks tipped > the boat too much and the world caught on that we are just not trust > worthy. [Rant deleted] http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer?currentPage=1 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/29/opinion/29rich.html Marcus ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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So glad I already bought new tires.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/ I seem to remember a bet of some kind with somebody on the list about the unemployment rate? On 8/8/11 10:14 PM, Marcus G. Daniels wrote: > On 8/8/2011 9:33 PM, Owen Densmore wrote: >> So in sum, yes Doug is right, a flock of insane T party jerks tipped >> the boat too much and the world caught on that we are just not trust >> worthy. > [Rant deleted] > > http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer?currentPage=1 > > http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/29/opinion/29rich.html > > Marcus > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
Corporate America. Sent from Android. On Aug 8, 2011 10:15 PM, "Marcus G. Daniels" <[hidden email]> wrote:
> On 8/8/2011 9:33 PM, Owen Densmore wrote: >> So in sum, yes Doug is right, a flock of insane T party jerks tipped >> the boat too much and the world caught on that we are just not trust >> worthy. > [Rant deleted] > > http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer?currentPage=1 > http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/29/opinion/29rich.html > > Marcus > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
Re: Deafening silence re downgrade -
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In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2
The market is positively schitzophrenic. Sent from Android. On Aug 9, 2011 2:33 PM, "Frank Wimberly" <[hidden email]> wrote:
> Despite the futures you noted, the Dow ended up 430 today. > > > > Frank > > > > From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf > Of Douglas Roberts > Sent: Monday, August 08, 2011 8:00 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Deafening silence re downgrade - > > > > Dow futures are already down 263. It's going to be ugly again tomorrow. > > On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 7:58 PM, Douglas Roberts <[hidden email]> > wrote: > > I'm staying at the Chico Hot Springs Hotel in Montana tonight, where the > wireless access is iffy, at best. > > > > My take: we're fucked globally, for a while. Think the 2008 recession and > I suspect we'll be in the ballpark. > > > > On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 7:52 PM, Victoria Hughes <[hidden email]> > wrote: > > Strong opinions stated twice. I did not vote for the Tea Party. > > What's your take on this as a global situation? > > > > > > > > Tory Hughes > > > > > My nickel: we're fucked. Incompetents are running the country, because > the system encourages incompetent ass-kissing, yes-men to rise to the top: > we get what e voted for. Enjoy. > > > > --Doug > > On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 6:51 PM, Victoria Hughes <[hidden email]> > wrote: > > Like many of us, I have been reading a wide range of opinions online about > this, and had been looking forward to the discussion here. > > So what's the sense here? > > My nickel: despite the gloom and doom, the prophecies of the final demise of > the middle class, the unbelievable behaviour by the Tea Party folks- > petulant, arrogant and childish behaviour- overall I am heartened by the > necessity that we attempt to think like a global culture in order to resolve > and upgrade how we operate. > Similarly to the weather: we finally have to confront that this is all one > planet, like it or not: there is nowhere else to go. > > Our engagement now with these two situations - global economics, global > weather - I think will be seen as our watershed moment in a couple hundred > years. I am a designated optimist, so there's that. However, the demand > right now that we work together requires accountability from everyone to > everyone, no one left out anymore. We are overdue for this. I wish it > weren't happening while I was around, but I am around. > Keeping the big picture in mind, not yielding to panic, and reminding people > we've been through difficult times before. > > Stronger opinions re China and the US/West's addiction to their cheaply made > merchandise and to consumerism (especially after Sarbajit's comments re cell > phones), and the Tea Party will wait until I see if anyone picks this thread > up. > Yes, I read Tom Friedman. > > Victoria > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > -- > Doug Roberts > [hidden email] > [hidden email] > > http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins > > > 505-455-7333 - Office > 505-670-8195 - Cell > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > -- > Doug Roberts > [hidden email] > [hidden email] > > http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins > > [hidden email] > > http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins > > > 505-455-7333 - Office > 505-670-8195 - Cell > > > ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
Re: Deafening silence re downgrade -
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On Tue, Aug 9, 2011 at 3:34 PM, Douglas Roberts <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hi volatility is considered a sign of onset of chaos. Keynes said it: markets can be at equilibrium at any level of productivity. Thus his spend to move demand upwards. Sounds OK to me.
He didn't have republicans. -- Owen ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2
Its very well known that (Equity) Markets are often schizophrenic
(oscillating between manic optimism and pessimism). This is a very good time to make money by taking advantage of volatility (and assuming unsystematic risk). PS: Is there negative schizophrenia too ? On Wed, Aug 10, 2011 at 3:04 AM, Douglas Roberts <[hidden email]> wrote: > The market is positively schitzophrenic. > > Sent from Android. > > On Aug 9, 2011 2:33 PM, "Frank Wimberly" <[hidden email]> wrote: >> Despite the futures you noted, the Dow ended up 430 today. >> >> >> >> Frank >> >> >> >> From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On >> Behalf >> Of Douglas Roberts >> Sent: Monday, August 08, 2011 8:00 PM >> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Deafening silence re downgrade - >> >> >> >> Dow futures are already down 263. It's going to be ugly again tomorrow. >> >> On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 7:58 PM, Douglas Roberts <[hidden email]> >> wrote: >> >> I'm staying at the Chico Hot Springs Hotel in Montana tonight, where the >> wireless access is iffy, at best. >> >> >> >> My take: we're fucked globally, for a while. Think the 2008 recession and >> I suspect we'll be in the ballpark. >> >> >> >> On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 7:52 PM, Victoria Hughes <[hidden email]> >> wrote: >> >> Strong opinions stated twice. I did not vote for the Tea Party. >> >> What's your take on this as a global situation? >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> Tory Hughes >> >> [hidden email] >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On Aug 8, 2011, at 7:10 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote: >> >> >> >> >> >> My nickel: we're fucked. Incompetents are running the country, because >> the system encourages incompetent ass-kissing, yes-men to rise to the top: >> we get what e voted for. Enjoy. >> >> >> >> --Doug >> >> On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 6:51 PM, Victoria Hughes <[hidden email]> >> wrote: >> >> Like many of us, I have been reading a wide range of opinions online about >> this, and had been looking forward to the discussion here. >> >> So what's the sense here? >> >> My nickel: despite the gloom and doom, the prophecies of the final demise >> of >> the middle class, the unbelievable behaviour by the Tea Party folks- >> petulant, arrogant and childish behaviour- overall I am heartened by the >> necessity that we attempt to think like a global culture in order to >> resolve >> and upgrade how we operate. >> Similarly to the weather: we finally have to confront that this is all one >> planet, like it or not: there is nowhere else to go. >> >> Our engagement now with these two situations - global economics, global >> weather - I think will be seen as our watershed moment in a couple hundred >> years. I am a designated optimist, so there's that. However, the demand >> right now that we work together requires accountability from everyone to >> everyone, no one left out anymore. We are overdue for this. I wish it >> weren't happening while I was around, but I am around. >> Keeping the big picture in mind, not yielding to panic, and reminding >> people >> we've been through difficult times before. >> >> Stronger opinions re China and the US/West's addiction to their cheaply >> made >> merchandise and to consumerism (especially after Sarbajit's comments re >> cell >> phones), and the Tea Party will wait until I see if anyone picks this >> thread >> up. >> Yes, I read Tom Friedman. >> >> Victoria >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >> >> >> >> >> -- >> Doug Roberts >> [hidden email] >> [hidden email] >> >> http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins >> >> >> 505-455-7333 - Office >> 505-670-8195 - Cell >> >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >> >> >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >> >> >> >> >> -- >> Doug Roberts >> [hidden email] >> [hidden email] >> >> http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins >> >> >> 505-455-7333 - Office >> 505-670-8195 - Cell >> >> >> >> >> >> >> -- >> Doug Roberts >> [hidden email] >> [hidden email] >> >> http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins >> >> >> 505-455-7333 - Office >> 505-670-8195 - Cell >> >> >> > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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For those interested in the volatility of equity markets, you may want
to look at the VIX and the IVX (CBOE volatility indicators). These are strongly correlated with the cost of options and the spread between bids and calls. **************************** Greg Sonnenfeld On Thu, Aug 11, 2011 at 8:04 AM, Sarbajit Roy <[hidden email]> wrote: > Its very well known that (Equity) Markets are often schizophrenic > (oscillating between manic optimism and pessimism). This is a very > good time to make money by taking advantage of volatility (and > assuming unsystematic risk). > > PS: Is there negative schizophrenia too ? > > On Wed, Aug 10, 2011 at 3:04 AM, Douglas Roberts <[hidden email]> wrote: >> The market is positively schitzophrenic. >> >> Sent from Android. >> >> On Aug 9, 2011 2:33 PM, "Frank Wimberly" <[hidden email]> wrote: >>> Despite the futures you noted, the Dow ended up 430 today. >>> >>> >>> >>> Frank >>> >>> >>> >>> From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On >>> Behalf >>> Of Douglas Roberts >>> Sent: Monday, August 08, 2011 8:00 PM >>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group >>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Deafening silence re downgrade - >>> >>> >>> >>> Dow futures are already down 263. It's going to be ugly again tomorrow. >>> >>> On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 7:58 PM, Douglas Roberts <[hidden email]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> I'm staying at the Chico Hot Springs Hotel in Montana tonight, where the >>> wireless access is iffy, at best. >>> >>> >>> >>> My take: we're fucked globally, for a while. Think the 2008 recession and >>> I suspect we'll be in the ballpark. >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 7:52 PM, Victoria Hughes <[hidden email]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> Strong opinions stated twice. I did not vote for the Tea Party. >>> >>> What's your take on this as a global situation? >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Tory Hughes >>> >>> [hidden email] >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Aug 8, 2011, at 7:10 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote: >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> My nickel: we're fucked. Incompetents are running the country, because >>> the system encourages incompetent ass-kissing, yes-men to rise to the top: >>> we get what e voted for. Enjoy. >>> >>> >>> >>> --Doug >>> >>> On Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 6:51 PM, Victoria Hughes <[hidden email]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> Like many of us, I have been reading a wide range of opinions online about >>> this, and had been looking forward to the discussion here. >>> >>> So what's the sense here? >>> >>> My nickel: despite the gloom and doom, the prophecies of the final demise >>> of >>> the middle class, the unbelievable behaviour by the Tea Party folks- >>> petulant, arrogant and childish behaviour- overall I am heartened by the >>> necessity that we attempt to think like a global culture in order to >>> resolve >>> and upgrade how we operate. >>> Similarly to the weather: we finally have to confront that this is all one >>> planet, like it or not: there is nowhere else to go. >>> >>> Our engagement now with these two situations - global economics, global >>> weather - I think will be seen as our watershed moment in a couple hundred >>> years. I am a designated optimist, so there's that. However, the demand >>> right now that we work together requires accountability from everyone to >>> everyone, no one left out anymore. We are overdue for this. I wish it >>> weren't happening while I was around, but I am around. >>> Keeping the big picture in mind, not yielding to panic, and reminding >>> people >>> we've been through difficult times before. >>> >>> Stronger opinions re China and the US/West's addiction to their cheaply >>> made >>> merchandise and to consumerism (especially after Sarbajit's comments re >>> cell >>> phones), and the Tea Party will wait until I see if anyone picks this >>> thread >>> up. >>> Yes, I read Tom Friedman. >>> >>> Victoria >>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Doug Roberts >>> [hidden email] >>> [hidden email] >>> >>> http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins >>> >>> >>> 505-455-7333 - Office >>> 505-670-8195 - Cell >>> >>> >>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Doug Roberts >>> [hidden email] >>> [hidden email] >>> >>> http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins >>> >>> >>> 505-455-7333 - Office >>> 505-670-8195 - Cell >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Doug Roberts >>> [hidden email] >>> [hidden email] >>> >>> http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins >>> >>> >>> 505-455-7333 - Office >>> 505-670-8195 - Cell >>> >>> >>> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >> > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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