www.rgemonitor.com Nouriel Roubini blog, best thoughtful info re crisis -- a comment re Constitutional law re private housing: Kate Murray: Rich Murray 2008.10.10

[Rich Murray]

www.rgemonitor.com Nouriel Roubini blog, best thoughtful info re crisis -- a comment re Constitutional law re private housing: Kate Murray: Rich Murray 2008.10.10

Rich Murray [hidden email]  505-501-2298

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253973/the_world_is_at_severe_risk_of_a_global_systemic_financial_meltdown_and_a_severe_global_depression


... a comment:

 Mark Shuttleworth is a Sudafrican venture capitalist and founder of the
Ubuntu Linux distribution. He is an extremely sharp guy, but certainly not a
macroeconomics of finance one. His latest blog is very good:

    It's a solvency problem, not a liquidity problem

    The term "credit crunch" is very misleading for the current crisis. It
suggests that the problem is merely one of confidence, that calm will return
if liquidity is introduced to the system.

    My view, though, is that the real issue is one of solvency. This is the
systemic bankruptcy of 2008.
    ...
    I'm nervous.
    The big question I'm asking is which sidelines don't have landmines? My
team and I are fortunate to have stepped out of many markets before the
current flood of fear. We stepped right into a few problems, but in large
part dodged the cannonballs. So far so good. But what does it mean to have
cash in the bank, when banks themselves are failing? What does it mean to
hold dollars, when the dollar is being debased in a way that would feel
familiar to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe? These are very dangerous times,
and nobody should think otherwise.

http://www.markshuttleworth.com/archives/220

Reply to this comment By Alessandro - http://castellidicarte.blogspot.com/
on 2008-10-09 18:55:09
000


So, if there is not 150bps coordinated rate cut before market opening
tomorrow, markets crash 20%?
Did NR write this after today's close?

Reply to this comment By Anonymous on 2008-10-09 18:57:10
000


Dear Professor

Your forecasts have been first rate, but are your current solutions are
radical or adequate?


"another rapid round of policy rate cuts of the order of at least 150 basis
points on average globally"

Surely the time is past when rate cuts had any effect


"- a temporary blanket guarantee of all deposits while a triage between
insolvent financial institutions that need to be shut down and distressed
but solvent institutions that need to be partially nationalized with
injections of public capital is made;"

A: Big creditors will force institutions into bankruptcy to get government
refunds

B: it will get too expensive

C: how easy is it to distinguish the insolvent from the illiquid at the
moment?


"- a rapid reduction of the debt burden of insolvent households"

How exactly?


"- massive and unlimited provision of liquidity to solvent financial
institutions;"

It aint working. Solvent institutions turn out not to be. Money pumped in
does not come out again. There are not unlimited funds


"- public provision of credit to the solvent parts of the corporate sector
to avoid a short-term debt refinancing crisis for solvent but illiquid
corporations and small businesses;"

YES!! - basically government taking over the core financial functions


"- a massive direct government fiscal stimulus packages that includes public
works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, tax rebates to lower
income households and provision of grants to strapped and crunched state and
local government;"

YES again! Much better use of capital


"- a rapid resolution of the banking problems via triage, public
recapitalization of financial institutions and reduction of the debt burden
of distressed households and borrowers;"

you said this above already


"- an agreement between lender and creditor countries running current
account surpluses and borrowing and debtor countries running current account
deficits to maintain an orderly financing of deficits and a recycling of the
surpluses of creditors to avoid a disorderly adjustment of such imbalances."

This is the biggie. Can nations co-operate? Its not looking good so far (eg
Iceland). We need a US President with real vision and leadership qualities.
Not guys who lamely voted for the bailout and dont seem to want to discuss
the real issues.

Reply to this comment By PhilW on 2008-10-09 19:00:05
000


Dr. Roubini says:

"This disconnect between more and more aggressive policy actions and easings
and greater and greater strains in financial market is scary....

When in markets that are clearly way oversold even the most radical policy
actions don't provide rallies or relief to market participants you know that
you are one step away from a market crack and a systemic financial sector
and corporate sector collapse. A vicious circle of deleveraging, asset
collapses, margin calls, cascading falls in asset prices well below falling
fundamentals and panic is now underway."
___

This sums it all up. All of this government scrambling to shore things up at
this late date may well be to no avail.

SWK

Reply to this comment By kilgores on 2008-10-09 19:07:17
000


Its only 7 minutes into Tokyo trading but at this point banks are Ask only.

Reply to this comment By Guest on 2008-10-09 19:07:33
000


- a rapid reduction of the debt burden of insolvent households preceded by a
temporary freeze on all foreclosures;

HA HA! SO YOU'VE FINALLY--FINALLY, AFTER TWO SOLID YEARS--ADOPTED MY POLICY
OF STOPPING HOUSING EVICTIONS.

BUT NO NO! NOT QUITE!! WHAT ABOUT THE RENTERS? WHAT ABOUT THOSE IN PUBLIC
HOUSING?

SORRY NOURIEL, YOU'RE NOT THERE YET! I WANT YOU TO COME OUT IN FAVOR OF A

1. INDIVIDUALLY ENFORCEABLE
2. PERMANENT
3. COMPLETE
4. ABSOLUTE

BAN ON HOUSING EVICTIONS. HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE YOU TO REALIZE THAT ONLY A
BAN ON HOUSING EVICTIONS WILL INCREASE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY?
NOTHING--NOTHING--OTHER THAN THIS MEASURE WILL INCREASE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.

BY THE WAY, FOLKS, THIS BAN ON HOUSING EVICTIONS IS THE FIRST ACTION IN
ENFORCING THE HOUSING PROVISION OF THE NEW BILL OF RIGHTS. WHAT NOURIEL
DOESN'T TELL YOU IS THAT WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW IS THAT WE ARE IN TRANSITION,
FROM THE 'SCRUTINY' REGIME OF WEST COAST HOTEL V. PARRISH (1937), TO THE
'MAINTENANCE' REGIME I DISCUSS IN MY BOOK: JOHN RYSKAMP, THE EMINENT DOMAIN
REVOLT (NEW YORK: ALGORA, 2006).

THIS CHANGE, BY THE WAY, HAS BEEN COMING FOR SOME TIME. ABOUT EVERY SEVENTY
YEARS, THE UNITED STATES CHANGES CONSTITUTIONAL REGIMES. FOR HISTORICAL
BACKGROUND, READ THE EXCELLENT, ONLINE ESSAY 'HISTORICIZING JUDICIAL
SCRUTINY' BY PROF. G. EDWARD WHITE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA LAW SCHOOL.

FOR THOSE TRAINED IN THE LAW, LET ME SAY THAT, IN SCRUTINY REGIME TERMS,
WHAT IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN IS THAT HOUSING IS GOING FROM MINIMUM SCRUTINY
(LINDSEY V. NORMET) TO STRICT SCRUTINY. YOU WILL REALIZE BY THAT STATEMENT
THAT I AM TALKING ABOUT--AND FOR THAT MATTER, CARRYING OUT--A CONSTITUTIONAL
REVOLUTION. IF YOU ARE NOT A LAWYER, I STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU GET A LAWYER TO
EXPLAIN THIS STATEMENT TO YOU. YOU WILL NEVER--NEVER--UNDERSTAND WHAT IS
GOING ON IF YOU DON'T DO THAT.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHY NOURIEL'S OTHER PROPOSAL INVOLVE, NOT AN ANDVANCE
IN INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS, BUT RATHER, 'ROUBINI'S CONTRADICTION.'

NOURIEL HIMSELF IS FAMOUS AS THE ONE WHO SAID THAT NOW NOTHING CAN BE
VALUED. AND YET HE PROPOSES ALL SORTS OF INTERVENTION BASED ON THE IDEA THAT
SOMETHING CAN BE VALUED. OF COURSE, MARK TO MARKETING ITSELF DRIVES AWAY
INVESTORS--THAT'S TO ONE SIDE. BUT ON WHAT IS THIS BANK RECAPITALIZATION
BASED? WHAT 'SOLVENT' INSTITUTIONS IS HE TALKING ABOUT? THERE ARE NONE,
BECAUSE NOTHING CAN BE VALUED.

WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS THAT HE HAS MADE THE MISTAKE OF STEPPING OUT OF
ECONOMICS AND INTO POLITICS. BIG MISTAKE ON HIS PART, BECAUSE HE KNOWS
NOTHING ABOUT THE LAW, NOTHING ABOUT THE STRUCTURE THAT HAS LEFT SOME GROUPS
FAVORED AND OTHER GROUPS DISFAVORED. WHY FAVOR HIS FINANCIAL INSTITUTION
GROUPS?

I FIND IT EXTREMELY SUSPICIOUS THAT IT TOOK HIM SO LONG TO ADVOCATE A FREEZE
ON 'ALL' HOME FORECLOSURES--IT LOOKS TACKED ON, AS IF IT'S AN AFTERTHOUGHT.
HE GIVES PRIORITY TO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, BECAUSE THAT IS HIS BACKGROUND.
THAT SPEAKS ILL OF HIS UNDERSTANDING OF THE ROLE OF THE ECONOMY IN THE
LARGER SOCIETY.


HE'S GOT IT BACKWARDS. FIRST YOU ATTEND TO INDIVIDUALLY ENFORCEABLE RIGHTS.
THEN, AND ONLY THEN, OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SOCIETY HARMONIZE THEMSELVES WITH
THOSE RIGHTS. DO IT ANY OTHER WAY, AND ITS SIMPLY AN ERROR CRYING OUT FOR
CORRECTION.

SO GET SMART: ADVOCATE A BAN ON HOUSING EVICTIONS. IT'S GOING TO OCCUR
ANYWAY. DON'T INCREASE UNNECESSARY SUFFERING BY RESISTING IT.

When in markets that are clearly way oversold even the most radical policy
actions don't provide rallies or relief to market participants you know that
you are one step away from a market crack and a systemic financial sector
and corporate sector collapse. A vicious circle of deleveraging, asset
collapses, margin calls, cascading falls in asset prices well below falling
fundamentals and panic is now underway.


Hide replies Reply to this comment By JRYSK on 2008-10-09 19:08:31
000


... huge number of comments....


...initial post by Prof. Nouriel Roubini:

The world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a
severe global depression
Nouriel Roubini | Oct 9, 2008
Featured Blog Comments

" G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Plan of Action October 10,
2008, Washington DC The G7 agrees today that the current situation calls...
more "
By Guest 10-10-2008

" A couple of weeks ago I warned that the market was showing signs that
resembled the pre-1987 crash. The issue wasn't just technicals. There was
an... more "
By Guest 10-09-2008

" It may be prudent to close the banks and the markets for an extended
period starting now. This is not an elegant choice, but who are we kidding
now.... more "
By 2cents 10-09-2008

" Well from what I know from the Argentina/Uruguay 2002 crisis: 1) banks are
closed for a few days to 2 weeks 2) credit cards don't work 3) cash is
king... more "
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" Dylan Radigan and Maria Bartiromo bravely kept their positive rap going,
alternating from looking at the Dow plummeting and engaging in useless
patter... more "
By Wild Bill 10-09-2008

" Beautifully put Professor. I am from India and I have maintained for a
long time that India is following the US with a 6 months lag. This is the...
more "
By Amar Harolikar 10-09-2008

See all blog comments

Nouriel Roubini blog:

The US and advanced economies' financial system is now headed towards a
near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in
free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are
skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now
the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies;
a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker
dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money
market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and
liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are
thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of
the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to
widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial
firms.

On the real economic side all the advanced economies representing 55% of
global GDP (US, Eurozone, UK, other smaller European countries, Canada,
Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Japan) entered a recession even before the
massive financial shocks that started in the late summer made the liquidity
and credit crunch even more virulent and will thus cause an even more severe
recession than the one that started in the spring. So we have a severe
recession, a severe financial crisis and a severe banking crisis in advanced
economies.

There was no decoupling among advanced economies and there is no decoupling
but rather recoupling of the emerging market economies with the severe
crisis of the advanced economies. By the third quarter of this year global
economic growth will be in negative territory signaling a global recession.
The recoupling of emerging markets was initially limited to stock markets
that fell even more than those of advanced economies as foreign investors
pulled out of these markets; but then it spread to credit markets and money
markets and currency markets bringing to the surface the vulnerabilities of
many financial systems and corporate sectors that had experienced credit
booms and that had borrowed short and in foreign currencies. Countries with
large current account deficit and/or large fiscal deficits and with large
short term foreign currency liabilities and borrowings have been the most
fragile. But even the better performing ones - like the BRICs club of
Brazil, Russia, India and China - are now at risk of a hard landing. Trade
and financial and currency and confidence channels are now leading to a
massive slowdown of growth in emerging markets with many of them now at risk
not only of a recession but also of a severe financial crisis.

The crisis was caused by the largest leveraged asset bubble and credit
bubble in the history of humanity were excessive leveraging and bubbles were
not limited to housing in the US but also to housing in many other countries
and excessive borrowing by financial institutions and some segments of the
corporate sector and of the public sector in many and different economies:
an housing bubble, a mortgage bubble, an equity bubble, a bond bubble, a
credit bubble, a commodity bubble, a private equity bubble, a hedge funds
bubble are all now bursting at once in the biggest real sector and financial
sector deleveraging since the Great Depression.

At this point the recession train has left the station; the financial and
banking crisis train has left the station. The delusion that the US and
advanced economies contraction would be short and shallow - a V-shaped six
month recession - has been replaced by the certainty that this will be a
long and protracted U-shaped recession that may last at least two years in
the US and close to two years in most of the rest of the world. And given
the rising risk of a global systemic financial meltdown the probability that
the outcome could become a decade long L-shaped recession - like the one
experienced by Japan after the bursting of its real estate and equity
bubble - cannot be ruled out.

And in a world where there is a glut and excess capacity of goods while
aggregate demand is falling soon enough we will start to worry about
deflation, debt deflation, liquidity traps and what monetary policy makers
should do to fight deflation when policy rates get dangerously close to
zero.

At this point the risk of an imminent stock market crash - like the one-day
collapse of 20% plus in US stock prices in 1987 - cannot be ruled out as the
financial system is breaking down, panic and lack of confidence in any
counterparty is sharply rising and the investors have totally lost faith in
the ability of policy authorities to control this meltdown.

This disconnect between more and more aggressive policy actions and easings
and greater and greater strains in financial market is scary. When Bear
Stearns' creditors were bailed out to the tune of $30 bn in March the rally
in equity, money and credit markets lasted eight weeks; when in July the US
Treasury announced legislation to bail out the mortgage giants Fannie and
Freddie the rally lasted four weeks; when the actual $200 billion rescue of
these firms was undertaken and their $6 trillion liabilities taken over by
the US government the rally lasted one day and by the next day the panic has
moved to Lehman's collapse; when AIG was bailed out to the tune of $85
billion the market did not even rally for a day and instead fell 5%. Next
when the $700 billion US rescue package was passed by the US Senate and
House markets fell another 7% in two days as there was no confidence in this
flawed plan and the authorities. Next as authorities in the US and abroad
took even more radical policy actions between October 6th and October 9th
(payment of interest on reserves, doubling of the liquidity support of
banks, extension of credit to the seized corporate sector, guarantees of
bank deposits, plans to recapitalize banks, coordinated monetary policy
easing, etc.) the stock markets and the credit markets and the money markets
fell further and further and at an accelerated rates day after day all week
including another 7% fall in U.S. equities today.

When in markets that are clearly way oversold even the most radical policy
actions don't provide rallies or relief to market participants you know that
you are one step away from a market crack and a systemic financial sector
and corporate sector collapse. A vicious circle of deleveraging, asset
collapses, margin calls, cascading falls in asset prices well below falling
fundamentals and panic is now underway.

At this point severe damage is done and one cannot rule out a systemic
collapse and a global depression. It will take a significant change in
leadership of economic policy and very radical, coordinated policy actions
among all advanced and emerging market economies to avoid this economic and
financial disaster. Urgent and immediate necessary actions that need to be
done globally (with some variants across countries depending on the severity
of the problem and the overall resources available to the sovereigns)
include:

- another rapid round of policy rate cuts of the order of at least 150 basis
points on average globally;

- a temporary blanket guarantee of all deposits while a triage between
insolvent financial institutions that need to be shut down and distressed
but solvent institutions that need to be partially nationalized with
injections of public capital is made;

- a rapid reduction of the debt burden of insolvent households preceded by a
temporary freeze on all foreclosures;

- massive and unlimited provision of liquidity to solvent financial
institutions;

- public provision of credit to the solvent parts of the corporate sector to
avoid a short-term debt refinancing crisis for solvent but illiquid
corporations and small businesses;

- a massive direct government fiscal stimulus packages that includes public
works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, tax rebates to lower
income households and provision of grants to strapped and crunched state and
local government;

- a rapid resolution of the banking problems via triage, public
recapitalization of financial institutions and reduction of the debt burden
of distressed households and borrowers;

- an agreement between lender and creditor countries running current account
surpluses and borrowing and debtor countries running current account
deficits to maintain an orderly financing of deficits and a recycling of the
surpluses of creditors to avoid a disorderly adjustment of such imbalances.

At this point anything short of these radical and coordinated actions may
lead to a market crash, a global systemic financial meltdown and to a global
depression. At this stage central banks that are usually supposed to be the
"lenders of last resort" need to become the "lenders of first and only
resort" as, under conditions of panic and total loss of confidence, no one
in the private sector is lending to anyone else since counterparty risk is
extreme. And fiscal authorities that usually are spenders and insurers of
last resort need to temporarily become the spenders and insurers of first
resort. The fiscal costs of these actions will be large but the economic and
fiscal costs of inaction would be of a much larger and severe magnitude.
Thus, the time to act is now as all the policy officials of the world are
meeting this weekend in Washington at the IMF and World Bank annual
meetings.

Thursday midnite update: A few hours after I had written this note the
market crash that I warned about is underway in Asia: the Nikkei index in
Japan is down 11% and all other Asian markets are sharply down. This
reinforces the urgency of credible and rapid policy actions by the G7
financial officials who are meeting in a few hours in Washington and the
need to also involve in such global policy coordination the systemically
important emergent market economies. [End]

 

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