whackadoodles go mainstream!
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Covid-19 Speculation Goes From Margin to Center https://fair.org/home/covid-19-speculation-goes-from-margin-to-center/ -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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It is weird, though, how widely varying the outcomes are. Just saying it is, say, obesity isn't a very satisfying explanation.
https://www.wbez.org/stories/in-chicago-70-of-covid-19-deaths-are-black/dd3f295f-445e-4e38-b37f-a1503782b507 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html On 4/20/20, 9:00 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: Covid-19 Speculation Goes From Margin to Center https://fair.org/home/covid-19-speculation-goes-from-margin-to-center/ -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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It doesn't seem very weird to me. Comorbidities are the real killers. The most serious comorbidity of them all is poverty.
On 4/20/20 9:50 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > It is weird, though, how widely varying the outcomes are. Just saying it is, say, obesity isn't a very satisfying explanation. > > https://www.wbez.org/stories/in-chicago-70-of-covid-19-deaths-are-black/dd3f295f-445e-4e38-b37f-a1503782b507 > https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html > > On 4/20/20, 9:00 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: > > > Covid-19 Speculation Goes From Margin to Center > https://fair.org/home/covid-19-speculation-goes-from-margin-to-center/ -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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There are apparently a large set of silent spreaders, and then in-between cases like this:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/entertainment/nick-cordero-coronavirus-leg-amputation-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/health/coronavirus-diary-sickness-brooke-baldwin/index.html It's all over the place in terms of severity. No objection that baseline health and access to healthcare are major factors, but it isn't like all 80 years are struck down. On 4/20/20, 10:09 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: It doesn't seem very weird to me. Comorbidities are the real killers. The most serious comorbidity of them all is poverty. On 4/20/20 9:50 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > It is weird, though, how widely varying the outcomes are. Just saying it is, say, obesity isn't a very satisfying explanation. > > https://www.wbez.org/stories/in-chicago-70-of-covid-19-deaths-are-black/dd3f295f-445e-4e38-b37f-a1503782b507 > https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html > > On 4/20/20, 9:00 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: > > > Covid-19 Speculation Goes From Margin to Center > https://fair.org/home/covid-19-speculation-goes-from-margin-to-center/ -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Well, there seems to be a tendency to identify 1 comorbidity (or complicating situation). But that misses the forest. I wonder at our inability to distinguish cases (and their trajectories) from deaths (and their history). Focusing on any single comorbidity will bias you to thinking COVID-19 is varied or complicated. What we need to do to understand COVID-19 as its own illness is to study those *without* comorbidities.
This blurb hints at the real problem fairly well: "2. What are the common comorbidities associated with severe COVID-19 in US? [...] Of 184 fatal cases, 94% were among persons with one or more major comorbidity." From: https://ari.ucsf.edu/news-and-events/news-alerts/covid-19-task-force-updates But this is nothing new and not at all surprising. One's prognosis for *any* life threatening condition centers around what *else* is going on. Even in something as obtuse as chronic back pain, fibromyalgia, or cancer, your likelihood of surviving or developing coping strategies depends fundamentally on what *else* is going on in your life. If anything, it looks to me like COVID-19 is the comorbidity for those *other* things. On 4/20/20 10:30 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > There are apparently a large set of silent spreaders, and then in-between cases like this: > > https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/entertainment/nick-cordero-coronavirus-leg-amputation-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/health/coronavirus-diary-sickness-brooke-baldwin/index.html > > It's all over the place in terms of severity. No objection that baseline health and access to healthcare are major factors, but it isn't like all 80 years are struck down. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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With HIV there are people that can control the virus and have immunity for practical purposes. [1] Whether or not there are co-morbidities, if one has a strong signal like B*5701 for HIV, it should come out in the statistical wash. Not everyone with a particular HLA will have the same co-morbidity. Anyway, back to the whackadoodle topic: If that is the case, and one had a detailed knowledge of the genetics (e.g. ethnicity) of a target population, one could design a virus to hurt some more than others. But if one is a fascist, it is very easy as you point out: You make everyone sick and the people with health care or he means to stay isolated will tend to survive. I'm not saying that is the case here, I'm just saying maybe it isn't actually impossible.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2814919/ On 4/20/20, 10:47 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: Well, there seems to be a tendency to identify 1 comorbidity (or complicating situation). But that misses the forest. I wonder at our inability to distinguish cases (and their trajectories) from deaths (and their history). Focusing on any single comorbidity will bias you to thinking COVID-19 is varied or complicated. What we need to do to understand COVID-19 as its own illness is to study those *without* comorbidities. This blurb hints at the real problem fairly well: "2. What are the common comorbidities associated with severe COVID-19 in US? [...] Of 184 fatal cases, 94% were among persons with one or more major comorbidity." From: https://ari.ucsf.edu/news-and-events/news-alerts/covid-19-task-force-updates But this is nothing new and not at all surprising. One's prognosis for *any* life threatening condition centers around what *else* is going on. Even in something as obtuse as chronic back pain, fibromyalgia, or cancer, your likelihood of surviving or developing coping strategies depends fundamentally on what *else* is going on in your life. If anything, it looks to me like COVID-19 is the comorbidity for those *other* things. On 4/20/20 10:30 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > There are apparently a large set of silent spreaders, and then in-between cases like this: > > https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/entertainment/nick-cordero-coronavirus-leg-amputation-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/health/coronavirus-diary-sickness-brooke-baldwin/index.html > > It's all over the place in terms of severity. No objection that baseline health and access to healthcare are major factors, but it isn't like all 80 years are struck down. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Re: the statistical wash -- yes, eventually. But for those of us who tend to over-react to everything and demand immediate access to knowledge that will only come a year or years later, it might help to think of COVID-19 as merely a complicating factor and retain the focus on your *current* diseases. And age isn't a disease. But diabetes is, COPD is, etc. If you have any of those, *they* are what you should focus on.
Re: designing SARS-Cov-2 -- These arguments sound a lot like "intelligent design" arguments, to me. You see a pocket watch laying on the ground next to a wild flower and intuitively feel like there must be a God. Sure, is it *logically* possible that a God designed the wild flower? Yes. But is that the most useful explanation? No. The worst conspiracy theory I've seen is this TL;DR, which uses TL;DR as a *weapon* to blind the audience with "science": https://project-evidence.github.io/ https://github.com/Project-Evidence/project-evidence.github.io I'd be curious if anyone in this forum prioritizes that as something to slog through. 8^) It's pretty funny that, when their name "Project E.P.S.T.E.I.N." was too strong of a hint to demonstrate they were bullshitters, they changed their name to seem less conspiratorial. On 4/20/20 11:03 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > With HIV there are people that can control the virus and have immunity for practical purposes. [1] Whether or not there are co-morbidities, if one has a strong signal like B*5701 for HIV, it should come out in the statistical wash. Not everyone with a particular HLA will have the same co-morbidity. Anyway, back to the whackadoodle topic: If that is the case, and one had a detailed knowledge of the genetics (e.g. ethnicity) of a target population, one could design a virus to hurt some more than others. But if one is a fascist, it is very easy as you point out: You make everyone sick and the people with health care or he means to stay isolated will tend to survive. I'm not saying that is the case here, I'm just saying maybe it isn't actually impossible. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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> The worst conspiracy theory I've seen is this TL;DR, which uses TL;DR as a *weapon* to blind the audience with "science": > > https://project-evidence.github.io/ > https://github.com/Project-Evidence/project-evidence.github.io > > I'd be curious if anyone in this forum prioritizes that as something to slog through. 8^) It's pretty funny that, when their name "Project E.P.S.T.E.I.N." was too strong of a hint to demonstrate they were bullshitters, they changed their name to seem less conspiratorial. I definitely made a good run at slogging through but only slogged in until I was over my head which was pretty quick. The E.P.S.T.E.I.N. thing is a strange tangent... I don't know how to decode "backronym"... I also felt they were bending *way* over backwards to claim absolute neutrality... I could measure that as a "doth protest too much" I suppose. You probably have a lot more practice reading stuff like this. I feel blessed that *most* conspiracy-whackadoodle-doodle has grammatical and style hints (like listening to/watching Alex Jones froth) plastered all over it. This is obviously more refined/subtle than that. The lengthiness does seem to hint at trying to exhaust the reader with sheer volume. Do you have a more elaborate analysis of what you think they are up to? - Steve > > On 4/20/20 11:03 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: >> With HIV there are people that can control the virus and have immunity for practical purposes. [1] Whether or not there are co-morbidities, if one has a strong signal like B*5701 for HIV, it should come out in the statistical wash. Not everyone with a particular HLA will have the same co-morbidity. Anyway, back to the whackadoodle topic: If that is the case, and one had a detailed knowledge of the genetics (e.g. ethnicity) of a target population, one could design a virus to hurt some more than others. But if one is a fascist, it is very easy as you point out: You make everyone sick and the people with health care or he means to stay isolated will tend to survive. I'm not saying that is the case here, I'm just saying maybe it isn't actually impossible. > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Not more elaborate, but it falls directly in line with the "influence operations" refined by Schneier:
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2019/08/influence_opera.html On 4/20/20 11:49 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > Do you have a more elaborate analysis of what you think they are up to? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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I looked over that Schneier list, but I didn't find the one that talks about policing the crazy people. :-)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/coronavirus-colorado-health-care-trnd/index.html On 4/20/20, 11:53 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: Not more elaborate, but it falls directly in line with the "influence operations" refined by Schneier: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2019/08/influence_opera.html On 4/20/20 11:49 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > Do you have a more elaborate analysis of what you think they are up to? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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In reply to this post by Steve Smith
Steve, you waded in further than I did. I stopped when it was about to go over the tops of my boots :-) On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 1:50 PM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
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In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
Ha! Yeah, well, I try to be as generous with "crazy" as I am with "intelligent". I think it's effective to consider the crazy people as Evil Geniuses, intent on damaging the world. When you stare into a troll's eyes, the troll stares back at you.
On 4/20/20 12:00 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > I looked over that Schneier list, but I didn't find the one that talks about policing the crazy people. :-) > > https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/coronavirus-colorado-health-care-trnd/index.html -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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In reply to this post by gepr
Glen - Thanks for that link/reference. I appreciate that there ARE such things as "influence operations" and Schneier's description is helpful, but I guess I'm still not clear on how I can tell objectively that "project evidence" is up to that. To build my own strawman that maybe you can bolster up to more of a steelman:
I guess what I was asking for is whether you found any specific elements or if there is a more specific (than my lame list above) structural thing to question. I *didn't* follow the myriad references and validate them, and I *don't* have a broad enough understanding of the field to estimate how biased their list of articles is... if they are blatantly cherry picking or what? When publication like this was much harder, the volume of material was small enough that it seems like traditional journalists could possibly keep up with more in-depth analysis? I suppose rather than asking YOU if/how you have done its, or if
I should go search for other critical analysis of this
"project"... - Steve Not more elaborate, but it falls directly in line with the "influence operations" refined by Schneier: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2019/08/influence_opera.html On 4/20/20 11:49 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:Do you have a more elaborate analysis of what you think they are up to? .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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In reply to this post by gepr
Infestation is the world that comes to my mind in that example.
On 4/20/20, 12:13 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: Ha! Yeah, well, I try to be as generous with "crazy" as I am with "intelligent". I think it's effective to consider the crazy people as Evil Geniuses, intent on damaging the world. When you stare into a troll's eyes, the troll stares back at you. On 4/20/20 12:00 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > I looked over that Schneier list, but I didn't find the one that talks about policing the crazy people. :-) > > https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/coronavirus-colorado-health-care-trnd/index.html -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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In reply to this post by Steve Smith
You can't *objectively* tell. That's the whole point. But what you can do is check your impressions against those of others. My personal impression is that this "article" is complete bullshit. I feel *certain* that at least some of the people here, if they read the whole article, will conclude the opposite.
I won't list my bullshit triggers the article sets off. Bullshit replicates exponentially faster and more efficient than its debunking. So my debunking would be lost in the wind. But I can point to 1 easy step you can take: https://smmry.com/https://project-evidence.github.io/#&SM_LENGTH=10 Play around with the length. It's interesting. On 4/20/20 1:12 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: > Thanks for that link/reference. I appreciate that there ARE such things as "influence operations" and Schneier's description is helpful, but I guess I'm still not clear on how I can tell objectively that "project evidence" is up to that. To build my own strawman that maybe you can bolster up to more of a steelman: > > 1. I have a gut reaction to it that says "this feels like the kind of conspiracy-theory the trolls-I-know-to-hate are likely to be hatching". > 2. The EPSTEIN thing is weird... I guess if they'd just removed the reference and not referenced it, THAT would have been even more of a hint that they were up to no good. > 3. The tone of the introduction, etc. seems a bit "protest too much" > 4. The sheer bulk of the material without obvious additional organization feels like a "dogpile" technique (ro maybe as you suggest "baffle-em-with-bullshit" or TL;DR ? > > I guess what I was asking for is whether you found any specific elements or if there is a more specific (than my lame list above) structural thing to question. I *didn't* follow the myriad references and validate them, and I *don't* have a broad enough understanding of the field to estimate how biased their list of articles is... if they are blatantly cherry picking or what? > > When publication like this was much harder, the volume of material was small enough that it seems like traditional journalists could possibly keep up with more in-depth analysis? > > I suppose rather than asking YOU if/how you have done its, or if I should go search for other critical analysis of this "project"... -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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My main concern would be about their priorities: We should figure out what to do about this rather than who to blame for it. If the original source were a lab that changes little right now compared to if it were a market.
On 4/20/20, 1:51 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: You can't *objectively* tell. That's the whole point. But what you can do is check your impressions against those of others. My personal impression is that this "article" is complete bullshit. I feel *certain* that at least some of the people here, if they read the whole article, will conclude the opposite. I won't list my bullshit triggers the article sets off. Bullshit replicates exponentially faster and more efficient than its debunking. So my debunking would be lost in the wind. But I can point to 1 easy step you can take: https://smmry.com/https://project-evidence.github.io/#&SM_LENGTH=10 Play around with the length. It's interesting. On 4/20/20 1:12 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: > Thanks for that link/reference. I appreciate that there ARE such things as "influence operations" and Schneier's description is helpful, but I guess I'm still not clear on how I can tell objectively that "project evidence" is up to that. To build my own strawman that maybe you can bolster up to more of a steelman: > > 1. I have a gut reaction to it that says "this feels like the kind of conspiracy-theory the trolls-I-know-to-hate are likely to be hatching". > 2. The EPSTEIN thing is weird... I guess if they'd just removed the reference and not referenced it, THAT would have been even more of a hint that they were up to no good. > 3. The tone of the introduction, etc. seems a bit "protest too much" > 4. The sheer bulk of the material without obvious additional organization feels like a "dogpile" technique (ro maybe as you suggest "baffle-em-with-bullshit" or TL;DR ? > > I guess what I was asking for is whether you found any specific elements or if there is a more specific (than my lame list above) structural thing to question. I *didn't* follow the myriad references and validate them, and I *don't* have a broad enough understanding of the field to estimate how biased their list of articles is... if they are blatantly cherry picking or what? > > When publication like this was much harder, the volume of material was small enough that it seems like traditional journalists could possibly keep up with more in-depth analysis? > > I suppose rather than asking YOU if/how you have done its, or if I should go search for other critical analysis of this "project"... -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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In reply to this post by gepr
Good article to have on hand; thanks Glen.
You guys know this organism, right? Have I posted it to the list before? Look through the lifecycle, and particularly the video. The sort of extravagant, flamboyant cruelty to invent something like this is what makes it stand out to me. More lurid than Glen’s pictures of hands with holes, for what bothers me. When I try to get the right mental metaphor for the parasite class, who will work to make the country worse and less-capable of doing _anything_ functional and needed, this is the model that most nearly comes to mind for me. Once the snails are infected, having the sun come up to remind them to hide doesn’t do anything, because they can’t see any more. That’s what we somehow have to figure out how to deal with.
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Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
If a lab was the origin, the possibility exists that the lab, or one or more scientists at that lab, might have information about the virus that would be worth sharing. If the origin was a market then no such information would exist.
I do not believe that any of the "theories" about the origin have any purpose other than to point fingers, place blame. One reason for this would be to advance other arguments — typical conspiracy nonsense, Another would be to identify a government or a lab or any entity with deep pockets. You can't sue a wet market. It would be nice to believe that scientists are ethical people, and if the virus originated in a lab, and if there was a block of information about the virus, those aware of that information would find some way to smuggle it out, at least to WHO. davew On Mon, Apr 20, 2020, at 3:23 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > My main concern would be about their priorities: We should figure out > what to do about this rather than who to blame for it. If the original > source were a lab that changes little right now compared to if it were > a market. > > On 4/20/20, 1:51 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" > <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote: > > You can't *objectively* tell. That's the whole point. But what you > can do is check your impressions against those of others. My personal > impression is that this "article" is complete bullshit. I feel > *certain* that at least some of the people here, if they read the whole > article, will conclude the opposite. > > I won't list my bullshit triggers the article sets off. Bullshit > replicates exponentially faster and more efficient than its debunking. > So my debunking would be lost in the wind. But I can point to 1 easy > step you can take: > > https://smmry.com/https://project-evidence.github.io/#&SM_LENGTH=10 > > Play around with the length. It's interesting. > > On 4/20/20 1:12 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: > > Thanks for that link/reference. I appreciate that there ARE > such things as "influence operations" and Schneier's description is > helpful, but I guess I'm still not clear on how I can tell objectively > that "project evidence" is up to that. To build my own strawman that > maybe you can bolster up to more of a steelman: > > > > 1. I have a gut reaction to it that says "this feels like the > kind of conspiracy-theory the trolls-I-know-to-hate are likely to be > hatching". > > 2. The EPSTEIN thing is weird... I guess if they'd just removed > the reference and not referenced it, THAT would have been even more of > a hint that they were up to no good. > > 3. The tone of the introduction, etc. seems a bit "protest too > much" > > 4. The sheer bulk of the material without obvious additional > organization feels like a "dogpile" technique (ro maybe as you suggest > "baffle-em-with-bullshit" or TL;DR ? > > > > I guess what I was asking for is whether you found any specific > elements or if there is a more specific (than my lame list above) > structural thing to question. I *didn't* follow the myriad references > and validate them, and I *don't* have a broad enough understanding of > the field to estimate how biased their list of articles is... if they > are blatantly cherry picking or what? > > > > When publication like this was much harder, the volume of > material was small enough that it seems like traditional journalists > could possibly keep up with more in-depth analysis? > > > > I suppose rather than asking YOU if/how you have done its, or if > I should go search for other critical analysis of this "project"... > > > -- > ☣ uǝlƃ > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. > .- ... .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- > ... .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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There is discussion in here about the kind of mosaic it is, and the nearest identified variants for different parts. I find this interesting as a question in evolutionary dynamics of either convergence or recombination. The question of how “hard” an engineering problem it is to find non-local optimizers for various biding problems if you happen not to have templates in the same basin of attraction is an interesting question to me in methods of protein biochemistry. The question of what level of sophistication we currently imagine is in use around the world is a potentially interesting question of sophistication versus availability of method, also practical if one works in threat defenses.
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Re: whackadoodles go mainstream!
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As a ballpark the receptor binding domain is 211 residues, so 20^211, however only a small part of it seems to be actively evolving. [1] (see Table 1) https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.986398v1 From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of David Eric Smith <[hidden email]>
There is discussion in here about the kind of mosaic it is, and the nearest identified variants for different parts. I find this interesting as a question in evolutionary dynamics of either convergence or recombination. The question of
how “hard” an engineering problem it is to find non-local optimizers for various biding problems if you happen not to have templates in the same basin of attraction is an interesting question to me in methods of protein biochemistry. The question of what
level of sophistication we currently imagine is in use around the world is a potentially interesting question of sophistication versus availability of method, also practical if one works in threat defenses.
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