Re: FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/FW-EXT-Your-Coronavirus-Tracker-tp7600290p7600293.html
CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011
CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018
CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044
CFR for MA as a whole is 13,583/465,726 = .030
So the question remains, why am I four times less likely to die if I get sick here in Santa Fe, than if I go back to Hampshire County? Putting aside the fallacy of induction. The whole thing is a little crazy because Hampshire county includes none of the big Massachusetts hot spots. I suppose it’s imponderable, but I just though I would see what the list thinks about it.
N
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Alexander Rasmus
Sent: Sunday, January 17, 2021 12:20 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
Nick,
You're making this harder than it has to be. The nyt gives you total cases and total deaths directly. You can divide total deaths by total cases to get the case fatality rate.
CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011
CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018
CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044
CFR for MA as a whole is 13,583/465,726 = .030
Best,
Alex
On Sun, Jan 17, 2021 at 10:31 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Dear Mathematically Competent Colleagues,
See below.
Do you agree that the population case rate divided by the population divided by the population death rate is equal to case fatality rate? If so, the case fatality rate in Santa Fe County is very low, a little over one percent whereas the case fatality rate in Hampshire County, Massachusetts, (where I have not been for a year but has a comparable population) is little over 4 percent. I tried to add King County Wa, where Glen is, because it was an early participant in the pandemic as was Massachusetts, but the tracker wont let me add new entries, today. The case fatality rate in MA is a tad under 5%, if my calculations are correct. In other words, if you catch covid in MA, with the world’s fanciest hospitals, you 4+ times more likely to die than if you catch it in New Mexico. Now, I was tempted to attribute this to the hospitals: i.e, terminal cases were coming into MA hospitals from other states, but Hampshire County doesn’t HAVE any fancy hospitals.
Hopefully this all because I am dividing reciprocals wrong. Does [1/a]/[1/b] = b/a?
n
From: The New York Times <[hidden email]>
Sent: Sunday, January 17, 2021 7:38 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
The latest numbers from New Mexico, Santa Fe County, N.M., Massachusetts, …
January 17, 2021
The latest U.S. coronavirus data from the places that matter most to you.
New Mexico
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in New Mexico fell to 1,134 yesterday, a 5 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 13 people who live in New Mexico have been infected, and at least 1 in 720 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
1,088
1,134
54
–3%
162,893
Deaths
36
25
1.21
–18%
2,912
Hospitalized
632
685
33
–11%
MAPS & CHARTS: NEW MEXICO
Did someone forward you this email? Build your own daily Covid tracker.
United States
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in the United States fell to 224,499 yesterday, a 3 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 14 people who live in the United States have been infected, and at least 1 in 838 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
201,732
224,499
68
+9%
23,813,966
Deaths
3,353
3,319
1.00
+27%
395,882
Hospitalized
126,139
129,008
39
+5%
MAPS & CHARTS: UNITED STATES
Santa Fe County, N.M.
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Santa Fe County fell to 64 yesterday, a 9 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 17 people who live in Santa Fe County have been infected, and at least 1 in 1,600 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
67
64
42
+5%
8,629
Deaths
3
1
0.76
–20%
94
MAPS & CHARTS: NEW MEXICO
Massachusetts
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Massachusetts fell to 5,513 yesterday, a 4 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 15 people who live in Massachusetts have been infected, and at least 1 in 507 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
5,799
5,513
80
+12%
465,726
Deaths
74
73
1.05
+3%
13,583
Hospitalized
2,197
2,211
32
–2%
MAPS & CHARTS: MASSACHUSETTS
Hampshire County, Mass.
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Hampshire County fell to 66 yesterday, a 6 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 32 people who live in Hampshire County have been infected, and at least 1 in 734 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
65
66
41
+11%
4,952
Deaths
5
2
0.98
–35%
219
MAPS & CHARTS: MASSACHUSETTS
Harris County, Texas
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Harris County fell to 3,093 yesterday, a 3 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 17 people who live in Harris County have been infected, and at least 1 in 1,248 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
3,110
3,093
66
+23%
281,422
Deaths
54
28
0.59
+104%
3,777
MAPS & CHARTS: TEXAS
Source: New York Times database of reports from state and local health agencies and hospitals. Population and demographic data from Census Bureau. Hospitalization data from the Covid Tracking Project.
14-day change trends are calculated with 7-day averages. Numbers may be revised to reflect improvements in data reporting. View your tracker online for the most up to date figures. For more about how this data was collected and compiled see our F.A.Q. page.
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