http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/How-soon-until-AI-takes-over-polling-tp7599471p7599506.html
other systems might work. I believe some people in the ML community
are trying this, but it is not all that common yet. It is hard enough
>
>
> On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <
[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?
>
>
> I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are active
> and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have understood)
> that it is rare and limited. I spent some time looking at the zero-shot
> language translation, as something I wanted to convene at SFI, with the AI goal
> of unpacking what was the “universal language” internal representation, and
> with the linguistics goal of using it in cognate classification and historical
> reconstruction. Never could get a call-back from any of the google people.
> But I didn’t think at the time that zero-shot had been unpacked.
>
> Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.
>
> Eric
>
>
>
> Happy Veterans Day,
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <
[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> Friam poll:
>
> How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
>
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html>
> If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the
> users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is
> likely to vote.
>
> At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the
> phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people
> who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that
> the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too
> small to have any political impact at all.
>
> How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend
> on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs
> should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.
>
> So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private
> rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times it
> produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is
> based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to
> extrapolate out of sample.
>
> Eric
>
>
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