Re: high turnout and tight races?
Posted by
Gary Schiltz-4 on
Oct 29, 2020; 2:40am
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/high-turnout-and-tight-races-tp7599243p7599253.html
I think that Republicans make up way less than half of the population, but the people who are traditionally less inclined to vote, would vote Democrat if they voted. This is responsible for Republicans lately getting very slightly over half the votes cast. I further believe that most of the newly motivated voters come from this heretofore underrepresented left leaning group, hence the likelihood of the Democratic margin of victory being larger this year. Whether that implies a correlation between turnout and margin of victory, I will leave it to the statisticians to argue over.
Incidentally, I have warned to the idea of mandatory voting, as we have here in Ecuador, and I believe in Australia as well. Without a “papel de votación”, i.e. a certificate that proves that you voted in the previous election, you have to pay a fine in order to get government services such ad drivers licenses.
On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:16 PM Roger Critchlow <
[hidden email]> wrote:
I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or close outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss with more votes in play.
-- rec --
On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <
[hidden email]> wrote:
N = 3 is slightly better. But I don't have time or incentive to do a detailed statistical analysis.
In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40. The Kennedy/Nixon and Gore/Bush elections were extremely close. In all three elections the turnout was between 35 and 40 percent.
I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a very close election.
So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories?
On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted votes. Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly voting against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a similar margin, according to polls.
>
> The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated perfectly after the events have happened.
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email] <mailto:[hidden email]>> wrote:
>
> From:
>
> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>
> "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
>
> Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin victories, not against them.
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↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
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