Re: high turnout and tight races?

Posted by Frank Wimberly-2 on Oct 28, 2020; 11:52pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/high-turnout-and-tight-races-tp7599243p7599245.html

I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted votes.  Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly voting against Trump.  Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a similar margin, according to polls.

The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated perfectly after the events have happened.

Frank

On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email]> wrote:

From:

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7
"6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."

Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin victories, not against them.

--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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