Re: the end of the pandemic

Posted by Steve Smith on
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/the-end-of-the-pandemic-tp7595888p7595945.html

Dave -

The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.

Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond to the singular prediction above:

What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe to indicate that the pandemic has ended?

From Wikipedia:

A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν, pan, "all" and δῆμος, demos, "people") is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people. A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.

The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/

In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.

Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?

- Steve

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