Re: climate change questions
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/climate-change-questions-tp7594117p7594134.html
From the aforementioned article:
I was particularly bemused by the escarpment at the bottom of the diagram:
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:34 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
an anonymous source tossed this across my transom a bit ago. Worth sharing I think
davew
On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 8:29 PM, Prof David West wrote:
> Nick,
>
> I am not overwhelmingly concerned with steady climate change per se;
> it is the variability that is the real concern, as you point out. Even
> more scary are all the side effects as massive migrations that fail to
> respect existing political boundaries ensue with a concomitant rise in
> nationalism and all the joys it will bring us.
>
> davew
>
>
> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 7:09 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> > Dave,
> >
> > I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take
> > them as a challenge.
> >
> > What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if
> > somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to
> > climate change and human activity? By what process, with what
> > attitudes, by what rules of engagement, are we likely to arrive at
> > ANY truth of that matter. Because, if we, here, cannot agree on
> > some matters, agreement would seem to be beyond human reach.
> >
> > So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts
> > as stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are)
> > are not as bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am
> > inclined to believe that in fact Things are worse. The only
> > specific data I feel I have been exposed to recently is ocean
> > surface rise and glacial melting. But even there, I would be hard
> > pressed to match your specific references to any of my own. So, I
> > guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I am talking about. Ugh!
> >
> > I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following
> > concern: what we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long
> > term climate warming, is increases in year-to-year climate
> > variability. You can grow rape seed in Canada and maize in the US,
> > and as the climate alters, the bands of climate supporting these two
> > crops will move north. But what happens if one year the climate
> > demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from one to
> > the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden
> > knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the
> > productivity of your garden: first frost and last frost. The
> > average frost free period in my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but
> > only a few miles away, it is as short as 90. And while we have
> > never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last frost dates in June
> > and first frost dates in early September. It would take a very
> > small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50 wasteplot.
> >
> > I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the
> > Holocene, is a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY.
> > I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in
> > the last ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely
> > dependent on that anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not
> > too stupid to do agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would
> > not permit it. The whole idea of nation states depends on the idea
> > that one can make more or less the same kind of living by staying
> > more or less in the same place and doing more or less the same
> > thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation would obliterate that possibility.
> >
> > If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global
> > Warming-- we are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by
> > God, I think I could scare the Living Crap out of you.
> >
> > The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to
> > do it, and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's
> > value could be harvested for the long run.
> >
> > Happy New Year!
> >
> > Nick
> >
> > Nicholas Thompson
> > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University
> > [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> > Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM
> > To: [hidden email]
> > Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions
> >
> > Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of
> > climate change.
> >
> > In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that
> > because of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an
> > average of 3 degrees Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest
> > producer, by an average of 6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2020.
> >
> > The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature
> > increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely
> > expectations being 3-5 by the year 2020.
> >
> > The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.
> >
> > The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted
> > the end of domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.
> >
> > The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.
> >
> > Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,
> > argument for the need to address climate change in the context of
> > badly incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available
> > scientific models, and over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated
> > by those with political or simply "circulation" motives.
> >
> > In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar
> > everyone expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?
> >
> > Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the
> > proposed "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"
> >
> > Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to
> > carbon scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios,
> > human socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?
> >
> > Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if
> > so, how do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will
> > optimize our chances?
> >
> > davew
> >
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