Friam

Re: Climate Change

Posted by Marcus G. Daniels on
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Climate-Change-tp7590999p7591030.html

"Show me the climate models that are consistent with the roman warm period, the medieval warm period, the mini ice age and the modern warm period, then we talk again."


I guess we can count on Trump's administration to fund these very advanced multi-scale, multi-epoch models and the planet-sized supercomputers that will be needed to run them.  Or maybe we should just rely on his common sense and his buddies in industry to tell us what to do.


Marcus


From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]>
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 1:37:32 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
 
Climate change is very interesting. There is evidence (as per the graphs in the 1990 IPCC report) that the climate has changed significantly in the past. We had a mini ice age that ended about 1850 and since then we had the industrial revolution with the accomponing rise in CO2.

Show me the climate models that are consistent with the roman warm period, the medieval warm period, the mini ice age and the modern warm period, then we talk again.

The IPCC model takes the temperatures since the end of the mini ice age (1850) till now where the natural climate change would probably have resulted in an increase in temperatures in any case? (Maybe not, but it's definitely not inconsistent with previous temperatures).

Now they develop models to prove that the increase in temperatures since  1850 was caused by an increase in CO2 levels? And they admit that the increase the 15 years prior to the latest report has flattened out significantly.

I don't disagree with the basic science that CO2 equilibrium climate sensitivity is about 1 degree centigrade per doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels. But that is probably insignificant compared to natural climate variability? I don't know? (But neither has the IPCC convinced me that they have a clue)

On 29 December 2017 at 22:11, Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

"My problem is that I fear that we have passed the point of no possible remedy.  There was a meme which was a graph of global mean temperature for the last several centuries.  There was a sharp transient to the high side in recent decades."

Hippopatumus in Cologne could be fun.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]>
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 1:04:39 PM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
 
My problem is that I fear that we have passed the point of no possible remedy.  There was a meme which was a graph of global mean temperature for the last several centuries.  There was a sharp transient to the high side in recent decades.

Frank

----
Frank Wimberly
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
Phone <a href="tel:(505)%20670-9918" value="&#43;15056709918" target="_blank">(505) 670-9918

On Dec 29, 2017 12:59 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <[hidden email]> wrote:

And of course, the errors can be in either direction.  Large organizations tend to avoid controversy, not seek it out.

Other alternative views can be quite terrifying...


http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015.pdf


How about boulders like below being tossed around in storms near Miami, Shanghai, etc.


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589497919268


From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]>
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 12:46:13 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
 

"In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3 degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years."


The second plot gives an idea of how these estimates, based on observation, could go wrong.  However, the first plot in the first image shows a trend over a larger interval, which is consistent with matching the observational & simulation outputs for longer periods. 




From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]>
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 12:16:38 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
 
Thank you, I do appreciate.

Let me start with my background. I have done modeling for predictions in engineering applications as a major part of my professional career of 40 years. I am now doing deep learning for making predictions. (Not necessarily relevant to this discussion, but I do combine ABM to get the emerging properties of the system as part of the deep learning exercise - a very exciting endeavor).

In my career, I have made many technical mistakes. I guess this is part of making predictions based on models. I do not have any climate modeling expertise, but I do measure their success in the accuracy of the model's predictions.

In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3 degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years. 

Maybe they are right in their new disaster predictions? IMO it would give them some credibility if they admit the uncertainties.

On 29 December 2017 at 20:44, uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Yes, I think so.  The trick, I think, is to demonstrate respect for those with whom we disagree.  If someone posts, without rancor, an argument (preferably with data) arguing that the models are wrong in a crucial way, I know *I* would be interested.

I've posted tons of contrarian and stubborn, perhaps even stupid, opinions and have been treated with respect.


On 12/29/2017 10:34 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> Is it possible to have, in this group, a civil discussion where the accepted view of the IPCC that unless we reduce CO2 emissions we are heading for disaster is challenged?
--
☣ uǝlƃ

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============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove


============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
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