Re: Model of induction

Posted by Eric Charles-2 on Dec 12, 2016; 6:44pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Model-of-induction-tp7588431p7588434.html

I'll assume you meant something generic like: "focus its play on those wheels with the longest runs [of unusual results, whatever form that might take]."

With that in mind, your test better work. If it doesn't, then casinos and players have wasted a lot of time worrying about loaded equipment.

Or, to phrase it differently, if I'm the casino manager, and you tell me we have a problem with a loaded wheel, you'll have my attention. However, if you also tell me that someone following the proposed plan couldn't possibly detect the difference between the loaded wheel and a non-loaded one, then you'll lose my attention, because apparently you don't know what the word "loaded" means.

Now, you (Nick) might be pointing out that if we spun each wheel a million times, then concluded which one was the loaded one, and made a fortune betting smartly for the next million spins... it is still the case that our conclusion may be drawn into suspicion during the third million spins. That strikes me as a different problem... That is, the question of the best way to make money off of a loaded wheel shouldn't be held up by generic reference to the problem of induction.

On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 12:44 PM, Robert J. Cordingley <[hidden email]> wrote:

Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like abduction (AAA-2) to me - ie developing an educated guess as to which might be the winning wheel. Enough funds should find it with some degree of certainty but that may be a different question and should use different statistics because the 'longest run' is a poor metric compared to say net winnings or average rate of winning. A long run is itself a data point and the premise in red (below) is false.

Waiting for wisdom to kick in. R

PS FWIW the article does not contain the phrase 'scientific induction' R

On 12/12/16 12:31 AM, Nick Thompson wrote:

Dear Wise Persons,

 

Would the following work? 

 

Imagine you enter a casino that has a thousand roulette tables.  The rumor circulates around the casino that one of the wheels is loaded.  So, you call up a thousand of your friends and you all work together to find the loaded wheel.  Why, because if you use your knowledge to play that wheel you will make a LOT of money.  Now the problem you all face, of course, is that a run of successes is not an infallible sign of a loaded wheel.  In fact, given randomness, it is assured that with a thousand players playing a thousand wheels as fast as they can, there will be random long runs of successes.  But the longer a run of success continues, the greater is the probability that the wheel that produces those successes is biased.  So, your team of players would be paid, on this account, for beginning to focus its play on those wheels with the longest runs.

 

FWIW, this, I think, is Peirce’s model of scientific induction. 

 

Nick

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

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