Re: Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

Posted by Frank Wimberly-2 on Nov 05, 2016; 6:20pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Trump-Is-Just-A-Normal-Polling-Error-Behind-Clinton-FiveThirtyEight-tp7588069p7588095.html

Somewhat more optimistic, from my point of view:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone [phone]

On Nov 5, 2016 11:42 AM, "Owen Densmore" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting 538 info-graphic, which also makes the 65%-35% "chance to win" much less secure: 

   -- Owen

The winding path to 270 electoral votes

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 10:55 AM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

That is really good, Frank. 

 

Thanks,

 

Nick

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Saturday, November 05, 2016 10:06 AM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Lesser of two evils?

Posted on Facebook by Ricky Martin

Trump admitting sexual assault. Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud. Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation. Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk. Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba. Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud. Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA. Clinton emails. Trump doesn't pay taxes for 20 years. Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia. Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US. Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate. Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia's Crimea occupation. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria. Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination. Clinton emails. Trump files for bankruptcy 6 times. Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics. Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs. Clinton emails. Trump calls Mexicans rapists. Clinton emails. Trump questions judge's integrity because of parent's heritage. Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal. Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after Florida hurricane. Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse. Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms America for being overweight. Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am. Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo. Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used. Clinton emails. Trump asks why cant we use our nukes if we have them. Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger. Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists. Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions. Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people. Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press. Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a Chinese hoax. Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un's strong leadership. Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate. Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate non-citizen hundreds of times over 7 years. Clinton emails. Trump uses campaign donations to enrich his own businesses. Clinton emails. Trump says laziness is an inherent trait in black people. Clinton emails.

Frank Wimberly
Phone <a href="tel:%28505%29%20670-9918" value="[phone]" target="_blank">[phone]

 

On Nov 4, 2016 5:31 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[hidden email]> wrote:

Oh.  Ok;  I thought you meant Liberals and I could not make that work.  Thanks for the clarification.

 

n

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 2:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Nick --

 

Just joking that Libertarians (ie libbies) should refuse to take campaign funding from the government and refuse to participate in government run elections, or they're clearly acting as LINO's (Libertarians In Name Only).  Sorry, it was an old joke the first time.

 

-- rec --

 

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 4:12 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hi Roger,

 

Perhaps my humor and imagination have been totally destroyed by this election (which somebody aptly described as a political dumpster fire), but … I didn’t understand your comment,  AND I want to.

 

Nick

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 1:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight

 

Aren't the libbies constitutionally required to disdain funding from the government?  Seems like they should disdain elections, too, hold out for victory by acclamation?

 

-- rec --

 

 

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:28 PM, ┣glen┫ <[hidden email]> wrote:

On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Very nice presentation.  Thanks, Marcus!

On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their mouths are were saying:
>
> https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

That's only 1 market.  Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this list?) aggregates some markets:
http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ChartPres.png

But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of course, in various amounts.  So, it's not clear whether these markets are predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be.

> Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"?   There sure is a lot of volatility!

My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the late-comers digging into the subject.  Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed their opinion.  More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't affect that.  But those who only started really paying attention last month may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's and Trump's foibles and qualities.  The falsifying question would be: What % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started digging?

I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also forget where I learned about that one. [sigh]

> Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and automatic ballot inclusion next round.

It would be great to see the Green party get the funding.  I wouldn't celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though.

--
␦glen?

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