Re: Hope?

Posted by Robert Wall on Oct 03, 2016; 11:05pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Hope-tp7587915p7587916.html

Thanks, Glen.  Quite interesting. 

This simulation ensemble conducted by FiveThirtyEight gives some plausibility to New Mexico becoming the new Florida with Gary Johnson--not Jill Stein--playing the part of Ralph Nader.  It also gives some non-zero plausibility to Gary Johnson becoming the next POTUS.  So why isn't Johnson in the debates?  Isn't plausibility the real criterion?  We need to find out more about this potential next POTUS.  Yes? 🤔😁

On Mon, Oct 3, 2016 at 1:23 PM, glen ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:

Election Update: The Craziest End To The 2016 Campaign Runs Through New Mexico
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/

"In 20,000 simulations of our polls-only model this morning, cases in which neither Clinton nor Trump received a majority of electoral votes and Johnson received at least one came up just 30 times, putting the chances at 0.15 percent."

I _wish_ I could run 20k simulations in one morning! 8^)  I just optimized our code so that drug moving from the heterogeneous lobule into the well-mixed body compartment are converted from objects to integer counts.  That cut execution time by several orders of magnitude... but each experiment still takes ~10-12 hours.

--
glen

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