Re: Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth Arrow
Posted by
Steve Smith on
Sep 09, 2016; 6:55pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Wisdom-of-Crowds-vs-Kenneth-Arrow-tp7587842p7587861.html
On 9/7/16 1:51 PM, Marcus Daniels
wrote:
I
just returned from a trip from the UK. I think rumors of
the demise of their economy have been greatly exaggerated.
Brexit
will hurt the people that voted for it, just like Trump
would hurt the people that voted for him. These aren’t
the people that keep things running; they are the rear guard
for a retreat from globalization that won’t work and can’t
happen. Sure, Brexit will be an administrative nightmare,
but decentralized control also has benefits in the long run.
I heard an interesting analysis from another LANL friend who works
in Global Security and by my measure is a pretty well informed and
deeply introspective wonk on the topics of international politics
and it's practical upshot.
He also recently returned from the UK (pleasure not business) and
said something that matches my own experience, such as it is. He
said that he predicts that in spite of the vote, by the time the 2
years are up for exercising the actual Brexit, there will not turn
out to be enough will of the people (or bureaucrats) to actually
effect it and at that time, it will time out and they will not have
actually Brexited, as it were... and business will return to
"normal". I am probably hacking this badly, but that is how I
understood what he said.
I have two young colleaugues who live in the UK (many of you know
them) who essentially entered their careers under the (new then) EU
and it hugely shaped them personally and professionally. Much of
who they have become and what they do would have been radically
different if not for the EU and Britain's involvement. There are
huge implications for both of them (they work all over the EU
together as freelancers currently, but live primarily in Wales).
One will have to leave the UK and the other won't be (openly)
welcome in the EU. They will probably survive, find a way to make
it around the system as it evolves. I hope for them that the above
scenario is a likely one (a miscarriage of the Brexit in 2 years).
From:
Friam [[hidden email]]
On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Wednesday, September 07, 2016 9:10 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth
Arrow
Slightly
OT, but: The Brexit signaled the start of truly
unexpected events. Italy, btw, is also having a
referendum.
But
here's the Dallas News endorsing Hilary .. first dem
endorsment in over 70 years!
l
guess these are the years of Expect the Unexpected!
On Wed, Sep 7, 2016 at 8:39 AM, Steven
A Smith <[hidden email]>
wrote:
I know we try to avoid getting into
political discussions here, and that is not what I'm
trying t draw you into. Out of my infamous morbid
fascination, I *have* been following the presidential
campaigns this past year or more and in particular
comparing the many running *polls* to the *Iowa
Electronic Markets*
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
It is most interesting to me how much the WTA vs the
popular vote prices in the IEM diverge. It definitely
supports MY (reluctant) preferences in this context, but
it IS disturbing in a democracy that the representative
factor (electoral college in this case) seems to either
magnify a small lead, or even perhaps bias it?
The polls seem to be somewhat "all over the place" which
I suspect reflects the methodology for sampling the
population in each case. Perhaps someone here has some
professional experience with polling methodologies or
theory can illuminate a little?
This has impact on the debates. At this point, it looks
like the Libs and the Greens will be shut out of the
upcoming debates, in spite of the likely absurdity of a
Trump/Clinton debate, given their personal styles and
stances. 3rd party debaters would surely add some
signal to what is likely to be nearly purely noise
otherwise?
As a side note, I am disappointed with how little
traction either Gary or Jill are getting this time
around. As UNpopular as both of the primary candidates
are, and as relatively acceptable (both Jill and Gary
seem to have serious intentions, serious campaigns and
serious platforms) candidates are, why don't we see
higher/growing polling numbers? Is it the ominosity of
the elections themselves? Everyone is afraid of
creating a "spoiler"?
This re-invigorates my interest in Ranked Voting
Systems. Do we have any Psephologists (pebble counters)
in the house with insight into Ranked Voting Systems?
http://www.fairvote.org/
seems to be the main organization promoting RVS at the
national level but I don't see a roadmap of what it
would take to actually change our system to embrace
this?
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