Re: One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State

Posted by Roger Critchlow-2 on Nov 05, 2012; 6:56am
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/One-State-Two-State-Red-State-Blue-State-tp7580935p7580950.html

Hmm, Nate Silver's trend lines for senate control reversed on August 19, the day that Todd Akin made his "legitimate rape" remarks.  On that day the Republicans had a 61.5% chance of winning a senate majority and it's been all down hill for them since then.  The odds were 50% a week later.  By the 17th of September Silver gave the Democrats a 70.1% chance of winning the senate.  So maybe the punters on the Iowa market were just waking up late.

I wonder what sort of "teachable moment" will arise when Nate Silver correctly calls 49 or 48 states in this election.  Will the Republicans grudgingly become believers in statistical meta-analysis?  Or will they try to pass legislation outlawing it?

-- rec --

On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 10:59 PM, Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

Found an answer to my question: Mitt's 47% deadbeats secret video is datelined Sept 17 on Mother Jones.

The price of RH_DS was 0.244 on the 17th, and 0.724 on the 28th.

The price of RH_RS was 0.450 on the 17th, and 0.065 on the 28th.

That's a pretty astonishing reversal in Senate expectations from a Presidential candidate event.

-- rec --

On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 3:16 PM, Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote:

The market for congressional control is going strongly toward RepublicanHouseDemocraticSenate (RH_DS).

Anyone remember what happened in mid-September?

-- rec --

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