Re: The Presidential Election

Posted by Roger Critchlow-2 on Nov 04, 2012; 9:42pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/The-Presidential-Election-tp7580914p7580932.html

I watched an interesting video interview with three British bookies who run online political betting markets the other day.  They agreed that there had been concerted attempts to skew the markets to favor Romney, all of which had been eaten alive in short order by bettors happy to take the Obama side at the odds offered.  The markets are all holding at the Nate Silver probabilities.

-- rec --

On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 2:18 PM, Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Out of all the "polls" out there, I believe in the Iowa Markets "proxy" for a poll the most.  While "betting" or "investing" on ideas has it's own problems, I think it is always easier to trust the stated opinions of people who "put their money where their mouth is" rather than just flap their gums (like I am here).   I'd be curious if there were psychological analysis of the Iowa Market's process.   I *don't* believe it represents a simple and pure and clean "free market".  I do believe people are mixing their honest beliefs in the outcome of the election (in this case) with their wishful or fearful thinking. 

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