Re: The Theory That Would Not Die -
Posted by
Russ Abbott on
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/The-Theory-That-Would-Not-Die-tp6662528p6662686.html
When I read that review it wasn't obvious to me how he got the result that he did for the counterfeit coin example. So I worked it out for myself--and after a bit of thinking about it got the same answer. If you're interested it's here. (Let me know if you think I made any mistakes.) The calculation is at the bottom of the Bayes Theorem page on my wiki.
-- Russ Abbott
_____________________________________________ On Sun, Aug 7, 2011 at 2:41 PM, Tom Johnson
<[hidden email]> wrote:
A review of a new book that may be of interest.
--tom johnson
The Mathematics of Changing Your Mind
By JOHN ALLEN PAULOS
Published: August 5, 2011
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne introduces Bayes’s theorem in her new book with a remark by John Maynard Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?”
Bayes’s theorem, named after the 18th-century Presbyterian minister Thomas Bayes, addresses this selfsame essential task: How should we modify our beliefs in the light of additional information? Do we cling to old assumptions long after they’ve become untenable, or abandon them too readily at the first whisper of doubt? Bayesian reasoning promises to bring our views gradually into line with reality and so has become an invaluable tool for scientists of all sorts and, indeed, for anyone who wants, putting it grandiloquently, to sync up with the universe. If you are not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be.
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============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at
http://www.friam.org