Posted by
Phil Henshaw-2 on
Apr 28, 2008; 3:13pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Welcome-Jim-tp526087p526136.html
Marcus,
The 'symptom' I was referring to was being caught flat footed without a
model to warn you about the approach of major environmental change. You
offered the solution of developing a model that you should have had before
you knew it was needed. It appears to violate the direction of time??
I guess what I'm talking about is that the 'bubbles in our minds' are
different from the 'bubbles in the world'... For the physical systems we
fail to understand there is nothing for us to 'see'. That's always a
problem. I think that closely watching for the classic patterns of
discrepancy between the world full of otherwise invisible bubbles and our
models is possible. It may be imperfect but a vast improvement on not
looking at all. What do you think of that?
Phil
> Behalf Of Marcus G. Daniels
> Sent: Saturday, April 26, 2008 3:08 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] recap on Rosen
>
> phil henshaw wrote:
> > No, that does not work at all. Patching together a model to suite a
> symptom
> > in retrospect does not help you with being ready for unexpected
> eventfulness
> > in nature that you previously had no idea that you should be looking
> for.
> >
> Never said anything about symptoms. I did suggest maybe you ought to
> plan on measuring something in particular to see if models (whether
> your
> own or those you are interpreting) are consistent with reality in a
> statistically meaningful way. You can posit whatever driving events or
> processes you want in-silco. A comet striking the earth, people
> selling
> their organs to increase the profit margins of the companies, the
> importance of prophets in collective decision making, or whatever..
>
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