Posted by
Phil Henshaw-2 on
Apr 26, 2008; 1:47pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Welcome-Jim-tp526087p526122.html
Ok, 'find a function' assumes there is one to find, but the problem set is
running into behavior which has already had major consequences (like
starvation for 100million people because of an unexpected world food price
level shift) and the question is what 'function' would you use to not be
caught flat footed like that. Is there some general function to use in
cases where you have no function and don't even know what the problem
definition will be?
I actually have a very good one, but you won't like it because it means
using the models to understand what they fail to describe rather than the
usual method of using them to represent other things.
Phil Henshaw???????????????????
??? ????.?? ? `?.????
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave NY NY 10040? tel: 212-795-4844?????
e-mail: pfh at synapse9.com?????explorations: www.synapse9.com??
?in the last 200 years the amount of change that once needed a century?of
thought now takes just five weeks?
> -----Original Message-----
> From: friam-bounces at redfish.com [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On
> Behalf Of Marcus G. Daniels
> Sent: Saturday, April 26, 2008 12:36 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] recap on Rosen
>
> phil henshaw wrote:
> > Glen wrote:
> >
> >> I believe so. At least 1/2 of the solution to any problem lies in a
> >> good formulation of the problem. And in that sense, being able to
> >> state
> >> (as precisely as possible) which closures are maintained in which
> >> context and which closures are broken in which context, therefore,
> >> contributes immensely to the solution.
> >>
> >
> > [ph] the requirement is that your model describe new behavior of
> independent
> > organisms or communities things you have no information about because
> they
> > never occurred before. What's the modeling strategy for that?
> >
> Find a function that well describes a state of a thing or aggregate
> measurement of interest at t - 2 that gives the state at t - 1 that
> gives a state at t. Then prediction is a matter of applying the
> function more times. Add more functions to describe more individual
> things or aggregates and note when there are shared functions in those
> definitions (e.g. food web fundamentally depends photosynthesis).
>
> If you want to define all things to be independent, then there is no
> point in talking about interactions -- you've already defined away the
> possibility of that! Covariance is zero.
>
> Marcus
>
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