Overshoot self-correction to collapse in the S&P 500Mar-Aug 07

Posted by Marcus G. Daniels on
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Overshoot-self-correction-to-collapse-in-the-S-P-500-Mar-Aug-07-tp524586p524604.html

sy at synapse9.com wrote:
> Well, the counter example shows no systemicity at all, so perfectly well behaved.  Markets are not supposd to display, as the example, emergent systemicity of any kind, let alone dramatic self-destructive behavior....
>  
I suggest you get a time series trading dataset and state exactly what
you think the dynamic signature is and what you think it is caused by.  
Then filter the data down to periods at and after a finite period after
those causes (e.g. news events), and look for the signature for a finite
period of time within which you posit the signature should occur.    Do
the same for all other times and see how often the signature occurs,
taking care not to double count overlapping periods, which could easily
if you defined the signature to merely occur `someday'.   You should see
enrichment of the signature to the cause.    If you see it for both the
`caused' and `non-caused' periods, then all you have is a story.

Marcus