Posted by
Phil Henshaw-3 on
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Overshoot-self-correction-to-collapse-in-the-S-P-500-Mar-Aug-07-tp524586.html
What's it look like to you?
The price swings in the S&P 500 over the last 4 months seem to display
the natural complex system self-controls of the financial system
'fishtailing' to the point of failure. I've been talking about seeing
that in the decision making about future energy sources as well. I
think this type of systemic failure is generally the consequence of
pushing self-correction mechanisms beyond their response limits.
Trying to respond to each other too little and too late amplifies and
leads to all failing at once. I don't know how to measure that
directly, but observe the same system physics operating as in many other
dynamic disordering cascades like the onset of turbulence in flows, and
draw the conclusion from that.
[in case you notice, I label the downward overshoots as occurring at the
top of the cycle, as they should be, because the overshoots are in the
rates of change]
Link to latest quote:
http://channels.netscape.com/pf/chart_quote.jsp?TickerSymbols=%24INX<
http://channels.netscape.com/pf/chart_quote.jsp?TickerSymbols=%24INX&time=6&ctype=hloc> &time=6&ctype=hloc
In response you want to think of it as stabilizing the pumps that are
going out of control. You want to relieve the pressures by turning off
the pumps, and really hope someone takes a whole systems point of view
toward seeing what's next.
smaller image -
http://www.synapse9.com/issues/S<
http://www.synapse9.com/issues/S&PmovementsAug07-Sm.jpg>
&PmovementsAug07-Sm.jpg
larger image - <
http://www.synapse9.com/issues/S&PmovementsAug07-L.jpg>
http://www.synapse9.com/issues/S&PmovementsAug07-L.jpgPhil Henshaw ????.?? ? `?.????
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