Posted by
glen ep ropella on
Jun 27, 2007; 6:20pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Article-on-Epstein-tp524125p524130.html
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1
Richard Harris wrote:
> I've seen models which could require hundreds of pages to fully describe
> and required massive supercomputers to run. At the end of they day, if
> you can't explain something, what's the point?
This is an excellent point and is the primary cause for much angst and
hand-wringing (as well as pompous diatribes about things like parsimony,
over-parameterization, validation and verification, etc.) in the
simulation community.
At the end of the day, there's only one reason to develop models: to
help you think. Models do not predict, explain, or describe (or any
other verb) the real world. _People_ predict, explain, and describe.
Models are like rocks or trees. They're just more stuff meandering
about in the ambient goo around us. As such, I (a person believe it or
not ;-) can use a rock to predict some phenomenon. Or I can use a model
to predict some phenomenon.
So, the basic answer to your question: "If you can't explain something,
what's the point?" Well, the point has to be derived from whoever is
using the model. If the person is attempting to explain something with
a model, then if the model doesn't help the _person_ explain that thing,
then it's a misuse of the model. Likewise, if a person is attempting to
predict something with a model and the model doesn't help the person
predict anything, then it's a misuse of the model.
Models are thinking tools, nothing more nor less.
- --
glen e. p. ropella, 971-219-3846,
http://tempusdictum.com... given any rule, however "fundamental" or "necessary" for science,
there are always circumstances when it is advisable not only to ignore
the rule, but to adopt its opposite. -- Paul Feyerabend
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.6 (GNU/Linux)
Comment: Using GnuPG with Mozilla -
http://enigmail.mozdev.orgiD8DBQFGgqpmZeB+vOTnLkoRAuVmAJ4hZzBX+wwOJQ/YOnF3pfQQRBBXnQCg2Cnb
cDL+pDzThosA0DZbClzFpII=
=/9bE
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----