Posted by
Phil Henshaw-2 on
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/One-of-my-projects-tp523632p523637.html
Ok, I'll try another approach. I looked into EpiSims a little. It
really does seem like a fully formed modeling environment for how we
think epidemics propagate. It's missing the scientific reality
component though, the step of identifying how what we think is
*different from* reality. That comparison is just not there that I
could see. One of the obvious problems is that the old method of
classical mechanics does not work at all for complex systems. This
kind of modeling simply does not describe reality as following
mathematical curves anymore, so recording the shapes of nature's curves
and adjusting formulas to fit them no longer helps to validate our best
models. Still, don't you need some sort of method of a) validation of
results and b) finding patterns in the discrepancy in the results found?
Phil Henshaw ????.?? ? `?.????
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave
NY NY 10040
tel: 212-795-4844
e-mail: pfh at synapse9.com
explorations: www.synapse9.com <
http://www.synapse9.com/>
-----Original Message-----
From:
[hidden email] [mailto:
[hidden email]] On Behalf Of
Douglas Roberts
Sent: Monday, April 02, 2007 11:54 AM
To: Phil Henshaw; The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] One of my projects
Well, ok.
1. I have no idea what an "active management point of view" means.
2. An epidemic is not an agent. The epidemic is the emergent
behavior of the system in response to a pathogen being introduced into
the population of agents (people, it this case) in the system being
simulated.
3. I have no idea what "exploiting the passive resource of
infection pathways" means.
Phil, I strongly recommend that before you invest much more time asking
questions about agent based models and their use that you actually build
one yourself. And then run it. Until then, I suspect your ability
understand the basic underlying principles of ABM technology will be
somewhat limited.
--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
droberts at rti.org
doug at parrot-farm.net
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
On 4/2/07, Phil Henshaw <sy at synapse9.com> wrote:
Not sure what happened to my last post to try to clarify the question,
but
another thought occurred to me this AM
Maybe a way to look at an epidemic from the active management point of
view,
and an epidemic as an autonomous agent itself, is to consider it as
exploiting the passive resource of infection pathways in a community.
Any
particular epidemic may be using the familiar ones, or some unfamiliar
ones.
It may discover new ones in the course of events. The question is
how to
use models to help people a) identify the interruptible links in the
pathways an epidemic is exploiting?, and b) how to tell when the
epidemic
has changed to exploit some new unseen pathway that a new intervention
strategy will be needed for?
--
Phil Henshaw ????.?? ? `?.????
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave
NY NY 10040
tel: 212-795-4844
e-mail: sy at synapse9.com
explorations: www.synapse9.com
Re: [FRIAM] One of my projects
Douglas Roberts
Sat, 31 Mar 2007 09:05:26 -0800
Phil,
I did read your question, repeated below:
Cool, do you include any comparative natural system component? Perhaps
working with better ways to identify system structures in natural
systems
and early signs of when they are inventing new ones would be helpful in
developing tests for models that approximate the complexity of nature.
However, I found it to be sufficiently ambiguous that I had absolutely
no
idea what was being asked, and thus found myself at a complete loss for
a
response.
--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
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