Posted by
Sudhira H S-2 on
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/On-Emergence-and-Decision-Making-in-Complex-Systems-tp521791p521801.html
Thanks Stephen and Jochen for the quick responses. I think Jochen got
my question right!
I have checked the Flocking and Termites model. By way of looking for
emergence, are we restricting only to symmetry breaking and pattern
formations? Isn't emergence about a continuum of both for any given
complex system?
All right, I understand that we have limited cognitive abilities. In
fact we are not wired for that. Robin M. Hogarth has done some similar
work in the sense that there are about 30 judgemental errors and
biases we normally make. You may be interested in his work:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0471914797/002-2052677-8240030?v=glance&n=283155(I haven't read the book, though I know his work is very relevant).
Judgemental errors and biases also extend the idea of bounded
rationality.
There are two key points you state while discussing on Dietrich
Doerner's book: One is that our modelling capabilities are limited.
And this is never complete. Yes of course. And hence one has to also
rely on "common sense". The second fact that Simulations can really
help. Of course, simulations has come in handy for generating
different scenarios / outcomes of a same system. Here we would still
forcing in our biases based on the mental models we construct for the
problem. Yet, ABM allows us to reasonably emulate some of these
systems.
Somewhere down the line, my problem was how in
multi-objective/multiple stakeholder situations, management decisions
can be taken from a planning and decision-making perspective at an
operational level towards achieving an "expected" outcome. When
systems are complex enough, the emergent phenomenon need not be the
"expected" outcome.
I shall look into the papers you sent and then get back.
Thanks and Regards,
Sudhira
On 5/12/06, Jochen Fromm <fromm at vs.uni-kassel.de> wrote:
>
> I guess what you are interested in the management aspect:
> what do you do as a manager if you are faced with a complex system
> in a concrete real-world situation, and how do you find the
> right decision to manage a complex system. You might be
> interested in Dietrich Doerner's book "The Logic of Failure -
> Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations".
> Doerner is a Germany psychology professor, and his
> recommendations for the right decisions are simple.
> We should be aware that our cognitive models are wrong and our
> thinking shortsighted: "An individual's reality model can be right
> or wrong, complete or incomplete. As a rule it will be both incomplete
> and wrong, and one would do well to keep that probability in mind."
>
> Doerner further argues that there is no standard solution, silver
> bullet or one-size-fits-all solution in many comlex situtations,
> because every complex situation is different (complexity has many
> varieties, but simplicity has a unified form). Our ordinary common
> sense is probably the best tool we have to solve complex problems.
>
> Finally he recommends the use of simulations and suitable models
> in order to deal with complex systems. This is especially recommendable
> for systems with a high probability of emergent properties. It is of
> course important to find the right level of detail, too little details
> means oversimplification, too much details means the model is too
> complex and one easily drowns in data.
>
> The answer of Stephen is interesting. Do all examples of
> emergence involve some form of spontaneous symmetry breaking ?
> If you think of emergence as a process of pattern formation,
> then the new pattern obviously breaks the symmetry that existed
> before the pattern appeared. Yet often for every symmetry that
> is broken a new symmetry seems to appear.
>
> The classical examples for swarm formation and swarm
> intelligence are flocking and (ant) foraging, respectively.
> Further popular examples are pile building termites
> (if you find a chip then pick it up unless you're already
> carrying a chip in which case drop it), Langton's ant
> and Schelling's segregation model.
>
> Can you find a symmetry breaking in all these examples ?
> Probably yes, but one can find often both, a symmetry
> breaking and a symmetry making at the same time.
> A shoal of fish for example may show more or less
> translational symmetry before the creation of the flock
> (in the disordered state), and rotational symmetry afterwards
> (in the ordered state, for instance in a spherical flock).
> The same argument applies to pile building termites:
> first the translational symmetry seems to be broken,
> and then a new local rotational symmetry appears in
> for of spherical heaps, see
>
http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Termites>
> -J.
>
>
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