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May 05, 2003; 4:26am
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Bonabeau-article-tp518401p518412.html
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Bonabeau articleIntuition is inevitable!!!
=20
Even as I agree with Bonabeau that more informed analysis makes for =
better understanding of the problem (hence better decisions and better =
"intuition"), the problem of modeling associated intuition remains. =20
=20
Any model is not a full representation of reality on a computer, but =
some approximation of that reality in way that captures essential =
features of the phenomenon in question. Model building is an art where =
one exercises judgment and intuition in selecting which problem features =
are relevant. When I am building a model of swinging pendulum, I apply =
Newton's first and second law, but not his third, Maxwell's laws, the =
laws of heat transfer, relativity or quantum mechanics even though they =
due play a part (albeit an insignificant one to the questions I am =
trying to answer). I can make well justified choices about which =
physical laws are relevant to my model. I may also be able to estimate =
the errors incurred by ignoring those other laws. =20
=20
Agent bases models with their tightly coupled nonlinear interaction =
amplify those modeling errors and choices. Furthermore, in the absence =
of a finite set of possible choices of model features (like the physical =
laws in the above example), the modeler relies to a much greater degree =
on his intuition. He has to make many decisions in the absence of =
essential information and an understanding of what he maybe ignoring. I =
am not even aware if somebody has tried to even suggest a methodology =
for building ABMs for businesses. Maybe Ethnographers and =
Anthropologists have something to say here. Often in a consulting =
situation were ABMs are built, very little model verification is carried =
out. A disaster might be in the making if important strategic decisions =
are made based on unverified ABMs.=20
=20
Optimizers also often exploit modeling errors. When I was starting my =
PhD optimizing wing shapes for BAE systems, my GA would often produce =
wing shapes seemed optimal yet they were right of the boundary of where =
the CFD code is known to produce unreliable results (I was using VSAero =
panel code at the time). I have seen this often phenomena repeated in =
other engineering design problems. Often, if you had a new simulation =
model that you want to test to breaking point, run it through an =
optimizer.=20
=20
In the absence of sound methodologies for modeling business process and =
of verification tools, intuition will continue to play a very important =
part in model building. Criticisms about putting too much faith in =
intuition will also hold for such sophisticated computer models. One can =
even argue that intuitively built computer models can be far more =
dangerous when combined with false sense of security and a lack of =
understanding of the model limitations.=20
=20
Mohammed=20
__________________________________________________
[hidden email] http://www.optomatica.com =20
mobile: +20 (10) 191 6650
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Robert Holmes=20
To:
[hidden email]=20
Sent: Sunday, May 04, 2003 5:02 AM
Subject: [FRIAM] Bonabeau article
The May 2003 Harvard Business Review has an article by Eric Bonabeau =
"Don't Trust your Gut". It describes how the latest decision-support =
tools (agent-based model, genetic programs, the usual suspects) are best =
used to complement (rather than replace) executives' intuitions.
I've got a PDF version of this article so if anyone wants a copy, =
email me.=20
Robert=20
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<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Bonabeau article</TITLE>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
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</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Intuition is=20
inevitable!!!<?xml:namespace prefix =3D o ns =3D=20
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Even as I agree with =
Bonabeau that=20
more informed analysis makes for better understanding of the problem =
(hence=20
better decisions and better =93intuition=94), the problem of modeling =
associated=20
intuition remains. <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Any model is not a full=20
representation of reality on a computer, but some approximation of that =
reality=20
in way that captures essential features of the phenomenon in question. =
Model=20
building is an art where one exercises judgment and intuition in =
selecting which=20
problem features are relevant. When I am building a model of swinging =
pendulum,=20
I apply Newton=92s first and second law, but not his third, Maxwell=92s =
laws, the=20
laws of heat transfer, relativity or quantum mechanics even though they =
due play=20
a part (albeit an insignificant one to the questions I am trying to =
answer). I=20
can make well justified choices about which physical laws are relevant =
to my=20
model. I may also be able to estimate the errors incurred by ignoring =
those=20
other laws. <SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Agent bases models with =
their=20
tightly coupled nonlinear interaction amplify those modeling errors and =
choices.=20
Furthermore, in the absence of a finite set of possible choices of model =
features (like the physical laws in the above example), the modeler =
relies to a=20
much greater degree on his intuition. He has to make many decisions in =
the=20
absence of essential information and an understanding of what he maybe =
ignoring.=20
I am not even aware if somebody has tried to even suggest a methodology =
for=20
building ABMs for businesses. Maybe Ethnographers and Anthropologists =
have=20
something to say here. Often in a consulting situation were ABMs are =
built, very=20
little model verification is carried out. A disaster might be in the =
making if=20
important strategic decisions are made based on unverified ABMs.=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Optimizers also often =
exploit=20
modeling errors. When I was starting my PhD optimizing wing shapes for =
BAE=20
systems, my GA would often produce wing shapes seemed optimal yet they =
were=20
right of the boundary of where the CFD code is known to produce =
unreliable=20
results (I was using VSAero panel code at the time). <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I have seen this often =
phenomena repeated=20
in other engineering design problems. Often, if you had a new simulation =
model=20
that you want to test to breaking point, run it through an optimizer.=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In the absence of sound=20
methodologies for modeling business process and of verification tools, =
intuition=20
will continue to play a very important part in model building. =
Criticisms about=20
putting too much faith in intuition will also hold for such =
sophisticated=20
computer models. One can even argue that intuitively built computer =
models can=20
be far more dangerous when combined with false sense of security and a =
lack of=20
understanding of the model limitations. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Mohammed </SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">__________________________________________________<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:
[hidden email]">
[hidden email]</A> =
<A=20
href=3D"
http://www.optomatica.com">
http://www.optomatica.com</A> =
<BR>mobile:=20
+20 (10) 191 6650</SPAN></P></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=
[hidden email] =
href=3D"mailto:
[hidden email]">Robert=20
Holmes</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=
[hidden email]=20
href=3D"mailto:
[hidden email]">
[hidden email]</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, May 04, 2003 5:02 =
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [FRIAM] Bonabeau =
article</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><!-- Converted from text/rtf format -->
<P><FONT face=3D"Trebuchet MS" size=3D2>The May 2003 Harvard Business =
Review has=20
an article by Eric Bonabeau "Don't Trust your Gut". It describes how =
the=20
latest decision-support tools (agent-based model, genetic programs, =
the usual=20
suspects) are best used to complement (rather than replace) =
executives'=20
intuitions.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Trebuchet MS" size=3D2>I've got a PDF version of this =
article so=20
if anyone wants a copy, email me.</FONT> </P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Trebuchet MS" size=3D2>Robert</FONT>=20
</P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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